New method estimates stochastic intervention effects in decision-making domains.
problem Current causal inference methods are limited to deterministic treatment, unable to handle stochastic policies.
method Developed a new stochastic propensity score and stochastic intervention effect estimator (SIE) with a customized genetic algorithm (Ge-SIO).
result Empirical study shows significant performance improvement over state-of-the-art baselines.
Algorithm learns decision trees from noisy data.
problem Learning stochastic decision trees from corrupted samples.
method Quasipolynomial-time algorithm for adversarial noise.
result Returns a hypothesis with error within 2 η + ε 2η + \varepsilon 2 η + ε of optimal. Paper tackles risk-sensitive decision-making under uncertainty.
problem Risk-sensitive decision-making problem under uncertainty.
method Formulated as a stochastic control problem, delineated necessary optimality conditions.
result Illustrative examples from optimal betting and inventory management support the theory.
Unified framework connects reinforcement learning and optimal control.
problem Sequential decision-making across different communities.
method Unified modeling framework based on optimizing policies.
result Unified framework includes four universal policy classes.
An online decision-making algorithm using stochastic gradient descent for big data.
problem Efficiently updating decision rules in online decision making with big data.
method Stochastic gradient descent for online updates, asymptotic normality of estimators.
result Asymptotic normality of parameter and value estimators, enabling statistical inference.
New RL algorithms handle stochastic action sets, addressing divergence issues.
problem Handling stochastic action sets in reinforcement learning.
method Developed new policy gradient algorithms with variance reduction techniques.
result Proved conditions for convergence of new algorithms.
New method learns policies from past data.
problem Learning decision policies from experience.
method Fully Probabilistic Design (FPD) formalism for stochastic policy finding.
result Proposes a new approach for policy learning.
A new method for decision-focused learning using diffusion models.
problem Inability of deterministic point predictions to capture stochasticity in real-world environments.
method Proposes a diffusion-based DFL approach that trains a diffusion model to represent uncertain parameters and optimizes decisions through stochastic optimization.
result Empirically shows consistent outperformance over strong baselines in decision quality.
The paper analyzes how behavioral investors make portfolio decisions using Markowitz Stochastic Dominance criteria.
problem Understanding how behavioral investors make portfolio decisions.
method Developed stochastic optimization problems and MILP models to capture subjective decision weights and probability weighting functions.
result The developed models can be used to formulate computationally tractable portfolio analysis problems.
Stochastic Gradient Trees learn decision trees incrementally.
problem Learning decision trees using stochastic gradient information.
method Incremental learning setting, soft splits not used, new tree not constructed per update.
result Performs similarly to standard incremental classification trees, outperforms state of the art incremental regression trees, comparable to batch multi-instance learning methods.
Study minimax-optimal rates for offline decision-making with function approximation.
problem Statistical complexity of offline decision-making with function approximation.
method Near minimax-optimal rates for stochastic contextual bandits and Markov decision processes, using pseudo-dimension and behavior policy.
result Established performance limits and new characterization of behavior policy.
Study impacts of feeding cost risk on aquaculture valuation and decision making.
problem Impact of stochastic feeding costs on aquaculture valuation and decision making.
method Using Schwartz-2-factor model and deep neural networks to infer decision boundary.
result Accounting for stochastic feeding costs leads to superior performance in decision rules.
Stochastic algo learns from evolving data, achieving optimal performance.
problem Performative prediction and multiplayer extensions.
method Stochastic approximation with decision-dependent distributions.
result Asymptotic normality and optimality of the algorithm's performance.
This paper considers online convex optimization (OCO) with stochastic constraints, which generalizes Zinkevich's OCO over a known simple fixed set by introducing multiple stochastic functional constraints that are i.i.d. generated at each round and are disclosed to the decision maker only after the decision is made. Th…
The paper corrects bias in fluid approximation for better decision-making in stochastic optimization.
problem Bias introduced by using mean values in fluid approximation leads to suboptimal decisions.
method Identifying a decision-corrected point estimate that yields optimal decisions.
result A corrected point estimate exists under certain conditions and can be computed algorithmically.
In data-limited settings, stochastic policies can outperform deterministic ones in bandit problems.
problem Making reliable decisions with limited data in bandit problems.
method Designing TRUST, an algorithm that uses localization laws and relative pessimism.
result TRUST achieves comparable sample complexity to LCB on minimax problems but is significantly lower on few-sample problems.
Dynamic probabilistic forecasts guide optimal decisions in uncertain processes.
problem Optimal decision making in processes influenced by uncertain random factors.
method Stochastic models for probabilistic forecast evolution, calibrated from ensemble forecasts.
result Optimal decision strategies determined using dynamic probabilistic forecasts.
New issue found in value-based reinforcement learning for stochastic environments.
problem Value-based reinforcement learning struggles with stochastic state transitions.
method Demonstrated using a multiobjective Markov Decision Process (MOMDP).
result Approaches may converge to Pareto-dominated solutions instead of optimal ones.
New framework tackles stochastic latent subgroup heterogeneity in online decision-making.
problem Stochastic latent heterogeneity in online decision-making where individual responses vary with unobserved subgroups.
method Latent heterogeneous bandit framework using EM-greedy algorithm to learn subgroup probabilities and reward parameters.
result Achieves optimal estimation and classification guarantees, revealing a fundamental stochastic barrier in online decision-making.
Optimizes decision-making with uncertain variables using auxiliary observations.
problem Contextual stochastic optimization problems with uncertain variables and rich auxiliary observations.
method Trains forest decision policies by growing trees that optimize downstream decision quality, using optimization perturbation analysis for efficient approximations.
result Proves asymptotic optimality and empirical validation of the method's performance and efficiency.
New method for online statistical inference in contextual bandits using SGD.
problem Online decision-making in contextual bandits with statistical inference.
method Weighted stochastic gradient descent for adaptive data collection.
result Asymptotic normality of the parameter estimator with improved efficiency.
Paper evaluates how forecast errors affect optimal utilisation in production planning.
problem Forecast errors impact optimal utilisation in production planning.
method Simulation and mixed integer programming for stochastic demand.
result Forecast errors significantly affect optimal costs in production planning.
In stochastic decision problems, one often wants to estimate the underlying probability measure statistically, and then to use this estimate as a basis for decisions. We shall consider how the uncertainty in this estimation can be explicitly and consistently incorporated in the valuation of decisions, using the theory …
Proposes new rule for ranking investment prospects over long horizons.
problem Ranking investment prospects over long horizons considering bounded risk aversion.
method Introduces asymptotic fractional-order stochastic dominance with bounded relative risk aversion.
result Establishes equivalent conditions for the new rule under lognormal returns without mean non-negativity constraint.
A new family of stochastic dominance orders based on distortion functions.
problem Determining a continuum of dominance relations for risk assessment.
method Introducing H-distorted stochastic dominance, a generalized family of stochastic orders.
result Power-distorted stochastic dominance is particularly appealing due to its simplicity and statistical interpretations.
Method trains neural network for optimal decisions from stochastic simulators.
problem Suboptimal decisions from SBI approximations of posterior distributions.
method Trains neural network on simulated data to predict optimal actions.
result Induces similar cost as true posterior for optimal actions.
Paper proposes a new method for SP with covariates using PADR and ERM.
problem Stochastic programming with covariate information.
method Empirical risk minimization (ERM) with nonconvex piecewise affine decision rules (PADR).
result The method provides theoretical consistency and computational tractability for nonconvex SP problems.
New method selects features for sequential decision making.
problem Dynamic feature selection for instance-wise decisions.
method Latent variable model trained in a supervised manner; reasoning across stochastic latent space.
result Outperforms existing methods on various datasets.
Study finds users mostly use recent market and decision information to guess market direction.
problem Limited ability to model and predict human decision-making in stock markets.
method Used networks inference with stochastic block models (SBM) to find most predictive model of unobserved decisions.
result Users mostly use recent information to guess market direction, and their decision-making strategies are analogous to behaviors in other contexts.
Paper proposes a reinforcement learning framework for efficient hyper-parameter tuning of stochastic optimization algorithms.
problem Efficient tuning of hyper-parameters for stochastic optimization algorithms.
method Modeling hyper-parameter tuning as a Markov decision process and using policy gradient algorithms.
result The proposed framework significantly reduces the time required for hyper-parameter tuning compared to Bayesian optimization.
Introduces tensor bandits for multi-dimensional online decision making.
problem Optimal decision making in multi-dimensional online scenarios.
method Stochastic low-rank tensor bandits, tensor elimination, tensor epoch-greedy, tensor ensemble sampling.
result Tensor elimination and tensor epoch-greedy algorithms outperform existing methods.
The free energy functional has recently been proposed as a variational principle for bounded rational decision-making, since it instantiates a natural trade-off between utility gains and information processing costs that can be axiomatically derived. Here we apply the free energy principle to general decision trees tha…
New bounds show complexity of adversarial decision making.
problem Understanding sample efficiency in adversarial decision making.
method New upper and lower bounds on Decision-Estimation Coefficient.
result Decision-Estimation Coefficient is necessary and sufficient for low regret in adversarial decision making.
Adaptive learning method for stochastic programs with latent uncertainty.
problem Stochastic programming problems with implicitly decision-dependent uncertainty.
method Adaptive learning-based surrogate method integrating simulation and statistical estimates.
result Established non-asymptotic convergence rate analysis for enhanced stability and efficiency.
New model considers unfairness complaints to ensure multiple fairness criteria.
problem Ensuring fairness in systems that may conflict with each other.
method Data-driven model guided by unfairness complaints, supports multiple fairness criteria, and considers their incompatibilities. Stochastic and adversarial settings analyzed with efficient algorithms.
result Efficient algorithms for both stochastic and adversarial settings with competitive guarantees.
Paper generalizes LSMC algorithm for stochastic control problems.
problem Optimal decision problems with uncertainty.
method Backward simulation method with three pillars.
result Generalization of LSMC algorithm for a wide class of models.
The paper addresses private and Byzantine-proof cooperative decision-making in multi-agent systems.
problem Designing algorithms for multi-agent decision-making that are private and resilient to faulty agents.
method Upper-confidence bound algorithms for stochastic bandit problems under privacy and Byzantine conditions.
result Optimal regret achieved in both private and Byzantine-tolerant settings.
Improved ExO method achieves near-optimal bounds in both stochastic and adversarial settings.
problem Finding optimal exploration strategies in online decision-making with limited feedback.
method Exploration by Optimization with hybrid regularizers for locally observable games.
result Achieved nearly optimal bounds of O ( ∑ a e q a ∗ k 2 m 2 log T / Δ a ) O(\sum_{a
eq a^*} k^2 m^2 \log T / Δ_a) O ( ∑ a e q a ∗ k 2 m 2 log T / Δ a ) in stochastic and adversarial environments. Proposes a new method for decision-aware learning in optimization.
problem Contextual linear optimization with cost prediction errors.
method Reweighing prediction error by decision regret for decision-aware predictor.
result Improves over predict-then-optimize framework for misspecified models.
Bayesian framework for SSP problem learns optimal strategy through interactions.
problem Sequential decision-making in stochastic shortest path problems.
method Develops a Bayesian framework to learn optimal action-value function Q ∗ Q^* Q ∗ through interactions, avoiding unrealistic assumptions. result Demonstrates data efficiency and uncertainty quantification compared to other methods.
CB-RL solves complex decision-making problems with contextual information and exogenous events.
problem Optimal policy in strategic decision-making problems that depend on environmental configuration and exogenous events.
method Contextual Bilevel Reinforcement Learning (CB-RL) with a stochastic Hyper Policy Gradient Descent (HPGD) algorithm.
result Demonstrated convergence and performance of the HPGD algorithm for reward shaping and tax design.
The paper aims to reduce bias in online decision-making by optimizing fairness and regret.
problem Achieving fair and justified real-time decisions in online systems.
method Adapting the learning-from-experts scheme to optimize fairness and regret for multiple label classes and sensitive groups.
result Approximately equalized odds can be achieved without significant loss in regret.
Batched Neural Bandits reduces policy updates in sequential decision-making.
problem Sequential decision-making with batched policy changes.
method BatchNeuralUCB algorithm combining neural networks and optimism.
result Achieves similar regret as fully sequential version with fewer policy updates.
Develops new optimization techniques for decision-making under uncertainty.
problem Decision-making under uncertainty with complex cost functions and nested expectations.
method Introduces Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization (MCCO) and develops multilevel Monte Carlo techniques.
result New optimization techniques reduce scenario complexity from exponential to polynomial growth.
The paper presents algorithms to learn decision-maker's objective function from observed data.
problem Learning the objective function of a decision-maker from observed data and decisions.
method Online learning algorithms for inverse optimization with convergence rate O ( 1 / T ) \mathcal{O}(1/\sqrt{T}) O ( 1/ T ) . result The algorithms allow decisions as good as the observed decision-maker's after few iterations.
Stochastic Gradient Descent introduces noise in training, affecting model decision boundaries.
problem Understanding the impact of noise in SGD on model decision boundaries.
method Characterized SGD and persistent SGD dynamics in a neural network model, measuring noise magnitude in both under- and over-parametrized regimes.
result Noisier algorithms lead to wider decision boundaries in constraint satisfaction problems.
New approach to fairness in machine learning through stochastic optimization.
problem Fairness issues in machine learning predictions.
method Stochastic multi-objective optimization for accuracy-fairness trade-offs.
result Well-spread and accurate Pareto fronts for handling streaming data.
New algorithm reduces regret in private online learning with optimal gap-dependent rate.
problem Optimal gap-dependent regret rate for private stochastic decision-theoretic online learning.
method Horizon-free pure-DP algorithm with exponential block partitioning and softmax selection.
result Explicit regret bound of 1000 ⋅ ( log K Δ min + log K ε ) 1000 \cdot (\frac{\log K}{Δ_{\min}}+\frac{\log K}{\varepsilon}) 1000 ⋅ ( Δ m i n l o g K + ε l o g K ) .