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A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

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48 results for Score Estimation

ScoreMatchingRiesz improves debiased machine learning and policy effects estimation.

problem Improving debiased machine learning and policy effects estimation.
method Score matching and Riesz representer estimation.
result Estimates policy path for continuous treatments, improving interpretability.

Proposes SD-KDE for density estimation using debiased kernel density with score-based adjustments.

problem Density estimation with bias in kernel density estimation.
method Adjusts data points by taking a step along the estimated score function, then applies standard KDE with modified bandwidth.
result Significantly reduces mean integrated squared error compared to standard Silverman KDE, especially with noisy score function estimates.

The article reviews scoring rules for estimating and evaluating forecasts.

problem Evaluating probabilistic forecasts and estimating probability distributions.
method Mathematical foundations and characterization of scoring rules.
result Important families of scoring rules and their applications in statistics and machine learning.

DDSME outperforms SME in estimating multimodal distributions.

problem Efficiency of score matching in multimodal distributions.
method Diffusion-based denoising score matching (DDSME) compared to vanilla score matching (SME).
result DDSME avoids the error bound deterioration of SME with increasing mode separation.

Improved score matching methods for estimating score functions and Hessians without high dimensionality.

problem Estimating score functions and Hessians efficiently in high-dimensional data.
method Implicit score matching and denoising score matching, leveraging Gagliardo-Nirenberg inequalities.
result Achieves convergence rates similar to denoising score matching and estimates Hessians without dimensionality issues.

Langevin dynamics fails to produce accurate samples even with small score function errors.

problem Robustness of Langevin dynamics to score function errors.
method Analysis of Langevin dynamics and score function errors.
result Langevin dynamics produces a distribution far from the target distribution in TV distance even with small L2L^2 errors in the score function.

Post-calibration improves the accuracy of causal effect estimation.

problem Improperly calibrated propensity scores lead to inaccurate causal effect estimation.
method Performed a simulation study to assess the impact of post-calibration on causal effect estimation.
result Post-calibration reduces the error in estimating the average treatment effect, especially for expressive uncalibrated statistical estimators.

Deconfounding scores improve causal effect estimation with weak overlap.

problem Challenges in causal treatment effect estimation due to weak overlap in high-dimensional data.
method Propose deconfounding scores to preserve identification and target estimation while improving overlap.
result Prognostic scores are overlap-optimal under a broad family of generalized linear models with Gaussian features.

Score matching method improves density estimation for truncated data on manifolds.

problem Density estimation for truncated data on manifolds with intractable normalising constant.
method Truncated score matching extended to Riemannian manifolds with boundary.
result Score matching estimator approximates true parameter values with low error.

This work extends diffusion models to handle heavy-tailed targets, improving score estimation and sampling guarantees.

problem Score estimation and sampling guarantees for heavy-tailed targets in diffusion models.
method Kernel density estimation and minimax rates analysis for score estimation and sampling guarantees.
result Sharp minimax rates for score estimation and sampling guarantees for heavy-tailed targets, revealing qualitative differences between exponential and polynomial tails.

This study optimizes covariate density and propensity score for efficient ATE estimation.

problem Efficiently estimating average treatment effects (ATEs) with minimal variance.
method Adaptive experiment optimizing both covariate density and propensity score.
result Proposed method minimizes the semiparametric efficiency bound for ATE estimation.

The paper establishes bounds for score-matching in causal discovery and generative modeling.

problem Estimating causal relationships from data.
method Training a deep neural network to estimate the score function and applying it to causal discovery.
result Bounds on the error rate of causal discovery methods using score-matching.

Improves robustness of propensity score estimators in challenging settings.

problem Limited overlap, small sample sizes, or unbalanced data.
method Extends calibration techniques for propensity score models, focusing on sample-splitting schemes.
result Calibration reduces variance and bias in inverse probability weighting and double/debiased machine learning frameworks.

The Brier score is commonly used for evaluating probability predictions. In survival analysis, with right-censored observations of the event times, this score can be weighted by the inverse probability of censoring (IPCW) to retain its original interpretation. It is common practice to estimate the censoring distributio…

2019-12-18abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper investigates how calibrating propensity scores improves DML estimates of average treatment effects.

problem Improving the accuracy of DML estimates in finite samples.
method Propensity score calibration within the Double/debiased machine learning framework.
result Calibrating propensity scores reduces the root mean squared error of DML estimates of average treatment effects in finite samples.

Proposes a method to stabilize treatment effect estimation with unbalanced data.

problem Unbalanced treatment assignment leading to unstable propensity score estimations.
method Undersamples data for propensity score modeling and calibrates scores to match original distribution.
result The estimator retains asymptotic properties of the DML estimator and improves finite sample performance.

Study minimax risk of score estimation for log-concave distributions.

problem Minimizing risk in score estimation for log-concave distributions.
method Developed subclasses of log-concave densities and constructed a locally adaptive, multiscale estimator.
result Established minimax rates for score estimation over specific subclasses of log-concave densities.

Improved sampling efficiency for inverse problems using variance-reduced diffusion methods.

problem Efficiently estimating noisy scores in inverse problems.
method Developed a nonparametric self-normalized importance sampling estimator and a state-dependent blending rule.
result Improved sample quality for fixed simulation budgets in synthetic targets and PDE-governed inverse problems.

A new method samples from a target density without initial samples using Monte Carlo estimation of the score.

problem Sampling from a target density without initial samples.
method Monte Carlo estimation of the score using oracle access to the log likelihood.
result Samples can be produced from the target density without needing initial samples.

Study finds simple model-agreement scores perform well in various error estimation scenarios.

problem Evaluating model performance on unseen distributions using disparate scoring functions.
method Rigorously studied popular scoring functions (confidence, local manifold smoothness, model agreement) independently of mechanism choice.
result Simple model-agreement scores outperform confidence- and smoothness-based scores in realistic settings with compromised training data.

This work sets lower bounds on the number of score queries needed for diffusion sampling.

problem Establishing information-theoretic limits on the number of score evaluations required for diffusion sampling.
method Proving lower bounds on the number of adaptive score queries needed for sampling.
result Any sampling algorithm requires at least \(\widetilde{\Omega}(\sqrt{d})\) adaptive score queries for \(d\)-dimensional distributions.

New machine learning methods for inference from simulated data.

problem Modeling score and likelihood ratio functions from sampled data.
method InferoStatic Networks (ISN), Kernel Score Estimation (KSE), Kernel Likelihood Ratio Estimation (KLRE).
result Improved inference methods for complex models.

Estimates system parameters from a single observation using kernel-based score.

problem Estimating parameters of a dynamical system from a high-dimensional signal.
method Kernel-based score to compare temporal dependencies between signal and model.
result Accuracy and efficiency demonstrated on chaotic systems.

SMT trains generative models by estimating mixture scores, outperforming existing methods.

problem Training one-step generative models efficiently and effectively.
method Score-of-Mixture Training (SMT) estimates the score of mixture distributions between real and fake samples.
result SMT/SMD outperform existing methods on CIFAR-10 and ImageNet 64x64 datasets.

Paper efficiently infers differential parameters in time-varying models using time score matching.

problem Efficiently inferring differential parameters in time-varying probabilistic models.
method Directly estimates the differential parameter using time score matching and proves consistency of the method.
result Consistent estimation of parameter derivatives in high-dimensional settings.

This paper presents a brand new nonparametric density estimation strategy named the best-scored random forest density estimation whose effectiveness is supported by both solid theoretical analysis and significant experimental performance. The terminology best-scored stands for selecting one density tree with the best e…

2019-05-09abs ↗pdf ↗