A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
New method accurately reconstructs Russell 3000 index, revealing crowded portfolios.
VNA solves large portfolio optimization problems efficiently.
Using the most comprehensive, commercially-available dataset of trading activity in U.S. equity markets, we catalog and analyze quote dislocations between the SIP National Best Bid and Offer (NBBO) and a synthetic BBO constructed from direct feeds. We observe a total of over 3.1 billion dislocation segments in the Russ…
Model predicts activist fund targets with 78.2% accuracy.
Membership in the Russell 1000 and 2000 Indices is based on a ranking of market capitalization in May. Each index is separately value weighted such that firms just inside the Russell 2000 are comparable in size to firms just outside (i.e. at the bottom of the Russell 1000) but have much higher index weights. These feat…
Study investor attention using search volume data before and after mobile device popularity.
Markowitz (1952, 1959) laid down the ground-breaking work on the mean-variance analysis. Under his framework, the theoretical optimal allocation vector can be very different from the estimated one for large portfolios due to the intrinsic difficulty of estimating a vast covariance matrix and return vector. This can res…
We present a machine learning based method for noise classification using a low-power and inexpensive IoT unit. We use Mel-frequency cepstral coefficients for audio feature extraction and supervised classification algorithms (that is, support vector machine and k-nearest neighbors) for noise classification. We evaluate…
New conditions for ACD model consistency and normality.
AI predicts stock winners with 2.43 Sharpe ratio, but returns are highly concentrated.
Forecasting US stock market indices during COVID-19 using machine learning models.
Pseudo-Anosov subgroups in surface bundles over tori are convex cocompact.
The application of deep recurrent networks to audio transcription has led to impressive gains in automatic speech recognition (ASR) systems. Many have demonstrated that small adversarial perturbations can fool deep neural networks into incorrectly predicting a specified target with high confidence. Current work on fool…
Anomaly detection is challenging, especially for large datasets in high dimensions. Here we explore a general anomaly detection framework based on dimensionality reduction and unsupervised clustering. We release DRAMA, a general python package that implements the general framework with a wide range of built-in options.…
In this article we study Weinstein structures endowed with a Lefschetz fibration in terms of the Legendrian front projection. First we provide a systematic recipe for translating from a Weinstein Lefschetz bifibration to a Legendrian handlebody. Then we present several applications of this technique to symplectic topol…
Investigates the relationship between US money supply and asset indices over 2001-2019.
Traditional activity recognition systems work on the basis of training, taking a fixed set of sensors into account. In this article, we focus on the question how pattern recognition can leverage new information sources without any, or with minimal user input. Thus, we present an approach for opportunistic activity reco…
We construct an explicit topological model (similar to the topological Springer fibers appearing in work of Khovanov and Russell) for every two-row Springer fiber associated with the even orthogonal group and prove that the respective topological model is homeomorphic to its corresponding Springer fiber. This confirms …
Tabular data analysis shows GBDTs and NNs perform similarly on most datasets.
In a very high-dimensional vector space, two randomly-chosen vectors are almost orthogonal with high probability. Starting from this observation, we develop a statistical factor model, the random factor model, in which factors are chosen at random based on the random projection method. Randomness of factors has the con…
Deep fundamental factor models are developed to automatically capture non-linearity and interaction effects in factor modeling. Uncertainty quantification provides interpretability with interval estimation, ranking of factor importances and estimation of interaction effects. With no hidden layers we recover a linear fa…
The paper provides conditions for amalgamation of certain subgroups and preserves convexity properties.
Study reveals a hidden cost in derivatives markets through option-implied discount factors.
Study of graphs interpolating curve and pants graphs, providing formulae and geometry classifications.
Stable subgroups identified in genus two handlebody group.
GraphCNNpred predicts stock market indices using deep learning.
The paper optimizes portfolios with transaction costs in a large asset universe.
Feature extraction from financial data is one of the most important problems in market prediction domain for which many approaches have been suggested. Among other modern tools, convolutional neural networks (CNN) have recently been applied for automatic feature selection and market prediction. However, in experiments …
Paper extends Cohen's method to compute Jones polynomial for certain braid subfamilies.
New econometric results for financial duration models under varying tail behaviors.
The forecast of tropical cyclone trajectories is crucial for the protection of people and property. Although forecast dynamical models can provide high-precision short-term forecasts, they are computationally demanding, and current statistical forecasting models have much room for improvement given that the database of…
A common technique to improve learning performance in deep reinforcement learning (DRL) and many other machine learning algorithms is to run multiple learning agents in parallel. A neglected component in the development of these algorithms has been how best to arrange the learning agents involved to improve distributed…
Speaker embeddings are continuous-value vector representations that allow easy comparison between voices of speakers with simple geometric operations. Among others, i-vector and x-vector have emerged as the mainstream methods for speaker embedding. In this paper, we illustrate the use of modern computation platform to …
New turbulence index using TDA detects financial market transitions.
Stock prediction has always been attractive area for researchers and investors since the financial gains can be substantial. However, stock prediction can be a challenging task since stocks are influenced by a multitude of factors whose influence vary rapidly through time. This paper proposes a novel approach (Word2Vec…
Image classification with deep neural networks is typically restricted to images of small dimensionality such as 224 x 244 in Resnet models [24]. This limitation excludes the 4000 x 3000 dimensional images that are taken by modern smartphone cameras and smart devices. In this work, we aim to mitigate the prohibitive in…
Tracking large numbers of densely-arranged, interacting objects is challenging due to occlusions and the resulting complexity of possible trajectory combinations, as well as the sparsity of relevant, labeled datasets. Here we describe a novel technique of collective tracking in the model environment of a 2D honeybee hi…
In this paper, we seek a clinically-relevant latent code for representing the spectrum of macular disease. Towards this end, we construct retina-VAE, a variational autoencoder-based model that accepts a patient profile vector (pVec) as input. The pVec components include clinical exam findings and demographic informatio…
Paper models COVID-19 spread as spatio-temporal point processes.
Efficient and accurate low-rank approximations of multiple data sources are essential in the era of big data. The scaling of kernel-based learning algorithms to large datasets is limited by the O(n^2) computation and storage complexity of the full kernel matrix, which is required by most of the recent kernel learning a…
In this empirical paper, we investigate how learning agents can be arranged in more efficient communication topologies for improved learning. This is an important problem because a common technique to improve speed and robustness of learning in deep reinforcement learning and many other machine learning algorithms is t…
We present a deep long short-term memory (LSTM)-based neural network for predicting asset prices, together with a successful trading strategy for generating profits based on the model's predictions. Our work is motivated by the fact that the effectiveness of any prediction model is inherently coupled to the trading str…
In this work, we consider the problem of predicting the course of a progressive disease, such as cancer or Alzheimer's. Progressive diseases often start with mild symptoms that might precede a diagnosis, and each patient follows their own trajectory. Patient trajectories exhibit wild variability, which can be associate…
Machine learning (ML) methods have the potential to automate clinical EEG analysis. They can be categorized into feature-based (with handcrafted features), and end-to-end approaches (with learned features). Previous studies on EEG pathology decoding have typically analyzed a limited number of features, decoders, or bot…
SPT predicts age and mass of red giants from spectra.
Tests for Esophageal cancer can be expensive, uncomfortable and can have side effects. For many patients, we can predict non-existence of disease with 100% certainty, just using demographics, lifestyle, and medical history information. Our objective is to devise a general methodology for customizing tests using user pr…
DPLS improves asset pricing by capturing non-linear risk factor structures.
Gaia will obtain astrometry and spectrophotometry for essentially all sources in the sky down to a broad band magnitude limit of G=20, an expected yield of 10^9 stars. Its main scientific objective is to reveal the formation and evolution of our Galaxy through chemo-dynamical analysis. In addition to inferring position…