Overprocuring reserves can improve network efficiency by using excess reserves for congestion management.
problem Optimizing energy and reserve allocation between zones to minimize costs and ensure deliverability.
method Developed allocation models for co-allocating traded energy and reserve products, considering both deterministic and stochastic flows.
result Excess reserve supplies can be used for congestion management, leading to additional network benefits.
Quantum computers can optimize foreign exchange reserves management.
problem Optimizing foreign exchange reserves management using quantum computing.
method Demonstrated through quantum Monte Carlo risk measurement and quantum algorithms for portfolio optimization.
result Quantum computers can theoretically optimize FX reserves management in the future.
Paper proposes a new reserving model using machine learning techniques.
problem Managing uncertainties in premium sufficiency and reserves for future claims.
method Stacked model combining Gradient Boosting, Random Forest, Artificial Neural Networks, and log-normal approach.
result The proposed model improves traditional reserving techniques, leading to more accurate reserving risk assessment.
Model estimates foreign exchange reserve compositions of undisclosed central banks.
problem Limited information on central bank reserve compositions hinders analysis.
method Hidden Markov Model relating portfolio valuation to exchange rates.
result China's reserve composition likely matches global average, while Singapore holds fewer US dollars.
New pricing framework allocates costs of operating reserves and transmission.
problem Allocating costs of operating reserves and transmission efficiently.
method Causation-based framework using contingency-constrained scheduling models.
result More comprehensive and efficient cost-reflective market operations.
Paper proposes a method to estimate project cost contingency reserves considering various types of uncertainty.
problem Inaccurate estimation of project cost contingency reserves due to ignoring different types of uncertainty.
method Quantitative determination of project cost contingency reserves using Monte Carlo Simulation considering aleatoric, stochastic, and epistemic uncertainties.
result The proposed method provides more accurate contingency reserves that align with actual project risks.
Case study shows impact of co-optimizing energy and reserve for wind energy.
problem Impact of lack of co-optimization of energy and reserve in high wind penetration scenarios.
method Developed two models with and without co-optimization, calibrated with Spanish market parameters.
result Models show significant differences in energy and reserve management.
A method for analysing the risk of taking a too low reserve level by use of Chain Ladder method is developed. We give an answer to the question of how much safety loading in terms of the Chain Ladder standard error has to be added to the Chain Ladder reserve in order to reach a specified security level in loss reservin…
Mack-Net model combines Mack's model with RNNs for better insurance liability estimation.
problem Accurate estimation of insurance liabilities for better financial decision-making.
method Integrates Mack's reserving model with Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs).
result Improves accuracy of general insurance liability assessment.
This research introduces a control system for managing DeFi money supply.
problem Maintaining the value of issued currency in decentralized finance.
method Introduces a time-weighted Proportional-Integral-Derivative (PID) control system.
result Protects the value of issued currency by adapting to market activities.
Study finds Indian mutual funds adjust cash holdings based on inflows, impacting stock purchases.
problem Active liquidity management by mutual funds in India.
method Examined cash holdings and stock purchases of Indian equity mutual funds.
result Funds with active liquidity choices outperform, highlighting the importance of this strategy.
LLMs help automate extraction of actuarial variables from unstructured claims data.
problem Manual processing of unstructured claims data is time-consuming and inconsistent.
method Two-stage processing architecture using LLMs, modular Python pipeline.
result LLM-based extraction achieved high accuracy and practical actuarial value.
Paper introduces a framework for managing cyber risk with insurance and cybersecurity models.
problem Pervasive challenges in managing cyber risk, especially for capital allocation.
method Combines insurance frequency-severity models with cybersecurity cascade models for comprehensive cyber risk assessment. Facilitates informed capital allocation through a two-pillar framework.
result Demonstrates the necessity of comprehensive cost-benefit analysis for budget-constrained companies.
In this paper the utility optimization problem for a general insurance model is studied. The reserve process of the insurance company is described by a stochastic differential equation driven by a Brownian motion and a Poisson random measure, representing the randomness from the financial market and the insurance claim…
Model cash management under ambiguity using maxmin preferences and diffusion.
problem Optimizing cash reserves in the presence of ambiguity.
method Singular control model with maxmin preferences, verified using Dynkin games.
result Higher expected costs and narrower inaction region under increased ambiguity.
Within the Solvency II framework the insurance industry requires a realistic modelling of the risk processes relevant for its business. Every insurance company should be capable of running a holistic risk management process to meet this challenge. For property and casualty (P&C) insurance companies the risk adequate mo…
Stablecoin system improves resilience to extreme market events.
problem Vulnerability of stablecoins to extreme volatility and adversarial attacks.
method MVF-Composer uses multi-agent simulations to stress-test and down-weight manipulative signals.
result Reduces peak peg deviation by 57% and mean recovery time by 3.1x under adversarial conditions.
Paper revisits HVA to address model risk in banking.
problem Model risk and dynamic hedging frictions in banking.
method Reconciles global fair valuation with local bank models.
result Local models should be excluded rather than managed via reserves.
Deployment of emerging technologies and rapid change in industries has created a lot of risk for initiating the new projects. Many techniques and suggestions have been introduced but still lack the gap from various prospective. This paper proposes a reliable project scheduling approach. The objectives of project schedu…
Optimal control of reserve assets for stablecoins to maintain peg stability.
problem Balancing immediate liquidity and yield on reserve assets for stablecoin peg maintenance.
method Developed a stochastic model predictive control framework with moment closure for event intensities, incorporating a soft-thresholding structure for rebalancing.
result Optimal policy shifts predictably toward cash as expected outflows intensify or windows lengthen, preserving most bill carry in calm markets and quickly building cash during stress.
This research improves DeFi interest rates using a PID control system.
problem Lack of adaptive interest rates in DeFi money markets.
method Introduces a time-weighted PID control system for interest rate management.
result Adaptive interest rates improve risk mitigation and market utilization.
New method for individual claims reserving using machine learning.
problem Traditional claims reserving methods are limited in individual claim prediction.
method Restructured data utilization for CL prediction, using multi-period factors.
result Neural networks applied for individual claims reserving.
Study examines value relevance of oil and gas reserve disclosures in London Stock Exchange.
problem Uncertainty in oil and gas reserves poses accounting challenges for investors.
method Empirical analysis using archival data and multifactor framework.
result Changes in reserves and their components are associated with share returns, but insignificantly due to oil price and longitudinal effects. Quality of disclosures positively impacts share returns.
RIVCoin stabilizes cryptocurrency portfolios through a DAO and redistributes income.
problem Stabilizing cryptocurrency value and aligning incentives for all users.
method Decentralized DAO, diversified reserves, and income redistribution.
result Aligns incentives for wealthier users to stabilize smaller users' risk.
RL-CVaR model improves insurance reserving under economic stress.
problem Managing insurance reserve setting under claim development uncertainty and macroeconomic stress.
method Reinforcement Learning (PPO) with CVaR constraints, trained under regime-aware curriculum.
result RL-CVaR policy reduces solvency violations and tail-risk compared to classical methods.
New method simplifies individual claims reserving.
problem Insufficient flexibility and robustness in existing methods.
method Building on classical chain-ladder method, introduces new perspective.
result Advances toward a new standard for micro-level reserving.
Chain-ladder reserving is sensitive to outliers, leading to unreliable estimates.
problem Sensitivity of loss reserving techniques to outliers.
method Derivation of impact functions for reserves and mean squared errors of prediction under Mack's Model.
result Impact of outliers varies widely in a loss triangle and depends on other cells.
Model predicts individual insurance claim reserves using activation patterns.
problem Accurately predicting individual claim reserves in insurance contracts.
method Multinomial logistic regression to model claim activation and development.
result The model generates accurate predictions of total and per coverage reserves.
Many online companies sell advertisement space in second-price auctions with reserve. In this paper, we develop a probabilistic method to learn a profitable strategy to set the reserve price. We use historical auction data with features to fit a predictor of the best reserve price. This problem is delicate - the struct…
We introduce a new approach to incorporate uncertainty into the decision to invest in a commodity reserve. The investment is an irreversible one-off capital expenditure, after which the investor receives a stream of cashflow from extracting the commodity and selling it on the spot market. The investor is exposed to pri…
New model for disability insurance reserving handles delays in claim information.
problem Disability insurance claims are affected by long delays and adjudication processes.
method Proposes a new individual reserving model for real-time claim evolution.
result Shows that new reserves can be calculated as modifications of classic reserves.
The paper develops a new framework for pricing and hedging liquidity in crypto markets.
problem Arbitrage and risk management in crypto market making.
method Developed a new mathematical framework using a coordinate system defined by price and intrinsic liquidity.
result Established a linear dependence of asset reserves and value functions on intrinsic liquidity, facilitating arbitrage-free pricing and delta hedging.
The paper optimizes insurer's dividend, reinsurance, and capital injection strategies for two collaborating business lines.
problem Maximizing expected total dividend payments while managing risk and preventing ruin.
method Solving the problem using a closed-form value function for optimal strategies.
result Optimal strategies include threshold dividend payout, decreasing reinsured risk, and capital injection to prevent ruin.
A new framework combines multiple loss reserving models for better predictive performance.
problem Combining multiple loss reserving models to improve predictive performance.
method Systematic framework that considers full distributional properties and features of reserving data.
result Optimized ensemble outperforms traditional methods and captures relevant quantiles.
In this paper the dependence of wealth distribution and the velocity of money on the required reserve ratio is examined based on a random transfer model of money and computer simulations. A fractional reserve banking system is introduced to the model where money creation can be achieved by bank loans and the monetary a…
Study uses ML to analyze how interest rates affect fund returns, finding gradient boosting is effective.
problem Understanding how interest rate changes impact fund returns.
method Combines Machine Learning and causal inference, using Double Machine Learning framework.
result Gradient boosting is useful for predicting fund returns, showing a significant negative effect of interest rate increases.
Paper presents a method for geographic ratemaking using spatial embeddings.
problem Lack of historical loss data in areas with high exposures.
method Construct spatial features within a complex representation model and use them as inputs to a predictive model.
result Predictions have smaller bias and variance than other spatial interpolation models.
Traditional non-life reserving models largely neglect the vast amount of information collected over the lifetime of a claim. This information includes covariates describing the policy, claim cause as well as the detailed history collected during a claim's development over time. We present the hierarchical reserving mod…
In this article we consider the parameter risk in the context of internal modelling of the reserve risk under Solvency II. We discuss two opposed perspectives on parameter uncertainty and point out that standard methods of classical reserving focusing on the estimation error of claims reserves are in general not approp…
The paper analyzes risk measures and optimal reserve allocation strategies.
problem Risk measures and optimal reserve allocation across multiple lines of business.
method Formalizes expected maximum deficit, introduces implicitly bounded risk measures, and proposes capital allocation approaches.
result Theoretical results on static and dynamic coherence, convexity, and exact optimizations of aggregate minimum reserves.
Framework insures AI actions with reserve capital, preventing loss.
problem Ensuring safety and accountability for AI actions with varying side effects.
method Developed Actuarial Action Interface (AAI) and Authority Frontier to price and gate AI actions.
result Found common refusal and release patterns across domains, with varying required reserve capital.
This paper investigates dividend optimization of an insurance corporation under a more realistic model which takes into consideration refinancing or capital injections. The model follows the compound Poisson framework with credit interest for positive reserve, and debit interest for negative reserve. Ruin occurs when t…
Optimizes reserve prices for first-price auctions to maximize revenue.
problem Optimizing reserve prices for first-price auctions in display advertising.
method Gradient-based algorithm to adaptively update and optimize reserve prices based on bidder responsiveness to experimental shocks.
result Revenue optimization in first-price auctions can be decomposed into demand and bidding components, and techniques are introduced to reduce variance of each.
In this paper we examine the claims reserving problem using Tweedie's compound Poisson model. We develop the maximum likelihood and Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation approaches to fit the model and then compare the estimated models under different scenarios. The key point we demonstrate relates to the compar…
Improved pricing method for illiquid assets using Lambert function.
problem Inaccurate pricing of illiquid assets using traditional methods.
method Deterministic decomposition of reservation price using Lambert function; improved Monte Carlo method (LMC).
result Improved accuracy in pricing illiquid assets through LMC method.
Life insurance cash flows become reserve dependent when contract conditions are modified during the contract term on condition that actuarial equivalence is maintained. As a result, insurance cash flows and prospective reserves depend on each other in a circular way, and it is a non-trivial problem to solve that circul…
We examine the problem of dynamic reserving for risk in multiple currencies under a general coherent risk measure. The reserver requires to hedge risk in a time-consistent manner by trading in baskets of currencies. We show that reserving portfolios in multiple currencies V are time-consistent when (and only…
Develops a new GLM framework for claims reserving with adaptive estimation.
problem Accurate assessment of claims reserves with dynamic and dependent claim activity.
method Multivariate evolutionary GLM framework with adaptive particle filtering algorithm.
result Adaptive estimation of evolving factors improves claims reserve accuracy.