A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Stochastic gradient descent outperforms traditional force-directed methods.
The paper explains emergent phenomena in deep learning using entropic forces.
This article is concerned with learning and stochastic control in physical systems which contain unknown input signals. These unknown signals are modeled as Gaussian processes (GP) with certain parametrized covariance structures. The resulting latent force models (LFMs) can be seen as hybrid models that contain a first…
Proposes a new model to price options considering market forces beyond Black-Scholes.
Optimal timing for converting savings into annuities considering mortality risk.
We propose a unifying view of two different Bayesian inference algorithms, Stochastic Gradient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (SG-MCMC) and Stein Variational Gradient Descent (SVGD), leading to improved and efficient novel sampling schemes. We show that SVGD combined with a noise term can be framed as a multiple chain SG-MCM…
DeepONet accelerates reliability analysis of stochastic nonlinear systems.
We consider stochastic versions of Euler--Arnold equations using the infinite-dimensional geometric approach as pioneered by Ebin and Marsden. For the Euler equation on a compact manifold (possibly with smooth boundary) we establish local existence and uniqueness of a strong solution (in the stochastic sense) in spaces…
The problem of combined state and input estimation of linear structural systems based on measured responses and a priori knowledge of structural model is considered. A novel methodology using Gaussian process latent force models is proposed to tackle the problem in a stochastic setting. Gaussian process latent force mo…
We extend the lifecycle model (LCM) of consumption over a random horizon (a.k.a. the Yaari model) to a world in which (i.) the force of mortality obeys a diffusion process as opposed to being deterministic, and (ii.) a consumer can adapt their consumption strategy to new information about their mortality rate (a.k.a. h…
Gaussian processes (GPs) are a good choice for function approximation as they are flexible, robust to over-fitting, and provide well-calibrated predictive uncertainty. Deep Gaussian processes (DGPs) are multi-layer generalisations of GPs, but inference in these models has proved challenging. Existing approaches to infe…
Simulates financial market orders using anomalous diffusion models.
We propose a stochastic modified equations (SME) for modeling the asynchronous stochastic gradient descent (ASGD) algorithms. The resulting SME of Langevin type extracts more information about the ASGD dynamics and elucidates the relationship between different types of stochastic gradient algorithms. We show the conver…
The paper analyzes optimal retirement timing considering age-dependent mortality risk.
A new method detects hidden driving forces in systems with multiple observables.
Stochastic parameterizations account for uncertainty in the representation of unresolved sub-grid processes by sampling from the distribution of possible sub-grid forcings. Some existing stochastic parameterizations utilize data-driven approaches to characterize uncertainty, but these approaches require significant str…
Noise in linear networks minimizes sharpness and leads to shrinkage-thresholding.
New algorithm Momentum-QNG improves optimization of quantum circuits.
Statistical dynamics of financial systems is investigated, based on a model of a randomly coupled equation system driven by a stochastic Langevin force. Anticorrelations of price returns, and subdiffusion of prices is found from the model, and and compared with those calculated from historical $/EURO exchange rates.
Study efficient pricing for barrier options in stochastic-volatility models with leverage correction.
Study on Kyle's model with stochastic liquidity impacts asset volatility.
In this paper we contribute a novel algorithm family, which generalizes many unsupervised techniques including unnormalized and energy models, and allows us to infer different statistical modalities (e.g. data likelihood and ratio between densities) from data samples. The proposed unsupervised technique, named Probabil…
SVD-based methods reduce computational cost for stochastic systems.
The paper values variable annuities using complex stochastic models and deep learning.
Statistic dynamics of financial systems is investigated, basing on a model of randomly coupled equation system driven by stochastic Langevin force. It is found that in stable regime the noise power spectrum of the system is of 1/f^alpha form, with the exponent alpha=3/2 in case of Hermitian coupling matrices, or slight…
Many efforts have been devoted to training generative latent variable models with autoregressive decoders, such as recurrent neural networks (RNN). Stochastic recurrent models have been successful in capturing the variability observed in natural sequential data such as speech. We unify successful ideas from recently pr…
Generative models for complex stochastic dynamics using adversarial learning.
AI models solved the Kaczmarz algorithm's worst-case complexity.
In this short note, we show how the parallel adaptive Wang-Landau (PAWL) algorithm of Bornn et al. (2013) can be used to automate and improve simulated tempering algorithms. While Wang-Landau and other stochastic approximation methods have frequently been applied within the simulated tempering framework, this note demo…
New algorithm CROP achieves asymptotic optimality with bounded regret.
New method uses normalizing flows to improve force fields for coarse-grained molecular dynamics.
We introduce solvable stochastic dealer models, which can reproduce basic empirical laws of financial markets such as the power law of price change. Starting from the simplest model that is almost equivalent to a Poisson random noise generator, the model becomes fairly realistic by adding only two effects, the self-mod…
Although stochastic gradient descent (SGD) is a driving force behind the recent success of deep learning, our understanding of its dynamics in a high-dimensional parameter space is limited. In recent years, some researchers have used the stochasticity of minibatch gradients, or the signal-to-noise ratio, to better char…
New algorithm efficiently trains machine learning models to atomic forces data.
The paper integrates dissipative and curl forces using geometric methods.
Improved CG force-field learning from all-atom data.
Human motion prediction is a stochastic process: Given an observed sequence of poses, multiple future motions are plausible. Existing approaches to modeling this stochasticity typically combine a random noise vector with information about the previous poses. This combination, however, is done in a deterministic manner,…
A machine learning framework predicts self-induced stochastic resonance in neurons.
We propose a quasi-Monte Carlo algorithm for pricing knock-out and knock-in barrier options under the Heston (1993) stochastic volatility model. This is done by modifying the LT method from Imai and Tan (2006) for the Heston model such that the first uniform variable does not influence the stochastic volatility path an…
Paper introduces a PDE-free method for decomposing forces in any dimension.
Proposes linking energy and force uncertainty in deep learning potentials.
We present a deep learning model, DE-LSTM, for the simulation of a stochastic process with an underlying nonlinear dynamics. The deep learning model aims to approximate the probability density function of a stochastic process via numerical discretization and the underlying nonlinear dynamics is modeled by the Long Shor…
We consider a generalization of the notion of a natural mechanical system to the case of additional forces of gyroscopic type. Such forces appear, for example, as a result of global reduction of a natural system with symmetry. We study symmetries in the systems with gyroscopic forces to find out when these systems admi…
We propose a new least-squares Monte Carlo algorithm for the approximation of conditional expectations in the presence of stochastic derivative weights. The algorithm can serve as a building block for solving dynamic programming equations, which arise, e.g., in non-linear option pricing problems or in probabilistic dis…
Study explains Zipf's law using geometric mechanisms from a finite alphabet.
The paper analyzes errors in mechanical systems with external forces.
Study curve flows with global forcing terms using a distance comparison principle.
Paper studies PSGD for constrained optimization problems and its statistical properties.