LOBDIF predicts limit order book events using a diffusion model.
problem Predicting the timing and type of events in a dynamic market system.
method LOBDIF uses a diffusion model to learn the complex time-event distribution in limit order book streams.
result LOBDIF significantly outperforms existing methods in real-world data experiments.
The paper identifies key macroeconomic events affecting exchange rate volatility.
problem Understanding which macroeconomic events impact exchange rate volatility.
method Data-driven approach to select relevant macroeconomic events using sparsity-based methods.
result The identified macroeconomic events significantly impact exchange rate volatility.
Proposes a new method to model event sequences using normalizing flows.
problem Modeling asynchronous and probabilistic event sequences.
method Intensity-free framework using normalizing flows.
result Effective at capturing stochasticity of discrete event sequences.
A new framework models multi-state events and biomarkers.
problem Limited representation of complex multi-state trajectories.
method General multi-state joint modeling framework.
result Accurate parameter recovery and personalized predictions.
Proposes a new framework to disentangle event influences in MTPP.
problem Underexplored how individual events influence overall dynamics over time.
method Decoupled MTPP framework using Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (Neural ODEs).
result Significantly improves performance on real-life datasets compared to state-of-the-art methods.
Modeling time series with jumps using neural networks and stochastic processes.
problem Capturing the dynamics of time series with both continuous flows and discrete jumps.
method Introducing Neural Jump Stochastic Differential Equations (Neural JSDEs) that extend Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (Neural ODEs) with a stochastic process term.
result Demonstrated the model's predictive capabilities on various datasets, including Hawkes processes, Stack Overflow awards, medical records, and earthquake monitoring.
The paper uses machine learning to compute rare event probabilities in stochastic systems.
problem Characterizing rare events in stochastic dynamical systems with weak noise.
method Developed a neural network framework for computing quasipotential, most probable paths, and prefactors.
result Demonstrated higher effectiveness and accuracy of the algorithm in calculating mean exit times.
Framework for training stochastic spiking neural networks with rough signals.
problem Training stochastic spiking neural networks with noisy spike timing and dynamics.
method Rough path theory and signature kernels for gradient computation.
result Pathwise gradients of SSNNs' trajectories and event times exist and satisfy a recursive relation.
A new method estimates rare failure events in complex systems.
problem Estimating the probability of rare failure events in non-linear systems.
method Stochastic Spectral Embedding (SSE) combined with modifications for efficient rare event estimation.
result Rare failure probability decomposed into conditional probabilities for easier computation.
A new framework uses stochastic optimal control to estimate rare events more accurately.
problem Estimating rare events like chemical reactions in biomolecules is computationally challenging.
method The approach casts committor estimation as a stochastic optimal control problem, developing direct and off-policy Value Matching losses.
result The framework yields more accurate committor estimates, reaction rates, and equilibrium constants.
The paper explains how importance sampling can be used for optimization of rare events.
problem Minimizing tail risks in stochastic optimization formulations.
method Importance sampling for reducing sample requirements in estimating rare events.
result Effective importance sampling techniques for optimization of rare events.
Develops a neural model to predict event occurrence and timing.
problem Standard event time models ignore the distinction between event occurrence probability and predicted time.
method Introduces a conditional event time model using a neural network with a binary stochastic layer.
result Shows superior event occurrence and timing predictions on various datasets.
Many events occur in the world. Some event types are stochastically excited or inhibited---in the sense of having their probabilities elevated or decreased---by patterns in the sequence of previous events. Discovering such patterns can help us predict which type of event will happen next and when. We model streams of d…
We propose two structural models for stochastic losses given default which allow to model the credit losses of a portfolio of defaultable financial instruments. The credit losses are integrated into a structural model of default events accounting for correlations between the default events and the associated losses. We…
SurvivalBoost improves prediction of event times in competing risks scenarios.
problem Predicting event times in scenarios with multiple possible outcomes.
method Developed a strictly proper censoring-adjusted scoring rule for stochastic optimization of competing risks.
result SurvivalBoost outperforms 12 state-of-the-art models across various metrics.
Study improves crash rate forecasting in Washington, D.C. using stochastic volatility model.
problem Forecasting crash rates in areas with irregular traffic patterns and exogenous events.
method Adopted a stochastic volatility model to capture heterogeneity and temporal instability.
result The stochastic volatility model outperforms conventional models in forecasting crash rates in Washington, D.C.
SPARQ-SGD optimizes communication in decentralized SGD with event-triggered and compressed updates.
problem Efficient communication in decentralized stochastic optimization for large-scale models.
method Event-triggered and compressed algorithm with quantized and sparsified model parameters.
result SPARQ-SGD converges with efficiency comparable to uncompressed training, demonstrating significant communication savings.
Develops a new stochastic volatility model for temperature derivatives.
problem Assessing risk related to temperature volatility.
method Conditional Least Squares and Fourier transform techniques.
result Better assessment of temperature volatility risk.
Neural surrogate predicts SPN rates from token trajectories.
problem Challenging parameter estimation in SPNs with covariates.
method 1D Convolutional Residual Network trained on Gillespie-simulated SPN realizations.
result Surrogate predicts rate-function coefficients with RMSE = 0.043.
New method learns diffusion bridges for rare events.
problem Simulating rare events in diffusion processes.
method Iterative online learning based on self-consistency.
result Strong performance in various empirical settings.
Generative model simulates rare events for better decision making.
problem Rare events impact decision making but are hard to sample.
method Normalizing Flow coupled with Importance Sampling.
result Accurate estimation of rare events improves decision outcomes.
Prototype controls stochastic drug resistance in cells.
problem Emergence of drug-resistant cells from random mutations.
method Deep reinforcement learning for adaptive drug dosing.
result 100% success rate in suppressing cell proliferation.
Jeffreys Flow improves robustness of Boltzmann generators for rare event sampling.
problem Rare events and metastable trapping in sampling physical systems with rough energy landscapes.
method Introduces Jeffreys Flow, a robust generative framework using Parallel Tempering distillation and symmetric Jeffreys divergence to mitigate mode collapse and improve mode coverage.
result Minimizing Jeffreys divergence suppresses mode collapse and corrects inaccuracies in multi-modal distributions.
We propose an extension to Hawkes processes by treating the levels of self-excitation as a stochastic differential equation. Our new point process allows better approximation in application domains where events and intensities accelerate each other with correlated levels of contagion. We generalize a recent algorithm f…
HARMLESS meta-learning method models short event sequences with relational information.
problem Learning heterogeneous point process models from short event sequence data.
method Hierarchical Bayesian mixture Hawkes process model with stochastic variational meta expectation maximization.
result HARMLESS outperforms existing methods in predicting future events.
New model predicts network events better than existing ones.
problem Existing models can't capture complex network structures.
method Proposed MULCH model using multivariate Hawkes processes.
result MULCH model outperforms other models in predictions and generation.
Mixture Density RNNs learn to model predictions as multiple Gaussian distributions.
problem Understanding predictions made by MD-RNNs in complex environments.
method Analyzed predictions from trained MD-RNNs, focusing on their Gaussian components.
result MD-RNNs' Gaussian components separately model stochastic events and scenarios governed by different rules.
New algorithm identifies best arm in rare event scenarios.
problem Identifying the best arm with tiny reward probability.
method Approximated Compound Poisson process for faster algorithms.
result Improved computational efficiency with minor sample complexity increase.
We extend Kirman's model by introducing variable event time scale. The proposed flexible time scale is equivalent to the variable trading activity observed in financial markets. Stochastic version of the extended Kirman's agent based model is compared to the non-linear stochastic models of long-range memory in financia…
Paper generates full events from partons using machine learning.
problem Challenges of multiplicity variations between parton and reconstructed object spaces.
method Employing transformers, score-based models, and normalizing flows.
result Achieves remarkably accurate results in generating full events.
Unexpectedly, weighted Pareto variables are stochastically dominant.
problem Understanding stochastic dominance in Pareto distributions.
method Analyzing weighted averages of Pareto random variables with infinite mean.
result The weighted average of Pareto variables is stochastically dominant.
Sketch-based approach detects community events in evolving networks.
problem Community detection in time-varying networks.
method Maintains a small sketch graph to capture essential community structure.
result Efficiently identifies six key community events during network evolution.
Method estimates exogenous and endogenous factors from event times.
problem Estimating factors influencing event occurrence.
method Combines inhomogeneous Poisson and Hawkes processes, fits using free energy minimization.
result Four regimes identified based on factor detection.
Framework detects tipping points in complex systems using ML.
problem Detecting tipping points in complex, emergent systems.
method Combining manifold learning, neural networks, and Gaussian processes.
result Reduced-order models for mesoscopic and mean-field dynamics.
Algorithm samples constrained stochastic differential equations.
problem Sampling stochastic differential equations with complex constraints.
method Pathspace Metropolis-adjusted manifold sampling.
result Demonstrated effectiveness in various constrained conditions.
A new method uses deep learning to predict rare events in complex systems.
problem Predicting rare and extreme events in non-equilibrium systems.
method A deep learning approach that minimizes the geometrical action.
result The method accurately predicts rare events in various complex systems.
The paper provides a method to calculate CVA for vulnerable options in stochastic volatility models.
problem Evaluating Credit Value Adjustment (CVA) for options subject to default events in stochastic volatility models.
method Using Ito's calculus, the paper provides a general representation formula for CVA correction in SABR, Hull & White, and Heston models.
result The formula explicitly shows the correction in CVA due to the correlation between the underlying's price process and the default event.
Algorithm improves RL by discovering delayed causal relations.
problem Improving data-efficiency and interpretability in RL.
method Predicts observations with Markov assumption, introduces hidden variables to explain past events.
result Significantly improves RL performance on simulated and real tasks.
Proposes a model for multi-horizon probabilistic forecasting of time series influenced by asynchronous events.
problem Forecasting time series influenced by asynchronous events is challenging.
method Introduces Variational Synergetic Multi-Horizon Network (VSMHN), a deep conditional generative model combining deep point processes and variational recurrent neural networks.
result Produces accurate, sharp, and realistic probabilistic forecasts.
We propose Lomax delegate racing (LDR) to explicitly model the mechanism of survival under competing risks and to interpret how the covariates accelerate or decelerate the time to event. LDR explains non-monotonic covariate effects by racing a potentially infinite number of sub-risks, and consequently relaxes the ubiqu…
STRODE learns timings and dynamics from unlabeled time series data.
problem Learning dynamics of random event timings from unlabeled sensory inputs.
method Probabilistic Ordinary Differential Equation (STRODE) that samples from posterior point processes.
result Successfully infers event timings from synthetic and real-world datasets.
Study compares and accelerates deep learning for extreme events modeling.
problem Modeling extreme events for better prediction and understanding.
method Asynchronous distributed learning with local SGD.
result Significant training duration reduction up to 8x.
The paper models market crashes as phase transitions, finding dynamic transitions offer better predictions.
problem Understanding and predicting extreme financial events like market crashes.
method Employing phase transition theory, focusing on endogenous crashes, and comparing DPT, CPT, and SPT.
result Dynamic phase transitions provide more accurate predictions of market crashes compared to critical and stochastic models.
This paper uses advanced math to price special insurance bonds.
problem Pricing zero-coupon CAT bonds with complex trigger events.
method Develops two models using enlargement of filtration theory.
result Derives closed-form prices for zero-coupon CAT bonds.
S2P2 model improves predictive likelihoods for MTPPs.
problem Modeling irregular time intervals in event sequences.
method State-space point process model using deep state-space techniques.
result Empirically, S2P2 achieves state-of-the-art predictive likelihoods.
Social goods, such as healthcare, smart city, and information networks, often produce ordered event data in continuous time. The generative processes of these event data can be very complex, requiring flexible models to capture their dynamics. Temporal point processes offer an elegant framework for modeling event data …
Exact results on power-law distributions in systems with resets.
problem Understanding power-law distributions in systems with resets.
method Exact mathematical analysis of multiplicative processes with resets.
result Power-law distributions are built up over time and their moments behave quantitatively determined by parameters.
We investigate the problem of truth discovery based on opinions from multiple agents who may be unreliable or biased. We consider the case where agents' reliabilities or biases are correlated if they belong to the same community, which defines a group of agents with similar opinions regarding a particular event. An age…