Paper discusses the Fisher metric and differentiability in statistical models.
problem Understanding the relationship between Fisher metric and differentiability in statistical models.
method Comparison of different concepts and models in Information Geometry, mathematical statistics, and measure theory.
result Discussion of various models and their differentiability properties.
Develops a statistical framework for coherent risk estimation.
problem Constructing coherent risk estimators with sound financial and statistical properties.
method Inspired by axiomatic risk measure theory, defines coherent risk estimators through robust representations linked to L-estimators. result Demonstrates that coherence of a risk measure does not necessarily carry over to its estimators and shows alternative weight structures can lead to different outcomes.
The abstract discusses extending learning objectives to measure theory for better generalization.
problem Improving out-of-distribution generalization and weakly-supervised learning.
method Extending variational learning objectives to measures.
result New objectives on measures may lead to practical algorithms.
Statistical uncertainty of different filtration techniques for market network analysis is studied. Two measures of statistical uncertainty are discussed. One is based on conditional risk for multiple decision statistical procedures and another one is based on average fraction of errors. It is shown that for some import…
We derive formulas for F measures' standard error and confidence intervals.
problem Estimating F measures' accuracy with confidence.
method Analytic formulas based on asymptotic normality.
result Valid formulas for sample size planning.
Fisher width is a geometric measure of complexity on statistical manifolds.
problem Complexity measures on statistical manifolds
method Introducing Fisher width as a Fisher-geometric analogue of Gaussian width
result Fisher width retains key structural features of Gaussian width while capturing anisotropic geometric effects
The accurate measurement of security metrics is a critical research problem because an improper or inaccurate measurement process can ruin the usefulness of the metrics, no matter how well they are defined. This is a highly challenging problem particularly when the ground truth is unknown or noisy. In contrast to the w…
The study formalizes temporal precision and recall for anomaly detection in sequences.
problem Insufficient understanding of precision and recall in sequential anomaly detection.
method Formalized temporal precision and recall measures, developed time-tolerant confusion matrices, and demonstrated statistical significance.
result Precision and recall may overestimate performance with temporal tolerance.
The paper introduces a statistical test to assess and rank distance measures.
problem Assessing the relative information retained by different distance measures.
method Developed a statistical test to compare distance measures.
result Identifies the most informative distance measure among candidates.
We consider harmonic measures that arise from random walks on the mapping class group determined by probability distributions that have finite first moment with respect to the Teichmuller metric, and whose supports generate non-elementary subgroups. We prove that Teichmuller space with the Teichmuller metric is statist…
We clarify measurability assumptions in the agnostic PAC learning theorem.
problem Measurability assumptions in the Fundamental Theorem of Statistical Learning.
method Measure-theoretic scrutiny of existing proofs to extract minimal assumptions.
result Sound statement and detailed proof of the Fundamental Theorem in the agnostic setting.
Starting from the requirement that risk measures of financial portfolios should be based on their losses, not their gains, we define the notion of loss-based risk measure and study the properties of this class of risk measures. We characterize loss-based risk measures by a representation theorem and give examples of su…
Method generates dense fields from sparse measurements without needing spatial statistics or examples.
problem Generating dense physical fields from sparse measurements.
method Introduces a differentiable numerical simulator into neural network training.
result Superior results on fluid mechanics problems compared to statistical and neural network methods.
GOE statistics emerge from surface moduli space averages.
problem Understanding spectral statistics on hyperbolic surfaces.
method Defined a smooth linear statistic, averaged over moduli space, and analyzed variance.
result GOE statistics are recovered in the large genus and high energy limits.
Paper introduces a novel error measure for neural networks integrating statistical and information theory.
problem No single error measure is universally best for neural network training.
method Developed a novel error measure EExpAbs and integrated it into the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm. result Self-adaptive, dynamic learning algorithm improves both model accuracy and training process.
We simplify information measure computation using learned features.
problem Computing information measures from raw data is computationally expensive.
method Developed a separable design for computing information measures from learned feature representations.
result A variety of information measures can be computed efficiently through learned feature representations.
Triangular flows ensure statistical consistency and fast rates in generative modeling.
problem Ensuring statistical consistency and fast rates in generative models.
method Statistical guarantees and sample complexity bounds for triangular flow models using empirical process theory.
result Established statistical consistency and finite sample convergence rates for Kullback-Leibler estimator of Knöthe-Rosenblatt measure coupling.
Confidence intervals improve evaluation of binary prediction rules in data mining.
problem Uncertainty in performance measures estimation from finite datasets.
method Asymptotic normal approximations for confidence intervals, with a blurring correction.
result Improved finite sample coverage probabilities and general performance measures inference.
We consider the problem of estimating the support of a vector β∗∈Rp based on observations contaminated by noise. A significant body of work has studied behavior of ℓ1-relaxations when applied to measurement matrices drawn from standard dense ensembles (e.g., Gaussian, Bernoulli). In this paper,…
Measures three types of noise in LLM evaluations.
problem Separating signal from noise in LLM experiments.
method Defined and measured three types of noise: prediction, data, and total noise. Proposed the all-pairs paired method for statistical power.
result Total noise level is characteristic and predictable across all model pairs.
A scalable approach to learning from probability measures using quantization.
problem Efficiently comparing and manipulating large sets of probability measures.
method Quantization of probability measures to a fixed support, followed by optimal transport computations.
result Consistency and convergence guarantees for quantized measures in various OT-based tasks.
Unified theory of optimal transport for random measures.
problem Statistical uncertainty in optimal transport.
method Constructing L2 over Wasserstein space for random probability measures. result Unified treatment of random optimal transport and principled inference.
This paper derives -- considering a Gaussian setting -- closed form solutions of the statistics that Adrian and Brunnermeier and Acharya et al. have suggested as measures of systemic risk to be attached to individual banks. The statistics equal the product of statistic specific Beta-coefficients with the mean corrected…
The paper introduces new geometric methods to analyze radar electromagnetic wave statistics.
problem Analyzing spatio-temporal and polarimetric fluctuations of radar electromagnetic waves.
method Using statistical mechanics and Information Geometry, the paper defines a Fréchet barycentre and maximum entropy density for radar measurements.
result New tools for describing radar electromagnetic wave fluctuations, including a distance on covariance matrices.
We present an Automatic Relevance Determination prior Bayesian Neural Network(BNN-ARD) weight l2-norm measure as a feature importance statistic for the model-x knockoff filter. We show on both simulated data and the Norwegian wind farm dataset that the proposed feature importance statistic yields statistically signific…
Method measures weight similarity in neural networks using normalization and statistical inference.
problem Quantifying weight similarity in non-convex neural networks.
method Chain normalization rule and hypothesis-training-testing statistical inference.
result Weights of identical neural networks converge to similar local solutions.
The paper validates a centrality measure for financial networks during financial distress.
problem Systemic risk and shock propagation in financial networks.
method Statistical validation method for network centrality measures.
result The proposed centrality measure increases significantly during financial distress.
We develop a new statistical test for comparing variables with varying scales.
problem Comparing variables with different scales in multidimensional spaces.
method Order based on expectations of random variables, generalized stochastic dominance (GSD) order, regularized statistical test, linear optimization, imprecise probability models.
result Validated through multidimensional data from various fields.
Study compares statistical properties and power of divergence measures for credit risk monitoring.
problem Detecting distributional shifts in credit risk models.
method Derives statistical properties and chi-square benchmark values for Jensen-Shannon Divergence and Kullback-Leibler Divergence, demonstrating their applicability in credit risk monitoring.
result Jensen-Shannon Divergence and Kullback-Leibler Divergence follow chi-square distributions and reveal practical trade-offs in minimizing false positives vs. detecting changes.
Proposes a new measure to evaluate stability of statistical parameters under distributional shifts.
problem Difficulty in transferring knowledge across data sets due to distributional changes.
method Introduces a measure of instability quantifying sensitivity of statistical parameters to Kullback-Leibler divergence and directional shifts.
result The proposed measure can elucidate the type of shifts a parameter is sensitive to and improve estimation accuracy under shifted distributions.
Paper tackles measure estimation in barycentric coding model.
problem Estimating an unknown measure in the barycentric coding model.
method Geometric, statistical, and computational insights; quadratic optimization problem; empirical i.i.d. samples algorithm.
result Proves precise rates of convergence for algorithm, ensuring statistical consistency.
Study tests if deep hedging differs from delta hedging in a GARCH market model.
problem Whether deep hedging includes speculative components in a GARCH market.
method Tested in a GARCH-based market model, comparing deep hedging and delta hedging.
result The difference between deep hedging and delta hedging is speculative if risk measure does not prioritize adverse outcomes.
The paper provides bounds for the empirical angular measure and applies them to improve statistical learning in extreme regions.
problem Estimating the angular measure in high-dimensional data with different distributions.
method Established bounds for the maximal deviations of the empirical angular measure from the true measure, using rank transformation and analyzing the most extreme observations.
result The bounds provide performance guarantees for statistical learning procedures in extreme regions, such as binary classification and anomaly detection.
We develope a new and general notion of parametric measure models and statistical models on an arbitrary sample space Ω which does not assume that all measures of the model have the same null sets. This is given by a diffferentiable map from the parameter manifold M into the set of finite measures or probability me…
The statistical complexity of quantum circuits is studied using Rademacher complexity.
problem Measuring the richness of quantum hypothesis spaces.
method Applying Rademacher complexity to quantum circuits, investigating dependencies on resources, depth, width, and input/output registers.
result Bounds on the capacity of quantum neural networks constrained by circuit depth, width, and resource measures.
New insights into Markov chain geometry via positive transition measures.
problem Lack of statistical meaning in the space of transition probabilities.
method Constructing an extension of the space of transition probabilities using Amari's theory of positive measures.
result Introduction of a new dually flat structure for the space of positive transition measures.
Utilizing recently introduced concepts from statistics and quantitative risk management, we present a general variant of Batch Normalization (BN) that offers accelerated convergence of Neural Network training compared to conventional BN. In general, we show that mean and standard deviation are not always the most appro…
New measures generalize existing ones, linking information and risk.
problem Linking information measures and risk in statistical decision problems.
method Introducing new families of divergence measures and deriving an information processing equality.
result Extension of variational φ-divergence representation to multiple distributions. We introduce RSE to measure robustness in estimation problems.
problem Estimating statistical models from observed data.
method Developed theory for spectral functions of measures to compute RSE.
result RSE reveals a reciprocal relationship with problem complexity.
The paper examines expectile quadrangle properties in risk management.
problem Exploring the properties of expectile quadrangles in risk management.
method Rigorously examines the properties of expectile quadrangles.
result Rigorously examines the properties of expectile quadrangles.
Bayes factors and relative belief ratios are compared as measures of statistical evidence.
problem Which measure of evidence is more appropriate: Bayes factors or relative belief ratios?
method Comparison of Bayes factors and relative belief ratios, considering properties and restrictions.
result Relative belief ratio has better properties as a measure of evidence.
A new method for backtesting ES forecasts in banking.
problem Designing a model-free backtesting procedure for Expected Shortfall forecasts.
method Use e-values and e-processes to introduce backtest e-statistics for VaR and ES.
result The proposed method can be applied to various risk measures and statistical quantities.
A new test statistic measures discrepancy between conditional distributions.
problem Measuring the discrepancy between two conditional distributions.
method Proposes a Bregman matrix divergence-based statistic that avoids explicit distribution estimation.
result The new statistic inherits high-order statistics and demonstrates utility in multi-task learning, concept drift detection, and feature selection.
Algorithm finds best Dirac mass approximation of target measure.
problem Finding optimal Dirac mass approximation of target measure.
method Minimizes statistical distance between original measure and quantized version using Huber-energy kernel.
result HEMQ algorithm robust and versatile, matches intuitive behavior.
A new dynamical formulation of log-PCA captures local principal modes of geodesic variations.
problem Learning principal variations of random probability measures under Wasserstein geometry.
method Introducing a new dynamical formulation of log-PCA as a variational approach.
result Deriving a general statistical convergence rate for empirical WT-PCA.
Global EQG sums boundary states over manifold diffeomorphism classes.
problem Summing boundary states over manifold diffeomorphism classes.
method Formulated as classical statistical physics, weights determined by general principles.
result Hartle-Hawking state as a probability measure.
A cornerstone of human statistical learning is the ability to extract temporal regularities / patterns from random sequences. Here we present a method of computing pattern time statistics with generating functions for first-order Markov trials and independent Bernoulli trials. We show that the pattern time statistics c…
The uncertainty or the variability of the data may be treated by considering, rather than a single value for each data, the interval of values in which it may fall. This paper studies the derivation of basic description statistics for interval-valued datasets. We propose a geometrical approach in the determination of s…