Rugby-Bot predicts multiple metrics from a single source using fine-grain data.
problem Complexity of sporting events requires multiple metrics for accurate analysis.
method Multi-task learning with fine-grain spatial data and wide-and-deep learning.
result Predictions are consistent and can be in distribution form.
The study uses unsupervised machine learning to identify top European football teams.
problem Selecting teams for the new European football Super League.
method Used Laplacian eigenmaps clustering on performance data.
result Successfully identified four clusters of teams based on performance metrics.
RL controls small soccer robots in a real league, beating human-designed policies.
problem Training robots to play complex, real-world sports.
method Sim-to-Real RL approach, training in simulated environment, applying to real-world robots.
result Robots learned policies to compete effectively, beating human-designed strategies.
GPU speeds up Monte Carlo simulations for large time steps.
problem Slow convergence and inaccurate solutions with large time steps in Monte Carlo simulations.
method Generalizes the Seven League scheme for GPU acceleration.
result Significantly improved computational speed.
Paper presents Transfer Portal model for accurate player performance predictions.
problem Predicting future player performance after a transfer.
method Personalized neural network and Bayesian updating framework.
result Model generates accurate predictions for player performance at new clubs.
This paper optimizes sports betting strategies using neural networks and portfolio theory.
problem Optimizing betting strategies in sports gambling.
method Combining neural network models with portfolio optimization, integrating Von Neumann-Morgenstern Expected Utility Theory and the Kelly Criterion.
result Achieved 135.8% relative profit during the English Premier League season.
Paper proposes a method to predict MOBA game winners with calibrated confidence.
problem Predicting MOBA game winners with noisy data and uncertain noise.
method A novel confidence-calibration method considering data uncertainty.
result Achieves outstanding expected calibration error (ECE) of 0.57%.
Improved fantasy football performance predictor using human feedback.
problem Lack of external factors in traditional statistical models.
method Combining statistical data with human feedback from various sources.
result Model outperformed regular statistical predictors by over 300 points.
The availability of massive data about sports activities offers nowadays the opportunity to quantify the relation between performance and success. In this study, we analyze more than 6,000 games and 10 million events in six European leagues and investigate this relation in soccer competitions. We discover that a team's…
Twitter has been proven to be a notable source for predictive modelling on various domains such as the stock market, the dissemination of diseases or sports outcomes. However, such a study has not been conducted in football (soccer) so far. The purpose of this research was to study whether data mined from Twitter can b…
New method extracts joint and individual signals from multi-view data.
problem Extract joint and individual signals from multi-view data.
method Double-matched matrix decomposition with optimization and iterative algorithm.
result Superior signal estimation performance compared to single-matching methods.
We propose the nuclear norm penalty as an alternative to the ridge penalty for regularized multinomial regression. This convex relaxation of reduced-rank multinomial regression has the advantage of leveraging underlying structure among the response categories to make better predictions. We apply our method, nuclear pen…
Deep learning predicts baseball home runs with better accuracy.
problem Predicting player performance in baseball.
method Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network.
result LSTM outperformed other models in predicting home runs.
In this technical report I present my method for automatic synthetic dataset generation for object detection and demonstrate it on the video game League of Legends. This report furthermore serves as a handbook on how to automatically generate datasets and as an introduction on the dataset generation part of the LeagueA…
The study predicts pass completion probability in NFL games.
problem Estimating the likelihood of NFL pass completion.
method Machine learning algorithm using distance measures and random forest model.
result Developed a method to predict pass completion probability.
We study the relationship between social media output and National Football League (NFL) games, using a dataset containing messages from Twitter and NFL game statistics. Specifically, we consider tweets pertaining to specific teams and games in the NFL season and use them alongside statistical game data to build predic…
We propose an original model for inferring team strengths using a Markov Random Field, which can be used to generate historical estimates of the offensive and defensive strengths of a team over time. This model was designed to be applied to sports such as soccer or hockey, in which contest outcomes take value in a limi…
Paper learns skill distributions from game outcomes, proving minimax optimality.
problem Learning skill distributions from noisy pairwise game outcomes.
method Proposes a simple algorithm using kernel density estimation and minimax techniques.
result Near-optimal minimax mean squared error scaling for skill density estimation.
Paper presents a method to efficiently learn ordered representations of multi-agent data.
problem Challenges in learning consistent representations of multi-agent interactions.
method Dynamic alignment method to order multi-agent data for faster representation learning.
result Representation learning of multi-agent data is significantly accelerated.
Researchers predict NBA player salaries using machine learning, avoiding overfitting.
problem Predicting NBA player salaries based on performance statistics.
method Selected important determinants, used Random Forest machine learning, avoided overfitting.
result Very satisfactory salary predictions identified for important factors.
A variety of machine learning models have been proposed to assess the performance of players in professional sports. However, they have only a limited ability to model how player performance depends on the game context. This paper proposes a new approach to capturing game context: we apply Deep Reinforcement Learning (…
Framework handles both exchangeable and non-exchangeable event sequences without tuning.
problem Handling both exchangeable and non-exchangeable event sequences efficiently.
method Parametric Hawkes-process-inspired conditional probability mass function with variational inference.
result Competitive computational and predictive performance against state-of-the-art methods.
New method samples from time-integrated stochastic bridges using neural networks.
problem Sampling from time-integrated stochastic bridges with high accuracy and speed.
method Polynomial chaos expansion and artificial neural networks.
result Robust, data-driven Monte Carlo sampling with thousands of samples in milliseconds.
New method for pricing discrete Asian and Lookback options under Heston model.
problem Efficient pricing of discrete Asian and Lookback options under Heston model.
method Data-driven approach using artificial neural networks and stochastic collocation points.
result High accuracy and significant computational time reduction compared to classical methods.
Predicts next actions in soccer possessions using path signatures.
problem Predicting next actions in soccer possessions with high accuracy.
method Leveraging path signatures to encode spatio-temporal structure of recent possessions, avoiding manual feature engineering.
result Our approach outperforms transformer-based benchmarks across various loss metrics and reduces computational cost.
In-game win probability models, which provide a sports team's likelihood of winning at each point in a game based on historical observations, are becoming increasingly popular. In baseball, basketball and American football, they have become important tools to enhance fan experience, to evaluate in-game decision-making,…
Deep learning accelerates Monte Carlo SDE simulations with large time steps.
problem Accurate simulation of SDEs with large time steps.
method Polynomial chaos expansion with neural network learned stochastic collocation points.
result Data-driven scheme achieves strong convergence in Monte Carlo simulations.
New method learns time-varying home field advantage in football.
problem Discovering causal factors behind home field advantage in sports.
method DYNAMO: a novel causal discovery method for non-stationary processes.
result Time-varying home field advantages influenced by referee bias.
This work presents a novel modeling and analysis framework for graph sequences which addresses the challenge of detecting and contextualizing anomalies in labelled, streaming graph data. We introduce a generalization of the BTER model of Seshadhri et al. by adding flexibility to community structure, and use this model …
AI benchmarks evaluate football team performance using generative models.
problem Evaluating human performance in complex interactive tasks is error-prone and unreliable.
method Trained Conditional VRNN Model on player and ball tracking data to imitate and predict team interactions.
result Trained model as a useful benchmark for evaluating team performance in football.
Prediction and modelling of competitive sports outcomes has received much recent attention, especially from the Bayesian statistics and machine learning communities. In the real world setting of outcome prediction, the seminal Élő update still remains, after more than 50 years, a valuable baseline which is difficult to…
Study uses complex networks and machine learning to predict soccer match outcomes.
problem Predicting soccer match outcomes with complex networks and machine learning.
method Complex network metrics and match statistics were used to build machine learning models.
result Models based on passing networks were as effective as traditional models using match statistics.