ESNs with transfer learning predict long-term chaotic patterns in spatiotemporal dynamical systems.
problem Predicting long-term statistical patterns of spatiotemporally chaotic dynamical systems.
method Echo state networks (ESNs) with transfer learning.
result ESNs with transfer learning accurately predict long-term statistical properties of spatiotemporally chaotic PDEs.
Thermalizer stabilizes autoregressive models for long-term predictions in chaotic systems.
problem Long-term predictions in chaotic spatiotemporal systems are unreliable due to trajectory divergence.
method Diffusion models are used to implicitly estimate the score of an invariant measure, which stabilizes autoregressive emulators by applying denoising during inference.
result Thermalization extends the time horizon of stable predictions by an order of magnitude in chaotic systems.
New method learns chaotic dynamics from single noisy trajectory.
problem Chaos in complex systems is hard to model accurately with machine learning.
method Adversarial optimal transport objectives to learn summary statistics and emulator from single noisy data.
result Emulators trained with proposed objectives have significantly improved long-term statistical fidelity.
The study reveals chaos in geometric objects embedded in higher dimensions.
problem Understanding chaos in higher-dimensional geometries.
method Analyzing the embedding of chaos in geometric objects of varying dimensions.
result Chaos in higher dimensions is a one-dimensional geometrical object embedded in a higher-dimensional object.
The resilience of low-degree Rademacher chaos is studied, providing probabilistic lower bounds.
problem Understanding how much a Rademacher chaos can withstand adversarial sign-flips without significant probability changes.
method Probabilistic lower-bound guarantees for the resilience of Rademacher chaos of arbitrary degree.
result Probabilistic lower-bound guarantees for the resilience of Rademacher chaos of arbitrary degree, especially meaningful for constant degree.
The paper discusses the main ideas of the chaos theory and presents mainly the importance of the nonlinearities in the mathematical models. Chaos and order are apparently two opposite terms. The fact that in chaos can be found a certain precise symmetry (Feigenbaum numbers) is even more surprising. As an illustration o…
This paper reviews spatial and spatiotemporal volatility models.
problem Capturing spatial dependence in volatility of spatial and spatiotemporal data.
method Review of time series volatility models and their extensions.
result Comparison and practical recommendations for spatial and spatiotemporal volatility models.
Study on spin random fields using chaos decomposition for cosmic microwave background modeling.
problem Modeling polarization of Cosmic Microwave Background using spin random fields.
method Explicit Wiener-Itô chaos decomposition of area measures of level sets.
result Reveals a clear difference between high frequency regime and zero spin case.
In this paper we calibrate chaotic models for interest rates to market data using a polynomial-exponential parametrization for the chaos coefficients. We identify a subclass of one-variable models that allow us to introduce complexity from higher order chaos in a controlled way while retaining considerable analytic tra…
New insights into neural network training efficiency.
problem Understanding the optimal initialization for deep neural networks.
method Exploring the edge of chaos and saturation of tanh activation function.
result The line of uniformity in phase space intersects the edge of chaos, indicating saturation begins to hinder training efficiency.
Bayesian Complementary Kernelized Learning models complex spatiotemporal data.
problem Modeling complex, nonstationary, and nonseparable spatiotemporal data.
method Integrates kernelized low-rank tensor factorization and short-range spatiotemporal Gaussian Processes.
result BCKL offers superior performance in providing accurate posterior mean and high-quality uncertainty estimates.
Enhances polynomial chaos models with uncertainty intervals.
problem Uncertainty quantification in surrogate models.
method Jackknife-based conformal prediction integrated into polynomial chaos expansions.
result Produces accurate predictive intervals for low-accuracy models.
Study shows uniform-time chaos propagation in mean field Langevin dynamics.
problem Understanding the convergence of marginal distributions in mean field dynamics.
method Assumed functional convexity of energy, used Lp-convergence and Wasserstein metrics. result Uniform-in-time propagation of chaos proved in both L2-Wasserstein and relative entropy. Dynamic model captures spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal volatility effects.
problem Analyzing volatility in spatial and temporal networks.
method Dynamic spatiotemporal and network ARCH model with common factors, Bayesian estimation.
result Model captures strong spatial/network interactions and spillover effects.
Package {mlr3spatiotempcv} simplifies spatiotemporal resampling methods in R.
problem Assessing and tuning spatial and spatiotemporal machine learning models.
method Integrates various spatiotemporal resampling methods into the {mlr3} framework.
result Provides a consistent interface for spatiotemporal resampling methods.
The paper introduces invariants to describe period-doubling routes to chaos in dynamical systems.
problem Understanding the dynamics of period-doubling routes to chaos in complex systems.
method Introducing three topological invariants to describe the topology of period-doubling routes to chaos.
result Ascribed symbolic dynamics to perturbations of the Shilnikov homoclinic scenario and dynamics of the Henon map.
BKTR models spatiotemporal data with scalable tensor regression.
problem High computational cost in applying STVC to large-scale spatiotemporal data.
method Summarize STVC coefficients in a tensor, reformulate as low-rank tensor regression, incorporate GP priors for local dependencies.
result BKTR efficiently models large spatiotemporal datasets with reduced parameters and local dependencies.
Model reduction methods aim to describe complex dynamic phenomena using only relevant dynamical variables, decreasing computational cost, and potentially highlighting key dynamical mechanisms. In the absence of special dynamical features such as scale separation or symmetries, the time evolution of these variables typi…
New method learns spatiotemporal dynamics from random point process observations.
problem Challenges in modeling spatiotemporal dynamics from randomly collected data.
method Integration of neural differential equations, neural point processes, implicit neural representations, and amortized variational inference.
result Significant improvements in predictive accuracy and computational efficiency compared to existing methods.
Uniform-in-time analysis for Stein Variational Gradient Descent across various metrics.
problem Understanding long-term behavior of finite-particle systems in relation to their mean-field limits.
method Developed uniform-in-time propagation-of-chaos results for continuous-time SVGD using cutoff strategies and finite-dimensional theories.
result Uniform-in-time propagation-of-chaos bounds in various metrics, including Langevin kernel Stein discrepancy, Wasserstein-1, and Wasserstein-2 distances.
Kriformer uses graph transformers to estimate data in sparse sensor areas.
problem Sparse sensor deployment and unreliable data in spatiotemporal kriging tasks.
method Graph transformer model with positional encoding and attention mechanisms.
result Kriformer excels in representing unobserved locations in spatiotemporal kriging tasks.
Chronnet models spatiotemporal data using chronological networks.
problem Handling large spatiotemporal datasets efficiently.
method Chronnet: Grid-based network model representing events chronologically.
result Chronnet captures frequent patterns, spatial changes, outliers, and clusters.
Researchers use quantum chaos and RMT to analyze turbulence, revealing unique scaling laws.
problem Understanding the statistical structure and scaling laws of turbulence.
method Applied tools from quantum chaos and Random Matrix Theory to analyze turbulence datasets.
result Turbulence Gram matrices exhibit power-law scalings distinct from classical chaos and random data.
Neural networks solve SPDEs using Wiener chaos expansion.
problem Solving stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs) numerically.
method Using neural networks in the truncated Wiener chaos expansion.
result Approximation rates for learning SPDE solutions with noise.
The paper models asset prices using Wiener chaos expansions for efficient calibration to implied volatility surfaces.
problem Calibrating to implied volatility surfaces using flexible martingale models.
method Constructing an over-parameterized martingale model based on Wiener chaos expansions and conditional expectations.
result The method enables fast calibration to implied volatility surfaces and demonstrates flexibility through numerical experiments.
Paper uses DMD to embed time in spatiotemporal forecasting.
problem Forecasting long-range seasonal dependencies in spatiotemporal data.
method Dynamic Mode Decomposition (DMD) for time representation.
result DMD-based embedding improves long-horizon forecasting accuracy.
The Financial Chaos Index models stock market volatility across three regimes based on mutual price fluctuations.
problem Capturing regime-dependent volatility in stock markets.
method Developed a regime-switching framework using the Financial Chaos Index (FCIX) and elastic net regression.
result Identified three market regimes: low-chaos, intermediate-chaos, and high-chaos, each with distinct volatility characteristics.
In this letter, as a proof of concept, we propose a deep learning-based approach to attack the chaos-based image encryption algorithm in \cite{guan2005chaos}. The proposed method first projects the chaos-based encrypted images into the low-dimensional feature space, where essential information of plain images has been …
This paper surveys differential privacy methods for transportation spatiotemporal data.
problem Protecting user privacy in public release of spatiotemporal data.
method Review of differential privacy mechanisms and their application in transportation.
result Challenges in deploying and adopting differential privacy in transportation.
GATGPT uses LLMs with graph attention for spatiotemporal data imputation.
problem Missing values in spatiotemporal data due to sensor malfunctions and data transmission errors.
method Integrates pre-trained large language models with graph attention mechanisms.
result GATGPT achieves comparable results to deep learning benchmarks on real-world datasets.
New unsupervised transfer learning method for spatiotemporal tasks.
problem Transfer knowledge from unsupervised models to new predictive tasks.
method Differentiable framework with Transferable Memory Unit (TMU).
result Significant improvements on spatiotemporal prediction benchmarks.
A new neural network model uses polynomial chaos theory to improve neural signal processing.
problem Redundant neural signal representation in DANNs.
method Employing arbitrary polynomial chaos theory to construct orthonormal representations in DANNs.
result Improves neural signal processing by reducing redundancy and enhancing orthogonality.
This paper proposes a geometry-aware active learning framework for spatiotemporal dynamic systems.
problem Challenges in modeling complex dynamic systems with 3D geometries and time evolution.
method Geometry-aware spatiotemporal Gaussian Process (G-ST-GP) and adaptive active learning strategy.
result The proposed framework outperforms traditional methods in predicting high-dimensional dynamic behaviors.
A new method for traffic data imputation considering spatiotemporal correlations.
problem Traffic data imputation, especially for high-level missing scenarios.
method Spatiotemporal regularized Tucker decomposition approach.
result The proposed method outperforms existing methods on real-world traffic datasets.
A new method uses PDEs to predict spatiotemporal phenomena.
problem Predicting high-dimensional spatiotemporal data.
method Partial differential equations (PDEs) for spatiotemporal disentanglement.
result The method outperforms existing models in accuracy and applicability.
ProGen improves spatiotemporal forecasting with SDEs and diffusion models.
problem Complex spatial and temporal dependencies in spatiotemporal data.
method ProGen uses Stochastic Differential Equations and diffusion-based generative models.
result ProGen outperforms state-of-the-art models on traffic datasets.
Basis adaptation in Homogeneous Chaos spaces rely on a suitable rotation of the underlying Gaussian germ. Several rotations have been proposed in the literature resulting in adaptations with different convergence properties. In this paper we present a new adaptation mechanism that builds on compressive sensing algorith…
Casper uses causal graph neural networks to improve spatiotemporal time series imputation.
problem Imputing missing values in spatiotemporal time series with confounders and non-causal correlations.
method Casper introduces a novel Prompt Based Decoder (PBD) and Spatiotemporal Causal Attention (SCA) to block confounders and discover causal relationships.
result Casper outperforms baselines and effectively discovers causal relationships in spatiotemporal time series imputation.
In this paper we study the price dynamics in a simple model of financial markets with heterogeneous agents. We concentrate on how increases in the total number of active traders influences fluctuations of asset prices. We find that a curious route to chaos is observed when the total number of [active traders] increases…
Chaos and nonlinear economic dynamics are addressed for a quantum coupled map lattice model of an artificial economy, with quantized supply and demand equilibrium conditions. The measure theoretic properties and the patterns that emerge in both the economic business volume dynamics' diagrams as well as in the quantum m…
Sparse Polynomial Chaos expansions improve accuracy and efficiency in simulations.
problem Challenges in computational efficiency and accuracy for Polynomial Chaos modeling.
method Sparse Bayesian learning using Variational Relevance Vector Machines.
result Sparse Polynomial Chaos expansions achieve comparable performance to compressive sensing with fewer data points.
Deep learning improves chaotic dynamics filtering without ensemble.
problem Discovering efficient DA schemes for chaotic dynamics.
method Residual Convolutional Neural Network for the analysis step.
result Deep learning achieves ensemble filtering accuracy without an ensemble.
Gradient-enhanced GSA uses Poincaré chaos expansions for accurate sensitivity analysis.
problem Accurately estimating Sobol' indices with limited data.
method Integrates sparse, gradient-enhanced regression with Poincaré chaos expansions for derivative-based sensitivity analysis.
result Accurately estimated Sobol' indices using limited data.
Paper proposes a new model for imputing missing spatiotemporal traffic data.
problem Missing data and sparsity in spatiotemporal traffic data.
method Low-rank tensor completion (LRTC) framework with truncated nuclear norm (TNN).
result The proposed model outperforms state-of-the-art imputation models in various scenarios.
It has long been suggested that the biological brain operates at some critical point between two different phases, possibly order and chaos. Despite many indirect empirical evidence from the brain and analytical indication on simple neural networks, the foundation of this hypothesis on generic non-linear systems remain…
This study improves weather forecasting accuracy with spatiotemporal models.
problem Complexity and resource-intensive nature of weather forecasting.
method Spatiotemporal forecasting models integrating machine learning and deep neural networks.
result Spatiotemporal models reduce computational costs and improve accuracy.
A new stochastic algorithm approximates optimal distributions without requiring propagation of chaos.
problem Optimizing functionals over probability distributions using finite particle systems.
method Virtual particle stochastic approximation, viewed as a form of stochastic gradient descent in the Wasserstein space.
result The algorithm's output converges to the optimal distribution and produces i.i.d. samples.
This paper studies uncertainty quantification in deep spatiotemporal forecasting.
problem Uncertainty quantification in deep spatiotemporal forecasting models.
method Analysis of UQ methods from Bayesian and frequentist perspectives, including statistical decision theory.
result Different UQ methods have different strengths and weaknesses, with Bayesian methods being more robust in mean prediction and frequentist methods providing more extensive coverage.