A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
SHHK Stock Connect increases A-H share price premium, more for less efficient markets.
Anti-ELAB protests affected Hong Kong firms' stock prices, especially those linked to pan-democrats.
We utilize a fundamentally different model of trading costs to look at the effect of the opening of the Hong Kong Shanghai Connect that links the stock exchanges in the two cities, arguably the biggest event in international business and finance since Christopher Columbus set sail for India. We design a novel methodolo…
Based on the minute-by-minute data of the Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong and the analysis of probability distribution and autocorrelations, we find that the index fluctuations for the first few minutes of daily opening show behaviors very different from those of the other times. In particular, the properties of tail dist…
In Part III of this study, we apply the price dynamical model with big buyers and big sellers developed in Part I of this paper to the daily closing prices of the top 20 banking and real estate stocks listed in the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. The basic idea is to estimate the strength parameters of the big buyers and the…
Study uses Kalman-Filter to assess market efficiency in major stock markets.
The Stochastic Volatility (SV) model and its variants are widely used in the financial sector while recurrent neural network (RNN) models are successfully used in many large-scale industrial applications of Deep Learning. Our article combines these two methods in a non-trivial way and proposes a model, which we call th…
We argue that the word ``critical'' in the title is not purely literary. Based on our and other previous work on nonlinear complex dynamical systems, we summarize present evidence, on the Oct. 1929, Oct. 1987, Oct. 1987 Hong-Kong, Aug. 1998 global market events and on the 1985 Forex event, for the hypothesis advanced f…
Weibo experts predict stock market better than non-experts.
Quantum-enhanced method improves stock return prediction accuracy.
A deep convolutional fuzzy system (DCFS) on a high-dimensional input space is a multi-layer connection of many low-dimensional fuzzy systems, where the input variables to the low-dimensional fuzzy systems are selected through a moving window across the input spaces of the layers. To design the DCFS based on input-outpu…
China Vanke Co. faced a hostile takeover by Baoneng Group, sparking controversy.
Between 2003 and 2015 the prices of apartments in Hong Kong (adjusted for inflation) increased by a factor of 3.8. This is much higher than in the United States prior to the so-called subprime crisis of 2007. The analysis of this speculative episode confirms the mechanism and regularities already highlighted by the pre…
Reference class forecasting is a method to remove optimism bias and strategic misrepresentation in infrastructure projects and programmes. In 2012 the Hong Kong government's Development Bureau commissioned a feasibility study on reference class forecasting in Hong Kong - a first for the Asia-Pacific region. This study …
We propose a mathematical model for the word-of-mouth communications among stock investors through social networks and explore how the changes of the investors' social networks influence the stock price dynamics and vice versa. An investor is modeled as a Gaussian fuzzy set (a fuzzy opinion) with the center and standar…
Traditional sentiment construction in finance relies heavily on the dictionary-based approach, with a few exceptions using simple machine learning techniques such as Naive Bayes classifier. While the current literature has not yet invoked the rapid advancement in the natural language processing, we construct in this re…
HSBC grew from Hong Kong to global dominance despite political upheavals.
Keeping a basic tenet of economic theory, rational expectations, we model the nonlinear positive feedback between agents in the stock market as an interplay between nonlinearity and multiplicative noise. The derived hyperbolic stochastic finite-time singularity formula transforms a Gaussian white noise into a rich time…
In complex financial systems, the sector structure and volatility clustering are respectively important features of the spatial and temporal correlations. However, the microscopic generation mechanism of the sector structure is not yet understood. Especially, how to produce these two features in one model remains chall…
We analyze the multifractal spectra of daily foreign exchange rates for Japan, Hong-Kong, Korea, and Thailand with respect to the United States Dollar from 1991 to 2005. We find that the return time series show multifractal spectrum features for all four cases. To observe the effect of the Asian currency crisis, we als…
We propose a new heavy-tailed distribution --- Gaussian-Chain (GC) distribution, which is inspirited by the hierarchical structures prevailing in social organizations. We determine the mean, variance and kurtosis of the Gaussian-Chain distribution to show its heavy-tailed property, and compute the tail distribution tab…
We consider the hyperbolic geometric flow introduced by Kong and Liu [KL]. When the Riemannian metric evolve, then so does its curvature. Using the techniques and ideas of S.Brendle [Br,BS], we derive evolution equations for the Levi-Civita connection and the curvature…
In this paper we investigate the endogenous information contained in four liquidity variables at a five minutes time scale on equity markets around the world: the traded volume, the bid-ask spread, the volatility and the volume at first limits of the orderbook. In the spirit of Granger causality, we measure the level o…
These are lecture notes mainly aimed at graduate students on selected aspects of generalized geometry: in particular generalized complex and Kaehler structures and generalized holomorphic bundles. They are based on lectures given in March 2010 at the Chinese University of Hong Kong.
Development of stock networks is an important approach to explore the relationship between different stocks in the era of big-data. Although a number of methods have been designed to construct the stock correlation networks, it is still a challenge to balance the selection of prominent correlations and connectivity of …
New method improves tensor completion for weakly-dependent spatiotemporal data.
We give an answer to the question given by T.Y.Kong in his article "Can 3-D Digital Topology be Based on Axiomatically Defined Digital Spaces?" In this article he asks the question, if so called "good pairs" of neighborhood relations can be found on the set Z^n such that the existence of digital manifolds of dimension …
The crowd panic and its contagion play non-negligible roles at the time of the stock crash, especially for China where inexperienced investors dominate the market. However, existing models rarely consider investors in networking stocks and accordingly miss the exact knowledge of how panic contagion leads to abrupt cras…
We generalize the ancient solutions of the Ricci flow on certain principal bundles over compact quaternionic Kähler manifolds constructed by Bakas, Kong, and Ni to certain fibre bundles over a product of two compact quaternionic Kähler manifolds. The ancient solutions are of Type I, -noncollapse…
In this study, we have investigated factors of determination which can affect the connected structure of a stock network. The representative index for topological properties of a stock network is the number of links with other stocks. We used the multi-factor model, extensively acknowledged in financial literature. In …
Since 2002 when China first introduced QFII (Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors) system, QFII has been developing in China for 14 years, during when RQFII, Shanghai-Hongkong Stock Connect Program, Shanghai-London Stock Connect Program furthur broadened the avenue for foreign capital to invest in Chinese Security…
We propose a methodological framework to study the dynamics of inter-regional investment flow in Europe from a Complex Networks perspective, an approach with recent proven success in many fields including economics. In this work we study the network of investment stocks in Europe at two different levels: first, we comp…
Deep learning predicts stock movements using social media data.
In this paper, the author has considered the hyperbolic Kahler-Ricci flow introduced by Kong and Liu [11], that is, the hyperbolic version of the famous Kahler-Ricci flow. The author has explained the derivation of the equation and calculated the evolutions of various quantities associated to the equation including the…
Although the understanding of and motivation behind individual trading behavior is an important puzzle in finance, little is known about the connection between an investor's portfolio structure and her trading behavior in practice. In this paper, we investigate the relation between what stocks investors hold, and what …
Stock market indices are one of the most investigated complex systems in econophysics. Here we extend the existing literature on stock markets in connection with nonextensive statistical mechanics. We explore the nonextensivity of price volatilities for 34 major stock market indices between 2010 and 2019. We discover t…
We propose a group model for correlations in stock markets. In the group model the markets are composed of several groups, within which the stock price fluctuations are correlated. The spectral properties of empirical correlation matrices reported in [Phys. Rev. Lett. {\bf 83}, 1467 (1999); Phys. Rev. Lett. {\bf 83}, 1…
It seems to be very unlikely that all relevant information in the stock market could be fully encoded in a geometrical shape. Still,the present paper will reveal the geometry behind the stock market transactions. The prices of market index (DJIA) stock components are arranged in ascending order from the smallest one in…
I find a topological arrangement of stocks traded in a financial market which has associated a meaningful economic taxonomy. The topological space is a graph connecting the stocks of the portfolio analyzed. The graph is obtained starting from the matrix of correlation coefficient computed between all pairs of stocks of…
This paper analyzes how kinetic terms in stock market equations can affect symmetry breaking.
A new framework forecasts stock trends by mining shared information from concepts.
Paper proposes a deep learning model to predict stock prices using sentiment analysis.
A surprising image of the stock market arises if the price time series of all Dow Jones Industrial Average stock components are represented in one chart at once. The chart evolves into a braid representation of the stock market by taking into account only the crossing of stocks and fixing a convention defining overcros…
Study reveals how illiquidity network signals Chinese stock market crashes.
We generalize the recently proposed quantum model for the stock market by Zhang and Huang to make it consistent with the discrete nature of the stock price. In this formalism, the price of the stock and its trend satisfy the generalized uncertainty relation and the corresponding generalized Hamiltonian contains an addi…
This work employs some techniques in order to filter random noise from the information provided by minimum spanning trees obtained from the correlation matrices of international stock market indices prior to and during times of crisis. The first technique establishes a threshold above which connections are considered a…
Manipulation is an important issue for both developed and emerging stock markets. For the study of manipulation, it is critical to analyze investor behavior in the stock market. In this paper, an analysis of the full transaction records of over a hundred stocks in a one-year period is conducted. For each stock, a tradi…
Improved contact tracing models outperform NIST challenge results.