arXiv research

In this note, we study the ultimate ruin probabilities of a real-valued L{é}vy process X with light-tailed negative jumps. It is well-known that, for such L{é}vy processes, the probability of ruin decreases as an exponential function with a rate given by the root of the Laplace exponent, when the initial value goes to …

This article is devoted to the maximisation of HARA utilities of L{é}vy switching process on finite time interval via dual method. We give the description of all f-divergence minimal martingale measures in initially enlarged filtration, the expression of their Radon-Nikodym densities involving Hellinger and Kulback-Lei…

Bayesian neural networks approximate Student-t processes in the infinite-width limit.

Student-$t$ processes have recently been proposed as an appealing alternative non-parameteric function prior. They feature enhanced flexibility and predictive variance. In this work the use of Student-$t$ processes are explored for multi-objective Bayesian optimization. In particular, an analytical expression for the h…

We investigate the Student-t process as an alternative to the Gaussian process as a nonparametric prior over functions. We derive closed form expressions for the marginal likelihood and predictive distribution of a Student-t process, by integrating away an inverse Wishart process prior over the covariance kernel of a G…

Proposes a new Bayesian mixture of student-t processes for modeling non-stationary data.

This paper presents generalized momentum mappings for covariant Hamiltonian field theories. The new momentum mappings arise from a generalization of symplectic geometry to $L_VY$, the bundle of vertically adapted linear frames over the bundle of field configurations $Y$. Specifically, the generalized field momentum obs…

In this paper, we study the ruin problem with investment in a general framework where the business part X is a L{é}vy process and the return on investment R is a semimartingale. We obtain upper bounds on the finite and infinite time ruin probabilities that decrease as a power function when the initial capital increases…

The aim of this article is to design a moment transformation for Student- t distributed random variables, which is able to account for the error in the numerically computed mean. We employ Student-t process quadrature, an instance of Bayesian quadrature, which allows us to treat the integral itself as a random variable…

Paper develops methods for estimating and simulating a Student-t Lévy regression model.

Elliptical processes generalize Gaussian and Student-t models with fat tails and computational efficiency.

This paper considers the robust and efficient implementation of Gaussian process regression with a Student-t observation model. The challenge with the Student-t model is the analytically intractable inference which is why several approximative methods have been proposed. The expectation propagation (EP) has been found …

Gaussian process model for vector-valued function has been shown to be useful for multi-output prediction. The existing method for this model is to re-formulate the matrix-variate Gaussian distribution as a multivariate normal distribution. Although it is effective in many cases, re-formulation is not always workable a…

We introduce a class of interest rate models, called the $α$-CIR model, which gives a natural extension of the standard CIR model by adopting the $α$-stable L{é}vy process and preserving the branching property. This model allows to describe in a unified and parsimonious way several recent observations on the sovereign …

New diffusion models capture heavy-tailed distributions better.

The Wiener-Hopf factorization is obtained in closed form for a phase type approximation to the CGMY Lévy process. This allows, for the approximation, exact computation of first passage times to barrier levels via Laplace transform inversion. Calibration of the CGMY model to market option prices defines the risk neutral…

The paper derives formulas for moments of a Student t distribution and applies them to quantify $L_p$-quantiles.

We consider the problem of learning the level set for which a noisy black-box function exceeds a given threshold. To efficiently reconstruct the level set, we investigate Gaussian process (GP) metamodels. Our focus is on strongly stochastic samplers, in particular with heavy-tailed simulation noise and low signal-to-no…

Let $M$ be a manifold, $V$ be a vector field on $M$, and $B$ be a Banach space. For any fixed function $f:M\rightarrow B$ and any fixed complex number $λ$, we study Hyers-Ulam stability of the global differential equation $Vy=λy+f$.

Proposes a VAE with Student-$t$ mixture model for authorship attribution.

Constructs supermartingale couplings with full marginals constraints.

Bayesian optimization has recently attracted the attention of the automatic machine learning community for its excellent results in hyperparameter tuning. BO is characterized by the sample efficiency with which it can optimize expensive black-box functions. The efficiency is achieved in a similar fashion to the learnin…

I explicitly work out closed form solutions for the optimal hedging strategies (in the sense of Bouchaud and Sornette) in the case of European call options, where the underlying is modeled by (unbiased) iid additive returns with Student-t distributions. The results may serve as illustrative examples for option pricing …

New method improves generative modeling on convex domains using regularized mirror maps and Student-t priors.

A new update rule for deep reinforcement learning reduces learning variance and variance in reference signals.

Exponential family distributions are highly useful in machine learning since their calculation can be performed efficiently through natural parameters. The exponential family has recently been extended to the t-exponential family, which contains Student-t distributions as family members and thus allows us to handle noi…

Method introduces topological regularization using information filtering networks.

Explains SNE, t-SNE, and their variants for manifold learning.

In this paper, we provide a representation theorem for dynamic capital allocation under It{ô}-L{é}vy model. We consider the representation of dynamic risk measures defined under Backward Stochastic Differential Equations (BSDE) with generators that grow quadratic-exponentially in the control variables. Dynamic capital …

Extended PELCoV for bivariate Student-t copulas to monitor foreign exchange risk.

A VB method for high-dimensional regression with student-t priors achieves nearly optimal performance and computational efficiency.

In this paper, a generalized multivariate Student-t mixture model is developed for classification and clustering of Low Probability of Intercept radar waveforms. A Low Probability of Intercept radar signal is characterized by a pulse compression waveform which is either frequency-modulated or phase-modulated. The propo…

AIS algorithm improves heavy-tailed distribution estimation.

Researchers derived formulas for joint moments of elliptical distributions.

Paper defines new risk measures for elliptical distributions.

COS method convergence conditions expanded for heavy-tailed distributions.

Bayesian realized EGARCH models improve tail risk forecasting.

A robust loss for anomaly mitigation and unsupervised contamination classification

This note presents an operational measure of fat-tailedness for univariate probability distributions, in $[0,1]$ where 0 is maximally thin-tailed (Gaussian) and 1 is maximally fat-tailed. Among others,1) it helps assess the sample size needed to establish a comparative $n$ needed for statistical significance, 2) allows…

DeRegiME forecasts with regime structure, improving probabilistic predictions across various time series.

Enhances neural processes for better context handling.

As an automatic method of determining model complexity using the training data alone, Bayesian linear regression provides us a principled way to select hyperparameters. But one often needs approximation inference if distribution assumption is beyond Gaussian distribution. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian linear reg…

We show how to reduce the problem of computing VaR and CVaR with Student T return distributions to evaluation of analytical functions of the moments. This allows an analysis of the risk properties of systems to be carefully attributed between choices of risk function (e.g. VaR vs CVaR); choice of return distribution (p…

Develops a robust model for skewed and heavy-tailed data in periodontal studies.

DSPM models control noise volatility, improving financial data analysis.

A robust Gaussian process model using Huber likelihood for outlier resistance.

TAdam optimizes machine learning models to resist noise effectively.

This paper uses multivariate probability models to assess financial system risks.