A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Neural networks help create summary statistics for complex models.
Develops a new Bayesian inference method for discrete data.
While likelihood-based inference and its variants provide a statistically efficient and widely applicable approach to parametric inference, their application to models involving intractable likelihoods poses challenges. In this work, we study a class of minimum distance estimators for intractable generative models, tha…
New method uses neural exponential families for likelihood-free inference.
New method uses approximate KLD for intractable likelihood models.
NPE improves scalability and efficiency for ERGMs.
A new MCMC method for GPs tackles computational burden and intractable likelihoods.
We propose a novel approach to parameter estimation for simulator-based statistical models with intractable likelihood. Our proposed method involves recursive application of kernel ABC and kernel herding to the same observed data. We provide a theoretical explanation regarding why the approach works, showing (for the p…
New SMC samplers improve stochastic optimisation efficiency.
Contrastive learning simplifies statistical inference for complex models.
Likelihood-free methods such as approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) have extended the reach of statistical inference to problems with computationally intractable likelihoods. Such approaches perform well for small-to-moderate dimensional problems, but suffer a curse of dimensionality in the number of model parameter…
Privacy preserving mechanisms such as differential privacy inject additional randomness in the form of noise in the data, beyond the sampling mechanism. Ignoring this additional noise can lead to inaccurate and invalid inferences. In this paper, we incorporate the privacy mechanism explicitly into the likelihood functi…
Score matching offers efficient estimation for certain distributions.
Neural networks estimate spatial process likelihoods efficiently.
This paper shows how to perform likelihood inference for complex graphical models efficiently.
A large number of statistical models are "doubly-intractable": the likelihood normalising term, which is a function of the model parameters, is intractable, as well as the marginal likelihood (model evidence). This means that standard inference techniques to sample from the posterior, such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (…
Bayesian synthetic likelihood (BSL) is a popular method for estimating the parameter posterior distribution for complex statistical models and stochastic processes that possess a computationally intractable likelihood function. Instead of evaluating the likelihood, BSL approximates the likelihood of a judiciously chose…
Study agnostic RL in large state spaces with weak function approximation.
New framework for variational coresets simplifies Bayesian inference for complex models.
Standard maximum likelihood estimation cannot be applied to discrete energy-based models in the general case because the computation of exact model probabilities is intractable. Recent research has seen the proposal of several new estimators designed specifically to overcome this intractability, but virtually nothing i…
Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) methods are used to approximate posterior distributions in models with unknown or computationally intractable likelihoods. Both the accuracy and computational efficiency of ABC depend on the choice of summary statistic, but outside of special cases where the optimal summary statis…
New sampling methods improve statistical efficiency for intractable targets.
Models for which the likelihood function can be evaluated only up to a parameter-dependent unknown normalising constant, such as Markov random field models, are used widely in computer science, statistical physics, spatial statistics, and network analysis. However, Bayesian analysis of these models using standard Monte…
This review article surveys data augmentation MCMC algorithms.
Du, Kakade, Wang, and Yang recently established intriguing lower bounds on sample complexity, which suggest that reinforcement learning with a misspecified representation is intractable. Another line of work, which centers around a statistic called the eluder dimension, establishes tractability of problems similar to t…
Bayesian approach for inhomogeneous Poisson process intensity estimation.
Approximate Bayesian inference on the basis of summary statistics is well-suited to complex problems for which the likelihood is either mathematically or computationally intractable. However the methods that use rejection suffer from the curse of dimensionality when the number of summary statistics is increased. Here w…
Deep learning used for parameter estimation in hard-to-infer models.
Several statistical models are given in the form of unnormalized densities, and calculation of the normalization constant is intractable. We propose estimation methods for such unnormalized models with missing data. The key concept is to combine imputation techniques with estimators for unnormalized models including no…
I consider two problems in machine learning and statistics: the problem of estimating the joint probability density of a collection of random variables, known as density estimation, and the problem of inferring model parameters when their likelihood is intractable, known as likelihood-free inference. The contribution o…
Python package for fast simulation-based inference.
Active learning method for ABC statistics selection reduces expert work and improves posterior estimates.
In structured prediction problems where we have indirect supervision of the output, maximum marginal likelihood faces two computational obstacles: non-convexity of the objective and intractability of even a single gradient computation. In this paper, we bypass both obstacles for a class of what we call linear indirectl…
In this paper, we develop connections between two seemingly disparate, but central, models in robust statistics: Huber's epsilon-contamination model and the heavy-tailed noise model. We provide conditions under which this connection provides near-statistically-optimal estimators. Building on this connection, we provide…
New algorithms learn POMDPs efficiently with hindsight observability.
We discuss the relative merits of optimistic and randomized approaches to exploration in reinforcement learning. Optimistic approaches presented in the literature apply an optimistic boost to the value estimate at each state-action pair and select actions that are greedy with respect to the resulting optimistic value f…
Neural network estimates network models efficiently.
The paper proposes using Autoencoders to learn summary statistics for Bayesian inference.
Robust estimation under Huber's -contamination model has become an important topic in statistics and theoretical computer science. Statistically optimal procedures such as Tukey's median and other estimators based on depth functions are impractical because of their computational intractability. In this paper, we est…
This paper solves the intractability barrier in non-parametric information geometry by introducing a novel framework.
Bayesian quadrature uses probabilistic models for estimating intractable integrals.
Complex computer simulations are commonly required for accurate data modelling in many scientific disciplines, making statistical inference challenging due to the intractability of the likelihood evaluation for the observed data. Furthermore, sometimes one is interested on inference drawn over a subset of the generativ…
We derive a new discrepancy statistic for measuring differences between two probability distributions based on combining Stein's identity with the reproducing kernel Hilbert space theory. We apply our result to test how well a probabilistic model fits a set of observations, and derive a new class of powerful goodness-o…
This paper bridges statistical and machine learning approaches to variational inference.
Probabilistic graphical models are a key tool in machine learning applications. Computing the partition function, i.e., normalizing constant, is a fundamental task of statistical inference but it is generally computationally intractable, leading to extensive study of approximation methods. Iterative variational methods…
Paper generalizes tensor-train approximation for complex random variables.
Symmetry helps VI recover certain statistics.
Bayesian inference for models that have an intractable partition function is known as a doubly intractable problem, where standard Monte Carlo methods are not applicable. The past decade has seen the development of auxiliary variable Monte Carlo techniques (Møller et al., 2006; Murray et al., 2006) for tackling this pr…