Deep-PrAE improves rare-event simulation for black-box systems.
problem Evaluating rare safety-critical events in learning-based systems.
method Combines deep neural networks with IS to create statistically guaranteed estimations.
result Deep-PrAE provides accurate bounds on safety-critical event probabilities.
Develops a method to simulate rare dangerous events in autonomous systems.
problem Rare dangerous events in safety-critical systems are hard to test in real-world settings.
method Combines exploration, exploitation, and optimization techniques for rare-event simulation.
result Provides rigorous guarantees for the performance of the method.
CalNF models rare failures with limited data, improving safety in autonomous systems.
problem Challenges in modeling and debugging rare safety-critical failures due to limited data.
method CalNF, a self-regularized framework for posterior learning from limited data.
result Achieves state-of-the-art performance on data-limited failure modeling and inverse problems.
Proposes a method to ensure accurate estimation of rare events in AI systems.
problem Lack of efficiency guarantees in black-box systems for rare-event simulation.
method Integrates deep learning with importance sampling to create a statistically guaranteed estimator.
result Demonstrates effective estimation of rare-event probabilities in AI systems.
CitySim dataset captures vehicle trajectories for safety research.
problem Lack of fine-grain vehicle trajectories for safety-oriented research.
method Five-step procedure: video stabilization, object filtering, stitching, detection, and error filtering.
result CitySim dataset improves safety evaluations and facilitates digital-twin research.
CARL safely adapts RL agents for safety-critical tasks.
problem Safety hazards in RL for safety-critical tasks.
method CARL combines model-based RL and cautious adaptation.
result CARL achieves higher rewards with fewer failures in safety-critical tasks.
Generates multimodal safety-critical scenarios for robustness evaluation of decision-making algorithms.
problem Lack of comprehensive evaluation of neural network robustness under real-world scenarios.
method Proposes a flow-based multimodal scenario generator using weighted likelihood maximization and gradient-based sampling.
result Demonstrates improved testing efficiency and multimodal modeling capability compared to traditional methods.
Safety evaluation of self-driving technologies has been extensively studied. One recent approach uses Monte Carlo based evaluation to estimate the occurrence probabilities of safety-critical events as safety measures. These Monte Carlo samples are generated from stochastic input models constructed based on real-world d…
Novel method detects faults in helicopter transmissions using healthy data only.
problem Detecting faults in rare events in helicopter transmissions.
method Probabilistic anomaly detection using Bayesian measures.
result Method achieves competitive detection performance in real-world and benchmark applications.
A framework identifies worst-case decision points in safety-critical scenarios, improving risk assessment by 10 hours.
problem Identifying worst-case outcomes in safety-critical decision-making under uncertainty.
method Explicitly estimating distributions of expected return to identify dead-ends, tuning based on risk tolerance.
result Significantly improves risk assessment, providing indications 10 hours earlier and increasing detection by 20%.
SGPA calibrates transformer uncertainty for safety-critical tasks.
problem Uncertainty estimation in transformer models for safety-critical domains.
method Bayesian inference in transformer's output space using sparse Gaussian processes.
result SGPA-based Transformers improve in-distribution calibration and out-of-distribution robustness.
The paper tackles MAP inference over non-convex constraints in safety-critical settings.
problem Efficiently computing MAP predictions subject to non-convex constraints is challenging.
method The paper investigates conditions for exact and efficient MAP inference over continuous variables and devises scalable algorithms for both tractable and general cases.
result The proposed methods outperform constraint-agnostic baselines and scale to complex densities.
This paper compares uncertainty estimation methods for deep learning in autonomous vehicles.
problem Ensuring safety in autonomous vehicles through accurate uncertainty quantification in deep learning models.
method A comparative survey of uncertainty quantification methods in deep neural networks.
result Different methods for uncertainty quantification in DNNs have advantages and downsides for specific AV tasks and types of uncertainty.
Paper models entropy-based impact of soft errors on neural network inference.
problem Estimating impact of radiation-induced faults on neural network inference.
method Entropy-based statistical models for SEU and MBU across layers.
result Accurate models to evaluate error-resiliency of neural network topologies.
Fatal accidents are a major issue hindering the wide acceptance of safety-critical systems using machine-learning and deep-learning models, such as automated-driving vehicles. Quality assurance frameworks are required for such machine learning systems, but there are no widely accepted and established quality-assurance …
ViTaX provides formal guarantees for targeted explanations in safety-critical systems.
problem Need trustworthy explanations for safety-critical deep neural networks.
method Formal reachability analysis for targeted, semifactual explanations.
result First method to provide formally guaranteed explanations of model resilience.
Research tackles safety of deep learning in safety-critical tasks.
problem Safety concerns of deep learning in perception tasks for autonomous agents.
method Technical enumeration and discussions on safety concerns and mitigation methods.
result Need for more mitigation methods to ensure safety of deep learning.
DL models for MTS regression are vulnerable to adversarial attacks, posing risks in safety-critical applications.
problem Vulnerability of DL models to adversarial examples in MTS regression.
method Adversarial attack generation techniques from image classification were adapted for MTS.
result All state-of-the-art DL regression models (CNN, LSTM, GRU) are vulnerable to adversarial attacks.
While machine learning systems show high success rate in many complex tasks, research shows they can also fail in very unexpected situations. Rise of machine learning products in safety-critical industries cause an increase in attention in evaluating model robustness and estimating failure probability in machine learni…
Adversarial attacks pose a threat to deep neural networks, especially in safety-critical applications.
problem Adversarial attacks can misclassify deep neural networks, leading to safety issues.
method Adversarial attacks are categorized into white-box and black-box attacks based on the attacker's knowledge. They can be targeted or non-targeted.
result Adversarial attacks are effective and can transfer between different models and real-world scenarios.
The paper tackles safe exploration in RL by a conservative safety critic.
problem Safe exploration in reinforcement learning (RL) when partially trained policies are deployed.
method Learning a conservative safety estimate through a critic, provably bounding catastrophic failures.
result The approach provably converges to competitive task performance with significantly lower catastrophic failure rates.
The paper tackles uncertainty in multi-objective decision-making.
problem Learning Pareto-efficient decisions with statistical confidence in uncertain outcomes.
method Adapting Pareto-efficient decisions to uncertainty, using conformal prediction.
result Statistical guarantees for efficient decisions in uncertain contexts.
The safety and resilience of fully autonomous vehicles (AVs) are of significant concern, as exemplified by several headline-making accidents. While AV development today involves verification, validation, and testing, end-to-end assessment of AV systems under accidental faults in realistic driving scenarios has been lar…
PAC-Wrap provides provable guarantees for semi-supervised anomaly detection.
problem Ensuring reliable anomaly detection in safety-critical applications.
method PAC-Wrap wraps around existing anomaly detection methods to provide PAC guarantees.
result PAC-Wrap effectively provides rigorous guarantees for various anomaly detectors.
Paper reviews robustness in machine learning models and discusses training and certification methods.
problem Ensuring reliability of machine learning models in safety-critical systems.
method Reviews formalisms and discusses training and certification techniques.
result Identifies future research directions in robust machine learning.
Survey of algorithms for testing AI-driven CPS safety.
problem Testing AI-driven CPS for safety in complex environments.
method Survey of applied algorithms for safety validation.
result Survey of existing tools and techniques for safety validation.
New method for Bayesian inference of Lévy-driven SDEs with jumps.
problem Bayesian inference for Lévy-driven SDEs is challenging due to discontinuities and heavy tails.
method Neural exponential tilting framework for variational inference.
result Accurately captures jump dynamics and reliable posterior inference in heavy-tailed regimes.
Paper proposes a dataset quality process for ML systems.
problem Inadequate standards for ML datasets in safety-critical systems.
method Proposes a dataset specification and verification process.
result Demonstrates the process on a railway signal recognition system.
This paper addresses the problem of evaluating learning systems in safety critical domains such as autonomous driving, where failures can have catastrophic consequences. We focus on two problems: searching for scenarios when learned agents fail and assessing their probability of failure. The standard method for agent e…
With rapid progress and significant successes in a wide spectrum of applications, deep learning is being applied in many safety-critical environments. However, deep neural networks have been recently found vulnerable to well-designed input samples, called adversarial examples. Adversarial examples are imperceptible to …
Improves RL generalization by minimizing adversarial risk.
problem Overfitting to training environments and poor generalization to unseen scenarios.
method Introduces minimax formulation and distributional framework to RL.
result Trained policy shows improved generalization to different environments.
Semantic Embeddings are a popular way to represent knowledge in the field of zero-shot learning. We observe their interpretability and discuss their potential utility in a safety-critical context. Concretely, we propose to use them to add introspection and error detection capabilities to neural network classifiers. Fir…
Meta-active learning optimizes control of safety-critical systems by efficiently learning dynamics and configurations.
problem Efficiently learning system dynamics and optimal configurations for safety-critical systems like deep brain stimulation.
method Meta-learning an acquisition function using LSTM, cast as meta-learning, with a mixed-integer linear program policy.
result Achieved a 46% increase in information gain and a 20% speedup in computation time over baselines.
The paper evaluates and improves uncertainty estimates in neural networks for safety-critical applications.
problem Quantifying uncertainty in neural networks for safety-critical systems.
method Proposes a statistical test for evaluating uncertainty realism in neural networks and transfers a classification architecture to image-to-image tasks.
result The variational U-Net architecture significantly improves uncertainty realism in image-to-image tasks compared to a plain model.
Develops a neural model to predict event occurrence and timing.
problem Standard event time models ignore the distinction between event occurrence probability and predicted time.
method Introduces a conditional event time model using a neural network with a binary stochastic layer.
result Shows superior event occurrence and timing predictions on various datasets.
Efficient classifier with uncertainty bounds for safety-critical applications.
problem Lack of uncertainty bounds in high-accuracy classifiers for safety-critical tasks.
method Nadaraya-Watson estimator with frequentist bounds.
result Competitive accuracy and uncertainty bounds at reduced computational cost.
Guaranteed reachable set for unknown nonlinear systems on manifolds.
problem Determining reachable set for unknown nonlinear systems on manifolds.
method Underapproximations of reachable set using local dynamics and bounds on dynamics rate of change.
result Guaranteed set of reachable states for systems on complete Riemannian manifolds.
Paper proposes a new trading strategy using corporate event detection from news articles.
problem Predicting stock movements based on corporate events from news articles.
method Bi-level event detection model: low-level for token-level event identification, high-level for article-level event identification.
result The proposed strategy outperforms existing models in stock prediction metrics.
Novel framework for unbiased confidence estimates in object detection.
problem Unbiased confidence estimates for safety-critical object detection.
method Combines regression output with additional information for calibration.
result Calibrated confidence estimates for image location and scale.
Events are happening in real-world and real-time, which can be planned and organized occasions involving multiple people and objects. Social media platforms publish a lot of text messages containing public events with comprehensive topics. However, mining social events is challenging due to the heterogeneous event elem…
AUC is unreliable in rare event settings but stable with moderate numbers of events.
problem Misleading performance metrics in rare event settings.
method Simulation study varying dataset sizes and event rates.
result AUC is unreliable in rare event settings but stable with moderate numbers of events.
Decomposes epistemic uncertainty into per-class contributions for safer classification.
problem Asymmetric costs in safety-critical classification.
method Decomposes mutual information into per-class vector Ck using second-order Taylor expansion. result Decomposition improves selective risk by 34.7% and 56.2% over existing metrics.
Non-spanning identification of scheduled event risk in option pricing.
problem Separating continuous surface from scheduled jump in option pricing.
method Modeling FOMC decisions, CPI releases, and NFP reports as deterministic-time jumps in risk-neutral option pricing.
result Improves held-out event-spanning pricing with Gaussian and two-component mixture jumps.
Combining feature importance estimates improves reliability of machine learning predictions.
problem Lack of consensus on feature importance quantification makes explanations unreliable.
method Proposes a feature importance fusion framework combining multiple quantifiers.
result Feature importance ensembles reduce prediction error by 15%.
New approach predicts event probabilities for better event detection.
problem Class imbalance and inaccurate event detection in time series analysis.
method Regression-based approach to predict probability densities at event locations.
result Regression-based approaches outperform segmentation-based methods.
Naturalistic driving trajectories are crucial for the performance of autonomous driving algorithms. However, most of the data is collected in safe scenarios leading to the duplication of trajectories which are easy to be handled by currently developed algorithms. When considering safety, testing algorithms in near-miss…
Study examines HTE estimation from time-to-event data with competing events.
problem Estimating HTEs from time-to-event data with competing events.
method Outcome modeling approach using plug-in estimators for potential outcomes.
result Competing events introduce new challenges for HTE estimation.
CAUSE learns Granger causality from event sequences, outperforming existing methods.
problem Learning Granger causality from complex, interdependent event sequences.
method CAUSE uses a neural point process to capture interdependency and an attribution method to extract Granger causality.
result CAUSE outperforms state-of-the-art methods in inferring inter-type Granger causality.