Paper proposes decentralized annuities for better retirement security.
problem Current pension systems' limitations and fairness issues.
method Theoretical models and fairness concepts analysis.
result Decentralized annuities offer enhanced flexibility and social welfare.
Prior to the financial crisis mortgage securitization models increased in sophistication as did products built to insure against losses. Layers of complexity formed upon a foundation that could not support it and as the foundation crumbled the housing market followed. That foundation was the Gaussian copula which faile…
Optimal annuitization strategy depends on age, labor income, and mortality risk.
problem Maximizing utility from consumption and labor income under age-dependent mortality.
method Dynamic programming approach to derive closed-form solutions.
result Post-retirement labor income acts as a substitute for annuitization.
Social Security and other public policies can be viewed as a series of cash in and outflows that depend on parameters such as the age distribution of the population and the retirement age. Given forecasts of these parameters, policies can be designed to be financially stable, i.e., to terminate with a zero balance. If …
Study optimal retirement time and consumption with habitual persistence.
problem Understanding retirement consumption patterns with habitual persistence.
method Established concise habitual evolution, used martingale and duality methods.
result Optimal consumption declines sharply at retirement but excess consumption increases.
Study shows bifurcation in optimal retirement planning.
problem Optimal consumption and retirement planning model.
method Cobb-Douglas utility, simple model with wealth bifurcation.
result Critical wealth level leads to a continuum of retirement trajectories.
Paper examines how income support affects retirement decisions for low-income individuals.
problem Retirement decisions of low-income individuals affected by income disaster.
method Modeling consumption/savings, investment, and retirement choices with income support.
result Optimal retirement decision depends on the level of income support provided.
Unified framework explains retirement and annuitization decisions under age-dependent mortality.
problem Complexity of annuitization decisions due to longevity risk and labor force participation.
method Stochastic control and optimal stopping framework with habit formation and endogenous labor supply.
result Rich sequence of retirement dynamics, including defensive and aggressive labor supply phases.
Paper uses Monte Carlo simulations to predict retirement portfolios.
problem Retirement financial planning uncertainty.
method Monte Carlo simulations incorporating inflation, interest rates, etc.
result Probabilistic prediction of IRA and 401(k) values.
A model explains why 4% is a safe retirement withdrawal rate.
problem Determining a safe withdrawal rate for American retirees.
method Discrete-time model of stochastic returns on assets and their moments.
result The 4% rule emerges from adjusting high expected rates of return for various risks.
In this paper we show how to hedge a zero coupon bond with a smaller amount of initial capital than required by the classical risk neutral paradigm, whose (trivial) hedging strategy does not suggest to invest in the risky assets. Long dated zero coupon bonds we derive, invest first primarily in risky securities and whe…
Optimal retirement timing and consumption under shortfall risk management
problem Optimal portfolio, consumption, and endogenous early retirement problem
method Maximizing expected lifetime consumption utility while managing the maximum wealth shortfall relative to a benchmark
result Geometric structure of the stopping set and feedback-form optimal retirement boundary
The paper analyzes optimal retirement strategies in a market with habit persistence and jump diffusion, finding discontinuous investment strategies.
problem Optimal retirement decision in a market with habit persistence and jump diffusion.
method Habit reduction method and duality approach to solve the dual problem using a C1 version of Itô's formula. result Discontinuous investment strategies are possible when the so-called ``de facto wealth'' exceeds a critical proportion of wage.
Study finds optimal retirement timing in uncertain wage scenarios.
problem Optimal retirement timing in presence of uncertain wages.
method Formulated as a free boundary problem in an incomplete market.
result Developed a method to determine optimal retirement timing.
We pose an optimal control problem arising in a perhaps new model for retirement investing. Given a control function f and our current net worth as X(t) for any t, we invest an amount f(X(t)) in the market. We need a fortune of M "superdollars" to retire and want to retire as early as possible. We model our c…
Study examines how liquidity constraints impact optimal retirement decisions.
problem Impact of liquidity constraints on optimal retirement decisions.
method Analytical solution using duality method with different liquidity constraints.
result Sensitivity analysis reveals the effect of liquidity constraints on retirement decisions.
The paper analyzes optimal retirement timing considering age-dependent mortality risk.
problem Optimal retirement timing under age-dependent mortality risk.
method Formulated as a stochastic control and optimal stopping problem, transformed into a finite time horizon, three-dimensional degenerate optimal stopping problem.
result Existence of an optimal retirement boundary, characterized as a unique solution to a nonlinear integral equation.
Dynamic retirement glidepaths evolve over time based on some measure such as the retiree's funded status or current market valuations. Conversely, static glidepaths are fixed at a starting point and selected under the assumption that they will not change. In practice, new static glidepaths may be derived periodically m…
Pension schemes all over the world are under increasing pressure to efficiently hedge the longevity risk posed by ageing populations. In this work, we study an optimal investment problem for a defined contribution pension scheme which decides to hedge the longevity risk using a mortality-linked security, typically a lo…
Investment and consumption strategies with luxury goods for retirement age.
problem Optimal investment and consumption with heterogeneous goods and retirement timing.
method PDE and stochastic control theory, variational inequality, dual transformation.
result Optimal consumption strategies and retirement policies for utility maximizers.
We introduce an extension to Merton's famous continuous time model of optimal consumption and investment, in the spirit of previous works by Pliska and Ye, to allow for a wage earner to have a random lifetime and to use a portion of the income to purchase life insurance in order to provide for his estate, while investi…
The paper examines optimal annuitization for retirees with potential post-retirement work.
problem Post-retirement labor participation complicates optimal annuitization decisions.
method Stochastic control, optimal stopping, expected utility maximization, martingale methodology, duality techniques.
result The optimal annuitization time is linearly dependent on initial wealth, with or without labor income.
Model trains agents to optimize saving and investment strategies for diverse retirement needs.
problem Optimal saving and investment strategies for individuals in varied employment and income profiles.
method Deep reinforcement learning to train intelligent agents with heterogeneous profiles.
result Flexible methodology estimates lifetime consumption and investment choices for different profiles.
We generalize the classic Shiller cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio (CAPE) used for prediction of future total returns of the stock market. We treat earnings growth as exogenous. The difference between log wealth and log earnings is modeled as an autoregression of order 1 with linear trend 4.6% and Gaussian inno…
Optimizes retirement spending and asset allocation to maximize withdrawals and shortfall.
problem Risk of depleting retirement savings with constant withdrawal rules.
method Dynamic asset allocation to maximize weighted EW and ES.
result Dynamic strategy outperforms constant withdrawal and asset allocation rules.
The paper optimizes retirement spending considering habit formation and pension income.
problem Optimizing lifetime consumption under habit formation and pension income.
method Time inhomogeneous stochastic control problem with numerical solution using finite difference scheme.
result Consumption patterns change over time based on habit and optimal strategy.
Paper studies optimal investing for retirees with risk constraints.
problem Retirees' longevity and living standard risks in a fluctuating market.
method Formulated as a portfolio choice problem under time-varying risk capacity constraint. Derived optimal investment strategy using differential equations. Demonstrated endogenous spending measure and active investment strategy.
result Time-varying risk capacity constraint impacts asset allocation in retirement.
Optimizes retirement income with MBGs and neural networks for longevity risk.
problem Maximizing lifetime withdrawals while managing longevity risk.
method Neural-network optimization under stochastic mortality.
result International diversification and longevity pooling improve retirement outcomes.
The purpose of this article is twofold. First, we motivate the need for a new type of stand-alone retirement income insurance product that would help individuals protect against personal longevity risk and possible "retirement ruin" in an economically efficient manner. We label this product a ruin-contingent life annui…
In this paper, we develop an expected utility model for the retirement behavior in the decumulation phase of Australian retirees with sequential family status subject to consumption, housing, investment, bequest and government provided means-tested Age Pension. We account for mortality risk and risky investment assets,…
Retirees who exhaust their savings while still alive are said to experience financial ruin. These savings are typically grown during the accumulation phase then spent during the retirement decumulation phase. Extensive research into invest-and-harvest decumulation strategies has been conducted, but recommendations diff…
Proposes a new robust expectile regression method for high-dimensional data.
problem Heterogeneity in high-dimensional data with heteroscedastic variance or inhomogeneous covariate effects.
method Iteratively reweighted ℓ1-penalization for robust expectile regression (retire).
result Oracle convergence rate after log(log d) iterations in high-dimensional settings.
Modeling taxation of Variable Annuities has been frequently neglected but accounting for it can significantly improve the explanation of the withdrawal dynamics and lead to a better modeling of the financial cost of these insurance products. The importance of including a model for taxation has first been observed by Mo…
Investment strategies in occupational pension plans are optimized for non-tradable income risk.
problem Optimizing investment strategies for occupational pension plans in the presence of non-tradable income risk.
method Formulated as a stochastic optimization problem, analyzed in both constant and stochastic volatility environments.
result Random contributions induce the optimal glide path structure, influenced by initial wealth, contributions, and risk aversion.
Paper tackles utility maximization with job-switching and retirement constraints.
problem Maximizing utility with job-switching and retirement constraints.
method Dual-martingale approach and double obstacle problem theory.
result Characterization of optimal job-switching strategy and wealth boundaries.
Optimal timing for borrowing from a 457(b) plan to maximize returns.
problem Deciding the best time to borrow from a tax-advantaged retirement account.
method Formulated and solved the optimal stopping problem for a loan from a 457(b) plan.
result Derived cutoff rules for optimal loan control, showing how to wait until a certain amount of money is accumulated.
The thesis tackles two stochastic control problems in capital structure and portfolio choice.
problem Optimizing banks' dividend and recapitalization policies and individual's life-cycle portfolio choice.
method Developed stochastic control models to calibrate and analyze U.S. banks' asset values and optimal portfolio selection models.
result Calibrated model reveals that noise in reported asset values can hide up to one-third of true asset return volatility and increase banks' market equity value by 7.8%.
We study the gap between the state pension provided by the Italian pension system pre-Dini reform and post-Dini reform. The goal is to fill the gap between the old and the new pension by joining a defined contribution pension scheme and adopting an optimal investment strategy that is target-based. We find that it is po…
CNN improves causal inference by controlling time-structured covariates.
problem Estimating the effect of early retirement on health outcomes while controlling for time-structured covariates.
method Used CNN to fit nuisance models explaining treatment and outcome, combining them into an augmented inverse probability weighting estimator.
result Uniformly valid inference achieved through CNN, providing rates of convergence and uniformly valid inference guarantees.
The Australian Government uses the means-test as a way of managing the pension budget. Changes in Age Pension policy impose difficulties in retirement modelling due to policy risk, but any major changes tend to be `grandfathered' meaning that current retirees are exempt from the new changes. In 2015, two important chan…
Variable annuities, as a class of retirement income products, allow equity market exposure for a policyholder's retirement fund with electable additional guarantees to limit the downside risk of the market. Management fees and guarantee insurance fees are charged respectively for the market exposure and for the protect…
Retirement gratuity is the money companies typically pay their employees at the end of their contracts or at the time of leaving the company. It is a defined benefit plan and is often given as an alternative to a pension plan. In Botswana, there is now a new pattern whereby companies give their employees the option to …
Optimizes investment strategies for retirees with longevity risk.
problem Maximizing retirement savings under longevity risk for a group of investors.
method Analytic and numerical solutions for investment strategies in both discrete and continuous time models.
result Analytic formulae for optimal investment strategies in both discrete and continuous time models.
Dynamic rule-based investment strategies outperform static ones in pension schemes.
problem Managing retirement income with dynamic investment strategies.
method Rule-based investment strategies compared to dynamic programming.
result Rule-based strategies achieve higher probability of meeting retirement income targets.
Study improves pension scheme efficiency in Kenya through governance and risk management.
problem Limited research on efficiency of Kenyan pension schemes under governance structures.
method Quantitative panel regression analysis on 128 Kenyan pension schemes over 7 years.
result Employee board members have a significant positive effect on pension scheme efficiency.
Develops a statistical learning framework for personalized asset allocation.
problem Continuous-action decision-making with a large number of characteristics.
method Discretization approach with generalized penalties for penalized regression.
result Improves financial well-being with individualized optimal asset allocation.
Tontines were once a popular type of mortality-linked investment pool. They promised enormous rewards to the last survivors at the expense of those died early. And, while this design appealed to the gambling instinc}, it is a suboptimal way to generate retirement income. Indeed, actuarially-fair life annuities making c…
Study evaluates UK CDC schemes, finding intergenerational cross-subsidies in flat-accrual schemes and dynamic-accrual schemes can reduce but not eliminate them.
problem Intergenerational cross-subsidies in UK CDC schemes, particularly in flat-accrual schemes.
method Comparison of flat-accrual and dynamic-accrual CDC schemes, analysis of performance and level of cross-subsidies.
result Dynamic-accrual schemes can reduce but not eliminate intergenerational cross-subsidies, while flat-accrual schemes often have significant cross-subsidies.