Paper establishes bounds for RNN-TPPs, showing four-layer networks can achieve vanishing errors.
problem Understanding theoretical limits of RNN-TPPs.
method Characterized RNN complexity, constructed neural approximations, applied truncation technique.
result Four-layer RNN-TPPs can achieve vanishing generalization errors.
Accelerates TPP sampling with speculative decoding for faster sequence generation.
problem Efficiently sampling from complex temporal point processes.
method Adapting speculative decoding techniques from language models to TPPs.
result Achieves significant speedup (2-6x) while maintaining distributional accuracy.
New model captures time and mark inter-dependence in TPPs.
problem Limited predictive performance of conditionally independent TPP models on entangled time and mark interactions.
method Developed a multivariate TPP that models conditional inter-dependence of time and mark, using both intensity-based and intensity-free models.
result Proposed TPP models outperform conditionally independent and dependent models in standard prediction tasks.
Neural TPPs improve EHR modelling efficiency.
problem Challenges in modelling irregularly timed, noisy EHRs.
method Proposed neural network parameterizations of Temporal Point Processes (TPPs) for EHRs.
result Neural TPPs outperform non-TPP models on EHRs.
Survey of TPPs from Bayesian, neural, and LLM perspectives.
problem Modeling event sequences in continuous time.
method Bayesian, neural, and LLM approaches.
result Advances in LLMs offer new possibilities for TPP modeling.
Introduces CuFun model for more accurate TPPs using CDF.
problem Challenges in forecasting future events in TPPs.
method Uses Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) and monotonic neural network.
result Significantly improves adaptability and precision in TPPs.
ADD-THIN improves TPP forecasting by handling long-term data sequences.
problem Sequential limitations in autoregressive models for TPPs.
method Diffusion model for TPPs that operates on entire sequences.
result ADD-THIN outperforms state-of-the-art models in forecasting.
HRTPP improves TPP interpretability and accuracy in medical event modeling.
problem Lack of interpretability in TPPs for medical event sequences.
method Hybrid-Rule Temporal Point Processes (HRTPP) integrating temporal logic rules and numerical features.
result HRTPP outperforms state-of-the-art interpretable TPPs in predictive performance and clinical interpretability.
Generative model for TPPs using signatures and distributional discrepancies.
problem Limitations of signature methods for TPPs and lack of global sequence-level loss in neural models.
method Introduce interarrival embedding to lift jump paths to continuous paths of bounded variation, enabling signature methods for discrete event sequences. Develop sigTPP, a signature-based generative model trained on path-level loss.
result sigTPP achieves the best average rank across multiple metrics and outperforms or is within a standard error of the strongest baseline in 64% of dataset-metric pairs.
The paper characterizes SLOPE's trade-off between FDP and TPP, showing its power limit and superiority over Lasso.
problem Characterizing the SLOPE trade-off between FDP and TPP.
method Using variational perspective and Gaussian random designs, the paper derives upper and lower bounds on the optimal trade-off.
result SLOPE outperforms Lasso in terms of FDP, TPP, and l2 estimation risk.
Efficiently models event-based data with general parametric kernels.
problem Inference for Hawkes processes with general parametric kernels requires large datasets.
method Developed a fast ℓ2 gradient-based solver using a discretized version of events. result Improved estimation of pattern latency in brain signals.
TriTPP models enable faster and more flexible event data modeling.
problem Inflexibility and slow sampling in traditional TPP models.
method Triangular Maps and Normalizing Flows for parallel sampling and likelihood computation.
result TriTPP models achieve orders of magnitude faster sampling while maintaining flexibility.
Latent Block-Diffusion Temporal Point Processes (LBDTPP) is a semi-autoregressive framework for generating asynchronous event sequences.
problem Generating asynchronous event sequences
method Latent Block-Diffusion Temporal Point Processes
result Outperforms state-of-the-art TPP baselines in both unconditional and conditional generation tasks
Event sequences can be modeled by temporal point processes (TPPs) to capture their asynchronous and probabilistic nature. We propose an intensity-free framework that directly models the point process distribution by utilizing normalizing flows. This approach is capable of capturing highly complex temporal distributions…
2-level SLOPE improves high-dimensional inference with fewer hyperparameters.
problem High-dimensional linear regression with complex penalty sequences.
method 2-level SLOPE with three hyperparameters, reducing penalty space.
result Sharp trade-off between TPP and FDP, computationally efficient.
Temporal Point Processes (TPP) with partial likelihoods involving a latent structure often entail an intractable marginalization, thus making inference hard. We propose a novel approach to Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) involving approximate inference over the latent variables by minimizing a tight upper bound on …
Score matching fails for general point processes, a new estimator improves accuracy.
problem Score matching estimators fail for general point processes.
method Introduced a weighted score matching estimator for point processes.
result The weighted score matching estimator accurately estimates model parameters on synthetic and real data.
EventFlow forecasts event sequences without autoregression, improving accuracy.
problem Forecasting errors in autoregressive models for event sequences.
method EventFlow uses flow matching to learn joint distributions over event times directly.
result EventFlow reduces forecast error by 20%-53% compared to baselines.
Mamba Hawkes Process improves modeling of event sequences with long-term dependencies.
problem Modeling mutual inhibition and nonlinearity in asynchronous event sequences.
method Introduces Mamba Hawkes Process using Mamba state space architecture.
result MHP outperforms existing models across various datasets.
New method models MTPP without predefined intensity functions.
problem Parameterizing conditional joint PDF for MTPP.
method IFIB framework, modeling p∗(m,t) directly. result Superior experimental results on real and synthetic data.