Sharp bounds for distortion risk metrics under uncertain distributions.
problem Modeling risk metrics under distributional uncertainty.
method Established bounds for distortion risk metrics using specific features of underlying distributions.
result Identified worst- and best-case values of distortion risk metrics.
Derives metrics for DeFi vaults, addressing credit risk.
problem Credit risk in DeFi lending vaults.
method Three-level decomposition of vault risk; six structural features identified.
result Estimation architecture for credit risk metrics.
Proposes resilience metrics for large blackout costs with logarithmic resilience.
problem Large variations in blackout costs make estimating risk impractical.
method Uses mean of log of large blackout costs, tail slope index, and frequency.
result Solves problems of heavy tail and large variations in blackout costs.
Paper tackles AI risks by customizing metrics and models.
problem AI risks are multidimensional and immaturely managed.
method Decomposes AI risks into data protection, fairness, etc., and develops metrics and models.
result Customized metrics and models reduce AI risk uncertainty.
Paper extends ranking metrics theory for financial positions.
problem Developing a new class of functionals for evaluating financial positions.
method Axiomatic framework based on monotonicity and cash-quasiconcavity.
result Linking ranking metrics to families of acceptance sets and risk measures.
Paper extends ranking metrics theory for financial positions.
problem Developing a new class of performance evaluation methods.
method Axiomatic framework based on monotonicity and cash-quasiconcavity.
result Linking ranking metrics to families of acceptance sets and risk measures.
AlphaSharpe uses LLMs to improve financial metrics robustness and predictive power.
problem Traditional financial metrics struggle with robustness and generalization in volatile markets.
method Iterative optimization of financial metrics using LLMs, including crossover, mutation, and evaluation.
result AlphaSharpe discovers enhanced risk-return metrics with 3x predictive power and 2x portfolio performance.
Developed a new risk measure, CRI, for evaluating concentrated portfolios.
problem Current risk assessment methods fail to adequately evaluate concentrated portfolios.
method Modified Herfindahl-Hirschman index to create CRI.
result CRI provides a single numeric score for evaluating portfolio risks.
Paper proposes a natural hedging framework with graphical assessment for longevity risk management.
problem Lack of a unified framework for natural hedging and graphical risk assessment.
method Structured natural hedging framework integrated with a graphical risk metric.
result Demonstrates flexibility, interpretability, and practical value for longevity risk management.
Efficiently computes optimal policies for Entropic Risk Measures.
problem Optimizing risk-sensitive metrics in MDPs is computationally expensive.
method Uses Entropic Risk Measures and novel structural analysis for efficient computation.
result Achieves strong performance in various decision-making scenarios.
This paper focuses on the horse race of weekly idiosyncratic momentum (IMOM) with respect to various idiosyncratic risk metrics. Using the A-share individual stocks in the Chinese market from January 1997 to December 2017, we first evaluate the performance of the weekly momentum based on raw returns and idiosyncratic r…
New risk metric for AI systems reduces safety risks with minimal data.
problem Risk assessment in multi-agent AI systems.
method Free Energy Principle applied to risk metrics, introducing Cumulative Risk Exposure.
result Gatekeepers improve system safety in autonomous vehicle fleets.
Compound Finance optimizes risk metrics for V3 protocol using Chainrisk simulations.
problem Optimizing systemic risks in Compound V3 protocol.
method Millions of Chainrisk simulations to evaluate VaR and LaR, providing parameter adjustments.
result Optimization framework enhances protocol stability.
We introduce simple cost and risk proxy metrics that can be attached to Treasury issuance strategy to complement analysis of the resulting portfolio weighted-average maturity (WAM). These metrics are based on mapping issuance fractions to their long-term, asymptotic portfolio implications for cost and risk under mechan…
Paper proposes real-time risk metrics for stablecoin protocols.
problem Lack of risk management frameworks for stablecoins.
method Developed two risk metrics: capitalization and liquidity.
result Demonstrated practical benefits of real-time on-chain data.
The paper assesses fairness in risk score models, focusing on epistemic value.
problem Fairness of risk score models in communicating uncertainty.
method Identified key fairness desiderata, developed metrics for quantitative assessment, and applied methodology in two case studies.
result Introduced a novel calibration error metric for meaningful comparisons between groups of different sizes.
Quantum RNG improves financial risk metrics estimation.
problem Estimating financial risk metrics with high precision.
method Quantum-Enhanced Monte Carlo using QRNG.
result Improved accuracy in VaR and CVaR estimation.
MDS selects assets by combining daily returns and intraday risk curves, improving portfolio performance.
problem High estimation error in large-scale asset selection.
method Metric Dependence Screening (MDS) incorporating high frequency information as object valued data.
result MDS improves portfolio performance over benchmarks by preserving intraday risk dynamics.
A new framework assesses liquidity risk in perpetual futures exchanges.
problem Measuring and predicting liquidation execution risk in perpetual futures markets.
method Slippage-at-Risk (SaR) framework, comprising three metrics: cross-sectional slippage quantile, expected slippage, and aggregate dollar-denominated tail slippage.
result SaR provides a forward-looking assessment of liquidation execution risk, predictive of systemic stress.
The paper analyzes the generalization of deep neural networks for metric and similarity learning.
problem Lack of rigorous understanding of generalization performance in metric and similarity learning.
method Derive explicit form of true metric, construct structured deep ReLU neural network, establish excess risk bounds.
result Explicit excess risk bounds for metric and similarity learning are derived.
The purpose of this paper is to give a selective survey on recent progress in random metric theory and its applications to conditional risk measures. This paper includes eight sections. Section 1 is a longer introduction, which gives a brief introduction to random metric theory, risk measures and conditional risk measu…
Proposes a method to choose thresholds for LLM evaluation metrics.
problem Ensuring reliable large language models (LLMs) with correct threshold selection.
method Identify risks, stakeholders' risk tolerance, and use ground-truth data to determine thresholds.
result Demonstrates a concrete example with the Faithfulness metric and HaluBench dataset.
We develop a statistical framework to benchmark and select large language models based on their risks.
problem Benchmarking and selecting large language models based on their associated risks.
method A distributional framework using first and second order stochastic dominance, linked to mean-risk models in finance.
result Formalizes a risk-aware approach for model selection, balancing risk and utility.
Develops risk measures on Lipschitz spaces for financial positions.
problem Lack of standard cash-additive methods in Lipschitz spaces.
method Proposes Lipschitz-free space, uses additivity along benchmark-deviation instruments.
result Derives dual representations for convex and coherent risk measures.
Paper defines and quantifies safety risks in deep neural networks.
problem Safety concerns in deep neural networks applied to critical sectors.
method Defines safety property, computes maximum safe radius, identifies new risk class, develops algorithm.
result Method achieves competitive performance in safety quantification.
A new indicator measures project risk from activity durations.
problem Managing project risks throughout the lifecycle.
method Activity Risk Index (ARI) based on Schedule Risk Baseline.
result Identifies activities contributing most to project uncertainty.
Investigates model risk and semi-static hedging for martingale constrained models.
problem Model risk distributionally robust sensitivities for functionals on the Wasserstein space.
method Introduces distributionally robust problem with semi-static hedging strategies.
result Explicit characterizations of model risk optimal semi-static hedging strategies.
New metrics improve understanding of predictive system reliability.
problem Evaluating conditional coverage of predictive systems.
method Casting conditional coverage estimation as a classification problem, using excess risk of the target coverage (ERT) metrics.
result Modern classifiers provide higher statistical power for estimating conditional coverage.
New metrics quantify implementation risk in portfolio backtesting, revealing systematic differences in engine implementations.
problem Systematic divergence in backtested portfolio metrics due to differences in engine implementations.
method Formalized implementation risk, proposed four metrics, executed 15 strategies through five engines, analyzed source-code defects.
result Implementation risk introduces measurable ambiguity in performance attribution, but does not alter investment decisions.
Algorithmic risk assessments are increasingly used to help humans make decisions in high-stakes settings, such as medicine, criminal justice and education. In each of these cases, the purpose of the risk assessment tool is to inform actions, such as medical treatments or release conditions, often with the aim of reduci…
The paper analyzes worst-case distortion risk metrics and weighted entropy under partial information.
problem Analyzing worst-case distortion risk metrics and weighted entropy with limited information.
method General distributions, partial information (mean and variance), various entropies and risk measures.
result Provides worst-case results for distortion risk metrics and weighted entropy.
Investigates how extreme temperature events affect global equity portfolios.
problem Impact of extreme temperature events on global equity portfolios.
method Panel regression analysis and multi-objective portfolio optimization.
result Extreme temperature events negatively impact most sectors' returns.
Despite their numerous successes, there are many scenarios where adversarial risk metrics do not provide an appropriate measure of robustness. For example, test-time perturbations may occur in a probabilistic manner rather than being generated by an explicit adversary, while the poor train--test generalization of adver…
New f-Betas for portfolio optimization using f-divergence risk measures.
problem Optimizing portfolio performance under varying market conditions.
method Derive f-Betas and Hellinger-Betas, using f-divergence risk measures.
result Demonstrated new Beta metrics provide better performance under stress.
Defines computable learning for binary classification over metric spaces.
problem Defines computable PAC learning for binary classification over computable metric spaces.
method Provides sufficient conditions for ERM learners to be computable and bounds the strong Weihrauch degree of an ERM learner.
result Gives a hypothesis class that does not admit any proper computable PAC learner with computable sample function.
We present a framework and analysis of consistent binary classification for complex and non-decomposable performance metrics such as the F-measure and the Jaccard measure. The proposed framework is general, as it applies to both batch and online learning, and to both linear and non-linear models. Our work follows recen…
K-NN classifier is one of the most famous classification algorithms, whose performance is crucially dependent on the distance metric. When we consider the distance metric as a parameter of K-NN, learning an appropriate distance metric for K-NN can be seen as minimizing the empirical risk of K-NN. In this paper,…
This paper improves the robustness of risk estimation for financial positions.
problem Ensuring robustness of risk measures in the presence of data noise.
method Proposes a quantitative approach using the Fortet-Mourier metric to quantify the variation of true probability measures.
result Derives explicit error bounds for discrepancies between laws of estimators based on true and perturbed data.
Paper explores generalization of minimax learners, proposing a new metric.
problem Understanding how minimax learners perform on unseen data.
method Proposes a new metric, the primal gap, to study generalization of minimax learners.
result Derives generalization error bounds for the primal gap in nonconvex-concave settings.
An integrated and extendable approach for stress-testing loan portfolios
problem Stress-testing loan portfolios
method Simulate completed portfolios, generate uncertain cash flow history, compute credit risk metrics
result Enhanced stress-testing practices within any bank
Adaptive strategies reduce pension fund costs and risks.
problem Managing longevity and volatility risks in pension funds.
method Modular simulation framework with customizable metrics.
result Substantial reduction in pension plan costs and default risk.
New risk metric for RL in finance considers time splits of returns.
problem Optimizing financial decisions with a balance between return and risk.
method Developed a new risk metric for reinforcement learning that allows for flexible target levels of rewards over time.
result Proposed risk metric optimizes for arbitrary time splits of returns, improving upon classical risk measures.
Deep neural networks solve optimal risk sharing problems.
problem Optimally sharing financial positions among agents with different risk measures.
method Neural network-based framework to compute inf-convolution and optimal allocations.
result Convergence of neural network approximations to theoretical values.
Paper introduces lexical ratio to measure portfolio diversification.
problem Traditional diversification metrics overlook non-numerical relationships.
method Uses textual data to capture diversification dimensions through entropy-based insights.
result Lexical ratio (LR) outperforms traditional metrics in optimizing portfolio returns.
Where machine-learned predictive risk scores inform high-stakes decisions, such as bail and sentencing in criminal justice, fairness has been a serious concern. Recent work has characterized the disparate impact that such risk scores can have when used for a binary classification task. This may not account, however, fo…
This paper evaluates investment risks in LATAM AI startups using DCF method.
problem Unique challenges and risks faced by LATAM tech startups.
method Total Addressable Market (TAM), Serviceable Available Market (SAM), and Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM) metrics; Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method.
result Developed a ranking of emerging powers in Latin America for tech startup investment.
RATE metrics evaluate treatment prioritization rules, subsuming existing methods.
problem Comparing and testing the quality of treatment prioritization rules.
method Rank-weighted average treatment effect (RATE) metrics.
result RATE metrics enable asymptotically exact inference in various study settings.
The study evaluates forecast risk-adjusted performance using various metrics.
problem Evaluating forecast reliability beyond accuracy.
method Risk-adjusted performance measures (Sharpe, Sortino, Omega ratios) and Edge Ratio.
result Machine learning models often offer attractive risk profiles but not necessarily higher reliability.