This paper benchmarks uncertainty disentanglement across various tasks.
problem Disentangling multiple sources of uncertainty for specialized tasks.
method Reimplemented and evaluated a wide range of uncertainty estimators.
result No existing approach provides disentangled uncertainty estimators in practice.
Proposes a new method for robust uncertainty quantification in regression tasks.
problem Robust uncertainty estimation for deep neural networks in regression tasks.
method Generalized Auxiliary Uncertainty Estimator (AuxUE) scheme, considering both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties.
result DIDO method provides robust uncertainty estimates in noisy inputs, scalable to image-level and pixel-wise tasks.
Proposes measures for uncertainty quantification using proper scoring rules.
problem Uncertainty quantification for prediction tasks.
method Decomposes proper scoring rules into divergence and entropy components, tailoring uncertainty quantification to specific tasks.
result Flexibility in uncertainty quantification improves performance in selective prediction and active learning.
Efficient method for uncertainty estimation in DNNs with improved accuracy.
problem Vital assessment of deep neural networks' reliability in safety-critical applications.
method Multi-loss sub-ensembles for parallel predictions from similar models differing by their loss.
result Improved accuracy on classification tasks and competitive uncertainty measures.
Meta-learning improves Gaussian process uncertainty estimation.
problem Poor uncertainty estimation in Gaussian processes with deep kernels.
method Meta-learning to calibrate deep kernel GPs using task-specific uncalibrated and calibrated distributions.
result Improves uncertainty estimation performance with high regression performance.
This paper tackles uncertainty in deep learning for construction of prediction intervals.
problem Deep learning models lack the ability to provide reliable prediction intervals for high-risk tasks.
method The authors design a special loss function to learn both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties without requiring uncertainty labels.
result The method constructs prediction intervals that are competitive with state-of-the-art methods on publicly available datasets.
This work introduces a method to decompose uncertainty in in-context learning for large language models.
problem Understanding the sources of uncertainty in in-context learning for large language models.
method Variational uncertainty decomposition framework without sampling from latent parameter posterior.
result Quantitative and qualitative validation of decomposed epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties.
Real-time uncertainty estimation for computer vision tasks.
problem Real-time inference of uncertainty in deep learning models.
method Uncertainty-Aware Distribution Distillation method for fast inference.
result Significantly reduced inference time with improved uncertainty and predictive performance.
This research tackles uncertainty estimation in autoregressive structured prediction tasks.
problem Ensuring safety and robustness of AI systems through accurate uncertainty estimation.
method Develops a unified probabilistic ensemble-based framework for token-level and sequence-level uncertainty estimation.
result Provides baselines for error and out-of-domain detection on translation and speech recognition datasets.
Bayesian analysis reveals epistemic uncertainty as a key diagnostic for delayed generalization in in-context learning.
problem Delayed generalization in in-context learning from few examples.
method Bayesian perspective, modular arithmetic tasks, approximate Bayesian techniques, spectral mechanism analysis.
result Epistemic uncertainty collapses sharply when the model groks, indicating a practical diagnostic of generalization.
Shifts dataset evaluates uncertainty in real-world tasks across modalities.
problem Lack of standard datasets for evaluating uncertainty estimation and robustness to distributional shift.
method Proposes Shifts Dataset for evaluation of uncertainty estimates and robustness to distributional shift across tabular, audio, text, and sensor data.
result Baseline results for tabular weather prediction, machine translation, and SDC vehicle motion prediction.
Continual learning aims to learn new tasks without forgetting previously learned ones. This is especially challenging when one cannot access data from previous tasks and when the model has a fixed capacity. Current regularization-based continual learning algorithms need an external representation and extra computation …
This paper compares uncertainty estimation methods for deep learning in autonomous vehicles.
problem Ensuring safety in autonomous vehicles through accurate uncertainty quantification in deep learning models.
method A comparative survey of uncertainty quantification methods in deep neural networks.
result Different methods for uncertainty quantification in DNNs have advantages and downsides for specific AV tasks and types of uncertainty.
Predicting not only the target but also an accurate measure of uncertainty is important for many machine learning applications and in particular safety-critical ones. In this work we study the calibration of uncertainty prediction for regression tasks which often arise in real-world systems. We show that the existing d…
The paper quantifies uncertainty in aggregated machine learning metrics.
problem Uncertainty in summarizing model performance across multiple tasks.
method Statistical methodologies including bootstrapping and Bayesian modeling.
result Insights into model performance dominance for specific tasks.
Survey on uncertainty in GNNs for improved model reliability.
problem Inherent randomness and model training errors lead to unstable GNN predictions.
method Comprehensive overview of GNN uncertainty theory and methods.
result Integration of uncertainty in GNNs enhances model performance and reliability.
Hierarchical framework for model evaluation on leaderboards
problem Uncertainty and variability in model performance across tasks
method Hierarchical framework with task-level and leaderboard-level rank prediction intervals
result Statistically valid and informative model rank intervals
The paper argues that uncertainty quantification in ML is application-specific and proposes a flexible family of measures.
problem The need for proper uncertainty quantification in machine learning for safety-critical applications.
method A flexible family of uncertainty measures tailored to specific applications, using proper scoring rules to control characteristics.
result Different uncertainty measures are more suitable for different tasks (e.g., selective prediction, out-of-distribution detection, active learning).
NatPN provides fast, accurate uncertainty estimation for exponential family distributions.
problem Uncertainty in machine learning models.
method NatPN uses Normalizing Flows to fit a single density in a latent space, updating predictions based on likelihood.
result NatPN delivers competitive performance in classification, regression, and count prediction tasks.
Bayesian Neural Networks improve uncertainty modeling in facial emotion recognition.
problem High aleatoric uncertainty and visual ambiguity in facial emotion recognition.
method Bayesian Neural Networks approximated using MC-Dropout, MC-DropConnect, or Ensemble methods.
result Bayesian Neural Networks produce more human-like output probabilities.
This work tackles uncertainty quantification in language models, proposing a principled approach.
problem Challenges in identifying task-specific uncertainties in large language models.
method Bayesian decision theory, focusing on a similarity measure between generated and hypothetical true responses.
result Derives a measure for epistemic uncertainty based on a missing data perspective.
With the wide development of black-box machine learning algorithms, particularly deep neural network (DNN), the practical demand for the reliability assessment is rapidly rising. On the basis of the concept that `Bayesian deep learning knows what it does not know,' the uncertainty of DNN outputs has been investigated a…
Meta learns low-rank covariance factors for better uncertainty estimation.
problem Sub-optimal covariance matrices in multi-task settings.
method Meta learns diagonal or diagonal plus low-rank factors using an attentive set encoder.
result Efficiently constructed task-specific covariance matrices improve uncertainty estimation.
New method quantifies uncertainty at class level for better decision-making.
problem Improving cost-sensitive decision-making in classification tasks.
method Label-wise decomposition of uncertainty measures based on non-categorical metrics.
result Proposed measures adhere to desirable properties and improve uncertainty quantification.
Estimating how uncertain an AI system is in its predictions is important to improve the safety of such systems. Uncertainty in predictive can result from uncertainty in model parameters, irreducible data uncertainty and uncertainty due to distributional mismatch between the test and training data distributions. Differe…
New method quantifies uncertainty for near-optimal ML algorithms.
problem Uncertainty quantification for near-Bayes optimal ML algorithms.
method Developed a martingale posterior to recover Bayesian posterior from ML algorithms.
result Proved practical uncertainty quantification method applicable to general ML algorithms.
Efficiently estimates uncertainty for LLM-based entity linking in tabular data.
problem Accurate and reliable uncertainty estimates for LLM-based entity linking in tabular data.
method Self-supervised approach using token-level features for single-shot inference.
result Effective uncertainty estimates detected at a fraction of computational cost.
New method explains sensitivity of test data uncertainty in Bayesian inference.
problem Widespread belief that test data similarity reduces epistemic uncertainty.
method Information-theoretic decomposition of predictive uncertainty.
result Defines sensitivity using information-theoretic quantities.
AI helps HEP measure uncertainties, but needs better interpretation.
problem Uncertainty interpretation in AI for HEP measurements.
method Discussing existing AI methods for inference, simulation, and control/decision-making.
result Need for trustworthy AI UQ methods for widespread usage.
Enhances molecular design models by fine-tuning uncertainty-guided VAEs.
problem Fine-tuning pre-trained generative models for specific molecular property optimization.
method Uncertainty-guided fine-tuning of variational autoencoders in an active learning setting.
result Uncertainty-guided fine-tuning improves model performance across multiple molecular properties.
Study benchmarks uncertainty quantification in chest X-ray classification.
problem Reliable uncertainty quantification for medical AI models.
method Evaluation of 13 uncertainty quantification methods on MIMIC-CXR-JPG dataset.
result Insights into effectiveness and disentanglement of epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties.
The paper evaluates and improves uncertainty estimates in neural networks for safety-critical applications.
problem Quantifying uncertainty in neural networks for safety-critical systems.
method Proposes a statistical test for evaluating uncertainty realism in neural networks and transfers a classification architecture to image-to-image tasks.
result The variational U-Net architecture significantly improves uncertainty realism in image-to-image tasks compared to a plain model.
UBMF tackles fault diagnosis in imbalanced industrial data with enhanced accuracy and adaptability.
problem Fault diagnosis challenges in imbalanced industrial data.
method Integrates four key modules: data perturbation, cross-task feature extraction, uncertainty-based filtering, and Bayesian meta-knowledge integration.
result Achieves an average improvement of 42.22% across ten diagnostic tasks.
Estimating statistical uncertainties allows autonomous agents to communicate their confidence during task execution and is important for applications in safety-critical domains such as autonomous driving. In this work, we present the uncertainty-aware imitation learning (UAIL) algorithm for improving end-to-end control…
Study questions the reliability of uncertainty quantification in evidential deep learning.
problem Reliability of uncertainty quantification in evidential deep learning.
method Analysis of evidential deep learning methods, revealing their limitations and interpreting them as out-of-distribution detection algorithms.
result EDL methods are unreliable in quantifying uncertainty, even when effective on downstream tasks.
JUCAL jointly calibrates aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties in classifier ensembles.
problem Misrepresentation of predictive uncertainty due to unbalanced aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties.
method Joint Uncertainty Calibration (JUCAL) that jointly calibrates two constants to weight and scale uncertainties.
result Significantly outperforms state-of-the-art calibration methods across various text classification tasks.
A method for Bayes-Adaptive Deep RL using meta-learning.
problem Maximizing expected return in unknown environments with uncertainty.
method variBAD: meta-learning for approximate inference and task uncertainty.
result variBAD achieves higher online return than existing methods in MuJoCo domains.
New method learns graph structure and uncertainty from data.
problem Learning latent graph structures and their uncertainty from data.
method Proposes a sampling-based method to learn latent graph structure and uncertainty simultaneously.
result Proves that suitable loss functions on stochastic model outputs solve both learning latent graph structure and achieving optimal predictions.
The paper proposes a new method for modeling and quantifying uncertainty in multiple closed curves.
problem Modeling and uncertainty quantification of multiple closed curves.
method A multiple-output, multi-dimensional Gaussian process modeling framework.
result The proposed method provides meaningful uncertainty quantification for curve and shape-related tasks.
New method isolates epistemic uncertainty in diffusion models, improving plausibility scores.
problem Uncertainty quantification in diffusion models, especially epistemic uncertainty.
method Fisher information based approach using FLARE (Fisher-Laplace Randomized Estimator).
result FLARE improves uncertainty estimation in synthetic time-series generation tasks.
A novel framework quantifies uncertainty using proper scores for various tasks.
problem Uncertainty quantification in machine learning for reliable applications.
method Proposes a general framework based on proper scores for epistemic, aleatoric uncertainty, and model calibration.
result Achieves state-of-the-art uncertainty estimation for large language models and generative models.
Proposes a Bayesian federated learning method for diverse tasks.
problem Current federated learning approaches focus on homogeneous tasks, ignoring task diversity.
method Integrates multi-task learning with MOGP at the local level and federated learning at the global level.
result Demonstrates superior predictive performance and uncertainty calibration on diverse tasks.
Proposes hinge-Wasserstein to improve uncertainty estimation in regression tasks.
problem Estimating multimodal aleatoric uncertainty in regression tasks from images.
method Regression-by-classification paradigm with hinge-Wasserstein loss.
result Hinge-Wasserstein loss improves uncertainty estimation on challenging tasks.
New algorithms split deep learning tasks into representation and uncertainty estimation.
problem Challenges in uncertainty quantification for deep learning models.
method Proposes a two-stage approach: representation learning and uncertainty estimation.
result Simple methods outperform complex uncertainty layers in selective classification and out-of-distribution detection.
Enhances neural network regression performance by modeling weight and variance uncertainty.
problem Improving predictive performance of neural networks for regression tasks.
method Extended Blundell's framework to include variance uncertainty, using a full posterior distribution over variance parameters.
result Explicitly modeling variance uncertainty improves generalization of Bayesian neural networks.
In many safety-critical applications such as autonomous driving and surgical robots, it is desirable to obtain prediction uncertainties from object detection modules to help support safe decision-making. Specifically, such modules need to estimate the probability of each predicted object in a given region and the confi…
Proposes a method to estimate drug sensitivity uncertainty using deep regression forests.
problem Lack of confidence intervals in deep learning models for critical tasks.
method Uses Deep Regression Forests to estimate variance and uncertainty for drug sensitivity prediction.
result Improves efficiency and coverage of uncertainty estimates for drug sensitivity predictions.
Framework for imputing time series data with uncertainty measures.
problem Handling missing values in time series data, especially in healthcare.
method Uncertainty-aware multivariate time series imputation framework.
result Selective imputation of less uncertain values improves downstream tasks.