CSTN predicts taxi demand between all regions, overcoming origin-only approaches.
problem Predicting taxi demand between all regions, not just origins.
method Contextualized Spatial-Temporal Network (CSTN) with LSC, TEC, and GCC modules.
result CSTN outperforms other methods in taxi origin-destination demand prediction.
Taxi demand prediction is an important building block to enabling intelligent transportation systems in a smart city. An accurate prediction model can help the city pre-allocate resources to meet travel demand and to reduce empty taxis on streets which waste energy and worsen the traffic congestion. With the increasing…
Paper predicts urban dispersal events using deep survival analysis on mobility data.
problem Predicting abnormal dispersal events in urban areas to mitigate congestion and safety risks.
method Formulated as a survival analysis problem, developed a two-stage deep learning framework (DILSA).
result DILSA predicts dispersal events with F1-score of 0.7 and average time error of 18 minutes.
Accurate taxi demand-supply forecasting is a challenging application of ITS (Intelligent Transportation Systems), due to the complex spatial and temporal patterns. We investigate the impact of different spatial partitioning techniques on the prediction performance of an LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory) network, in the con…
In this paper, we investigate the significance of choosing an appropriate tessellation strategy for a spatio-temporal taxi demand-supply modeling framework. Our study compares (i) the variable-sized polygon based Voronoi tessellation, and (ii) the fixed-sized grid based Geohash tessellation, using taxi demand-supply GP…
A new approach switches between simple and complex models to handle concept drifts in regression tasks.
problem Handling concept drifts in regression models to maintain accurate predictions over time.
method Error Intersection Approach: switches between simple and complex models based on drift detection.
result The Error Intersection Approach significantly outperforms baselines in handling concept drifts in a real-world taxi demand dataset.
Accurate time-series forecasting is vital for numerous areas of application such as transportation, energy, finance, economics, etc. However, while modern techniques are able to explore large sets of temporal data to build forecasting models, they typically neglect valuable information that is often available under the…
In this paper, we develop a reinforcement learning (RL) based system to learn an effective policy for carpooling that maximizes transportation efficiency so that fewer cars are required to fulfill the given amount of trip demand. For this purpose, first, we develop a deep neural network model, called ST-NN (Spatio-Temp…
Study improves cross-modal bike-share and transit demand prediction.
problem Cross-modal ripple effects in urban transportation demand.
method Transfer learning and stacked LSTM models for cross-modal demand prediction.
result Transfer learning models outperform unimodal models in cross-modal demand prediction.
A key problem in location-based modeling and forecasting lies in identifying suitable spatial and temporal resolutions. In particular, judicious spatial partitioning can play a significant role in enhancing the performance of location-based forecasting models. In this work, we investigate two widely used tessellation s…
Forecaster uses graph Transformers to forecast spatial and time-dependent data.
problem Complex spatial and temporal dependencies in data.
method Graph Transformer architecture with sparsification for spatial and temporal dependencies.
result Forecaster significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in taxi demand forecasting.
In building intelligent transportation systems such as taxi or rideshare services, accurate prediction of travel time and distance is crucial for customer experience and resource management. Using the NYC taxi dataset, which contains taxi trips data collected from GPS-enabled taxis [23], this paper investigates the use…
CONTINA provides adaptive confidence intervals for traffic demand prediction.
problem Uncertainty in future traffic demand predictions and the need for valid confidence intervals.
method Adaptive confidence interval method that adjusts based on deployment errors.
result Valid confidence intervals with shorter lengths and theoretical coverage guarantee.
Efficient sequential matching of supply and demand is a problem of interest in many online to offline services. For instance, Uber, Lyft, Grab for matching taxis to customers; Ubereats, Deliveroo, FoodPanda etc for matching restaurants to customers. In these online to offline service problems, individuals who are respo…
Real-time estimation of destination and travel time for taxis is of great importance for existing electronic dispatch systems. We present an approach based on trip matching and ensemble learning, in which we leverage the patterns observed in a dataset of roughly 1.7 million taxi journeys to predict the corresponding fi…
Ridesourcing platforms like Uber and Didi are getting more and more popular around the world. However, unauthorized ridesourcing activities taking advantages of the sharing economy can greatly impair the healthy development of this emerging industry. As the first step to regulate on-demand ride services and eliminate b…
This study predicts parking availability using multi-source data and a self-supervised learning enhanced transformer.
problem Accurate parking availability prediction to support urban planning and management.
method Proposes SST-iTransformer, a self-supervised learning enhanced spatio-temporal inverted transformer, integrating multi-source data.
result SST-iTransformer achieves state-of-the-art performance in parking availability prediction.
Model predicts passenger origin-destination for online taxi-hailing systems.
problem Predicting passenger origin-destination for efficient transportation planning.
method K-means clustering, non-negative matrix factorization, stacked recurrent neural network.
result Proposed model reduces MAPE by 5-7% for 1-hour windows and 14% for 30-minute windows.
Paper combines multiple ETA models into a stacked ensemble for better ETA predictions.
problem Improving ETA predictions for taxi schedules and trips.
method Developed a two-level stacked ensemble model and applied XAI methods to explain it.
result The stacked ensemble model outperforms previous ETA approaches.
Spatial-temporal prediction is a fundamental problem for constructing smart city, which is useful for tasks such as traffic control, taxi dispatching, and environmental policy making. Due to data collection mechanism, it is common to see data collection with unbalanced spatial distributions. For example, some cities ma…
The paper predicts travel times using tree-based ensembles.
problem Predicting travel times between urban points over short and long horizons.
method Tree-based ensemble methods trained on taxi trip records with additional features from weather and routing data.
result Adding routing data improves model performance and short-term predictions require less data.
Study validates method using taxi GPS data to monitor network performance.
problem Monitoring transportation network performance with limited data.
method Multi-agent inverse optimization method using taxi GPS probe data.
result Forecasted travel times correlate with observed travel times (0.23-0.56).
VerifAI toolkit improves neural network-based aircraft taxiing system safety.
problem Improving safety of autonomous aircraft taxiing systems using neural networks.
method Unified approach to formal analysis and retraining of AI systems, including falsification, debugging, and retraining.
result Improved neural network performance and reduced failure cases in aircraft taxiing system.
D-GAN predicts spatio-temporal data without explicit factor listing.
problem Challenges in predicting spatio-temporal data due to complexity, variability, and external factors.
method D-GAN uses a deep generative adversarial network to learn spatio-temporal correlations and variations implicitly.
result D-GAN outperforms traditional and deep learning methods in spatio-temporal prediction accuracy.
A new metric optimizes forecasts for lumpy, intermittent demand.
problem Inaccurate demand forecasts lead to suboptimal logistics and production.
method Developed a novel metric that considers both statistical and business aspects.
result The new metric yields more accurate predictions for lumpy and intermittent demand.
The paper evaluates different graph input representations for urban network analysis.
problem Challenges in analyzing urban networks due to their size and complexity.
method Design and evaluation of six graph input representations considering topological and temporal characteristics.
result Temporal information in graph input representations significantly improves model accuracy (RMSE of 1.42).
Heat demand prediction is a prominent research topic in the area of intelligent energy networks. It has been well recognized that periodicity is one of the important characteristics of heat demand. Seasonal-trend decomposition based on LOESS (STL) algorithm can analyze the periodicity of a heat demand series, and decom…
Modeling shared mobility demand considering supply limitations.
problem Inaccurate demand predictions due to limited supply.
method Censored Gaussian Processes for demand modeling.
result Taking supply limitations into account improves demand predictions.
Paper tackles learning win-win solutions in aggregation systems.
problem Learning approximate equilibrium solutions in aggregation systems to keep suppliers.
method Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL) with variance reduction mechanism.
result Approach reduces value variance and moves joint solution closer to Nash Equilibrium.
STG2Seq predicts multi-step passenger demand with graph and hierarchical structure.
problem Predicting passenger demand over multiple time horizons is challenging due to nonlinear and dynamic spatial-temporal dependencies.
method Proposes a graph-based model with a hierarchical graph convolutional structure to capture spatial and temporal correlations.
result Consistently outperforms baseline and state-of-the-art models on real-world datasets.
Study improves dynamic PT fleet optimization under noisy demand predictions.
problem Accurately predicting dynamic public transport demand for effective fleet management.
method Experimental case study in Copenhagen, using linear programming to optimize fleets.
result Optimized fleet performance is mainly affected by noise distribution skew and large errors.
Many economic applications including optimal pricing and inventory management requires prediction of demand based on sales data and estimation of sales reaction to a price change. There is a wide range of econometric approaches which are used to correct a bias in estimates of demand parameters on censored sales data. T…
Optimizes e-hailing drivers' passenger seeking to reduce congestion and pollution.
problem Reduces congestion and pollution by optimizing e-hailing drivers' passenger seeking.
method Uses Markov Decision Process (MDP) and imitation learning to model and optimize drivers' decisions.
result Achieves a 17.5% improvement in passenger return rate over a heuristic strategy.
This study develops an online predictive optimization framework for dynamically operating a transit service in an area of crowd movements. The proposed framework integrates demand prediction and supply optimization to periodically redesign the service routes based on recently observed demand. To predict demand for the …
The paper proposes a demand prediction model for e-commerce sites using machine learning and stacking.
problem Accurately predicting demand for products sold by multiple sellers at different prices.
method Applied different regression algorithms and stacked generalization for demand prediction.
result Stacked generalization produced almost as good results as individual machine learning methods.
Study estimates and predicts dynamic traffic OD flows for improved DTA models.
problem Estimating and predicting time-varying OD trip tables for dynamic traffic assignment.
method Bi-level optimisation for OD flow estimation and time series prediction for OD demand.
result High capability of proposed OD demand estimation method to reduce DTA model error.
Optimal scheduling of hydrogen production in dynamic pricing power market can maximize the profit of hydrogen producer; however, it highly depends on the accurate forecast of hydrogen consumption. In this paper, we propose a deep leaning based forecasting approach for predicting hydrogen consumption of fuel cell vehicl…
Proposes a new model to predict travel demand with zero-inflated and long-tail characteristics.
problem Sparse and long-tailed travel demand data with many zeros.
method Spatial-Temporal Tweedie Graph Neural Network (STTD) using Tweedie distribution.
result STTD provides accurate predictions and precise confidence intervals.
The paper addresses uncertainty in demand prediction for dynamic pricing.
problem Uncertainty quantification in the demand function for dynamic pricing.
method Developed a debiased approach to construct accurate confidence intervals for the demand function.
result Asymptotic normality guarantee of the debiased estimator for the demand function.
Predicting ambulance demand accurately at a fine resolution in time and space (e.g., every hour and 1 km2) is critical for staff / fleet management and dynamic deployment. There are several challenges: though the dataset is typically large-scale, demand per time period and locality is almost always zero. The demand …
Prob-GNN quantifies travel demand uncertainty with deep learning.
problem Uncertainty in travel demand prediction.
method Probabilistic Graph Neural Networks (Prob-GNN) framework.
result Probabilistic assumptions significantly impact uncertainty prediction.
This research improves demand forecasting by predicting complete probability density functions using machine learning.
problem Forecasting complete probability density functions for better operational decision making.
method Supervised machine learning method 'Cyclic Boosting' for explainable predictions.
result Predicted probability density functions are fully explainable and avoid 'black-box' models.
Paper improves bike-sharing demand prediction by adapting to changing patterns.
problem Improving bike-sharing demand prediction under temporal domain shifts.
method Gen-ROTDA, a robust optimal transport-guided residual domain adaptation framework.
result Gen-ROTDA achieves the lowest MAE and is the best OT-family method on average.
Two prediction models improve supply-demand forecasting for autonomous vehicles.
problem Improving accuracy and stability of supply-demand predictions for autonomous vehicles.
method Two prediction models based on residual network, LSTM, attention mechanism, and multi-attention mechanism.
result Our frameworks provide more accurate and stable prediction results than existing methods.
New model predicts travel demand uncertainty with high accuracy.
problem Uncertainty and sparsity in sparse travel demand prediction.
method Spatial-Temporal Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial Graph Neural Network (STZINB-GNN).
result STZINB-GNN outperforms benchmarks in predicting travel demand uncertainty.
Paper proposes a method for predicting any quantile of short-term electricity demand.
problem Uncertainty in power systems due to multiple factors.
method Proposes a novel general approach for distributional forecasting of short-term electricity demand.
result Demonstrates state-of-the-art distributional forecasting results for short-term electricity demand.
Predicts fine-grained OD matrices for ridesharing platforms to optimize supply-demand balance.
problem Accurately predicting spatial-temporal OD demands for ridesharing platforms.
method OD-CED model combining unsupervised space coarsening and encoder-decoder architecture.
result Significant improvement in prediction accuracy (45% RMSE reduction, 60% WAPE reduction).
Study improves retail demand forecasting by integrating macroeconomic data.
problem Lack of accurate demand forecasting due to incomplete data.
method Enriched time series data with macroeconomic variables; compared regression and machine learning models.
result Improved accuracy in predicting retail demand through comprehensive data integration.