Improved probabilistic solar irradiance forecasting models for grid integration.
problem Enhancing accuracy of solar irradiance forecasts for grid integration.
method Developed and calibrated probabilistic models using post-hoc calibration techniques.
result NGBoost model with CRUDE calibration achieves comparable performance to numerical weather prediction models.
Using artificial neural network for the prediction of heat demand has attracted more and more attention. Weather conditions, such as ambient temperature, wind speed and direct solar irradiance, have been identified as key input parameters. In order to further improve the model accuracy, it is of great importance to und…
Deep learning models predict solar irradiance for short-term forecasts.
problem Accurate prediction of solar irradiance for renewable energy integration.
method Sequence-to-sequence LSTM models for GHI forecasting, incorporating spatial-temporal features.
result LSTM models outperform traditional techniques in short-term GHI forecasting.
CGAE model predicts solar irradiance with high reliability and sharpness.
problem Probabilistic spatio-temporal solar irradiance forecasting.
method Convolutional Graph Auto-Encoder (CGAE) based on spectral graph convolutions and variational Bayesian inference.
result State-of-the-art performance in probabilistic solar irradiance prediction.
A model predicts solar irradiance without local data using satellite and weather forecasts.
problem Forecasting solar irradiance without local measurements for geographically dispersed solar generators.
method Uses satellite data and weather forecasts with a deep neural network trained on a subset of ground data.
result Proposed model performs as well or better than local models across 25 locations and prediction horizons.
Unified architecture for multi-time-scale solar irradiance forecasting reduces RMSE.
problem Non-stationary solar irradiance variability increases grid operating costs.
method Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) and Long-Short-Term Memory Networks (LSTMs) for multi-time-scale predictions.
result Unified architecture reduces RMSE by 71.5% compared to best-performing methods.
The study improves solar irradiance forecasts for Chile using machine learning.
problem Accurate short-term PV power forecasts for Chile's Atacama Desert.
method 8-member ensemble forecasts of solar irradiance using WRF model, calibrated with EMOS and DRN.
result Machine learning-based post-processing methods improve forecast accuracy and calibration.
Study evaluates post-processing methods for improving solar power forecasts.
problem Improving accuracy of probabilistic solar energy forecasts through model chain approaches.
method Systematically evaluates different post-processing strategies for ensemble weather forecasts and direct solar power forecasting.
result Post-processing significantly improves solar power generation forecasts, especially when applied to power predictions.
Quantum kernel improves solar irradiance forecasting.
problem Improving short-term solar irradiance forecasting accuracy.
method Quantum Fourier Transform kernel in KRR with feature mixing.
result Consistently improves R2 and nRMSE over classical kernels.
In this paper, we present a method to determine the global horizontal irradiance (GHI) from the power measurements of one or more PV systems, located in the same neighborhood. The method is completely unsupervised and is based on a physical model of a PV plant. The precise assessment of solar irradiance is pivotal for …
Unified NICEk metrics improve solar forecasting accuracy.
problem Lack of suitable error metrics for multidimensional solar irradiance forecasting.
method Introducing NICEk framework with Lk norms for evaluating forecasting models.
result NICESigma consistently outperforms traditional metrics in discriminative power and statistical significance.
With the increasing penetration of solar power into power systems, forecasting becomes critical in power system operations. In this paper, an hourly-similarity (HS) based method is developed for 1-hour-ahead (1HA) global horizontal irradiance (GHI) forecasting. This developed method utilizes diurnal patterns, statistic…
Solar forecasting accuracy is affected by weather conditions, and weather awareness forecasting models are expected to improve the performance. However, it may not be available and reliable to classify different forecasting tasks by using only meteorological weather categorization. In this paper, an unsupervised cluste…
We propose a novel method to forecast the future from the present using time-reversed data.
problem Forecasting the future from past data, exploiting temporal asymmetry.
method Retrodictive forecasting via inverse MAP optimization over a Conditional Variational Autoencoder (CVAE).
result The method successfully predicts future events in time-reversible and irreversible processes.
Develops framework for valuing and assessing risk of renewable PPAs.
problem Valuation and risk assessment of non-standard renewable PPAs.
method Formalizes payoff structures, derives fair contract prices, proposes market risk-assessment methodology.
result Fair prices and risk profiles vary across technologies and contractual structures.
New method improves wind and solar energy forecasts by 48 hours.
problem Volatility of wind and solar energy makes accurate forecasts difficult.
method Two-step machine learning approach to calibrate ensemble forecasts.
result Statistical post-processing improves forecast skill by at least 48 hours.
DDG-DA predicts future data distribution to adapt models for predictable concept drift.
problem Adapting models to streaming data with predictable concept drift.
method Train a predictor to forecast future data distribution, generate training samples, and train models on them.
result Significant improvement on multiple models in real-world tasks.
Modeling solar ramping events with spatio-temporal point processes.
problem Predicting solar ramping events influenced by weather conditions.
method Novel spatio-temporal categorical point process model.
result Effective modeling of spatio-temporal correlations in solar ramping events.
The study finds solar terms significantly impact China's stock market returns and volatility.
problem Investigating the effect of solar terms on China's stock market.
method Regression framework, analyzing multiple solar terms and their impact on return and volatility.
result Solar terms 1, 3, and 4 cause significant positive returns, while 8, 11, and 14 bring high volatility.
DA improves solar wind forecasts by updating model boundary conditions.
problem Improving solar wind forecasting accuracy.
method Variational Data Assimilation with solar wind model and in-situ observations.
result DA forecasts are more accurate than non-DA forecasts, especially when STEREO-B's latitude is offset from Earth.
Solar algorithm selects variables faster and more accurately in high-dimensional data.
problem Variable selection in high-dimensional data with high accuracy and stability.
method Subsample-ordered least-angle regression (solar) and its coordinate descent generalization (solar-cd) using L0 norm solution path averaging. result Solar selects variables with high accuracy and stability, reducing redundant variable selection.
Paper uses polar field data to improve solar flare prediction accuracy.
problem Improving solar flare prediction accuracy using machine learning.
method Incorporates polar field data into machine learning models for solar flare classification.
result Improves solar flare prediction performance by up to 10.1% using a novel probabilistic mixture of experts model.
The study compares statistical post-processing methods for solar radiation forecasts.
problem Improving accuracy and uncertainty quantification of solar radiation forecasts.
method Statistical post-processing techniques using relationships between meteorological variables and solar radiation.
result Quantile regression and generalized random forests generally perform best in probabilistic forecasts.
Solar improves variable selection in high-dimensional data with complicated dependence structures.
problem Variable selection in ultrahigh dimensional data with severe multicollinearity and grouping effect issues.
method Subsample-ordered least angle regression (Solar) for ultrahigh dimensional data.
result Solar yields substantial improvements in sparsity, stability, and accuracy of variable selection compared to traditional methods.
Enhances solar flare prediction with advanced preprocessing and contrastive learning.
problem Accurate prediction of solar flares to mitigate risks to astronauts and equipment.
method Advanced data preprocessing pipeline and contrastive learning with GRU regression model.
result Exceptional True Skill Statistic (TSS) scores, surpassing previous methods.
New solar tracking system uses computer vision and low-cost hardware.
problem Current solar tracking systems are expensive and have operational issues.
method Low-cost hardware, computer vision, and deep learning.
result The new system shows great potential and can improve solar tracking performance.
Interprets LSTM solar flare predictions using SHARP parameters.
problem Understanding the dynamics of solar flares from LSTM predictions.
method Time-series clustering of SHARP parameters to interpret LSTM model.
result Identifies key SHARP parameters for strong solar flares.
Study evaluates deep learning models for solar flare prediction with interpretability analysis.
problem Lack of interpretability in deep learning models for solar flare prediction.
method Proximity-based metric for analyzing attribution maps generated by Guided Grad-CAM.
result Models' predictions align with active region characteristics, offering insights into their behavior.
Python tool creates machine-learning-ready solar dataset.
problem Creating a usable dataset for space weather forecasting.
method Python tool generates dataset from SoHO and SDO images, applying pre-processing.
result Dataset is machine-learning ready, free of missing data, and temporally synced.
Study optimizes SREC generation and trading in solar energy markets.
problem Optimizing solar energy generation and trading in SREC markets.
method Mean-field game approach to solve stochastic game with heterogeneous agents.
result Characterized firms' optimal controls and equilibrium SREC price.
Power supply from renewable resources is on a global rise where it is forecasted that renewable generation will surpass other types of generation in a foreseeable future. Increased generation from renewable resources, mainly solar and wind, exposes the power grid to more vulnerabilities, conceivably due to their variab…
We consider multi-task regression models where the observations are assumed to be a linear combination of several latent node functions and weight functions, which are both drawn from Gaussian process priors. Driven by the problem of developing scalable methods for forecasting distributed solar and other renewable powe…
GPRNs accurately model stellar activity affecting RV measurements of exoplanets.
problem Stellar activity limits detection and characterisation of exoplanets.
method Gaussian Process Regression Networks (GPRNs) for joint analysis of RV data and stellar activity indicators.
result GPRNs accurately describe solar RV data, correlating with activity at separations of a few days.
Study uses machine learning to analyze solar emissions.
problem Explaining the high temperature of the solar corona.
method Unsupervised machine learning to characterize impulsive emissions.
result Characterized over 34,500 features as 2D elliptical Gaussians.
A graph neural network improves multivariate post-processing of ensemble forecasts.
problem Systematic biases in ensemble forecasts and loss of dependencies across forecast dimensions.
method A composite-Loss Graph Neural Network (dualGNN) trained with a composite loss function combining ES and VS.
result The dualGNN outperforms traditional methods in multivariate verification metrics and captures spatial relationships.
As renewable distributed energy resources (DERs) penetrate the power grid at an accelerating speed, it is essential for operators to have accurate solar photovoltaic (PV) energy forecasting for efficient operations and planning. Generally, observed weather data are applied in the solar PV generation forecasting model w…
The non-stationarity characteristic of the solar power renders traditional point forecasting methods to be less useful due to large prediction errors. This results in increased uncertainties in the grid operation, thereby negatively affecting the reliability and increased cost of operation. This research paper proposes…
Optimal solar energy production and trading strategies in SREC markets identified.
problem Optimizing solar energy production and trading in SREC markets.
method Formulated a stochastic control problem, accounting for generation and trading costs, and developed a numerical algorithm to solve the control problem.
result An optimal firm's generation and trading behavior can be separated into various regimes based on the marginal benefit of obtaining an additional SREC.
Enhances solar cell efficiency prediction using deep neural networks.
problem Predicting HOMO values for organic solar cells from limited experimental data.
method Ensemble deep neural network (SINet) using SMILES and InChI molecular representations.
result Significant performance improvement from transfer learning and dual molecular representations.
Bayesian framework for solar magnetogram super-resolution with uncertainty quantification.
problem Uncertainty in super-resolving solar magnetic field images.
method Bayesian decomposition of uncertainties into epistemic and aleatoric.
result Generation of maps measuring the range of possible high-resolution explanations.
Non-availability of reliable and sustainable electric power is a major problem in the developing world. Renewable energy sources like solar are not very lucrative in the current stage due to various uncertainties like weather, storage, land use among others. There also exists various other issues like mis-commitment of…
The study predicts solar flare productivity using magnetic data from SDO/HMI.
problem Forecasting solar flares, especially M- and X-class, to mitigate space weather effects.
method Statistical and machine learning methods applied to 563 ARs' magnetic data.
result Improved accuracy in predicting AR's Flare Index, especially for large values.
Electricity production via solar energy is tackled via short-term forecasts and risk management. Our main tool is a new setting on time series. It allows the definition of "confidence bands" where the Gaussian assumption, which is not satisfied by our concrete data, may be abandoned. Those bands are quite convenient an…
Variable renewables can avoid market value decline with policy changes.
problem Market value decline due to correlated generation from wind and solar.
method Theoretical analysis and simulation examples of market incentives and prices.
result Market value decline is due to policy assumptions, not inherent technology limitations.
Deep learning improves solar energy forecasting using physical and data-driven models.
problem Improving short-term solar energy forecasting accuracy.
method Injecting physical knowledge into deep learning models for spatio-temporal forecasting.
result Improved solar energy forecasting models using deep learning and physical criteria.
Photovoltaic systems have been widely deployed in recent times to meet the increased electricity demand as an environmental-friendly energy source. The major challenge for integrating photovoltaic systems in power systems is the unpredictability of the solar power generated. In this paper, we analyze the impact of havi…
One considers a special class of PDEs systems and one determines the associated symmetry group. Particulary, for the Blair system, one finds the symmetry group. A solutions of the Blair system gives a conformally flat contact metric structure and also it defines a "force-free" model of solar physics. By using the symme…
Modeling wildfire aerosols using satellite data to predict solar radiation reduction.
problem Accurately estimate and predict AOD propagation from wildfires using multi-source satellite data.
method Physics-informed statistical modeling integrating multi-source satellite data with an advection-diffusion equation.
result The proposed approach accurately predicts AOD propagation and demonstrates model interpretability.