A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
This study assesses risk concentration in MDB portfolios using Monte Carlo simulations.
Developed concentrated liquidity in n-dimensional AMM with polar coordinates in Rust.
In the present paper, the minimal investment risk for a portfolio optimization problem with imposed budget and investment concentration constraints is considered using replica analysis. Since the minimal investment risk is influenced by the investment concentration constraint (as well as the budget constraint), it is i…
Paper develops a risk scoring framework for tokenized RWA markets.
New axioms justify ES without NRC, linking it to mean-ES portfolio selection.
Deep learning method improves risk assessment for small loan portfolios.
The quantification of diversification benefits due to risk aggregation plays a prominent role in the (regulatory) capital management of large firms within the financial industry. However, the complexity of today's risk landscape makes a quantifiable reduction of risk concentration a challenging task. In the present pap…
Expanding on techniques of concentration of measure, we develop a quantitative framework for modeling liquidity risk using convex risk measures. The fundamental objects of study are curves of the form , where is a convex risk measure and a random variable, and we call such a curve a \emph{liqu…
Measurement and management of credit concentration risk is critical for banks and relevant for micro-prudential requirements. While several methods exist for measuring credit concentration risk within institutions, the systemic effect of different institutions' exposures to the same counterparties has been less explore…
Motivated by liquidity risk in mathematical finance, D. Lacker introduced concentration inequalities for risk measures, i.e. upper bounds on the \emph{liquidity risk profile} of a financial loss. We derive these inequalities in the case of time-consistent dynamic risk measures when the filtration is assumed to carry a …
The paper analyzes risk estimation methods and derives bounds for OCE risk.
In several real-world applications involving decision making under uncertainty, the traditional expected value objective may not be suitable, as it may be necessary to control losses in the case of a rare but extreme event. Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) is a popular risk measure for modeling the aforementioned objec…
This paper presents a unified approach based on Wasserstein distance to derive concentration bounds for empirical estimates for two broad classes of risk measures defined in the paper. The classes of risk measures introduced include as special cases well known risk measures from the finance literature such as condition…
By mid 2004, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) is epected to launch its final recommendations on minimum capital requirements in the banking industry. Although there is the intention to arrive at capital charges which concur with economic intuition, the risk weight formulas proposed by the committee wil…
Developed a new risk measure, CRI, for evaluating concentrated portfolios.
Risk-only investment strategies have been growing in popularity as traditional in- vestment strategies have fallen short of return targets over the last decade. However, risk-based investors should be aware of four things. First, theoretical considerations and empirical studies show that apparently dictinct risk-based …
Prove non-asymptotic bounds for minimal risk in statistical learning
The paper analyzes SMOTE for imbalanced classification, providing theoretical bounds and guidelines.
The paper extends Hoeffding's inequality for Markov chains using a generalized concentrability condition.
Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) is a widely used risk metric in applications such as finance. We derive concentration bounds for CVaR estimates, considering separately the cases of light-tailed and heavy-tailed distributions. In the light-tailed case, we use a classical CVaR estimator based on the empirical distributi…
This work explores the characteristics of financial contagion in networks whose links distributions approaches a power law, using a model that defines banks balance sheets from information of network connectivity. By varying the parameters for the creation of the network, several interbank networks are built, in which …
This study measures liquidity risks in Aave, a blockchain lending protocol.
We consider a priori generalization bounds developed in terms of cross-validation estimates and the stability of learners. In particular, we first derive an exponential Efron-Stein type tail inequality for the concentration of a general function of n independent random variables. Next, under some reasonable notion of s…
We consider the problem of estimating a spectral risk measure (SRM) from i.i.d. samples, and propose a novel method that is based on numerical integration. We show that our SRM estimate concentrates exponentially, when the underlying distribution has bounded support. Further, we also consider the case when the underlyi…
Unified framework for risk-aware policy learning in contextual bandits.
Paper introduces risk assessment for contextual bandits without experiments.
Survey on risk-aware multi-armed bandits for better decision-making.
Blockchain scaling reduces gas fees, allowing more frequent liquidity updates and concentration.
This work establishes always-valid risk bounds for online matrix completion.
This paper provides a PAC-Bayesian bound for CVaR in machine learning.
Develops new methods for risk-aware decision-making in medical bandits.
The problem of estimating a high-dimensional sparse vector from an observation in i.i.d. Gaussian noise is considered. The performance is measured using squared-error loss. An empirical Bayes shrinkage estimator, derived using a Bernoulli-Gaussian prior, is analyzed and compared with the…
New method estimates Schrödinger bridge potentials via empirical risk minimization.
Paper improves learning efficiency by focusing on effective dimensionality.
Logistic regression gets a new, simpler uniform bound.
Study the averaging estimator on graphs with labeled nodes.
One fundamental goal in any learning algorithm is to mitigate its risk for overfitting. Mathematically, this requires that the learning algorithm enjoys a small generalization risk, which is defined either in expectation or in probability. Both types of generalization are commonly used in the literature. For instance, …
We prove a new and general concentration inequality for the excess risk in least-squares regression with random design and heteroscedastic noise. No specific structure is required on the model, except the existence of a suitable function that controls the local suprema of the empirical process. So far, only the case of…
Paper optimizes liquidity provision in decentralized finance markets.
Improved analysis for extreme multi-class CRL with better sample complexity.
This paper analyzes ETFs with Taiwan exposure, finding heavy tails and asymmetric volatility.
In this paper, we revisit the portfolio optimization problems of the minimization/maximization of investment risk under constraints of budget and investment concentration (primal problem) and the maximization/minimization of investment concentration under constraints of budget and investment risk (dual problem) for the…
Study on insurance risk management and sustainable development.
New property ensures neural networks generalize well with limited data.
Dual risk models are popular for modeling a venture capital or high tech company, for which the running cost is deterministic and the profits arrive stochastically over time. Most of the existing literature on dual risk models concentrated on the optimal dividend strategies. In this paper, we propose to study the optim…
In this paper, as a first step in examining the properties of a feasible portfolio subset that is characterized by budget and risk constraints, we assess the maximum and minimum of the investment concentration using replica analysis. To do this, we apply an analytical approach of statistical mechanics. We note that the…
We study how network structure affects the dynamics of collateral in presence of rehypothecation. We build a simple model wherein banks interact via chains of repo contracts and use their proprietary collateral or re-use the collateral obtained by other banks via reverse repos. In this framework, we show that total col…
In the present work, the optimal portfolio minimizing the investment risk with cost is discussed analytically, where this objective function is constructed in terms of two negative aspects of investment, the risk and cost. We note the mathematical similarity between the Hamiltonian in the mean-variance model and the Ha…