Research
On-device research index

arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,657 papers · 148 categories

Trend · papers per month

68136204272 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for Surprise Minimization

EMIX minimizes surprise in multi-agent reinforcement learning.

problem Surprise and approximation bias in multi-agent reinforcement learning.
method Energy-based MIXer (EMIX) for minimizing surprise across multiple agents.
result EMIX demonstrates consistent stable performance in challenging StarCraft II scenarios.

Surprise describes a range of phenomena from unexpected events to behavioral responses. We propose a measure of surprise and use it for surprise-driven learning. Our surprise measure takes into account data likelihood as well as the degree of commitment to a belief via the entropy of the belief distribution. We find th…

2016-06-17abs ↗pdf ↗

TradeR uses RL to execute trades in real markets, minimizing surprise and catastrophe.

problem Minimizing surprise and catastrophe in high-frequency trading.
method Hierarchical RL with energy-based surprise value function.
result TradeR outperforms in abrupt price changes and maintains profitability.

The study explores how agents learn and adapt preferences in dynamic environments.

problem Adaptive behavior and preference learning in reinforcement learning tasks.
method The approach involves self-supervised learning of preferences, distinguishing between environmental and intrinsic observations, and evaluating with model-free and model-based reinforcement learning.
result The methodology successfully minimizes surprisal and expected free energy in dynamic environments.

Model financial markets using information theory with a single parameter.

problem Capture the complexity of financial markets with a simple model.
method Derive an idealized model based on four information-theoretic assumptions, minimizing surprisal and divergence.
result The model uses squared radial Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes for state variables and their sums.

Auto-Surprise automates recommender system selection and optimization.

problem Finding the best algorithm and hyperparameters for recommender systems.
method Extends Surprise library with TPE optimization for algorithm selection and hyperparameter tuning.
result Significantly faster in finding optimal hyperparameters compared to grid search.

New limits of minimal surface systems have surprising large interior parts.

problem Minimal surface system limits with large interior vertical and non-minimal portions.
method Construction of limits with smallest possible dimension and codimension.
result Limits of minimal surface systems can have surprising large interior parts.

Surprise-based learning allows agents to rapidly adapt to non-stationary stochastic environments characterized by sudden changes. We show that exact Bayesian inference in a hierarchical model gives rise to a surprise-modulated trade-off between forgetting old observations and integrating them with the new ones. The mod…

2019-07-05abs ↗pdf ↗

DG separates successes and failures by gating updates with advantage and surprisal.

problem Negative learning from surprising data in distributed reinforcement learning.
method DG gates each update with the product of advantage and surprisal, suppressing failures and preserving successes.
result DG outperforms other methods in various challenging reinforcement learning tasks.

The Surprise index assesses autonomous systems' competency in uncertain environments.

problem Evaluating competency of autonomous systems in dynamic, uncertain environments.
method Surprise index, a measure that quantifies system performance based on available data.
result The Surprise index can be computed for dynamic systems with Gaussian marginal distributions.

DE is a new exploration method that limits resource usage based on expected improvement and surprise.

problem Limited exploration in large action spaces when resources are scarce.
method Delight-gated exploration (DE) that limits exploration actions based on a gate price set by the product of expected improvement and surprise.
result DE outperforms ε\varepsilon-greedy and Thompson Sampling in terms of regret across various bandit and MDP settings.

We show that reinforcement learning agents that learn by surprise (surprisal) get stuck at abrupt environmental transition boundaries because these transitions are difficult to learn. We propose a counter-intuitive solution that we call Mutual Information Minimising Exploration (MIME) where an agent learns a latent rep…

2020-01-16abs ↗pdf ↗

We consider the problem of rank loss minimization in the setting of multilabel classification, which is usually tackled by means of convex surrogate losses defined on pairs of labels. Very recently, this approach was put into question by a negative result showing that commonly used pairwise surrogate losses, such as ex…

2012-06-27abs ↗pdf ↗

In this paper, we describe a new surprising example of a fibration of the Clifford torus S3 x S3 in the 7-sphere by great 3-spheres, which is fiberwise homogeneous but whose fibers are not parallel to one another. In particular it is not part of a Hopf fibration. A fibration is fiberwise homogeneous when for any two fi…

2014-07-17abs ↗pdf ↗

The purpose of the present paper is to introduce and explore two surprises that arise when we apply a standard procedure to study the number of finite type invariants of 3-manifolds introduced independently by M. Goussarov and K. Habiro based on surgery on claspers, Y-graphs or clovers, \cite{Gu,Ha,GGP}. One surprise i…

2000-06-06abs ↗pdf ↗

SAE-FiRE extracts key financial info from long documents, improving earnings surprise predictions.

problem Predicting earnings surprises from long, redundant financial documents.
method Sparse Autoencoder feature selection to filter out noise and identify key dimensions.
result SAE-FiRE significantly outperforms baseline approaches in financial datasets.

A model simulates how different types of traders react to macroeconomic news.

problem Understanding how various market participants respond to macroeconomic surprises.
method Developed a calibrated data generation process (DGP) with four trader archetypes and a Monte Carlo simulation.
result Higher information and lower risk-averse traders take larger positions and achieve higher average wealth.

New shapes enclose less volume than the sphere, surprising in 3D.

problem Finding the minimal volume enclosed by smooth spheres with bounded curvatures.
method Produced a family of bodies parameterized by ε, each bounded by a smooth topological sphere with principal curvatures in [-1, 1].
result The unit sphere does not enclose the minimal volume among all smooth spheres in R^3 with principal curvatures in [-1, 1].

Plotting a learner's average performance against the number of training samples results in a learning curve. Studying such curves on one or more data sets is a way to get to a better understanding of the generalization properties of this learner. The behavior of learning curves is, however, not very well understood and…

2019-07-11abs ↗pdf ↗

We establish several new stylised facts concerning the intra-day seasonalities of stock dynamics. Beyond the well known U-shaped pattern of the volatility, we find that the average correlation between stocks increases throughout the day, leading to a smaller relative dispersion between stocks. Somewhat paradoxically, t…

2010-09-24abs ↗pdf ↗

LemonadeBench evaluates LLMs' economic intuition through a simulated lemonade stand.

problem Evaluating LLMs' economic understanding and decision-making in simple markets.
method Simulated lemonade stand business to test LLMs' long-term planning and profit maximization.
result Models achieve profitability but exhibit local rather than global optimization.

In 1974, Gehring posed the problem of minimizing the length of two linked curves separated by unit distance. This constraint can be viewed as a measure of thickness for links, and the ratio of length over thickness as the ropelength. In this paper we refine Gehring's problem to deal with links in a fixed link-homotopy …

2004-02-13abs ↗pdf ↗

New framework detects near vs. far out-of-distribution samples for AI safety.

problem Binary OOD detection fails to distinguish between semantically close and distant unknown risks.
method Ternary classification based on Low-Entropy Semantic Manifolds and Semantic Surprise Vector.
result Framework achieves state-of-the-art performance on ternary OOD detection task.

Study on double descent behavior in two-layer neural networks for binary classification.

problem Understanding the double descent phenomenon in model test error.
method Two-layer neural network with ReLU activation for binary classification. Quantified model size by sample-to-dimension ratio. Empirical risk minimization using Convex Gaussian Min Max Theorem.
result Observed and investigated the double descent behavior of model test error.

Chance-constrained ActInf allows for small violations of constraints to drive goal-directed behavior.

problem Goal-directed behavior constrained by prior beliefs.
method Introducing chance constraints to ActInf, allowing for small violations of constraints.
result Chance-constrained ActInf allows for a trade-off between robust control and chance constraint violation.

A new kk-NN algorithm using surprisal for robust and interpretable nonparametric learning.

problem Complex patterns and relationships in data without strong distribution assumptions.
method Surprisal-driven kk-NN framework for classification, regression, density estimation, and anomaly detection.
result State-of-the-art results in classification and anomaly detection, competitive regression results.

As traditional neural network consumes a significant amount of computing resources during back propagation, \citet{Sun2017mePropSB} propose a simple yet effective technique to alleviate this problem. In this technique, only a small subset of the full gradients are computed to update the model parameters. In this paper …

2017-09-18abs ↗pdf ↗