Paper introduces OCRR Score for quantifying DeFi wallet credit risk.
problem Inability to assess credit risk in decentralized finance.
method Probabilistic measure based on historical and predictive on-chain activity.
result Dynamic adjustment of LTV and LT based on wallet risk profile.
Paper develops fine-grain spatiotemporal risk scores using high-resolution mobility data.
problem Developing reliable spatiotemporal risk scores for safe economic reopening.
method Hawkes process-based technique leveraging high-resolution cell-phone location signals.
result Fine-grain spatiotemporal risk scores based on high-resolution mobility data provide useful insights for safe re-opening.
The paper assesses fairness in risk score models, focusing on epistemic value.
problem Fairness of risk score models in communicating uncertainty.
method Identified key fairness desiderata, developed metrics for quantitative assessment, and applied methodology in two case studies.
result Introduced a novel calibration error metric for meaningful comparisons between groups of different sizes.
Holdout set improves risk score accuracy without biasing predictions.
problem Updating risk scores can lead to biased estimates when directly applied.
method Use a holdout set of non-intervention population to update risk scores.
result Optimal holdout size reduces adverse outcomes to optimal level.
Risk scores are simple classification models that let users make quick risk predictions by adding and subtracting a few small numbers. These models are widely used in medicine and criminal justice, but are difficult to learn from data because they need to be calibrated, sparse, use small integer coefficients, and obey …
Study finds stocks with higher cyber risk scores outperform others, indicating a market-wide cyber risk premium.
problem Identifying and quantifying firms' cyber risks and their impact on stock performance.
method Machine learning algorithm to analyze disclosures and a dedicated cyber corpus.
result High cyber risk stocks significantly outperform others, indicating a market-wide cyber risk premium.
Constructs new elicitable risk measures with multiplicative scoring functions.
problem Defining new elicitable risk measures with specific properties.
method Constructs new elicitable risk measures using a multiplicative scoring function.
result Encompasses and allows construction of novel elicitable risk measures.
Paper develops machine learning algorithms to learn optimal integer weights for clinical risk scores.
problem Deriving optimal integer weights for clinical risk scores without computational burden.
method Flexible greedy optimization strategy to directly optimize a value function.
result Constructed an integer-weighted comorbidity score for measuring post-discharge mortality risk.
The paper analyzes elicitability of return risk measures and their scoring functions.
problem Elicitability of return risk measures and their scoring functions.
method Dual representation results for convex and geometrically convex return risk measures, axiomatic characterizations of Orlicz premia, and construction of strictly consistent scoring functions.
result Orlicz premia are the only elicitable return risk measures under different sets of conditions.
Copula-based fusion improves breast cancer risk stratification.
problem Combining clinical and genomic risk scores using simple rules fails to capture their joint relationship.
method Used copulas to model the joint relationship between clinical and genomic risk scores.
result Copula-based fusion improves risk stratification, identifying subgroups with the worst prognosis.
Develops a risk score to assist ECMO planning for critically ill patients with viral or unspecified pneumonia.
problem Lack of a risk score to guide ECMO planning for critically ill patients.
method Leverages machine learning to develop the PEER score.
result PEER score predicts mortality and decompensation in patients eligible for ECMO.
Optimal score function estimation via empirical risk minimization
problem Estimating the score function of a probability measure on the flat torus from a sample
method Constraining the hypothesis space to a Sobolev ball
result Minimax estimation rates are achieved
Paper discusses extending Gini score for tied rankings and case weights.
problem Extending Gini score for tied rankings and case weights.
method Discuss and adapt Gini score for ties and case weights.
result Gini score can be used for tied rankings and case weights.
Where machine-learned predictive risk scores inform high-stakes decisions, such as bail and sentencing in criminal justice, fairness has been a serious concern. Recent work has characterized the disparate impact that such risk scores can have when used for a binary classification task. This may not account, however, fo…
A framework for sensitivity measures using scoring functions.
problem Constructing sensitivity measures for any elicitable functional.
method Score-based sensitivities constructed via consistent scoring functions.
result Demonstrated intuitive and desirable properties of score-based sensitivities.
This paper examines how ESG scores can indicate riskiness.
problem Determining if ESG scores can convey information on a company's riskiness.
method High-dimensional vine copula modeling to analyze (tail) dependence structure of companies with various ESG scores.
result ESG scores can be associated with (tail) riskiness, especially during crises.
Paper develops a risk scoring framework for tokenized RWA markets.
problem Tokenized assets may not reflect true risk due to illiquidity and concentration.
method Develops a risk scoring framework based on observable indicators.
result Assets with limited transfer activity and concentrated ownership have high empirical risk.
Standardized fairness measures for continuous risk scores using Wasserstein distance.
problem Quantifying and interpreting group disparities in continuous risk scores.
method Proposes standardized fairness measures based on Wasserstein distance for continuous scores.
result Proposed measures outperform ROC-based fairness measures by being more explicit and quantifying significant biases.
Two new methods score stress test scenarios for risk managers.
problem Comparing and evaluating stress test scenarios for risk managers.
method Inspired by Archer-Mouy-Selmi, two methodologies for scoring stress test scenarios.
result New methods can compare and evaluate stress test scenarios.
A new RL framework for risk-sensitive decision-making using convex scoring functions.
problem Time-inconsistent risk measures in reinforcement learning.
method Convex scoring functions, augmented state space, auxiliary variable, customized Actor-Critic algorithm.
result Theoretical guarantees for approximation and convergence under certain conditions.
New ESGM scores include a 'Missing' pillar to account for unpublished ESG data.
problem Unpublished ESG data affects the reliability of ESG scores.
method Formulated a new 'Missing' pillar and introduced ESGM scores.
result ESGM scores improve risk assessment and avoid exclusion of assets.
We develop a personalized real time risk scoring algorithm that provides timely and granular assessments for the clinical acuity of ward patients based on their (temporal) lab tests and vital signs. Heterogeneity of the patients population is captured via a hierarchical latent class model. The proposed algorithm aims t…
Optimizes risk assessment tools using mixed-integer programming.
problem Challenges in healthcare risk assessment due to label scarcity and asymmetric misclassification costs.
method Jointly optimizes scoring weights and category thresholds via mixed-integer programming (MIP).
result Prevents label-scarce category collapse and achieves more accurate risk categorization.
SCoRE provides risk control for selective prediction models.
problem Enforcing strict error control in selective prediction models.
method SCoRE framework based on conformal inference and hypothesis testing.
result SCoRE offers binary trust decisions with finite-sample error control.
The NL score optimizes speaker recognition tasks.
problem Improving speaker recognition accuracy.
method Established the theory of optimal scores based on normalized likelihood.
result NL score is equivalent to PLDA likelihood ratio under certain conditions.
Identification and scoring functions are statistical tools to assess the calibration and the relative performance of risk measure estimates, e.g., in backtesting. A risk measures is called identifiable (elicitable) it it admits a strict identification function (strictly consistent scoring function). We consider measure…
Improved sample complexity for diffusion models without needing empirical risk minimizers.
problem Theoretical limitations in sample complexity for diffusion models.
method Structured decomposition of score estimation error, eliminating dependence on neural network parameters.
result Achieved sample complexity bound of O(ε^(-4)) without empirical risk minimizer access.
New method improves privacy risk evaluation of machine learning models.
problem Machine learning models can be vulnerable to membership inference attacks.
method Proposed new inference attack method based on prediction entropy, and introduced privacy risk score metric.
result Existing defense approaches are not as effective as previously reported.
Score attack method provides a lower bound on privacy-constrained minimax risk.
problem Characterizing the optimality of privacy-constrained statistical models.
method Score attack based on tracing attack concept.
result Optimally lower bounds the minimax risk of estimating unknown model parameters.
Locus scores predictions for risk, reducing large-loss events.
problem Deployment cost from inaccurate predictions, especially large losses.
method Distribution-free loss-scale reliability score using any predictive distribution.
result Reduces large-loss frequency compared to standard heuristics.
Predictions are issued on the basis of certain information. If the forecasting mechanisms are correctly specified, a larger amount of available information should lead to better forecasts. For point forecasts, we show how the effect of increasing the information set can be quantified by using strictly consistent scorin…
Paper establishes identifiability and elicitability of tail risk measures.
problem Identifying and measuring tail risk measures accurately.
method Establishes identifiability and elicitability of tail risk measures using generators and quantiles.
result Joint identifiability and elicitability of tail risk measures and quantiles.
Establishes a link between risk measures and uniform integrability in finance.
problem Understanding uniform integrability in the context of financial risk measures.
method Introduces the folding score of distortion risk measures to study uniform integrability directly with gains and losses.
result Obtains three sets of equivalent conditions for uniform integrability involving coherent risk measures.
Study minimax risk of score estimation for log-concave distributions.
problem Minimizing risk in score estimation for log-concave distributions.
method Developed subclasses of log-concave densities and constructed a locally adaptive, multiscale estimator.
result Established minimax rates for score estimation over specific subclasses of log-concave densities.
New optimal transport divergences derived from scoring functions.
problem Developing new divergences for optimal transport.
method Using scoring functions as cost functions in optimal transport.
result Comonotonic coupling is optimal for many new divergences.
A new model forecasts Value-at-Risk using NIG distribution and dynamic scores.
problem Forecasting Value-at-Risk (VaR) in financial markets.
method Proposes a parametric forecasting model based on the normal inverse Gaussian distribution (NIG) incorporating intraday information.
result The model outperforms traditional GARCH models, especially in high-risk scenarios.
CCI combines Bayesian and gradient boosting to create fair, reliable credit risk scores.
problem Tackles high-stakes lending decisions with changing data distributions and fairness constraints.
method Combines Bayesian neural risk scorer and fairness-constrained gradient boosting with shift-aware fusion.
result CCI achieves best trade-off between discrimination, calibration, stability, and fairness.
A new framework assesses financial and ESG risks for sustainable investing.
problem Measuring risk and reward in sustainable investing considering environmental, social, and governance factors.
method Proposes axiomatic definitions for ESG-coherent risk measures and reward-risk ratios based on bivariate random variables.
result Empirical analysis ranks stocks using the proposed measures.
We introduce Supersparse Linear Integer Models (SLIM) as a tool to create scoring systems for binary classification. We derive theoretical bounds on the true risk of SLIM scoring systems, and present experimental results to show that SLIM scoring systems are accurate, sparse, and interpretable classification models.
Optimal cutoff interval for risk scores improves binary classification accuracy.
problem Improving binary classification accuracy with abstention.
method Determines optimal cutoff interval for risk scores, refraining from decisions outside this interval.
result Minimizes classification margin and maximizes accuracy within the interval.
FairPOT balances fairness and AUC performance by selectively transforming risk scores.
problem Balancing fairness and AUC performance in high-stakes domains.
method FairPOT uses proportional optimal transport to selectively transform risk scores.
result FairPOT consistently improves fairness with minimal AUC degradation or even positive gains.
Paper compares ML methods for credit scoring, highlighting feature selection and scaling impacts.
problem Determining default risk in credit scoring models.
method Eight ML methods (SVM, Naive Bayes, DT, RF, XGBoost, KNN, MLP, LR) with feature selection and scaling.
result Feature selection and scaling improve model performance in credit scoring.
Framework scores DeFi users based on liquidity and trading behavior.
problem Distinguishing between liquidity provision and active trading in DeFi.
method Rule-based decomposition, deep residual neural network, pool-level context.
result Deep residual neural network improves user scoring and risk assessment.
Although timely sepsis diagnosis and prompt interventions in Intensive Care Unit (ICU) patients are associated with reduced mortality, early clinical recognition is frequently impeded by non-specific signs of infection and failure to detect signs of sepsis-induced organ dysfunction in a constellation of dynamically cha…
The paper introduces ESE scores for farmers to assess climate change risks.
problem Assessing climate change risks in individual farmers' credit evaluations.
method Integrating ESG variables into joint liability models and using a mean-variance utility function.
result Optimal group sizes and individual-ESE score relationships under various climatic conditions.
Inherent risk scoring is an important function in anti-money laundering, used for determining the riskiness of an individual during onboarding before fraudulent transactions occur. It is, however, often fraught with two challenges: (1) inconsistent notions of what constitutes as high or low risk by experts a…
SurvivalBoost improves prediction of event times in competing risks scenarios.
problem Predicting event times in scenarios with multiple possible outcomes.
method Developed a strictly proper censoring-adjusted scoring rule for stochastic optimization of competing risks.
result SurvivalBoost outperforms 12 state-of-the-art models across various metrics.
Study quantifies firm risks from nature decline, showing significant equity losses.
problem Estimating the financial impact of nature deterioration on companies.
method Developed metrics (Country Degradation Index, Nature Risk Score) and assessed five environmental hazards.
result Global equities lose 26.8% in a nature decline scenario, with worst firms losing 75%.