The paper proposes a Risk Appetite Measure (A) for PFE, aligning with bank risk appetite and regulatory requirements.
problem Debate on how to calculate PFE, between historical and risk-neutral measures.
method Three methods for computing bank price of risk from business unit data.
result Risk Appetite Measure (A) uniquely consistent with bank Risk Appetite Framework.
Paper proposes a method to allocate Solvency II Capital Requirement considering diversification.
problem Computing Solvency II Capital Requirement for diversified risks.
method Based on the Euler principle, with coherence and RORAC compatibility.
result Shows practical implications and a measure of risk appetite.
Modeling financial chaos with market makers' risk appetite.
problem Unpredictable price changes in financial markets.
method Using Hamiltonian approach with anharmonic oscillators and nonlinear coupling.
result Market makers' risk appetite determines chaotic dynamics in financial markets.
Value adjustment of uncollateralized trades is determined within a risk-neutral pricing framework. When hedging such trades, investors cannot freely trade protection on their own name, thus facing an incomplete market. This fact is reflected in the non-uniqueness of the pricing measure, which is only constrained by the…
New machine learning model identifies key drivers of market troughs.
problem Misrepresentation of market trough drivers by simpler models.
method Flexible DML average partial effect causal machine learning framework.
result Volatility of options-implied risk appetite and market liquidity are key drivers.
The study calculates securities lending haircuts and indemnification costs.
problem Managing borrower default risk in securities markets.
method Repo haircut model applied to securities lending transactions; quantifies haircuts and indemnification costs.
result Computed borrower-dependent haircuts and indemnification costs for US Treasuries and equities.
Blockchain funds balance risk and return for various investors.
problem Creating diversified portfolios with risk parity for different risk appetites.
method Developed three funds (Alpha, Beta, Gamma) with distinct risk and return profiles, setting weights inversely proportional to risk.
result Blockchain enables investors to select their preferred risk-return combination and allocate wealth accordingly.
This paper analyzes liquidations in DeFi protocols, showing how price volatility can lead to significant losses.
problem Price volatility undermines overcollateralization in DeFi protocols, leading to potential losses.
method Empirical analysis of Compound's PLFs, examining participants' behavior and risk-appetite.
result Price volatility can result in over 10m USD becoming liquidable with only 3% price change.
Optimizes insurance profits under regulatory constraints.
problem Maximizing profits while adhering to regulatory and risk policies.
method Developed a formalism for in-force business profit optimisation.
result Identified optimal asset allocation and annual opportunity cost.
Develops a framework for analyzing multi-agent and many-body systems with feedback loops.
problem Optimal order of multi-agent and general many-body systems
method Derive macroscopic properties and optimal degree of order
result Optimal degree of order balances productivity, stability, and adaptability
Investigates optimal strategies for market makers using internal liquidity.
problem Optimizing strategies for market makers with internal liquidity.
method Investigates optimal multi-objective strategy for market makers with internal liquidity.
result Draws important qualitative insights for real-world trading.
RL-CVaR model improves insurance reserving under economic stress.
problem Managing insurance reserve setting under claim development uncertainty and macroeconomic stress.
method Reinforcement Learning (PPO) with CVaR constraints, trained under regime-aware curriculum.
result RL-CVaR policy reduces solvency violations and tail-risk compared to classical methods.
New algorithm optimizes adaptive return level for Markowitz portfolios.
problem Finding an optimal return level for Markowitz portfolios when investor's risk appetite is unknown.
method Krasnoselskii-Mann Proximity Algorithm based on proximity operator and momentum technique.
result Significant improvements over state-of-the-art methods in portfolio optimization.
The study examines how alternative resource adequacy contract designs affect market participants' risk profiles and resource mix.
problem The tension between promoting reliability and competition in liberalized electricity markets.
method Constructs a stochastic equilibrium model of a competitive market with incomplete risk trading and computes investment equilibria under different contracting regimes.
result Alternative contracting regimes can induce different risk profiles and resource mixes, affecting market outcomes.
Analog method solves portfolio optimization problems faster and more efficiently.
problem Accurate covariance matrix estimation and fast optimal portfolio selection for financial applications.
method Two-step process using equilibrium propagation and analog Hopfield networks.
result Fully analog pipeline calculates optimal portfolios in energy-efficient manner.
Hong Kong uses reference class forecasting to improve roadwork project cost and duration estimates.
problem Optimism bias and strategic misrepresentation in infrastructure project forecasts.
method Reference class forecasting applied to 25 roadwork projects in Hong Kong.
result Forecast accuracy distribution and project benchmarking established.
Foresight Arena benchmarks AI forecasting on real-world markets, isolating predictive edge.
problem Evaluating AI forecasting ability in real-world markets is challenging due to overfitting, centralized trust, and conflated metrics.
method Permissionless, on-chain benchmark using probabilistic forecasts, commit-reveal protocol, and smart contracts.
result Demonstrates the need for 350 predictions to reliably distinguish agents of different skill levels.
LiveTradeBench evaluates LLMs in live trading environments.
problem Static benchmarks fail to assess real-world trading ability.
method Live data streaming, portfolio management abstraction, multi-market evaluation.
result LLMs show distinct portfolio styles and adapt to live signals.
New set-valued star-shaped risk measures introduced for better risk assessment.
problem Improving risk assessment in financial contexts.
method Developed new set-valued star-shaped risk measures and proved their representation theorems.
result Set-valued star-shaped risk measures can be represented as unions of set-valued convex risk measures.
LLMs can simulate human investment attitudes based on personality traits.
problem Investigating how LLMs mimic human investment behaviors.
method Simulated investment task using LLM personas with specific Big Five personality profiles.
result LLMs can produce meaningful behavioural differences in investment tasks that align with human traits.
Paper characterizes star-shaped risk measures and their properties.
problem Characterizing risk measures in the presence of liquidity risk and competitive delegation.
method Characterization of star-shaped risk measures, study of their properties.
result Star-shaped risk measures include all practically used risk measures.
Introduces factor risk measures to assess risk relative to multiple factors.
problem Measuring risk relative to multiple factors.
method Introduces a double-argument mapping as a risk measure to assess risk relative to a vector of factors.
result Characterizes various types of factor risk measures including distortion, quantile, linear, and coherent measures.
The paper studies dynamic star-shaped risk measures and their representation.
problem Representing dynamic star-shaped risk measures and their properties.
method Representation theorems for dynamic monetary and star-shaped risk measures.
result Dynamic star-shaped risk measures can be represented as the lower envelope of a family of dynamic convex risk measures.
The paper establishes a connection between different risk measures and their risk contributions.
problem Understanding the relationship between conditional coherent and deviation risk measures.
method Axiomatic framework and continuous-time risk contribution analysis.
result Risk contributions of time-consistent risk measures are also time-consistent.
New risk measures for systemic risk on general probability spaces.
problem Assessing systemic risk on general probability spaces.
method Axiomatic approach to define risk-consistent conditional systemic risk measures.
result The class of risk-consistent conditional systemic risk measures can be decomposed into a state-wise and a univariate component.
Paper introduces quasi-logconvex risk measures and their properties.
problem Characterizing and understanding new risk measures.
method Characterization through dual representation and properties of acceptance sets.
result Established dual representation and taxonomy of quasi-logconvex risk measures.
Study reveals patterns in trader clusters over time, improving investment predictions.
problem Managing diverse trader risk in financial services.
method Clustered trader data analyzed using Ewens' Sampling Distribution and Aggregating Algorithm (AA). Statistically Validated Networks (SVN) applied for improved results.
result Temporal distributions of trader clusters follow Ewens' Sampling Distribution, and AA can be improved with SVN.
Submodularity is studied for convex risk measures, including Expected Shortfall.
problem Characterizing submodularity in convex risk measures.
method Analyzing submodularity properties of law-invariant coherent risk measures, including Expected Shortfall and Value-at-Risk.
result AES is submodular only when it reduces to ES, and empirical analysis shows AES violations are less frequent than VaR and ES violations.
Spectral risk measures are attractive risk measures as they allow the user to obtain risk measures that reflect their risk-aversion functions. To date there has been very little guidance on the choice of risk-aversion functions underlying spectral risk measures. This paper addresses this issue by examining two popular …
Risk measures for multivariate financial positions are studied in a utility-based framework. Under a certain incomplete preference relation, shortfall and divergence risk measures are defined as the optimal values of specific set minimization problems. The dual relationship between these two classes of multivariate ris…
The paper explores non-convex risk measures and their characterizations.
problem Characterizing non-convex risk measures without convexity or weak convexity.
method Characterizes monetary risk measures as lower envelopes of families of convex or coherent risk measures, considering law-invariance and SSD-consistency.
result Unified representation theorems for law-invariant risk measures, including VaR.
Study risk-sensitive reinforcement learning with Lipschitz dynamic risk measures, establishing regret bounds.
problem Risk-sensitive reinforcement learning in Markov decision processes.
method Two model-based algorithms for Lipschitz dynamic risk measures, focusing on regret bounds.
result Upper bounds demonstrate optimal dependencies on actions and episodes, reflecting risk sensitivity vs. sample complexity trade-off.
Develops a new method for risk diversification using dynamic risk measures.
problem Dynamic risk diversification in investment portfolios.
method Introduces dynamic risk contributions and a recursive optimization approach for coherent dynamic distortion risk measures.
result Dynamic risk budgeting strategies can be solved using deep learning.
Paper introduces new risk measures that unify two existing types.
problem Combining two types of risk measures for broader applicability.
method Introduces a new class of risk measures that unify distortion and Haezendonck-Goovaerts measures.
result New risk measures defined on a larger space, with coherent properties in certain scenarios.
New risk measures for financial and ESG risks using utility functions.
problem Assessing financial and ESG risks using traditional risk measures.
method Developed new risk measures based on utility functions.
result Properties of utility functions translate into properties of risk measures.
New risk measures assess cryptocurrency market vulnerabilities during financial distress.
problem Capturing systemic risk in cryptocurrency markets during financial distress.
method Introducing Vulnerability Conditional Risk Measures (VCoES) and related measures.
result Validated theoretical insights and demonstrated practical relevance in cryptocurrency market.
Dual representations for robust risk measures and uncertainty sets.
problem Characterizing continuity of robust risk measures and their uncertainty sets.
method Develop dual representations for robust risk measures and uncertainty sets based on distinct geometric assumptions.
result Two dual frameworks for consolidated uncertainty sets are complementary, not interchangeable.
A new measure quantifies how risk-averse different risk measures are.
problem Measuring the degree of risk aversion among different risk measures.
method Two axioms: normalization and linearity. Two formulas for the functional.
result Quantifies the degree of risk aversion among spectral risk measures.
This paper introduces new risk measures for systemic risk analysis.
problem Analyzing systemic risk in financial systems.
method Introducing conditional distortion risk measures and their properties.
result Presented sufficient conditions for ordering risk measures.
Study asymptotic properties of generalized shortfall risk measures for heavy-tailed risks.
problem Understanding risk measures for heavy-tailed risks.
method Derive asymptotic expansions for generalized shortfall risk measures.
result Unified theory for risk measures including distortion and utility-based measures.
Risk measures are linked to probability structures, and a maximal domain is constructed.
problem Linking risk measures to probability structures and defining a maximal domain.
method Constructing a maximal domain respecting ambiguity and discussing properties.
result A meaningful underlying probability structure is implied by risk measures.
Starting from the requirement that risk measures of financial portfolios should be based on their losses, not their gains, we define the notion of loss-based risk measure and study the properties of this class of risk measures. We characterize loss-based risk measures by a representation theorem and give examples of su…
Abstract: A comprehensive list of trading strategies and market insights.
problem Understanding trading strategies and market insights for implementation.
method Broad categorization into Delta-One and Derivative strategies based on trading expertise.
result Demonstrates how to cater to diverse market participants' preferences.
Study on risk measures in reinforcement learning using Monte-Carlo simulations.
problem Lack of satisfactory risk measures in reinforcement learning.
method Generalized approximation scheme based on Monte-Carlo simulations, neural architecture for risk estimation.
result Variance of reward-to-go does not adequately capture risk in reinforcement learning.
Closed-form solutions for worst-case law invariant risk measures simplify risk analysis.
problem Calculating worst-case risk measures with limited distribution information.
method Developed closed-form solutions for law invariant coherent risk measures.
result Similar closed-form solutions exist for law invariant risk measures as for CVaR.
New risk measures adjust for tail risk inadequacies.
problem Tail risk inadequacy in classical risk measures.
method Developed a family of adjusted risk measures using target risk profiles.
result Analyzed and derived properties of adjusted risk measures.
New risk measure considers horizon risk and interest rate uncertainty.
problem Dynamic risk evaluation considering horizon risk and interest rate uncertainty.
method Introduced a risk measure based on generalized Tsallis entropy.
result New q-entropic risk measure quantifies capital requirement.
Paper introduces a new risk measure that considers risk aversion.
problem Risk management and variability assessment.
method Extended Gini Shortfall risk measure using Choquet integral representations.
result The new risk measure is coherent and captures variability.