A new method for Bayesian inference using diffusion models.
problem Bayesian inference in simulator-based models.
method Score-based diffusion models trained with a sequential training procedure.
result Comparable or superior performance compared to existing methods.
Improved likelihood-free inference using preconditioned neural posterior estimation.
problem Inaccurate posterior estimation in likelihood-free inference methods.
method Preconditioned Neural Posterior Estimation (PNPE) and Sequential PNPE (PSNPE) methods.
result PNPE and PSNPE improve posterior estimation accuracy over NPE and SNPE.
Simulation-based inference methods can produce unreliable posterior approximations.
problem Reliability of simulation-based inference methods for scientific use cases.
method Benchmarked algorithms including Neural Posterior Estimation, Neural Ratio Estimation, Sequential Neural Likelihood, and Approximate Bayesian Computation.
result Ensembling posterior surrogates provides more reliable approximations.
Paper proposes nested MLMC for SNPE with intractable likelihoods.
problem Estimating posterior distributions from intractable likelihoods.
method Nested MLMC for loss function and gradients, with convergence results.
result Effective methods for approximating complex multimodal posteriors.
A new method improves SNPE for intractable likelihood models.
problem Simulation-based models with intractable likelihoods.
method Adaptive calibration kernel and variance reduction techniques.
result The proposed method provides a better approximation of the posterior.
TSNPE improves SBI efficiency and scalability.
problem Efficient and scalable simulation-based inference for complex models.
method Sequential inference with truncated proposals.
result TSNPE performs on par with previous methods and scales to complex models.
New algorithms for fast online decision making using neural networks and martingale posteriors.
problem Online sequential decision making under uncertainty.
method Martingale posterior neural networks for fast online learning and decision making.
result Achieves competitive performance-speed trade-offs in non-stationary contextual bandits and Bayesian optimization.
How can one perform Bayesian inference on stochastic simulators with intractable likelihoods? A recent approach is to learn the posterior from adaptively proposed simulations using neural network-based conditional density estimators. However, existing methods are limited to a narrow range of proposal distributions or r…
LSBI approximates likelihood with linear functions for cosmological parameter estimation.
problem Estimating cosmological parameters from complex data.
method Sequential Linear Simulation-based Inference (LSBI) using Gaussian approximations.
result LSBI achieves convergence after 4-5 rounds of simulations, comparable to neural methods.
Pseudo-Likelihood Inference improves ABC for high-dimensional Bayesian inference.
problem Intractable likelihood in Bayesian system identification.
method PLI combines neural approximation with integral probability metrics and adaptive bandwidth.
result PLI outperforms SNPE on challenging tasks, especially with more data.
Improved inference efficiency for complex simulations.
problem Challenges in performing inference under resource-intensive stochastic simulators.
method Active sequential neural posterior estimation (ASNPE) integrating active learning into posterior estimation.
result Improved sample efficiency with low computational overhead.
Most of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithms in existing probabilistic programming systems suboptimally use only model priors as proposal distributions. In this work, we describe an approach for training a discriminative model, namely a neural network, in order to approximate the …
SNPLA uses normalizing flows for efficient inference in implicit models.
problem Efficient inference in implicit models with complex likelihood and posterior learning.
method Sequential Neural Posterior and Likelihood Approximation (SNPLA) algorithm using normalizing flows.
result SNPLA achieves competitive performance with faster posterior draws compared to MCMC methods.
Improves likelihood-free inference by using a new sampling approach to avoid biased data collection.
problem Efficient Bayesian inference without likelihood evaluation for real-world datasets.
method Introduces Neural Proposal (NP) to sample simulation inputs i.i.d. for unbiased posterior inference.
result Demonstrates improved performance, especially for multi-modal posteriors, through experiments.
NAS-X improves inference and model learning for SLVMs.
problem Challenges in analytic inference and model learning for flexible SLVMs.
method NAS-X combines reweighted wake-sleep and smoothing sequential Monte Carlo.
result NAS-X provides low-bias and low-variance gradient estimates.
SFSVI uses Gaussian mixtures to approximate neural network outputs for continual learning.
problem Learning new tasks without forgetting old ones in neural networks.
method Sequential function-space variational inference with Gaussian mixture approximation.
result Gaussian mixture SFSVI outperforms other methods in continual learning.
Bayesian neural networks with dependent weights converge to Gaussian mixtures.
problem Limitations of standard Gaussian priors in neural networks.
method Posterior analysis with Gaussian likelihood for networks with dependent weights.
result Posterior distribution identified in the wide-width limit, ensuring invertibility of random covariance matrix.
New method improves ABI for sequential data, reducing forgetting and improving accuracy.
problem Performance degradation of ABI under model misspecification and distribution shifts.
method Decouples simulation-based pre-training from unsupervised SC fine-tuning, using memory buffer and elastic weight consolidation.
result Significant mitigation of forgetting and improved posterior estimates compared to standard simulation-based training.
Proposes EVE for efficient exploration in reinforcement learning.
problem Efficient exploration in reinforcement learning.
method EVE: a recipe for posterior over parameters, facilitating efficient exploration.
result Competitive performance on benchmarks, efficient exploration confirmed.
New method improves simulation-based inference by avoiding model misspecification.
problem Inefficient parameter estimation for models with intractable likelihoods.
method Proposes a robust SNL method with additional adjustment parameters.
result Demonstrates more accurate point estimates and uncertainty quantification.
VAR-GPs solve continual learning by updating posteriors sequentially.
problem Catastrophic forgetting in sequential learning tasks.
method Sparse inducing point approximations and auto-regressive variational distribution.
result VAR-GPs prevent catastrophic forgetting and outperform baselines.
New method uses low-fidelity simulations to efficiently infer parameters of high-fidelity models.
problem Challenges in inferring parameters of computationally expensive high-fidelity models.
method Multifidelity simulation-based inference using transfer learning and adaptive selection of high-fidelity parameters.
result Significant reduction in the number of high-fidelity simulations required for inference.
SNVI combines likelihood estimation with variational inference for efficient Bayesian inference.
problem Bayesian inference in models with intractable likelihoods.
method Sequential Neural Variational Inference (SNVI) that combines likelihood-estimation with variational inference.
result SNVI is more computationally efficient than previous algorithms without sacrificing accuracy.
Likelihood-free inference refers to inference when a likelihood function cannot be explicitly evaluated, which is often the case for models based on simulators. Most of the literature is based on sample-based `Approximate Bayesian Computation' methods, but recent work suggests that approaches based on deep neural condi…
Federated learning framework with uncertainty estimation.
problem Uncertainty estimation in federated learning models.
method Infers and distills posterior predictive distributions from clients to server.
result Improved accuracy and reliability in predictions and tasks like OOD detection.
We present Sequential Neural Likelihood (SNL), a new method for Bayesian inference in simulator models, where the likelihood is intractable but simulating data from the model is possible. SNL trains an autoregressive flow on simulated data in order to learn a model of the likelihood in the region of high posterior dens…
Postprocessing reduces Bayesian optimization steps for global optima.
problem Slow convergence in Bayesian optimization for high-dimensional problems.
method Prohibits duplicated samples in the dataset postprocessing method.
result Significantly reduces the number of sequential steps to find the global optimum.
Recent advances in deep reinforcement learning have made significant strides in performance on applications such as Go and Atari games. However, developing practical methods to balance exploration and exploitation in complex domains remains largely unsolved. Thompson Sampling and its extension to reinforcement learning…
New method improves sample-efficiency in neural posterior estimation using simulator gradients.
problem High-fidelity posterior estimation with complex physical simulations is time-consuming.
method Neural Posterior Estimation (NPE) with differentiable simulators and gradient information.
result Improves sample-efficiency in posterior density estimation.
PASOA optimizes Bayesian design by improving SMC samplers and EIG.
problem Sequential design optimization for accurate parameter inference.
method Sequential optimization using contrastive estimation, SMC samplers, and tempering.
result PASOA optimizes design and inference with improved consistency.
Bayesian RL tackles uncertainty with deep generative models and sequential samplers.
problem Optimal decision-making in uncertain environments with limited data.
method Bayesian approach using deep generative models and prequential scoring rule for posterior inference. Policy learning via expected Thompson sampling.
result Improves policy learning in high-dimensional parameter spaces and continuous action spaces.
Warm-start strategies speed up GP inference by 19x.
problem Efficient sequential inference in Gaussian processes.
method Three warm-start strategies exploiting smaller linear systems.
result Warm-starting achieves up to 19x speed-up in convergence.
A key limitation of sampling algorithms for approximate inference is that it is difficult to quantify their approximation error. Widely used sampling schemes, such as sequential importance sampling with resampling and Metropolis-Hastings, produce output samples drawn from a distribution that may be far from the target …
We consider the problem of sequential learning from categorical observations bounded in [0,1]. We establish an ordering between the Dirichlet posterior over categorical outcomes and a Gaussian posterior under observations with N(0,1) noise. We establish that, conditioned upon identical data with at least two observatio…
BI-EqNO improves Bayesian inference with flexible neural operators.
problem Inaccurate estimation of marginal likelihoods in approximate Bayesian methods.
method Equivariant neural operator framework for generalized approximate Bayesian inference.
result BI-EqNO enhances both deterministic and stochastic approaches to Bayesian inference.
Online method for state estimation and parameter learning in SSMs.
problem State estimation and parameter learning in state-space models.
method Stochastic gradient optimization of variational lower bound, using backward decompositions and Bellman recursions.
result Ability to operate online without revisiting historic observations.
Efficiently infers coupled hidden Markov models with noisy discrete observations.
problem Intractable inference for coupled continuous-time Markov chains with discrete observations.
method Latent Interacting Particle Systems, look-ahead functions, twisted Sequential Monte Carlo sampling.
result Demonstrated effectiveness on latent SIRS model and wildfire spread dynamics.
New method uses path signatures for efficient likelihood estimation in time-series data.
problem Intractable likelihood functions in complex dynamic models.
method Kernel classifier based on path signatures for sequential data.
result Path signatures yield highly performant classifiers, even with low sample numbers.
New method uses transport maps for efficient Bayesian inference.
problem Efficiently perform sequential Bayesian inference of static model parameters.
method Estimation of structured transport maps to extract conditional distributions.
result Gradient-based characterization of posterior density for online parameter estimation.
We use neural networks to estimate complex model posteriors efficiently.
problem Intractable likelihood functions in complex models.
method Train a neural network to map data to posterior distributions of model parameters.
result Our method converges to true posteriors in Kullback-Leibler divergence.
Preconditioned neural posterior estimation improves reliability in misspecified models.
problem Reliability issues in neural posterior estimation for misspecified models.
method Preconditioning with data-dependent weights and forest-proximity scores to stabilize and improve accuracy.
result Preconditioned robust neural posterior estimation increases stability and accuracy over standard methods.
Many recent advances in large scale probabilistic inference rely on variational methods. The success of variational approaches depends on (i) formulating a flexible parametric family of distributions, and (ii) optimizing the parameters to find the member of this family that most closely approximates the exact posterior…
Adapts MBDOE for real-time parameter estimation in complex systems.
problem Costly posterior inference and design optimization in nonlinear systems.
method Combines DAD with differentiable mechanistic models for real-time parameter estimation.
result Demonstrated on four systems, including a DC motor.
Sparse Gaussian process quantile regression tackles computational challenges in Bayesian quantile regression.
problem Nonconjugacy and computational cost in Gaussian process quantile regression.
method Sparse Gaussian process framework with Laplace approximation, adaptive inducing-input placement, and sequential data acquisition.
result Accuracy of Laplace approximation and effectiveness of adaptive mechanisms in reducing predictive uncertainty.
This work extends balancing to various simulation-based inference algorithms for more conservative posterior approximations.
problem Overconfident posterior approximations in simulation-based inference.
method Introduces a balanced version of neural posterior estimation and contrastive neural ratio estimation.
result Balanced versions tend to produce conservative posterior approximations on various benchmarks.
New method improves generative model performance by fully conditioning variational posteriors.
problem Inaccurate inference due to partial conditioning of variational posteriors in sequential LVMs.
method Introduces fully-conditioned approximate posteriors to improve generative model performance.
result Improves generative modelling and multi-step prediction performance.
We present a particle flow realization of Bayes' rule, where an ODE-based neural operator is used to transport particles from a prior to its posterior after a new observation. We prove that such an ODE operator exists. Its neural parameterization can be trained in a meta-learning framework, allowing this operator to re…
A new method for efficient inference in sequential latent-variable models.
problem Computational challenges in integrating subject-specific random effects.
method Anchored variational inference framework to approximate posterior distributions.
result The method achieves accurate estimation with significant computational gains.