A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
This paper critiques the Standardized Measurement Approach (SMA) for operational risk and recommends maintaining Advanced Measurement Approach (AMA).
Several authors have recently developed risk-sensitive policy gradient methods that augment the standard expected cost minimization problem with a measure of variability in cost. These studies have focused on specific risk-measures, such as the variance or conditional value at risk (CVaR). In this work, we extend the p…
Paper discusses methods to measure privacy in synthetic tabular data.
Recently, Basel Committee for Banking Supervision proposed to replace all approaches, including Advanced Measurement Approach (AMA), for operational risk capital with a simple formula referred to as the Standardised Measurement Approach (SMA). This paper discusses and studies the weaknesses and pitfalls of SMA such as …
Proposes Neural Complexity (NC) for predicting and explaining generalization in deep neural networks.
Interestingness measures provide information that can be used to prune or select association rules. A given value of an interestingness measure is often interpreted relative to the overall range of the values that the interestingness measure can take. However, properties of individual association rules restrict the val…
Standardized fairness measures for continuous risk scores using Wasserstein distance.
Active learning is a powerful approach to analyzing data effectively. We show that the feasibility of active learning depends crucially on the choice of measure with respect to which the query is being optimized. The standard information gain, for example, does not permit an accurate evaluation with a small committee, …
On March 4th 2016 the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision published a consultative document where a new methodology, called the Standardized Measurement Approach (SMA), is introduced for computing Operational Risk regulatory capital for banks. In this note, the behavior of the SMA is studied under a variety of hypot…
We consider a setting where an agent's uncertainty is represented by a set of probability measures, rather than a single measure. Measure-bymeasure updating of such a set of measures upon acquiring new information is well-known to suffer from problems; agents are not always able to learn appropriately. To deal with the…
We review the nature of some well-known phenomena such as volatility smiles, convexity adjustments and parallel derivative markets. We propose that the market is incomplete and postulate the existence of intrinsic risks in every contingent claim as a basis for understanding these phenomena. In a continuous time framewo…
In this work we consider three problems of the standard market approach to pricing of credit index options: the definition of the index spread is not valid in general, the usually considered payoff leads to a pricing which is not always defined, and the candidate numeraire one would use to define a pricing measure is n…
In this paper, we present an algorithm for the sparse signal recovery problem that incorporates damped Gaussian generalized approximate message passing (GGAMP) into Expectation-Maximization (EM)-based sparse Bayesian learning (SBL). In particular, GGAMP is used to implement the E-step in SBL in place of matrix inversio…
We introduce a probabilistic approach to the LMS filter. By means of an efficient approximation, this approach provides an adaptable step-size LMS algorithm together with a measure of uncertainty about the estimation. In addition, the proposed approximation preserves the linear complexity of the standard LMS. Numerical…
We derive formulas for F measures' standard error and confidence intervals.
In this paper we consider an information theoretic approach for the accounting classification process. We propose a matrix formalism and an algorithm for calculations of information theoretic measures associated to accounting classification. The formalism may be useful for further generalizations and computer-based imp…
New depth function for partial orders helps compare machine learning algorithms.
This paper proposes an organized generalization of Newman and Girvan's modularity measure for graph clustering. Optimized via a deterministic annealing scheme, this measure produces topologically ordered graph clusterings that lead to faithful and readable graph representations based on clustering induced graphs. Topog…
We study compressing empirical measures in finite RKHSs using convex optimization.
Unified approach for fair classification with overlapping groups.
Machine learning improves measuring climate adaptation impacts.
New f-Betas for portfolio optimization using f-divergence risk measures.
We investigate the issue of model selection and the use of the nonconformity (strangeness) measure in batch learning. Using the nonconformity measure we propose a new training algorithm that helps avoid the need for Cross-Validation or Leave-One-Out model selection strategies. We provide a new generalisation error boun…
A new method for CT using graph-based regularization.
Reliable calculations of financial risk require that the fat-tailed nature of prices changes is included in risk measures. To this end, a non-Gaussian approach to financial risk management is presented, modeling the power-law tails of the returns distribution in terms of a Student-t distribution. Non-Gaussian closed-fo…
Generative network integrates into ROM for PDEs, matching measurements and estimating uncertainties.
We demonstrate a limitation of discounted expected utility, a standard approach for representing the preference to risk when future cost is discounted. Specifically, we provide an example of the preference of a decision maker that appears to be rational but cannot be represented with any discounted expected utility. A …
Improved nested simulation for financial risk measurement.
The standard taxonomy of predictive uncertainty is inconsistent with standard measures.
Geometrically proves majorizing measure theorem on Hadamard manifolds.
A new framework for robust risk measurement and portfolio optimization.
Improved PINNs for solving PDEs with unknown measurement noise.
This work introduces significativity indices for agreement values between classifiers.
Develops non-standard analysis for coherent risk estimation.
We introduce the formalism of generalized Fourier transforms in the context of risk management. We develop a general framework to efficiently compute the most popular risk measures, Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall (also known as Conditional Value-at-Risk). The only ingredient required by our approach is the knowle…
Cancer is one of the leading cause of death, worldwide. Many believe that genomic data will enable us to better predict the survival time of these patients, which will lead to better, more personalized treatment options and patient care. As standard survival prediction models have a hard time coping with the high-dimen…
Proposes a new stability measure for model fitting on similar feature data sets.
New risk measures control subgroup imbalances, improving PAC-Bayesian bounds.
New approach measures systemic risk by absorbing shocks before financial systems deteriorate.
Realization of uncertainty of prices is captured by volatility, that is the tendency of prices to vary along a period of time. This is generally measured as standard deviation of daily returns. In this paper we propose and investigate the application of fuzzy transform and its inverse as an alternative measure of volat…
A new measure predicts deep learning model performance.
New method for long-term sampling of complex dynamics on curved spaces.
Reframed GES uses a neural conditional dependence measure for consistent causal structure learning.
An elementary proof shows submodular functions can be represented as measure suprema.
Reliable calculations of financial risk require that the fat-tailed nature of prices changes is included in risk measures. To this end, a non-Gaussian approach to financial risk management is presented, modeling the power-law tails of the returns distribution in terms of a Student- (or Tsallis) distribution. Non-Gau…
S2D efficiently trains models to estimate uncertainty without increasing resource costs.
Study combines VaR and ES forecasts using MCS to improve risk predictions.
The motivation of this work is to improve the performance of standard stacking approaches or ensembles, which are composed of simple, heterogeneous base models, through the integration of the generation and selection stages for regression problems. We propose two extensions to the standard stacking approach. In the fir…