A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
A new method for predicting insurance claims with statistical guarantees.
Models use embeddings and attention for better claim severity prediction.
EBM improves car insurance claim severity and frequency prediction while maintaining interpretability.
New method uses weak labels to create valid confidence sets for predictions.
We demonstrate that there is significant redundancy in the parameterization of several deep learning models. Given only a few weight values for each feature it is possible to accurately predict the remaining values. Moreover, we show that not only can the parameter values be predicted, but many of them need not be lear…
Study uses ML to forecast ionospheric scintillation severity.
With continuous glucose monitoring (CGM), data-driven models on blood glucose prediction have been shown to be effective in related work. However, such (CGM) systems are not always available, e.g., for a patient at home. In this work, we conduct a study on 9 patients and examine the online predictability of data-driven…
Graph conformal prediction predicts future power outages with high confidence.
The validity of the Efficient Market Hypothesis has been under severe scrutiny since several decades. However, the evidence against it is not conclusive. Artificial Neural Networks provide a model-free means to analize the prediction power of past returns on current returns. This chapter analizes the predictability in …
Deep learning model predicts severe COVID-19 outcomes.
Proposes a new model to predict polymer properties by integrating various data types.
Collaborative filtering (CF) aims to predict users' ratings on items according to historical user-item preference data. In many real-world applications, preference data are usually sparse, which would make models overfit and fail to give accurate predictions. Recently, several research works show that by transferring k…
FavMac maximizes value while controlling cost in multi-label prediction.
Framework predicts clinical severity from rs-fMRI data using network optimization.
Framework for joint learning of tasks on dementia data with missing values.
Unified model combines neural networks and dictionary learning for clinical predictions from brain data.
Paper introduces a benchmark for predicting bankruptcy from text data.
BBCI uses meta prediction to estimate causal effects from datasets.
Study develops models to predict severe COVID-19 progression.
Conformal prediction fails under severe feature turnover in COVID-19 supply chain tasks.
Most existing examples of full conformal predictive systems, split-conformal predictive systems, and cross-conformal predictive systems impose severe restrictions on the adaptation of predictive distributions to the test object at hand. In this paper we develop split-conformal and cross-conformal predictive systems tha…
In this paper we consider the problem of Gaussian process classifier (GPC) model selection with different Leave-One-Out (LOO) Cross Validation (CV) based optimization criteria and provide a practical algorithm using LOO predictive distributions with such criteria to select hyperparameters. Apart from the standard avera…
This paper presents regression models obtained from a process of blind prediction of peptide binding affinity from provided descriptors for several distinct datasets as part of the 2006 Comparative Evaluation of Prediction Algorithms (COEPRA) contest. This paper finds that kernel partial least squares, a nonlinear part…
New method predicts aphasia severity with narrower uncertainty intervals.
Over the past decade, several approaches have been introduced for short-term traffic prediction. However, providing fine-grained traffic prediction for large-scale transportation networks where numerous detectors are geographically deployed to collect traffic data is still an open issue. To address this issue, in this …
Prediction problems often admit competing models that perform almost equally well. This effect challenges key assumptions in machine learning when competing models assign conflicting predictions. In this paper, we define predictive multiplicity as the ability of a prediction problem to admit competing models with confl…
Heterogeneous ensembles built from the predictions of a wide variety and large number of diverse base predictors represent a potent approach to building predictive models for problems where the ideal base/individual predictor may not be obvious. Ensemble selection is an especially promising approach here, not only for …
Model predicts viscosity of multicomponent systems efficiently.
Link prediction (LP) algorithms propose to each node a ranked list of nodes that are currently non-neighbors, as the most likely candidates for future linkage. Owing to increasing concerns about privacy, users (nodes) may prefer to keep some of their connections protected or private. Motivated by this observation, our …
Paper uses conformal prediction for solar power forecasting in electricity markets.
The statistically equivalent signature (SES) algorithm is a method for feature selection inspired by the principles of constrained-based learning of Bayesian Networks. Most of the currently available feature-selection methods return only a single subset of features, supposedly the one with the highest predictive power.…
New tree splitting criteria improve probabilistic predictions.
We study multiple rule-based and machine learning (ML) models for sepsis detection. We report the first neural network detection and prediction results on three categories of sepsis. We have used the retrospective Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC)-III dataset, restricted to intensive care unit (ICU) p…
An important feature of successful supervised machine learning applications is to be able to explain the predictions given by the regression or classification model being used. However, most state-of-the-art models that have good predictive power lead to predictions that are hard to interpret. Thus, several model-agnos…
Supervised topic models are often sought to balance prediction quality and interpretability. However, when models are (inevitably) misspecified, standard approaches rarely deliver on both. We introduce a novel approach, the prediction-focused topic model, that uses the supervisory signal to retain only vocabulary terms…
In data stream mining, predictive models typically suffer drops in predictive performance due to concept drift. As enough data representing the new concept must be collected for the new concept to be well learnt, the predictive performance of existing models usually takes some time to recover from concept drift. To spe…
A stability-based method selects the most desirable conformal prediction set.
COMA combines prediction sets from multiple models for online, adaptive prediction.
The paper emphasizes the importance of joint predictions over marginal predictions for decision-making.
Explaining complex or seemingly simple machine learning models is an important practical problem. We want to explain individual predictions from a complex machine learning model by learning simple, interpretable explanations. Shapley values is a game theoretic concept that can be used for this purpose. The Shapley valu…
Unified comparison of gradient boosting algorithms for insurance claims.
Each year, roughly 30% of first-year students at US baccalaureate institutions do not return for their second year and over $9 billion is spent educating these students. Yet, little quantitative research has analyzed the causes and possible remedies for student attrition. Here, we describe initial efforts to model stud…
We consider the problem of sequential prediction and provide tools to study the minimax value of the associated game. Classical statistical learning theory provides several useful complexity measures to study learning with i.i.d. data. Our proposed sequential complexities can be seen as extensions of these measures to …
This paper significantly improves on, and finishes to validate, an approach proposed in previous research in which safety outcomes were predicted from attributes with machine learning. Like in the original study, we use Natural Language Processing (NLP) to extract fundamental attributes from raw incident reports and ma…
This paper applies conformal prediction techniques to compute simultaneous prediction bands and clustering trees for functional data. These tools can be used to detect outliers and clusters. Both our prediction bands and clustering trees provide prediction sets for the underlying stochastic process with a guaranteed fi…
Conformal Prediction is a machine learning methodology that produces valid prediction regions under mild conditions. In this paper, we explore the application of making predictions over multiple data sources of different sizes without disclosing data between the sources. We propose that each data source applies a trans…
Study compares resampling methods for rare event prediction in longitudinal studies.
Bluetooth data predicts depression severity, showing 18.8% extra variance.