Christmas causes 2-month LIBOR to jump.
problem Understanding the short-term pattern in LIBOR dynamics.
method Analyzed the 21 days before Xmas and the sign and size of the jump.
result 2-month LIBOR jumps after Christmas, influenced by the trend 21 days prior.
The paper finds stocks with higher dynamic network risk have lower returns.
problem Understanding and pricing short-term and long-term dynamic network risk in stock returns.
method Examined the relationship between stock sensitivities to dynamic network risk and expected returns, using economic theory and empirical analysis.
result A one-standard deviation increase in long-term network risk loadings associates with a 7.66% drop in annualized expected returns.
Predicts short-term futures contract direction using neural networks and order flow data.
problem Challenges in predicting short-term directional movement of futures contracts.
method Engineering features from technical analysis, order flow, and order-book data; training a Tabnet neural network.
result Achieved an accuracy of 0.601 in predicting directional change on the Silver Futures Contract.
Develops LSTM for predicting neuronal dynamics over long time-horizons.
problem Understanding and controlling complex brain behaviors.
method Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network architecture for multi-time step predictions.
result LSTM improves short time-horizon prediction accuracy and multi-time step predictions of neuronal dynamics.
In this paper, we introduce a novel method to interpret recurrent neural networks (RNNs), particularly long short-term memory networks (LSTMs) at the cellular level. We propose a systematic pipeline for interpreting individual hidden state dynamics within the network using response characterization methods. The ranked …
New approach models computer network activity as mixtures of sources.
problem Malicious activity detection in computer networks using standard algorithms is ineffective.
method Source separation approach to model short-term dynamics of computer network activity.
result Qualitative and quantitative experiments validate the approach.
This work learns effective dynamics from short-term data of stochastic systems.
problem Learning effective dynamics from short-term data of stochastic systems.
method Proposes a novel algorithm using a neural network (Auto-SDE) to learn invariant slow manifold from data.
result Validated through numerical experiments to be accurate, stable, and effective.
Investment strategies differ based on short-term and long-term market time scales.
problem Identifying and understanding different time scales in stock market dynamics.
method Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) and Hurst Exponent analysis.
result Short-term market dynamics are random, while long-term are correlated with company fundamentals.
TimeMixer predicts global financial asset volatility, excelling in short-term forecasts.
problem Predicting volatility in global financial markets is challenging due to complexity and non-linear dynamics.
method Uses TimeMixer, a multiscale-mixing model for forecasting across different scales.
result TimeMixer performs exceptionally well in short-term volatility forecasting but less so in longer-term predictions.
Proposes LSR-IGRU for improved stock trend prediction.
problem Challenges in stock price prediction due to complex relationships and nonlinear dynamics.
method Long short-term relationships matrix and improved GRU input for better temporal and relationship integration.
result Significantly improved accuracy in predicting stock trend changes.
Statistical models outperform mechanistic models in short-term COVID-19 incidence forecasts.
problem Comparing accuracy of mechanistic vs statistical models for short-term COVID-19 incidence forecasts.
method Empirical comparison of forecasts from mechanistic and statistical models using daily incidence data from six US states.
result Statistical models are at least as accurate as mechanistic models and better capture volatility.
Proposes using Dynamic Mode Decomposition with delays for short-term human motion anticipation.
problem Lack of interpretability and explainability in neural network-based motion anticipation methods.
method Dynamic Mode Decomposition with delays for motion representation and prediction.
result Anticipation errors comparable or better than recurrent neural networks for very short times.
Many different classification tasks need to manage structured data, which are usually modeled as graphs. Moreover, these graphs can be dynamic, meaning that the vertices/edges of each graph may change during time. Our goal is to jointly exploit structured data and temporal information through the use of a neural networ…
We propose a unified structural credit risk model incorporating both insolvency and illiquidity risks, in order to investigate how a firm's default probability depends on the liquidity risk associated with its financing structure. We assume the firm finances its risky assets by mainly issuing short- and long-term debt.…
With the proliferation of algorithmic high-frequency trading in financial markets, the Limit Order Book has generated increased research interest. Research is still at an early stage and there is much we do not understand about the dynamics of Limit Order Books. In this paper, we employ a machine learning approach to i…
Model captures complex neural dynamics with Gaussian process and RNN.
problem Challenges in extracting latent dynamics from noisy neural data.
method Gaussian process recurrent neural networks (GP-RNN) for nonlinear, non-Markovian dynamics.
result Outperforms state-of-the-art methods in reconstructing latent dynamics.
Study examines short-term IVS dynamics using a model-independent approach.
problem Understanding the short-term behavior of implied volatility surface (IVS).
method Model-independent, distribution-based approach imposing cumulant conditions on asset log return distribution.
result Derives a quadratic expansion for implied volatility and asymptotic expressions for ATM skew and curvature.
Paper proposes deep learning model for dynamic stock repurchase forecasting.
problem Complex temporal dependencies in corporate financial conditions.
method Hybrid Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN) and Attention-based LSTM.
result Model significantly outperforms static baselines in stock repurchase forecasting.
DCRNN improves LSTM for chaotic dynamical system forecasting.
problem Modeling chaotic dynamical systems with recurrent neural networks.
method DCRNN incorporates learnable skip-connections and a Lyapunov stability regularization term.
result DCRNN outperforms LSTM in 100 out of 100 experiments, reducing mean squared error by 80.0%.
Framework optimizes battery storage for markets by separating long-term degradation from short-term market dynamics.
problem Intractable computation due to timescale mismatch between battery degradation and market dynamics.
method Approximate dynamic programming with value function approximation and pseudo-time encoding.
result Policy outperforms benchmarks in real-time market scenarios.
This paper examines the volatility and covariance dynamics of cash and futures contracts that underlie the Optimal Hedge Ratio (OHR) across different hedging time horizons. We examine whether hedge ratios calculated over a short term hedging horizon can be scaled and successfully applied to longer term horizons. We als…
A new model disentangles long-term and short-term sentiment components in stock returns.
problem Identifying distinct components of sentiment data in stock markets.
method Dynamic factor model with random walk and stationary VAR(1) components, estimated via Kalman filtering and EM.
result The long-term sentiment component co-integrates with market principal factor, while the short-term captures market swings.
Study finds short-term trading signals can enhance alpha in U.S. S&P 500 portfolios.
problem Traditional factor investing misses real-time market dislocations.
method Double-selection LASSO framework to control for fundamental factors and isolate trading signals.
result 17 distinct trading signals capture significant risk premiums and enhance portfolio diversification.
We present a continuous-time maximum likelihood estimation methodology for credit rating transition probabilities, taking into account the presence of censored data. We perform rolling estimates of the transition matrices with exponential time weighting with varying horizons and discuss the underlying dynamics of trans…
We introduce a model for the short-term dynamics of financial assets based on an application to finance of quantum gauge theory, developing ideas of Ilinski. We present a numerical algorithm for the computation of the probability distribution of prices and compare the results with APPLE stocks prices and the S&P500 ind…
Paper uses deep reinforcement learning for network slicing and traffic prediction.
problem Managing dynamic network slices while maintaining QoS in a 5G environment.
method Integrates LSTM for traffic prediction and DDRL for distributed decision-making.
result Significant improvements in network performance, reducing QoS violations.
This paper uses Bayesian models to analyze CTA returns across short and long-term trends.
problem The relative merits and interactions of short- and long-term trend systems in CTA replication remain controversial.
method Dynamic decomposition of CTA returns into short-term trend, long-term trend, and market beta factors using a Bayesian graphical model.
result The blend of horizons shapes the strategy's risk-adjusted performance.
This paper presents a model based on multilayer feedforward neural network to forecast crude oil spot price direction in the short-term, up to three days ahead. A great deal of attention was paid on finding the optimal ANN model structure. In addition, several methods of data pre-processing were tested. Our approach is…
Improves A/B testing for long-term outcomes in dynamic systems.
problem Estimating long-term effects from short-term A/B testing data.
method Develops optimal inference techniques and localized information sharing methods.
result New estimator reduces variance linearly with test arms and matches lower bounds.
Dynamic linear models improve travel time prediction for congested freeways.
problem Accurate travel time prediction for congested freeways.
method Dynamic linear models (DLMs) with time-varying parameters.
result Significant improvements in travel time prediction accuracy, especially for short-term predictions.
Understanding temporal dynamics has proved to be highly valuable for accurate recommendation. Sequential recommenders have been successful in modeling the dynamics of users and items over time. However, while different model architectures excel at capturing various temporal ranges or dynamics, distinct application cont…
MRIF models dynamic user interests at multiple temporal-ranges.
problem Capturing dynamic and multi-resolution user interests in recommendation.
method Multi-resolution Interest Fusion (MRIF) model that considers both temporal-ranges and drifts in user interests.
result MRIF outperforms state-of-the-art recommendation methods consistently.
Frequency-based reservoir improves prediction accuracy and optimizes short-term forecasts.
problem Lack of precise explanation and optimization methods for reservoir computing.
method Inspired by brain's oscillatory dynamics, frequency-based reservoir uses an ensemble of independent oscillatory units.
result Frequency-based reservoir performs as well as or better than random reservoirs and can predict complex spatiotemporal dynamics.
Estimates long-term effects of new treatments using historical and short-term data.
problem Estimating long-term effects of novel treatments with limited historical data.
method Surrogate indices, dynamic treatment effect estimation, and double machine learning combined in a unified pipeline.
result Consistent and asymptotically normal estimates of long-term effects under Markovian assumption.
UrbanRhythm reveals urban dynamics from mobility data.
problem Understanding changing urban activities over time.
method Extracting staying, leaving, arriving attributes; using Saak transform; clustering for city states; motif analysis for short-term regularity.
result Characterized urban dynamics as city state transformations over time.
The identification of the governing equations of chaotic dynamical systems from data has recently emerged as a hot topic. While the seminal work by Brunton et al. reported proof-of-concepts for idealized observation setting for fully-observed systems, {\em i.e.} large signal-to-noise ratios and high-frequency sampling …
Much sequential data exhibits highly non-uniform information distribution. This cannot be correctly modeled by traditional Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM). To address that, recent works have extended LSTM by adding more activations between adjacent inputs. However, the approaches often use a fixed depth, which is at the …
Paper compares machine learning methods for predicting target motion.
problem Challenges in accurately modeling target dynamics due to mismatch between assumed and true motion.
method Three machine learning methods (GPs, IMM, LSTM) compared against EKF.
result LSTM network outperforms other methods in real-world scenarios.
The extension of deep learning towards temporal data processing is gaining an increasing research interest. In this paper we investigate the properties of state dynamics developed in successive levels of deep recurrent neural networks (RNNs) in terms of short-term memory abilities. Our results reveal interesting insigh…
Investigates geometric mean reversion process using Lie symmetry method.
problem Describes dynamics of short-term interest rates.
method Lie symmetry method and optimal system of invariant solutions.
result Constructs an optimal system of invariant solutions.
Paper compares GRU and LSTM for predicting wildfire spread direction.
problem Predicting wildfire spread direction with limited data.
method Comparison of Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks.
result GRU performs better for longer time series than LSTM.
With the growing prevalence of smart grid technology, short-term load forecasting (STLF) becomes particularly important in power system operations. There is a large collection of methods developed for STLF, but selecting a suitable method under varying conditions is still challenging. This paper develops a novel reinfo…
Hybrid model improves traffic flow prediction accuracy.
problem Predicting traffic flow with high accuracy in short-term future.
method A hybrid model combining hidden Markov model and LSTM.
result Significant performance gains over conventional methods.
Study uses machine learning to predict nonlinear seismic brace behavior.
problem Predicting nonlinear seismic response of structural braces.
method State-of-the-art machine learning techniques, specifically LSTM, were used.
result LSTM method effectively captures nonlinear brace behavior.
Two simulation-based methods improve optimal sampling design in systems biology.
problem Optimal selection of sampling points for accurate parameter estimation in dynamical systems.
method E-optimal-ranking (EOR) and LSTM neural network-based methods.
result Simulation studies show the proposed methods outperform random selection and classical E-optimal design.
Paper proposes a dual-level approach for multi-step forecasting of dynamical systems.
problem Accurate multi-step forecasting of time series systems for automatic control and optimization.
method Hybrid input forecasting using LSTM-STMs and physics-informed neural networks (PINNs).
result Hybrid models achieve higher log-likelihood and lower MSE compared to conventional methods.
A unified analytical pricing framework with involvement of the shot noise random process has been introduced and elaborated. Two exactly solvable new models have been developed. The first model has been designed to value options. It is assumed that asset price stochastic dynamics follows a Geometric Shot Noise motion. …
We present a model that investigates the spontaneous emergence of randomness in equity market microstructure. The phase space analysis of our model exposes an endogenous source of fluctuation in price and volume. We formulate a control problem for maximizing price regularity and stability while minimizing entanglement …