Machine learning improves official statistics but needs rigorous validation.
problem Lack of methodological robustness in machine learning for official statistics.
method Total Machine Learning Error (TMLE) framework to validate ML models.
result TMLE addresses representativeness and measurement errors in ML models.
Bias correction needed after deep learning regression training.
problem Systematic error accumulation in deep learning regression models.
method Adjust bias of the machine learning model post-training.
result Bias correction efficiently solves error accumulation.
Context: Conducting experiments is central to research machine learning research to benchmark, evaluate and compare learning algorithms. Consequently it is important we conduct reliable, trustworthy experiments. Objective: We investigate the incidence of errors in a sample of machine learning experiments in the domain …
We consider the problem of distributed statistical machine learning in adversarial settings, where some unknown and time-varying subset of working machines may be compromised and behave arbitrarily to prevent an accurate model from being learned. This setting captures the potential adversarial attacks faced by Federate…
LSTM Networks accurately forecast COVID-19 cases in Turkey with lower error than other methods.
problem Forecasting total COVID-19 cases in Turkey using machine learning.
method Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) Networks for forecasting.
result LSTM Networks outperform other methods in forecasting accuracy.
Study evaluates 13 CI methods for generalization error across 19 problems.
problem Evaluating prediction model quality using confidence intervals for generalization error.
method Compared 13 CI methods on 19 tabular regression and classification problems using cross-validation and bootstrapping.
result Identified a subset of methods with good coverage, width, and runtime.
Machine learning model predicts DFT total energy to complete basis set limit.
problem Finding a model to extrapolate DFT calculations to complete basis set limit.
method Quantile-random-forest model trained on binary solids data.
result Random-forest model achieves <25% symmetric MAPE for both DFT codes.
The accuracy of machine learning systems is a widely studied research topic. Established techniques such as cross-validation predict the accuracy on unseen data of the classifier produced by applying a given learning method to a given training data set. However, they do not predict whether incurring the cost of obtaini…
New online learning algorithm combines PA and TER for binary classification.
problem Binary classification with non-separable data and data imbalance.
method Online Passive-Aggressive (PA) and Total-Error-Rate (TER) learning combined into PATER algorithm.
result PATER algorithms outperform existing online learning algorithms in efficiency and effectiveness.
This paper studies generalization in machine learning with mixture data.
problem Generalization performance and statistical rates in heterogeneous data.
method Characterization of heterogeneity via pairwise total variation distance, analysis of Rademacher and Gaussian complexities.
result The requirement on heterogeneity increases as function classes get more complex.
Paper studies statistical properties of DP data synthesis algorithms based on Bayesian networks.
problem Ensuring differential privacy in synthetic data generation for high-dimensional data.
method Introduces random noise to low-dimensional marginals of a probabilistic graphical model (BN) to achieve differential privacy.
result Establishes a rigorous accuracy guarantee for BN-based DP synthetic data generators using total variation (TV) distance.
Algorithm selection and hyperparameter tuning remain two of the most challenging tasks in machine learning. Automated machine learning (AutoML) seeks to automate these tasks to enable widespread use of machine learning by non-experts. This paper introduces OBOE, a collaborative filtering method for time-constrained mod…
In distributed statistical learning, N samples are split across m machines and a learner wishes to use minimal communication to learn as well as if the examples were on a single machine. This model has received substantial interest in machine learning due to its scalability and potential for parallel speedup. Howev…
This paper compares machine learning methods for recognizing lane change intentions from vehicle trajectories.
problem Accurately detecting and predicting lane change processes in autonomous vehicles.
method Comparison of different machine learning methods on high-dimensional time series data.
result Ensemble methods reduce Type II and Type III classification errors, while LightGBM outperforms XGBoost in training efficiency.
The paper proves impossibilities and positive results for universal machine translation.
problem Learning shared sentence representations across multiple language pairs.
method Formal proofs and analysis of natural generative processes.
result Lower bound on translation error and positive results under natural structure.
The total variation distance is a core statistical distance between probability measures that satisfies the metric axioms, with value always falling in [0,1]. This distance plays a fundamental role in machine learning and signal processing: It is a member of the broader class of f-divergences, and it is related to …
Example shows learnable distributions not privately learnable.
problem Learnable distributions under non-private conditions not transferable to differential privacy.
method Example of a distribution class learnable up to constant error in total variation distance but not under differential privacy.
result Contradicts conjecture of Ashtiani on learnability under differential privacy.
Characterizing the phase transitions of convex optimizations in recovering structured signals or data is of central importance in compressed sensing, machine learning and statistics. The phase transitions of many convex optimization signal recovery methods such as ℓ1 minimization and nuclear norm minimization are…
Infinitesimal gradient boosting is a new algorithm derived from gradient boosting.
problem Improving the efficiency and smoothness of gradient boosting.
method Introduced a new class of randomized regression trees and used a limit process in vanishing-learning-rate asymptotic.
result Convergence of the stochastic algorithm and characterization of the limiting procedure as a unique solution of a nonlinear ODE.
This work bounds classification error in machine learning for low Bayes error conditions.
problem Understanding the error mismatch between Bayes error and model-based classification error.
method Applying classification error bounds to study the relationship with Kullback-Leibler divergence and proposing a linear approximation for low Bayes error conditions.
result A linear approximation of the classification error bound for low Bayes error conditions is proposed.
The paper predicts U.S. nonfarm employment using machine learning.
problem Predicting deviations from expected U.S. nonfarm employment.
method Extracted predictive features from aggregated payroll data, trained machine learning models.
result Trained models show excellent performance with R2 of 0.9985 and 99.99% directional accuracy.
Improved prediction of soil parameters using Multi-target Stacked Generalisation on EDXRF spectra.
problem Challenges in predicting multiple soil parameters accurately from EDXRF spectra.
method Multi-target Stacked Generalisation (MTSG) method combining multiple regression models.
result MTSG significantly improved prediction accuracy for multiple soil parameters, reducing average error from 0.67 to 0.64.
A new method predicts electron density accurately from atom-centered models.
problem Predicting electron density accurately from atom-centered models.
method Gradient-based approach to minimize loss function in an optimized sparse feature space.
result Extremely accurate predictions of electron density and total energies.
We propose a fair principal component analysis method that balances reconstruction error and subgroup fairness.
problem Fairness and robustness in principal component analysis for consequential domains.
method Distributionally robust optimization over the Stiefel manifold with a Riemannian subgradient descent.
result The proposed method achieves better performance on real-world datasets compared to state-of-the-art baselines.
New bounds on machine learning model generalization error moments.
problem Understanding the performance of machine learning models.
method Information-theoretic bounds on the moments of the generalization error of learning algorithms.
result Proposed bounds on generalization error moments and their high-probability bounds.
AI-assisted heart disease diagnosis reduces misdiagnosis and saves lives.
problem Misdiagnosis of heart disease leads to unnecessary deaths.
method Developed an AI application using ML and DNN algorithms on a dataset from the Cleveland Clinic Foundation.
result DNN model achieved a 92% accuracy rate, reducing misdiagnosis.
Learning sparse combinations is a frequent theme in machine learning. In this paper, we study its associated optimization problem in the distributed setting where the elements to be combined are not centrally located but spread over a network. We address the key challenges of balancing communication costs and optimizat…
Dynamic tracking error framework shows similar performance but varying volatility across different constraints.
problem Differences in governance parameters between Total Portfolio Approach and Strategic Asset Allocation.
method Portfolio simulations using U.S. equity and bond data from 2000 to 2026, spanning 2004 to 2026.
result Realized tracking error volatility varies 12-fold across different constraints, with costs highest during crises.
We study the tradeoff between the statistical error and communication cost of distributed statistical estimation problems in high dimensions. In the distributed sparse Gaussian mean estimation problem, each of the m machines receives n data points from a d-dimensional Gaussian distribution with unknown mean θ w…
Error estimates found between SGD with momentum and Langevin diffusion.
problem Quantifying the difference between SGD with momentum and Langevin diffusion.
method Established error estimates using 1-Wasserstein and total variation distances.
result Quantitative error estimates between SGD with momentum and underdamped Langevin diffusion.
Modified training direction reduces generalization error in neural networks.
problem Reducing generalization error in neural networks.
method Theoretical analysis of modified natural gradient descent in function space.
result Modifying training direction in function space reduces total generalization error.
New measures quantify dependence between variables without distribution estimation.
problem Measuring dependence between variables in arbitrary dimensions.
method Proposed matrix-based normalized total correlation and dual total correlation measures.
result Measures are differentiable and statistically more powerful than existing methods.
We study the relationship between catastrophic forgetting and properties of task sequences. In particular, given a sequence of tasks, we would like to understand which properties of this sequence influence the error rates of continual learning algorithms trained on the sequence. To this end, we propose a new procedure …
New method uses machine learning to optimize Fourier pricing methods.
problem Difficulty in tuning parameters for Fourier pricing methods.
method Learning tuning parameters of Fourier methods using machine learning.
result Very fast algorithms with full error control.
Estimates parameters of interconnected linear systems using total variation penalization.
problem Joint estimation of parameters in interconnected linear dynamical systems.
method Total variation penalized least-squares estimator.
result The MSE goes to zero as the number of systems increases, even with constant trajectory length.
Experiment shows author rankings can improve peer review scores.
problem Improving accuracy in machine learning conference peer review.
method Used Isotonic Mechanism to calibrate review scores using author rankings.
result Calibrated scores outperform raw scores in estimating ground truth review scores.
New findings show score matching's accuracy doesn't ensure numerical stability in diffusion sampling.
problem Numerical stability issues in diffusion sampling despite small forward-marginal error.
method Constructing a smooth score field with arbitrarily small forward-marginal L2 error, showing nonexplosive behavior and moments of every order. result Euler--Maruyama discretizations can converge in probability even when moments diverge, demonstrating failure of weak convergence.
Paper predicts future sales using machine learning techniques.
problem Predict future sales of retail products using past data.
method Used eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) and Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) for forecasting.
result XGBoost performed better than LSTM in predicting sales.
The paper connects three machine learning methods to reduce generalization errors.
problem Reducing generalization errors in machine learning models.
method Distributionally robust optimization, Bayesian methods, and regularization.
result Machine learning models can be characterized using distributional uncertainty and robustness measures.
Improved error estimate for SGLD sampling algorithm.
problem Establishing a precise error bound for SGLD.
method Sharp uniform-in-time error estimate for SGLD under mild assumptions.
result Uniform-in-time O(η2) bound for KL-divergence between SGLD and Langevin diffusion. Extends phase retrieval methods to handle sensing vector errors.
problem Phase retrieval with errors in sensing vectors.
method Total Least Squares (TLS) framework applied to gradient descent.
result Gradient descent can efficiently solve TLS phase retrieval.
We analyze how kernel machines and neural networks learn different frequency modes of the target function as data size increases.
problem Understanding how kernel machines and neural networks learn different frequency modes of the target function as data size increases.
method Theoretical methods from Gaussian processes and statistical physics, combined with simulations on synthetic data and MNIST dataset.
result Kernel machines and neural networks fit successively higher spectral modes of the target function as the size of the training set grows.
Study on error probabilities of machine learning classification techniques using large deviations theory.
problem Performance analysis of machine learning binary classification techniques.
method Large deviations theory applied to Data-Driven Decision Function (D3F) for error probability analysis.
result Classification error probabilities vanish exponentially, with an asymptotic formula providing precise error rate estimates.
Nonlinear MCMC improves Bayesian machine learning sampling.
problem Sampling problems in Bayesian machine learning.
method Nonlinear MCMC technique with convergence guarantees.
result Improves sampling in Bayesian neural networks.
New approach uses interpolation models and error bounds for verifiable scientific machine learning.
problem Challenges in verifying and validating modern scientific machine learning workflows.
method Combines multiple standard interpolation techniques with error bounds for efficient computation and comparative performance analysis.
result Error bounds for interpolation techniques can be computed or estimated efficiently, aiding in validation goals.
Unlike traditional programs (such as operating systems or word processors) which have large amounts of code, machine learning tasks use programs with relatively small amounts of code (written in machine learning libraries), but voluminous amounts of data. Just like developers of traditional programs debug errors in the…
Study proposes local effective dimension to measure model capacity and generalization error.
problem Capturing the generalization power of machine learning models.
method Proposes local effective dimension as a capacity measure.
result Local effective dimension bounds the generalization error and correlates well with it.
Bayesian framework improves robustness in nonlinear regression models.
problem Measurement error, model misspecification, and distributional misspecification in regression analyses.
method Joint Dirichlet process prior on latent covariate-response distribution, updating with posterior pseudo-samples.
result Improved stability and consistency in estimators under increasing measurement error.