In the compressive learning theory, instead of solving a statistical learning problem from the input data, a so-called sketch is computed from the data prior to learning. The sketch has to capture enough information to solve the problem directly from it, allowing to discard the dataset from the memory. This is useful w…
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arXiv research
A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
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48 results for “Semi-parametric Statistics”
The paper tackles robust policy learning in MDPs using statistical methods.
problem Offline data-driven sequential decision making in MDPs.
method Evaluates policies using average rewards centered at policy-induced stationary distributions. Developed a statistically efficient method for estimating robust optimal policies.
result Established a rate-optimal regret bound up to a logarithmic factor.
The paper develops efficient estimators for semi-parametric binary models in distributed computing.
problem Estimation and inference challenges in large-scale data under non-smooth objective functions.
method Proposes one-shot and multi-round divide-and-conquer estimators with adaptive kernel smoothing to relax constraints and achieve superlinear optimization error.
result Establishes quadratic convergence up to optimal statistical error rate and handles dataset heterogeneity and high-dimensional sparse parameters.
We analyze a simple prefiltered variation of the least squares estimator for the problem of estimation with biased, semi-parametric noise, an error model studied more broadly in causal statistics and active learning. We prove an oracle inequality which demonstrates that this procedure provably mitigates the variance in…
Develops coresets for scalable multivariate distribution estimation.
problem Handling large-scale data in non-parametric or semi-parametric regression and density estimation.
method Novel coreset construction for multivariate conditional transformation models (MCTMs).
result Substantial data reduction with high log-likelihood accuracy.
This research uses DPPs to improve semi-parametric regression models.
problem Improving comprehensibility in semi-parametric regression models without sacrificing accuracy.
method Introduced a novel representation of finite DPPs and used it to derive a key identity illustrating implicit regularization.
result Demonstrated the implicit regularization effect of determinantal sampling for semi-parametric regression.
Contrary to standard statistical models, unnormalised statistical models only specify the likelihood function up to a constant. While such models are natural and popular, the lack of normalisation makes inference much more difficult. Here we show that inferring the parameters of a unnormalised model on a space can …
The paper proposes a semi-parametric Bayesian network model using Gaussian Processes and Horseshoe priors.
problem Learning semi-parametric relationships in Expert Bayesian Networks with minimal nonlinear components.
method Uses Gaussian Processes and Horseshoe priors to model relationships, prioritizes modifying expert graphs, and generates diverse graphs.
result Models outperform state-of-the-art semi-parametric Bayesian Network models in synthetic and real-world datasets.
Proposes a new algorithm for graph-based semi-parametric contextual bandits.
problem Non-stationarity in human behavior and social interaction.
method SemiGraphTS algorithm for graph-based semi-parametric reward model.
result Derives an upper bound of cumulative regret for graph-based semi-parametric model.
Proposes extensions to semi-parametric models using BART for shared covariates.
problem Avoiding poor coverage properties and reducing bias in linear predictor estimates.
method Modifies tree-generation moves in BART to handle shared covariates between linear and non-parametric components.
result Competitive performance in modelling complex interactions and predicting student achievements.
Labels or Preferences? Budget-Constrained Learning with Human Judgments over AI-Generated Outputsstat.ML
Optimizes AI learning with limited human feedback budgets.
problem Optimizing allocation of a fixed annotation budget for AI learning.
method Preference-Calibrated Active Learning (PCAL) using semi-parametric inference.
result Proves asymptotic optimality and robustness of the PCAL estimator.
We present two new statistical machine learning methods designed to learn on fully homomorphic encrypted (FHE) data. The introduction of FHE schemes following Gentry (2009) opens up the prospect of privacy preserving statistical machine learning analysis and modelling of encrypted data without compromising security con…
Tail risk forecasting with semi-parametric regression models by incorporating overnight informationq-fin.RM
This study improves tail risk forecasting by integrating overnight information into semi-parametric models.
problem Improving tail risk forecasting in financial markets.
method Proposes RES-CAViaR-oc models combining overnight return and realized volatility, using Bayesian estimation.
result Realized volatility and overnight return significantly improve tail risk forecasting.
Physical modeling of robotic system behavior is the foundation for controlling many robotic mechanisms to a satisfactory degree. Mechanisms are also typically designed in a way that good model accuracy can be achieved with relatively simple models and model identification strategies. If the modeling accuracy using phys…
Semi-parametric survival analysis methods like the Cox Proportional Hazards (CPH) regression (Cox, 1972) are a popular approach for survival analysis. These methods involve fitting of the log-proportional hazard as a function of the covariates and are convenient as they do not require estimation of the baseline hazard …
This paper develops DRO estimators for EVT statistics using point processes.
problem Scarcity of extreme data leads to model misspecification error in EVT.
method Developed DRO estimators informed by semi-parametric max-stable constraints in the space of point processes.
result Proposed DRO estimators improve out-of-sample performance and are validated on synthetic and real data.
The paper connects semi-parametric estimates to European option pricing.
problem Estimating European option prices using semi-parametric methods.
method Connecting estimates by de la Peña, Ibragimov and Jordan, Scarf, and Lo.
result The estimates imply European option prices.
Paper compares different models for time-to-event analysis.
problem Comparing models for time-to-event analysis.
method Experimental comparison of semi-parametric, parametric, and machine learning models.
result Models' performance evaluated using concordance index.
Semi-parametric framework for nonlinear system identification
problem Nonlinear system identification
method Orthogonal Gaussian process regression
result Interpretable models from incomplete physics
SPQR package uses neural networks for flexible quantile regression.
problem Flexible modeling of non-linear relationships in quantile regression.
method Monotonic splines and neural networks for density estimation; model-agnostic covariate effects.
result Allows for non-linear and quantile-specific effects.
Study dynamic pricing with semi-parametric models to minimize regret.
problem Optimizing dynamic pricing in a noisy market with binary sales outcomes.
method Proposes a semi-parametric statistical learning policy combining GLM and online decision-making.
result Achieves a regret upper bound of $ ilde{O}_{d}(T^{ rac{2m+1}{4m-1}})$ under mild conditions.
In many real-world applications of machine learning classifiers, it is essential to predict the probability of an example belonging to a particular class. This paper proposes a simple technique for predicting probabilities based on optimizing a ranking loss, followed by isotonic regression. This semi-parametric techniq…
A new model forecasts financial risks using multiple realized measures.
problem Forecasting financial risks using multiple realized measures.
method Developed a semi-parametric joint VaR and ES forecasting framework using realized measures.
result The proposed model outperformed other models in forecasting financial risks.
We present the FuSSO, a functional analogue to the LASSO, that efficiently finds a sparse set of functional input covariates to regress a real-valued response against. The FuSSO does so in a semi-parametric fashion, making no parametric assumptions about the nature of input functional covariates and assuming a linear f…
Semi-Supervised U-statisticsmath.ST
Enhances U-statistics for semi-supervised datasets using unlabeled data.
problem Efficiently utilizing unlabeled data in semi-supervised settings.
method Semi-supervised U-statistics enhanced by unlabeled data.
result Proposed method is asymptotically Normal and more efficient than classical U-statistics.
Estimating linear, mean-square continuous functionals is a pivotal challenge in statistics. In high-dimensional contexts, this estimation is often performed under the assumption of exact model sparsity, meaning that only a small number of parameters are precisely non-zero. This excludes models where linear formulations…
We consider estimating the parametric components of semi-parametric multiple index models in a high-dimensional and non-Gaussian setting. Such models form a rich class of non-linear models with applications to signal processing, machine learning and statistics. Our estimators leverage the score function based first and…
PGF kernels analyze spherical data using generalized RBF kernels.
problem Analysis of spherical data.
method Introduced PGF kernels and a semi-parametric learning algorithm.
result PGF kernels generalize RBF kernels for spherical data.
We address challenges in estimating parameters from adaptively collected data.
problem Estimating parameters from data collected adaptively leads to non-normal asymptotic distributions.
method We develop semi-parametric estimators that account for adaptivity in data collection.
result Our estimators are asymptotically normal under certain conditions.
Fair Inference On Outcomesstat.ML
In this paper, we consider the problem of fair statistical inference involving outcome variables. Examples include classification and regression problems, and estimating treatment effects in randomized trials or observational data. The issue of fairness arises in such problems where some covariates or treatments are "s…
The paper studies binary classification and aims at estimating the underlying regression function which is the conditional expectation of the class labels given the inputs. The regression function is the key component of the Bayes optimal classifier, moreover, besides providing optimal predictions, it can also assess t…
This paper presents a semi-parametric algorithm for online learning of a robot inverse dynamics model. It combines the strength of the parametric and non-parametric modeling. The former exploits the rigid body dynamics equa- tion, while the latter exploits a suitable kernel function. We provide an extensive comparison …
We consider off-policy evaluation and optimization with continuous action spaces. We focus on observational data where the data collection policy is unknown and needs to be estimated. We take a semi-parametric approach where the value function takes a known parametric form in the treatment, but we are agnostic on how i…
Develops a new framework for joint portfolio risk forecasting.
problem Joint portfolio risk forecasting, especially for Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall.
method Semi-parametric multivariate framework with dynamic conditional correlation modeling.
result The proposed model outperforms existing approaches in risk forecasting.
New method removes interference bias in causal models.
problem Interference bias impedes causal effect identification in real-world settings.
method Novel definition of causal models with local interference, semi-parametric assumptions.
result True Average Causal Effect can be identified in certain semi-parametric models with local interference.
Zero-Inflated Banditsstat.ML
New bandit algorithms improve sparse reward learning.
problem Sparse rewards hinder learning efficiency in real-world bandit applications.
method Developed algorithms based on Upper Confidence Bound and Thompson Sampling for zero-inflated distributions.
result Empirical performance of new algorithms is superior to existing methods.
Scientists develop a model to identify treatment responders from non-responders.
problem Analyzing samples that respond to treatment in studies.
method Causal two-groups (C2G) model, empirical Bayes procedures.
result The C2G model controls false discovery rate and has near-optimal power.
Single Index Models (SIMs) are simple yet flexible semi-parametric models for classification and regression. Response variables are modeled as a nonlinear, monotonic function of a linear combination of features. Estimation in this context requires learning both the feature weights, and the nonlinear function. While met…
DebiNet uses over-parameterized neural networks to improve linear model performance and debiasing.
problem Improving linear model performance and debiasing in high-dimensional settings.
method Incorporates over-parameterized neural networks into semi-parametric models to estimate parameters consistently.
result DebiNet offers valid inference and accurate prediction by leveraging neural networks' universal approximation and linear model's interpretability.
Generalizes prediction-powered inference for binary classifier evaluation.
problem Evaluation of binary classifiers with partially observed outcomes.
method Generalizes PPI to any regular asymptotically linear estimator and proposes modified estimators for covariate shift.
result PPI can be a computationally-simple alternative to existing methods, achieving no greater than the semi-parametric efficiency lower bound in certain scenarios.
We find that the CAPM fails to explain the small firm effect even if its non-parametric form is used which allows time-varying risk and non-linearity in the pricing function. Furthermore, the linearity of the CAPM can be rejected, thus the widely used risk and performance measures, the beta and the alpha, are biased an…
A new principle for extrapolating regression outside training data.
problem Regression extrapolation when predictions are outside training data range.
method Data-adaptive marginal transformation and simple relationship assumption.
result Progression method offers guarantees on approximation error beyond training data range.
In this paper we present an application of the use of autocopulas for modelling financial time series showing serial dependencies that are not necessarily linear. The approach presented here is semi-parametric in that it is characterized by a non-parametric autocopula and parametric marginals. One advantage of using au…
Study compares neural and statistical models for Parkinson's disease progression from voice data.
problem Difficult statistical analysis of longitudinal voice biomarkers due to subject correlation, small cohorts, and varied disease trajectories.
method Evaluated Neural Mixed Effects (NME), Generalized Neural Network Mixed Models (GNMMs), and semi-parametric Generalized Additive Mixed Models (GAMMs).
result GAMMs achieve stronger predictive performance and retain interpretable smooth effects and subject-level structure.
Study optimizes estimating linear functionals from observational data without strict overlap.
problem Estimating linear functionals from observational data with strict overlap assumption violated.
method Kernel-based approach for non-asymptotic local minimax bounds.
result Achieves optimal risk for estimating linear functionals in observational data.
Bayesian synthetic likelihood (BSL) is a popular method for estimating the parameter posterior distribution for complex statistical models and stochastic processes that possess a computationally intractable likelihood function. Instead of evaluating the likelihood, BSL approximates the likelihood of a judiciously chose…
In this paper, we consider a generalized multivariate regression problem where the responses are monotonic functions of linear transformations of predictors. We propose a semi-parametric algorithm based on the ordering of the responses which is invariant to the functional form of the transformation function. We prove t…
Theory and methods to mitigate omitted variable bias in causal machine learning.
problem Mitigating omitted variable bias in causal machine learning models.
method Developed a general theory and flexible statistical inference methods for bounding and testing the magnitude of omitted variable bias.
result Simple plausibility judgments can bound the magnitude of omitted variable bias in complex, nonlinear models.