A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
New methods for skill rating in sports using state-space models.
MOVDA improves skill ratings by considering margin of victory deviations.
A new method predicts student skill success rates in real-time.
A simplified Bayesian approach for online sports rating.
The paper explains how language models acquire complex skills through scaling laws and statistical analysis.
Elo rating outperforms complex models in skill estimation despite model misspecification.
A study shows that a fine-tuned model's directional accuracy in financial forecasting is largely due to chance, not skill.
Mobile robot navigation in complex and dynamic environments is a challenging but important problem. Reinforcement learning approaches fail to solve these tasks efficiently due to reward sparsities, temporal complexities and high-dimensionality of sensorimotor spaces which are inherent in such problems. We present a nov…
We explore a new way to evaluate generative models using insights from evaluation of competitive games between human players. We show experimentally that tournaments between generators and discriminators provide an effective way to evaluate generative models. We introduce two methods for summarizing tournament outcomes…
Background: Virtual reality simulators and machine learning have the potential to augment understanding, assessment and training of psychomotor performance in neurosurgery residents. Objective: This study outlines the first application of machine learning to distinguish "skilled" and "novice" psychomotor performance du…
Study finds different active learning techniques better for various learning objectives.
ReSkill reconciles RL skill creation with policy optimization.
Human players in professional team sports achieve high level coordination by dynamically choosing complementary skills and executing primitive actions to perform these skills. As a step toward creating intelligent agents with this capability for fully cooperative multi-agent settings, we propose a two-level hierarchica…
Employers actively look for talents having not only specific hard skills but also various soft skills. To analyze the soft skill demands on the job market, it is important to be able to detect soft skill phrases from job advertisements automatically. However, a naive matching of soft skill phrases can lead to false pos…
Elo ratings learn model parameters quickly using Markov chains.
Job recommendation has traditionally been treated as a filter-based match or as a recommendation based on the features of jobs and candidates as discrete entities. In this paper, we introduce a methodology where we leverage the progression of job selection by candidates using machine learning. Additionally, our recomme…
Bayesian nonparametrics enables dynamic skill discovery from expert data.
Paper learns skill distributions from game outcomes, proving minimax optimality.
Manipulation tasks such as preparing a meal or assembling furniture remain highly challenging for robotics and vision. Traditional task and motion planning (TAMP) methods can solve complex tasks but require full state observability and are not adapted to dynamic scene changes. Recent learning methods can operate direct…
We present a novel solution to the problem of simulation-to-real transfer, which builds on recent advances in robot skill decomposition. Rather than focusing on minimizing the simulation-reality gap, we learn a set of diverse policies that are parameterized in a way that makes them easily reusable. This diversity and p…
We introduce the Adaptive Skills, Adaptive Partitions (ASAP) framework that (1) learns skills (i.e., temporally extended actions or options) as well as (2) where to apply them. We believe that both (1) and (2) are necessary for a truly general skill learning framework, which is a key building block needed to scale up t…
Deep reinforcement learning has demonstrated increasing capabilities for continuous control problems, including agents that can move with skill and agility through their environment. An open problem in this setting is that of developing good strategies for integrating or merging policies for multiple skills, where each…
Researchers study how skills are learned in neural networks using physics principles.
The paper examines skill estimation and variance under model misspecification in IRT.
Acquiring new robot motor skills is cumbersome, as learning a skill from scratch and without prior knowledge requires the exploration of a large space of motor configurations. Accordingly, for learning a new task, time could be saved by restricting the parameter search space by initializing it with the solution of a si…
Humans are able to perform a myriad of sophisticated tasks by drawing upon skills acquired through prior experience. For autonomous agents to have this capability, they must be able to extract reusable skills from past experience that can be recombined in new ways for subsequent tasks. Furthermore, when controlling com…
ABC method improves subseasonal weather forecasting by 60-90%.
Simulation-to-real transfer is an important strategy for making reinforcement learning practical with real robots. Successful sim-to-real transfer systems have difficulty producing policies which generalize across tasks, despite training for thousands of hours equivalent real robot time. To address this shortcoming, we…
A planning approach learns skills from interactions, balancing exploration and exploitation.
Spaced repetition is among the most studied learning strategies in the cognitive science literature. It consists in temporally distributing exposure to an information so as to improve long-term memorization. Providing students with an adaptive and personalized distributed practice schedule would benefit more than just …
Integrates skills and world models for efficient task solving and transfer.
New algorithm trains neural nets on simple skills to learn complex tasks faster.
Job transitions and upskilling are common actions taken by many industry working professionals throughout their career. With the current rapidly changing job landscape where requirements are constantly changing and industry sectors are emerging, it is especially difficult to plan and navigate a predetermined career pat…
Traditional methods outperform LLMs in forecasting corporate credit ratings.
Automated prediction of public speaking performance enables novel systems for tutoring public speaking skills. We use the largest open repository---TED Talks---to predict the ratings provided by the online viewers. The dataset contains over 2200 talk transcripts and the associated meta information including over 5.5 mi…
Purpose: Manual feedback from senior surgeons observing less experienced trainees is a laborious task that is very expensive, time-consuming and prone to subjectivity. With the number of surgical procedures increasing annually, there is an unprecedented need to provide an accurate, objective and automatic evaluation of…
Sloth predicts LLM performance using latent skills across families.
Bayesian rating system for large competitions improves prediction and efficiency.
The paper presents a method for personalized exercise recommendations that improves learner skill gain.
We introduce a method for constructing skills capable of solving tasks drawn from a distribution of parameterized reinforcement learning problems. The method draws example tasks from a distribution of interest and uses the corresponding learned policies to estimate the topology of the lower-dimensional piecewise-smooth…
Hierarchical reinforcement learning is a promising approach to tackle long-horizon decision-making problems with sparse rewards. Unfortunately, most methods still decouple the lower-level skill acquisition process and the training of a higher level that controls the skills in a new task. Leaving the skills fixed can le…
For robots to coexist with humans in a social world like ours, it is crucial that they possess human-like social interaction skills. Programming a robot to possess such skills is a challenging task. In this paper, we propose a Multimodal Deep Q-Network (MDQN) to enable a robot to learn human-like interaction skills thr…
New method boosts skill learning by encouraging optimistic exploration.
We consider worker skill estimation for the single-coin Dawid-Skene crowdsourcing model. In practice, skill-estimation is challenging because worker assignments are sparse and irregular due to the arbitrary and uncontrolled availability of workers. We formulate skill estimation as a rank-one correlation-matrix completi…
Conventionally, model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) aims to learn a global model for the dynamics of the environment. A good model can potentially enable planning algorithms to generate a large variety of behaviors and solve diverse tasks. However, learning an accurate model for complex dynamical systems is diffi…
Multiplayer Online Battle Arena (MOBA) games are among the most played digital games in the world. In these games, teams of players fight against each other in arena environments, and the gameplay is focused on tactical combat. Mastering MOBAs requires extensive practice, as is exemplified in the popular MOBA Defence o…
New method automates asymmetric choice for better skill transfer in reinforcement learning.
The composition of elementary behaviors to solve challenging transfer learning problems is one of the key elements in building intelligent machines. To date, there has been plenty of work on learning task-specific policies or skills but almost no focus on composing necessary, task-agnostic skills to find a solution to …