A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
This paper develops a two-step estimation methodology, which allows us to apply catastrophe theory to stock market returns with time-varying volatility and model stock market crashes. Utilizing high frequency data, we estimate the daily realized volatility from the returns in the first step and use stochastic cusp cata…
A new stochastic primal--dual algorithm for solving a composite optimization problem is proposed. It is assumed that all the functions/operators that enter the optimization problem are given as statistical expectations. These expectations are unknown but revealed across time through i.i.d. realizations. The proposed al…
The goal of this paper is to clarify when a stochastic partial differential equation with an affine realization admits affine state processes. This includes a characterization of the set of initial points of the realization. Several examples, as the HJMM equation from mathematical finance, illustrate our results.
The goal of this paper is to clarify when a semilinear stochastic partial differential equation driven by Lévy processes admits an affine realization. Our results are accompanied by several examples arising in natural sciences and economics.
Enhanced volatility forecasting using options data and rough volatility model.
problem Improving realized volatility forecasting accuracy.
method Infer spot volatility from options data using rough stochastic volatility model, accelerate estimation with deep learning, benchmark against traditional models.
result Augmented HAR-RV-RHeston model outperforms traditional models in daily and long-term forecasting.
In this work, we propose a new Gaussian process regression (GPR) method: physics information aided Kriging (PhIK). In the standard data-driven Kriging, the unknown function of interest is usually treated as a Gaussian process with assumed stationary covariance with hyperparameters estimated from data. In PhIK, we compu…
Rough volatility models are continuous time stochastic volatility models where the volatility process is driven by a fractional Brownian motion with the Hurst parameter smaller than half, and have attracted much attention since a seminal paper titled "Volatility is rough" was posted on SSRN in 2014 showing that the log…
We undertake a systematic comparison between implied volatility, as represented by VIX (new methodology) and VXO (old methodology), and realized volatility. We compare visually and statistically distributions of realized and implied variance (volatility squared) and study the distribution of their ratio. We find that t…
The realized stochastic volatility (RSV) model that utilizes the realized volatility as additional information has been proposed to infer volatility of financial time series. We consider the Bayesian inference of the RSV model by the Hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC) algorithm. The HMC algorithm can be parallelized and thus per…
In the case of smooth manifolds, we use Forman's discrete Morse theory to realize combinatorially any Thom-Smale complex coming from a smooth Morse function by a couple triangulation-discrete Morse function. As an application, we prove that any Euler structure on a smooth oriented closed 3-manifold has a particular rea…
The hybrid Monte Carlo algorithm (HMCA) is applied for Bayesian parameter estimation of the realized stochastic volatility (RSV) model. Using the 2nd order minimum norm integrator (2MNI) for the molecular dynamics (MD) simulation in the HMCA, we find that the 2MNI is more efficient than the conventional leapfrog integr…
We study the stochastic Riemannian gradient algorithm for matrix eigen-decomposition. The state-of-the-art stochastic Riemannian algorithm requires the learning rate to decay to zero and thus suffers from slow convergence and sub-optimal solutions. In this paper, we address this issue by deploying the variance reductio…
Stochastic Gradient Descent introduces noise in training, affecting model decision boundaries.
problem Understanding the impact of noise in SGD on model decision boundaries.
method Characterized SGD and persistent SGD dynamics in a neural network model, measuring noise magnitude in both under- and over-parametrized regimes.
result Noisier algorithms lead to wider decision boundaries in constraint satisfaction problems.
The stochastic volatility model is one of volatility models which infer latent volatility of asset returns. The Bayesian inference of the stochastic volatility (SV) model is performed by the hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC) algorithm which is superior to other Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods in sampling volatility variables. …
We define generalized currents associated with immersions of abstract solenoids with a transversal measure. We realize geometrically the full real homology of a compact manifold with these generalized currents, and more precisely with immersions of minimal uniquely ergodic solenoids. This makes precise and geometric De…
A new model framework called Realized Conditional Autoregressive Expectile (Realized-CARE) is proposed, through incorporating a measurement equation into the conventional CARE model, in a manner analogous to the Realized-GARCH model. Competing realized measures (e.g. Realized Variance and Realized Range) are employed a…
Paper proposes a new method to stabilize noisy gradient algorithms.
problem Stochastic-gradient Langevin algorithms can introduce bias when taming denominators depend on stochastic-gradient realizations.
method Proposes a structure-preserving framework for designing tamed denominators that avoid unnecessary taming and maintain the stabilizing effect of taming.
result The method avoids stationary bias and explains the stationary error split into bias and remaining error.
In classical differential geometry, a central question has been whether abstract surfaces with given geometric features can be realized as surfaces in Euclidean space. Inspired by the rich theory of embedded triply periodic minimal surfaces, we seek examples of triply periodic polyhedral surfaces that have an identifia…
We discuss the probabilistic properties of the variation based third and fourth moments of financial returns as estimators of the actual moments of the return distributions. The moment variations are defined under non-parametric assumptions with quadratic variation method but for the computational tractability, we use …