BAWS adapts window size for financial risk forecasting.
problem Adaptive selection of look-back window for financial risk modeling.
method Data-driven online learning method using bootstrap-based adaptive window selection (BAWS).
result BAWS improves risk forecasting, especially in data with structural changes.
Pairs trading strategy improved using Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process.
problem Improving pairs trading strategy effectiveness.
method Used Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process to model stock price spreads.
result OU model captures signals and trends effectively but underperforms compared to naive model.
Modeling cryptocurrency volatility and jumps with SVCJ model.
problem Understanding the dynamics and volatility of cryptocurrency markets.
method Stochastic volatility with correlated jumps (SVCJ) model with rolling-window parameter estimates.
result Cryptocurrency volatility stabilizes during bullish periods and increases during bearish periods.
Study on liquidity dynamics in Uniswap v3 pools using statistical methods.
problem Characterize liquidity in Uniswap v3 pools.
method Functional principal component analysis (FPCA) and dynamic factor methods.
result Liquidity dynamics in Uniswap v3 pools are well-captured by a low-order Legendre polynomial basis.
We study the dynamics of the linear and non-linear serial dependencies in financial time series in a rolling window framework. In particular, we focus on the detection of episodes of statistically significant two- and three-point correlations in the returns of several leading currency exchange rates that could offer so…
This paper investigates bias in resampled backtests for financial portfolios, finding it often negligible.
problem Bias in resampled backtests for financial portfolio evaluation.
method Investigation of bias in rolling-window mean-variance portfolios using resampling techniques.
result The bias in Sharpe Ratio estimates from IID resampling is often a fraction of estimation noise, making it tolerable.
This paper explores using graph neural networks for stock market predictions, improving accuracy with richer data.
problem Limited accuracy in financial market predictions using traditional methods.
method Combines graph neural networks with company knowledge graphs for better prediction.
result Significant improvement in prediction accuracy compared to benchmarks.
This paper evaluates different methods to estimate S&P 500 volatility.
problem Accurately estimating the volatility of the S&P 500 index.
method Historical volatility, GARCH model, and implied volatility methods were compared.
result Implied volatility is the best estimator of real volatility.
Model predicts volatility and dependencies in EUA and energy prices.
problem Analyzing uncertainty and dependencies in European carbon and energy prices.
method Probabilistic multivariate conditional time series model with VECM-Copula-GARCH structure.
result Forecasting performance evaluated in an extensive rolling-window study.
Rolling Diffusion improves video prediction by progressively corrupting frames based on their temporal position.
problem Improving video prediction accuracy by accounting for temporal dynamics.
method A sliding window denoising process that assigns more noise to frames that appear later in a sequence.
result Rolling Diffusion outperforms standard diffusion models in tasks with complex temporal dynamics.
New method improves stock return prediction in non-stationary markets.
problem Tackles the challenge of predicting stock returns in non-stationary environments.
method Jointly optimizes model class and training window size using a tournament procedure.
result Consistently outperforms standard benchmarks by 14-23% in out-of-sample R2. Paper proposes deep learning model for dynamic stock repurchase forecasting.
problem Complex temporal dependencies in corporate financial conditions.
method Hybrid Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN) and Attention-based LSTM.
result Model significantly outperforms static baselines in stock repurchase forecasting.
Study reveals investor heterogeneity in Korean equity market cash flows.
problem Investor heterogeneity and its impact on market dynamics.
method Detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) on aggregated cash flows.
result Persistence in cash flows varies by investor type, with retail flows showing strong persistence.
Study compares GARCH, EWMA, and IV models for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP currency pairs.
problem Predicting 20-day variation in GBP/USD and EUR/GBP currency pairs.
method Applied GARCH, EWMA, and IV models to GBP/USD and EUR/GBP pairs data.
result GARCH models outperform other models in predicting volatility for EUR/GBP, while GARCH with rolling window for GBP/USD.
ERDM integrates rolling forecasts with diffusion models for complex dynamics.
problem Forecasting complex dynamics with rolling forecasts and diffusion models.
method Adapting EDM components for rolling forecasts, introducing novel loss weighting, efficient initialization, and hybrid architecture.
result ERDM outperforms diffusion-based baselines in 2D Navier-Stokes simulations and ERA5 weather forecasting.
New Bayesian method for estimating portfolio VaR and CVaR that adapts to volatility changes.
problem Estimating VaR and CVaR of portfolios in volatile markets.
method Volatility-sensitive Bayesian estimation using conjugate priors and rolling window sizes.
result The new method provides better risk estimation, especially during turbulent periods.
HAR model outperforms ML in stock forecasting with correct fitting schemes.
problem Realized volatility forecasting using machine learning techniques.
method Investigated the role of fitting schemes in HAR model performance, focusing on training window and re-estimation frequency.
result HAR model consistently outperforms ML models when using a correctly specified fitting approach.
New ARIMA framework improves forecast accuracy for economic and financial time series.
problem Improving forecast accuracy for nonlinear dynamics in time series data.
method Projection-based ARIMA framework using Galerkin basis expansions.
result Galerkin-SARIMA matches or improves forecast accuracy compared to classical ARIMA/SARIMA.
XGBoost predicts NEPSE Index log returns with low error and high directional accuracy.
problem Forecasting daily log-returns in the NEPSE Index with high accuracy.
method XGBoost machine learning, feature engineering, hyperparameter optimization, walk-forward validation.
result Optimal XGBoost configuration achieves lowest log-return RMSE and MAE.
Enhanced GARCH model uses autoencoder for volatility forecasting.
problem Selecting optimal realised volatility estimator for forecasting.
method Proposes an autoencoder-enhanced Realised GARCH model combining multiple realised measures.
result The model outperforms traditional linear methods in one-step-ahead rolling volatility forecasting.
We study stock market instability by using cross-correlations constructed from the return time series of 366 stocks traded on the Tokyo Stock Exchange from January 5, 1998 to December 30, 2013. To investigate the dynamical evolution of the cross-correlations, cross-correlation matrices are calculated with a rolling win…
This paper optimizes portfolios using TDA and financial news sentiment.
problem Effective portfolio diversification through understanding asset similarity.
method Integrates TDA with FinBERT sentiment scores for dynamic rebalancing.
result Outperforms traditional methods in returns and risk-adjusted performance.
The study forecasts hourly intraday electricity prices using ensemble methods.
problem Weak-form efficiency of hourly German Intraday Continuous Market prices.
method Probabilistic forecasting with ensemble trajectories, generalized additive model, and lasso penalty.
result The mixture model outperforms benchmarks in forecasting price distribution and volatility.
Paper proposes SPO paradigm for better portfolio optimization in real markets.
problem Real-world trading frictions and constraints affect portfolio optimization quality.
method SPO paradigm with decision-focused training using surrogate loss and linear predictors.
result Decision-focused training improves risk-adjusted performance and robustness.
Recurrent auto-encoder model summarises sequential data through an encoder structure into a fixed-length vector and then reconstructs the original sequence through the decoder structure. The summarised vector can be used to represent time series features. In this paper, we propose relaxing the dimensionality of the dec…
Paper tests for time-varying entropy in stock prices, finding periods of inefficiency.
problem Testing for time-varying entropy in stock price dynamics.
method Unbiased approximation of Shannon entropy variance, optimal rolling window selection, hypothesis testing.
result Existence of periods of market inefficiency for meme stocks.
In this paper we bring to bear some new tools from statistical learning on the analysis of roll call data. We present a new data-driven model for roll call voting that is geometric in nature. We construct the model by adapting the "Partition Decoupling Method," an unsupervised learning technique originally developed fo…
Chronos models improve financial forecasting by integrating multivariate data.
problem Improving financial forecasting accuracy using multivariate data.
method Evaluation of Chronos-2 on multivariate and univariate financial forecasting models.
result Multivariate forecasts consistently outperform univariate forecasts, especially for interest rates.
Study uses topological signatures to quantify financial market complexity.
problem Capturing temporal organization beyond volatility measures.
method Null validated topological approach using L1 norm of persistence landscapes. result Persistence landscape norms reveal dynamical structure during market stress.
A novel algorithm predicts customized allergy seasons using multi-variate triple-regression.
problem Predicting customized allergy seasons for individual patients.
method Triple-regression algorithm with pre-processing and three-stage regressions.
result Improved forecasting accuracy and reduced uncertainty.
Deep learning models price convertible bonds with complex reset and call features.
problem Pricing convertible bonds with path-dependent reset and call provisions.
method Formulated as a PPDE, deep learning approximates conditional expectations.
result Deep learning produces stable and accurate prices across various model specifications.
Simple GBRT model improved by window-based input transformation outperforms state-of-the-art deep learning models.
problem Improving performance of traditional forecasting models for time series data.
method Transformed GBRT model input structure to include target values and external features, forming one input instance per training window.
result Simple GBRT model with window-based input transformation outperformed state-of-the-art deep learning models on nine datasets.
Energy price forecasting is a relevant yet hard task in the field of multi-step time series forecasting. In this paper we compare a well-known and established method, ARMA with exogenous variables with a relatively new technique Gradient Boosting Regression. The method was tested on data from Global Energy Forecasting …
Nowadays, online learning is an appealing learning paradigm, which is of great interest in practice due to the recent emergence of large scale applications such as online advertising placement and online web ranking. Standard online learning assumes a finite number of samples while in practice data is streamed infinite…
Differentiable Window improves attention modules by enabling more focused attentions.
problem Improving attention mechanisms in neural networks.
method Proposes Differentiable Window, a neural module for dynamic window selection.
result Consistent and sizable improvements across various NLP tasks.
We quantify the amount of information filtered by different hierarchical clustering methods on correlations between stock returns comparing it with the underlying industrial activity structure. Specifically, we apply, for the first time to financial data, a novel hierarchical clustering approach, the Directed Bubble Hi…
Paper forecasts stock correlations using a hybrid model combining graph neural networks and transformers.
problem Improving stock correlation forecasts for better portfolio management.
method Hybrid model combining Transformer and graph attention networks for forecasting residual deviations from historical data.
result The hybrid model reduces correlation forecasting error compared to rolling-window estimates.
The Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) provides a tool to characterize time series in terms of its implicit components oscillating at different time-scales. We apply this decomposition to intraday time series of the following three financial indices: the S\&P 500 (USA), the IPC (Mexico) and the VIX (volatility index US…
Paper analyzes cyber risk classifications for forecasting performance.
problem Lack of effective out-of-sample forecasting performance in current cyber risk classifications.
method Rolling window analysis using threshold weighted scoring functions.
result Dynamic and impact-based cyber risk classifiers outperform others in forecasting future cyber risk losses.
Adaptive learning model forecasts financial prices using order book data.
problem Forecasting high-frequency financial time series with non-stationary data.
method Adaptive learning model based on order book data, with stationarity and non-stationarity considerations.
result The model outperforms top fixed models and improves forecasting accuracy.
Fast, global, and sensitively reacting to political, economic and social events of any kind, these are attributes that social media like Twitter share with foreign exchange markets. The leading assumption of this paper is that information which can be distilled from public debates on Twitter has predictive content for …
This study analyzes cryptocurrency market dynamics using a novel q-dependent detrended cross-correlation method.
problem Capturing correlations at varying fluctuation amplitudes and time scales in complex systems.
method Extends traditional metrics with q-dependent detrended cross-correlation coefficient ρ(q,s) and qMSTs. result Significant shifts in network structures during major disruptions, leading to decentralized correlations.
AutoQuant addresses cryptocurrency backtesting fragility by modeling execution costs and improving strategy selection.
problem Fragile backtests of cryptocurrency perpetual futures ignoring microstructure frictions and execution costs.
method Execution-centric framework with Bayesian optimization, double screening, and strict T+1 semantics.
result Fee-only and zero-cost backtests overestimate returns, highlighting the importance of modeling execution costs.
Explains rolling of symmetric spaces on flat spaces.
problem Clarifying the difference between two types of rolling.
method Detailed explanation and illustrative examples.
result Theoretical results complemented with examples.
TCP provides well-calibrated prediction intervals for nonstationary time series.
problem Nonstationary time series forecasting with well-calibrated prediction intervals.
method Temporal Conformal Prediction (TCP) couples a modern quantile forecaster with a rolling split-conformal calibration layer.
result TCP achieves near-nominal coverage, providing slightly wider intervals than Historical Simulation.
This paper examines autocorrelation in major crypto markets, finding persistent correlations on short time frames.
problem Assessing the efficiency of major cryptocurrency markets through autocorrelation analysis.
method Pearson's autocorrelation coefficient, Ljung-Box test, rolling window analysis.
result Persistent autocorrelation on 5m and 1H time frames, disagreement on 1D and 1W time frames.
Study on rolling Stiefel manifolds with specific metrics.
problem Intrinsic and extrinsic rolling of Stiefel manifolds with α-metrics. method Investigation of intrinsic rolling of normal naturally reductive homogeneous spaces, derivation of ODEs for rolling, and explicit solutions.
result Explicit solutions for intrinsic and extrinsic rolling of Stiefel manifolds.
We report on time-varying network connectedness within three banking systems: North America, the EU, and ASEAN. The original method by Diebold and Yilmaz is improved by using exponentially weighted daily returns and ridge regularization on vector autoregression (VAR) and forecast error variance decomposition (FEVD). We…