A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Model predicts increased social unrest during COVID-19 using social media data.
Since the events of the Arab Spring, there has been increased interest in using social media to anticipate social unrest. While efforts have been made toward automated unrest prediction, we focus on filtering the vast volume of tweets to identify tweets relevant to unrest, which can be provided to downstream users for …
The combination of large open data sources with machine learning approaches presents a potentially powerful way to predict events such as protest or social unrest. However, accounting for uncertainty in such models, particularly when using diverse, unstructured datasets such as social media, is essential to guarantee t…
High and volatile global food prices have led to food riots and played a critical role in triggering the Arab Spring revolutions in recent years. The severe drought in the US in the summer of 2012 led to a new increase in food prices. Through the fall, they remained at a threshold above which the riots and revolutions …
We introduce an algorithmic method for population anomaly detection based on gaussianization through an adversarial autoencoder. This method is applicable to detection of `soft' anomalies in arbitrarily distributed highly-dimensional data. A soft, or population, anomaly is characterized by a shift in the distribution o…
ICA model detects misinformation during high impact events like COVID-19.
The problem of predicting the location of users on large social networks like Twitter has emerged from real-life applications such as social unrest detection and online marketing. Twitter user geolocation is a difficult and active research topic with a vast literature. Most of the proposed methods follow either a conte…
Increases in global food prices have led to widespread hunger and social unrest---and an imperative to understand their causes. In a previous paper published in September 2011, we constructed for the first time a dynamic model that quantitatively agreed with food prices. Specifically, the model fit the FAO Food Price I…
Recent droughts in the midwestern United States threaten to cause global catastrophe driven by a speculator amplified food price bubble. Here we show the effect of speculators on food prices using a validated quantitative model that accurately describes historical food prices. During the last six years, high and fluctu…
In this work, we consider hypothesis testing and anomaly detection on datasets where each observation is a weighted network. Examples of such data include brain connectivity networks from fMRI flow data, or word co-occurrence counts for populations of individuals. Current approaches to hypothesis testing for weighted n…
We analyse a period spanning 35 years of activity in the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange Index (IBOVESPA) and show that the Heston model with stochastic volatility is capable of explaining price fluctuations for time scales ranging from 5 minutes to 100 days with a single set of parameters. We also show that the Heston model …
PHASE dataset simulates complex social interactions in physical environments.
Social media enhances or diminishes scientific status, depending on usage.
Social learning can make financial markets inefficient, but individual learning can fix this.
SINN combines social science and deep learning for predicting opinion dynamics.
Optimizes social interactions for profit, people, and planet using mathematical models.
Social recommendation has emerged to leverage social connections among users for predicting users' unknown preferences, which could alleviate the data sparsity issue in collaborative filtering based recommendation. Early approaches relied on utilizing each user's first-order social neighbors' interests for better user …
Enhances traditional MV model for socially responsible investors.
The rise in online social networking has brought about a revolution in social relations. However, its effects on offline interactions and its implications for collective well-being are still not clear and are under-investigated. We study the ecology of online and offline interaction in an evolutionary game framework wh…
Predicting event attendance using social influence from social networks.
Algorithm improves learning by integrating diverse agents' behaviors.
Events are happening in real-world and real-time, which can be planned and organized occasions involving multiple people and objects. Social media platforms publish a lot of text messages containing public events with comprehensive topics. However, mining social events is challenging due to the heterogeneous event elem…
SBO uses dual voting to build consensus in noisy feedback settings.
Online social networks offer a new way to investigate financial markets' dynamics by enabling the large-scale analysis of investors' collective behavior. We provide empirical evidence that suggests social media and stock markets have a nonlinear causal relationship. We take advantage of an extensive data set composed o…
Mobile big data contains vast statistical features in various dimensions, including spatial, temporal, and the underlying social domain. Understanding and exploiting the features of mobile data from a social network perspective will be extremely beneficial to wireless networks, from planning, operation, and maintenance…
We show social events can be accurately predicted, but often undesirably.
Heterogeneous SVO leads to diverse policies in sequential social dilemmas.
Actors in realistic social networks play not one but a number of diverse roles depending on whom they interact with, and a large number of such role-specific interactions collectively determine social communities and their organizations. Methods for analyzing social networks should capture these multi-faceted role-spec…
Agents learn social skills from each other, improving performance.
We demonstrate that future market correlation structure can be predicted with high out-of-sample accuracy using a multiplex network approach that combines information from social media and financial data. Market structure is measured by quantifying the co-movement of asset prices returns, while social structure is meas…
Paper detects social media influencers affecting financial markets.
Nowadays, privacy preserving machine learning has been drawing much attention in both industry and academy. Meanwhile, recommender systems have been extensively adopted by many commercial platforms (e.g. Amazon) and they are mainly built based on user-item interactions. Besides, social platforms (e.g. Facebook) have ri…
Using a method rooted in information theory, we present results that have identified a large set of stocks for which social media can be informative regarding financial volatility. By clustering stocks based on the joint feature sets of social and financial variables, our research provides an important contribution by …
DASC combines social media and car sensors to improve disaster response.
Paper improves gender detection on social media using deep learning.
Social activities play an important role in people's daily life since they interact. For recommendations based on social activities, it is vital to have not only the activity information but also individuals' social relations. Thanks to the geo-social networks and widespread use of location-aware mobile devices, massiv…
Study shows social media impacts shareholder returns on ESG risks.
Social media reduces individual investors' disposition effect through negative information.
AI framework for automated policy-making connects with econometrics and social choice.
Domestic Violence (DV) is considered as big social issue and there exists a strong relationship between DV and health impacts of the public. Existing research studies have focused on social media to track and analyse real world events like emerging trends, natural disasters, user sentiment analysis, political opinions,…
LISBET automates social behavior analysis using machine learning.
EmTract extracts emotions from financial social media text.
Understanding tie strength in social networks, and the factors that influence it, have received much attention in a myriad of disciplines for decades. Several models incorporating indicators of tie strength have been proposed and used to quantify relationships in social networks, and a standard set of structural networ…
This paper studies how social media posts, especially by executives, affect stock prices.
Opioid addiction is a severe public health threat in the U.S, causing massive deaths and many social problems. Accurate relapse prediction is of practical importance for recovering patients since relapse prediction promotes timely relapse preventions that help patients stay clean. In this paper, we introduce a Generati…
Toward enabling next-generation robots capable of socially intelligent interaction with humans, we present a of interactions in a social environment of multiple agents and multiple groups. The Multiagent Group Perception and Interaction (MGpi) network is a deep neural network that predi…
Enhances social spam detection using multi-level dependency of relational sequences.
Precision medicine has received attention both in and outside the clinic. We focus on the latter, by exploiting the relationship between individuals' social interactions and their mental health to develop a predictive model of one's likelihood to be depressed or anxious from rich dynamic social network data. To our kno…