A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Modified Vanna-Volga method constructs Normal volatility smiles.
Study proposes a method to construct copulas using corrected Hermite polynomial expansion for estimating foreign exchange volatility.
Characterizes smiles in delta satisfying specific conditions.
All SMILES VAE learns molecule latent representations from SMILES strings.
Study on implied volatility for multi-factor rough volatility models.
GEN generates millions of valid SMILES with high novelty and property conservation.
Smile-GANs clusters brain MRI scans to reveal disease subtypes and progression.
We study a Markov-Functional (MF) interest-rate model with Uncertain Volatility Displaced Diffusion (UVDD) digital mapping, which is consistent with the volatility-smile phenomenon observed in the option market. We first check the impact of pricing Bermudan swaptions by the model. Next, we also investigate the future s…
Text classification on drug SMILES strings yields competitive drug type classification results.
Extends saddle-point method for large-time volatility smiles.
We propose a new static parameterization of the implied volatility surface which is constructed by using polynomials of sigmoid functions combined with some other terms. This parameterization is flexible enough to fit market implied volatilities which demonstrate smile or skew. An arbitrage-free calibration algorithm i…
Volatility smiles emerge from imperfect hedging in financial markets.
In some options markets (e.g. commodities), options are listed with only a single maturity for each underlying. In others, (e.g. equities, currencies), options are listed with multiple maturities. In this paper, we provide an algorithm for calibrating a pure jump Markov martingale model to match the market prices of Eu…
Extends SABR model for pricing RFR caplets.
The main purpose of this work is to examine the behavior of the implied volatility smiles around jumps, contributing to the literature with a high-frequency analysis of the smile dynamics based on intra-day option data. From our high-frequency SPX S\&P500 index option dataset, we utilize the first three principal compo…
SMILES Transformer learns molecular fingerprints for drug discovery.
Paper uses AI to predict option volatility surfaces with improved accuracy.
We derive a new, exact and transparent expansion for option smiles, which lends itself both to analytical approximation and, perhaps more importantly, to congenial numerical treatments. We show that the skew and the curvature of the smile can be computed as exotic options, for which the Hedged Monte Carlo method is par…
In the Black-Scholes context we consider the probability distribution function (PDF) of financial returns implied by volatility smile and we study the relation between the decay of its tails and the fitting parameters of the smile. We show that, considering a scaling law derived from data, it is possible to get a new f…
A new model shows joint calibration of SPX and VIX smiles is possible.
Improved Heston model produces steeper smile for short maturities.
DCNN improves volatility smile and skewness calibration without arbitrage constraints.
Our derivation of the distribution function for future returns is based on the risk neutral approach which gives a functional dependence for the European call (put) option price, C(K), given the strike price, K, and the distribution function of the returns. We derive this distribution function using for C(K) a Black-Sc…
We develop a new method to price SOFR futures contracts considering convexity, skew, and smile.
The rBergomi model is improved with a regime switching change of measure to match market VIX smiles.
We derive sharp bounds for the prices of VIX futures using the full information of S&P 500 smiles. To that end, we formulate the model-free sub/superreplication of the VIX by trading in the S&P 500 and its vanilla options as well as the forward-starting log-contracts. A dual problem of minimizing/maximizing certain ris…
In this paper we investigate the asymptotics of forward-start options and the forward implied volatility smile in the Heston model as the maturity approaches zero. We prove that the forward smile for out-of-the-money options explodes and compute a closed-form high-order expansion detailing the rate of the explosion. Fu…
CNF model improves molecular prediction accuracy.
The paper analyzes LETF option markets using moneyness scaling to find statistical arbitrage opportunities.
We prove here a general closed-form expansion formula for forward-start options and the forward implied volatility smile in a large class of models, including the Heston stochastic volatility and time-changed exponential Lévy models. This expansion applies to both small and large maturities and is based solely on the p…
We simplify SVI volatility smile constraints for three sub-SVIs without numerical methods.
Paper addresses xVA models for market-implied skew and smile.
We give an explicit formula for the probability distribution based on a relativistic extension of Brownian motion. The distribution 1) is properly normalized and 2) obeys the tower law (semigroup property), so we can construct martingales and self-financing hedging strategies and price claims (options). This model is a…
This study examines how earnings announcements affect option volatility and pricing.
Study examines implied volatility behavior in Bachelier model.
We review and illustrate how the volatility smile translates into a probability distribution, the market-implied probability distribution representing believes priced in. The effects of changes in the smile are examined. Special attention is given to the effects of slope, which might appear at first counter-intuitive. …
We consider the fractional Heston model originally proposed by Comte, Coutin and Renault. Inspired by recent ground-breaking work on rough volatility, which showed that models with volatility driven by fractional Brownian motion with short memory allows for better calibration of the volatility surface and more robust e…
We introduce a new class of local volatility models. Within this framework, we obtain expressions for both (i) the price of any European option and (ii) the induced implied volatility smile. As an illustration of our framework, we perform specific pricing and implied volatility computations for a CEV-like example. Nume…
In this work, we aim to gain a better understanding of the volatility smile observed in options markets through microsimulation (MS). We adopt two types of active traders in our MS model: speculators and arbitrageurs, and call and put options on one underlying asset. Speculators make decisions based on their expectatio…
In the present paper, given an evolving mixture of probability densities, we define a candidate diffusion process whose marginal law follows the same evolution. We derive as a particular case a stochastic differential equation (SDE) admitting a unique strong solution and whose density evolves as a mixture of Gaussian d…
We study in details the skew of stock option smiles, which is induced by the so-called leverage effect on the underlying -- i.e. the correlation between past returns and future square returns. This naturally explains the anomalous dependence of the skew as a function of maturity of the option. The market cap dependence…
Chemical autoencoders are attractive models as they combine chemical space navigation with possibilities for de-novo molecule generation in areas of interest. This enables them to produce focused chemical libraries around a single lead compound for employment early in a drug discovery project. Here it is shown that the…
ChemBoost predicts protein-ligand binding affinity using SMILES syntax.
Deep learning model integrates SMILES and molecular descriptors for EGFR inhibitor prediction.
A new volatility model calibrates SPX & VIX smiles with 6 parameters.
We revisit the ``Smile Dynamics'' problem, which consists in relating the implied leverage (i.e. the correlation of the at-the-money volatility with the returns of the underlying) and the skew of the option smile. The ratio between these two quantities, called ``Skew-Stickiness Ratio'' (SSR) by Bergomi (Smile Dynamics …
SMILE improves explainability of machine learning models.
Improved model for SOFR, SONIA, and ESTR caplets pricing.