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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,657 papers · 148 categories

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115230344459 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for SHAP analysis

New method explains survival analysis models using median-SHAP.

problem Need for explainable AI in medical applications, especially for survival analysis.
method Introduces median-SHAP for explaining survival analysis models.
result Conventionally used mean anchor point can lead to misleading interpretations; median-SHAP provides a better approach.

The paper explores SHAP scores and their connection to functional ANOVA, highlighting challenges in approximations.

problem Estimating SHAP scores and understanding their limitations.
method Using the connection to functional ANOVA, the paper outlines the challenges in SHAP approximations and their relation to feature distribution and ANOVA terms.
result Challenges in SHAP approximations are primarily due to feature distribution and the number of ANOVA terms estimated.

This paper analyzes SHAP values using Fourier expansions for model interpretability.

problem Understanding and interpreting SHAP values in complex models.
method Developed a spectral framework using Fourier expansions for SHAP values in various model regimes.
result SHAP values are Lipschitz continuous in the deterministic regime and converge to Gaussian process values in the probabilistic regime.

We solve the ANOVA decomposition for categorical inputs.

problem Lack of a closed-form expression for ANOVA decomposition with categorical dependent variables.
method Bridge functional analysis with discrete Fourier analysis to derive a closed-form decomposition.
result Closed-form decomposition for categorical inputs without assumptions.

Paper proposes a new method to evaluate AI model interpretability in bond default prediction.

problem Lack of standardized method to assess inherent interpretability of AI models.
method Uses LIME and SHAP to assess feature contributions in bond default prediction.
result Consistent results with intuitive understanding of model interpretability.

Study shows how financial report sentiment impacts bank profitability.

problem Understanding causal effects of financial report sentiment on bank profitability.
method Causal forest machine learning methodology, FinancialBERT sentiment scores, SHAP analysis, comprehensive dataset.
result Statistically significant causal associations between balance sheet and expense management variables and profitability.

Study shows safely discarding features based on aggregate SHAP values is sound.

problem Discarding features based on aggregate SHAP values without proper justification.
method Investigated the soundness of discarding features based on aggregate SHAP values, proposing to aggregate SHAP values over the extended support.
result A small aggregate SHAP value implies safely discarding the corresponding feature.

Proposes φφ-table for statistical SHAP explanations in regression models.

problem Lack of clear directional summaries, uncertainty, and fidelity in SHAP feature importance.
method SHAP importance selection, fitting a standardized linear surrogate, reporting coefficients, uncertainty, fidelity, and stability.
result Extends SHAP into a statistical global explanation with direction, uncertainty, fidelity, and stability.

In the past years, many new explanation methods have been proposed to achieve interpretability of machine learning predictions. However, the utility of these methods in practical applications has not been researched extensively. In this paper we present the results of a human-grounded evaluation of SHAP, an explanation…

2019-07-07abs ↗pdf ↗

Q-SHAP efficiently calculates feature contributions in boosting trees.

problem Global evaluation of feature contributions in tree models.
method Q-SHAP, an efficient algorithm that reduces Shapley values calculation to polynomial time.
result Q-SHAP improves computational efficiency and enhances accuracy of feature-specific R2R^2 estimates.

An imprecise SHAP method explains class probabilities with limited data.

problem Explaining class probabilities with limited training data.
method New approach for computing feature marginal contributions and general approach to interval-valued Shapley values.
result The imprecise SHAP method improves explanation of class probabilities.

Conformal prediction fails under severe feature turnover in COVID-19 supply chain tasks.

problem Dealing with distribution shift in conformal prediction models.
method Using COVID-19 as a natural experiment across 8 supply chain tasks, analyzing SHAP explanations.
result Coverage drops vary widely (0% to 86.7%) and correlate with single-feature dependence.

This paper introduces glocal explanations for expected goal models in soccer.

problem Limited interpretability of expected goal models trained with black-box methods.
method Proposes glocal explanations using aggregated SHAP values and partial dependence profiles.
result Extracts knowledge from expected goal models for teams and players, enhancing performance analysis.

The paper develops statistical inference methods for SHAP values.

problem Lack of statistical inference for SHAP values in model-agnostic feature importance.
method Semi-parametric approach using U-statistics and Neyman orthogonal scores for functionals of nested regressions.
result Asymptotically normal estimates of the pth powers of SHAP values for various p.

With the advent of GDPR, the domain of explainable AI and model interpretability has gained added impetus. Methods to extract and communicate visibility into decision-making models have become legal requirement. Two specific types of explanations, contrastive and counterfactual have been identified as suitable for huma…

2019-06-21abs ↗pdf ↗

Study proposes a new financial market representation for machine learning.

problem Complex analysis of financial time series for machine learning.
method Volume-price-based statistical approach.
result Proposed method outperforms price levels-based method on liquid markets.

G-SHAP generates multiple types of explanations for machine learning models.

problem Understanding model predictions and their differences across groups.
method Generalization of SHAP method to produce additional types of explanations.
result G-SHAP produces explanations for classification, intergroup differences, and model failure.

SHAP Distance assesses semantic fidelity of synthetic tabular data.

problem Semantic fidelity of synthetic tabular data is not well evaluated.
method SHAP Distance, defined as cosine distance between global SHAP attribution vectors.
result SHAP Distance detects semantic discrepancies overlooked by standard measures.

CatNet controls FDR in LSTM models using SHAP feature importance and Gaussian mirrors.

problem Controlling False Discovery Rate (FDR) in LSTM models with feature selection.
method CatNet uses SHAP values for feature importance and Gaussian Mirror algorithm for FDR control. It introduces a kernel-based independence measure to handle feature correlations.
result CatNet reduces overfitting and improves model interpretability on simulated and real-world data.

The paper uses SHAP for interpreting machine learning models in hospital data.

problem Interpreting machine learning models in healthcare.
method SHAP for feature importance and feature packing techniques.
result SHAP provides better interpretability of machine learning models in healthcare.

New framework for fairness in machine learning models using SHAP values and adversarial learning.

problem Fairness of model predictions, especially for unprivileged groups.
method Develops a new fairness definition and a framework using SHAP values and adversarial learning to mitigate bias.
result Models produced are fairer and performant, demonstrating the approach on various datasets.

Cryptocurrency patterns stable across market caps, validated by microstructure theory.

problem Stable patterns in cryptocurrency microstructure across different market caps.
method Unified CatBoost modeling pipeline with time-series cross validation, validated by backtests.
result Feature rankings and partial effects are stable across assets despite heterogeneous liquidity and volatility.

This study aims to predict vessel stay and delay times at ports to optimize logistics.

problem Uncertainties in maritime logistics, including weather, cargo diversity, and port dynamics, lead to increased costs and inefficiencies.
method Developed predictive analytics to address shortcomings in previous works, using feature analysis and SHAP explanations.
result Predictive analytics can assist in efficient planning and scheduling of port operations, reducing costs and improving logistics.

Enhanced loss function boosts fraud detection in auto insurance claims.

problem Class imbalance in auto insurance fraud detection.
method Structured three-stage training framework integrating convex surrogate, non-convex intermediate, and standard focal loss.
result Improves minority-class F1-scores and AUC compared to baseline methods.

Study detects unlawful insider trading using SHAP and CF, identifying key features.

problem Detecting and explaining unlawful insider trading with MNPI.
method Combining Shapley Values and Causal Forest approaches.
result Identifies key features explaining unlawful insider trading.

Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks offer interpretable models for energy applications.

problem Lack of interpretability in modern machine learning methods for sensitive industries.
method Symbolic regression with Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks compared to traditional feedforward neural networks.
result Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks yield perfectly interpretable models and learn real, physical relations.

We discuss promising recent contributions on quantifying feature relevance using Shapley values, where we observed some confusion on which probability distribution is the right one for dropped features. We argue that the confusion is based on not carefully distinguishing between observational and interventional conditi…

2019-10-29abs ↗pdf ↗

Interpreting predictions from tree ensemble methods such as gradient boosting machines and random forests is important, yet feature attribution for trees is often heuristic and not individualized for each prediction. Here we show that popular feature attribution methods are inconsistent, meaning they can lower a featur…

2018-02-12abs ↗pdf ↗

Machine learning models predict the behavior of negatively buoyant jets from wastewater.

problem Minimizing harmful effects of negatively buoyant jets during wastewater discharge.
method Training machine learning models (ANN, XGBoost, CatBoost, LightGBM) on OpenFOAM simulations and experimental data.
result Artificial Neural Network provided the best prediction with R2 0.98 and RMSE 0.28.

Study predicts soccer player market values using machine learning and SHAP for interpretability.

problem Predicting accurate market values for professional soccer players.
method Ensemble machine learning models, SHAP for interpretability, Boruta for feature selection.
result GBDT model achieved high predictive accuracy (R-squared 0.901, RMSE 3,221,632.175).

This research simplifies computation of feature attribution methods under certain conditions.

problem Computational complexity of feature attribution methods, especially power indices.
method Identifying conditions for polynomial computation and introducing new indices.
result Conditions for efficient computation of feature attribution methods are identified.

Machine learning predicts homicide clearance rates with SHAP explaining key features.

problem Predicting and explaining homicide clearance rates in the US.
method Nine algorithmic approaches compared; XGBoost selected. SHAP used for feature importance.
result XGBoost best predicts national homicide clearance rates; SHAP reveals key features.

RoSHAP stabilizes feature attribution in machine learning models.

problem Stochastic variation in feature attribution measures.
method Modeling feature attribution score distribution and estimating it through bootstrap resampling and kernel density estimation.
result RoSHAP provides stable feature rankings and improves model performance.