Paper proposes real-time VaR estimation using quantile regression forest with conformal calibration.
problem Real-time estimation of Value at Risk (VaR) in rapidly changing markets.
method Quantile regression forest trained offline, real-time VaR estimates via observed risk factors, conformalized estimator for reliability.
result The proposed method provides reliable real-time VaR estimates.
Real-time uncertainty estimation for computer vision tasks.
problem Real-time inference of uncertainty in deep learning models.
method Uncertainty-Aware Distribution Distillation method for fast inference.
result Significantly reduced inference time with improved uncertainty and predictive performance.
A new real-time method estimates system matrices and states using Kalman filter.
problem Real-time estimation of system matrices and states using Kalman filter.
method Estimation in an observation space, time-invariant interval, and online learning framework.
result Extraordinary performance in estimating matrices for damped oscillation model.
Improved real-time UAV terrain following with RVM-RLS filter.
problem Accurate real-time waypoints estimation under measurement noise in nonlinear, time-varying systems.
method Residual Variance Matching Recursive Least Squares (RVM-RLS) filter guided by RVME criterion.
result Improved waypoints estimation accuracy by approximately 88% compared to benchmarks.
PRISM provides real-time SLAM with uncertainty estimates for agent and map states.
problem Lack of uncertainty estimates and real-time capability in SLAM.
method Combines differentiable rendering and 6-DoF dynamics, uses approximations for Bayesian inference.
result Runs at 10Hz real-time with similar accuracy to state-of-the-art SLAM.
TAKDE optimizes kernel density estimation for real-time dynamic processes.
problem Real-time density estimation in applications like computer vision and signal processing.
method Derives asymptotic mean integrated squared error (AMISE) upper bound for 'sliding window' kernel density estimator and proposes TAKDE as a novel, theoretically optimal estimator.
result TAKDE outperforms other dynamic density estimators in terms of test log-likelihood and runtime.
Geometric method improves uncertainty estimation in real-time.
problem Improving uncertainty estimation in machine learning models.
method Geometric distance from training inputs for uncertainty estimation, post-hoc calibration.
result Method yields better uncertainty estimations than existing approaches.
InfoAtlas speeds up MI estimation for real-time data analysis.
problem Efficiently measuring statistical dependency between high-dimensional datasets.
method Directly infers mutual information in a single forward pass using a pretrained model.
result Matches state-of-the-art accuracy with 100x speedup.
Study improves queue length estimation from connected vehicles by filtering parameters.
problem Large errors in estimated queue lengths at low market penetration rates.
method Used Kalman and Particle filters as multilevel real-time estimators.
result Filters reduce estimation errors and improve accuracy within 15 minutes.
Paper introduces online tensor inference for real-time data analysis.
problem Real-time processing of high-dimensional tensor data.
method Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) for efficient online inference.
result Establishes non-asymptotic convergence and optimal estimation error rate.
Adapts MBDOE for real-time parameter estimation in complex systems.
problem Costly posterior inference and design optimization in nonlinear systems.
method Combines DAD with differentiable mechanistic models for real-time parameter estimation.
result Demonstrated on four systems, including a DC motor.
A new method learns noise characteristics for better state estimation in real-time systems.
problem Challenges in accurately estimating states due to uncertainty in process and measurement models.
method Proposes a learning-based approach with different loss functions to identify noise characteristics.
result Demonstrates improved performance in real-time vehicle state estimation.
There has been an explosion of interest in functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) during the past two decades. Naturally, this has been accompanied by many major advances in the understanding of the human connectome. These advances have served to pose novel challenges as well as open new avenues for research. One …
Contemporary power grids are being challenged by rapid voltage fluctuations that are caused by large-scale deployment of renewable generation, electric vehicles, and demand response programs. In this context, monitoring the grid's operating conditions in real time becomes increasingly critical. With the emergent large …
A new method predicts student skill success rates in real-time.
problem Accurate and explainable prediction of student skill success rates in real-time.
method Performance Distribution Tracing (PDT) using a Dynamic Bayesian Network with continuous random variables.
result PDT provides both explainability and accuracy in real-time predictions of student skill success rates.
MLDemon monitors ML systems post-deployment, improving reliability with real-time performance estimates and expert labels.
problem Ensuring reliability of machine learning systems post-deployment, especially when user inputs differ from training data.
method Integrates unlabeled and on-demand labeled data to monitor ML model performance in real-time, deciding when to acquire expert labels.
result Outperforms existing approaches in temporal datasets with diverse distribution drifts, providing theoretical optimality for distribution drifts.
Study uses DNNs for real-time EM inversion, highlighting model errors and proposing solutions.
problem Model errors in DNNs affect real-time geosteering decisions in EM measurements.
method Bayesian ensemble smoothing with DNNs for thousands of model evaluations, identifying multimodality.
result Model errors can lead to biased estimates, necessitating error reduction techniques.
This thesis builds a real-time VaR calculation workflow for crypto derivatives.
problem Managing risk in volatile cryptocurrency markets.
method Applied EMWA, GARCH, and HAR models to forecast volatility; used delta-gamma-theta approach and Cornish-Fisher expansion.
result Real-time VaR estimates with millisecond calculation latencies.
RCUKF combines data-driven modeling and Bayesian estimation for accurate system state estimation.
problem Challenges in obtaining reliable process models for complex systems.
method Integrates reservoir computing with unscented Kalman filtering.
result Demonstrated effectiveness on benchmark problems and real-time vehicle trajectory estimation.
Dividing local Gaussian processes improve real-time prediction efficiency.
problem Efficient online prediction for large data sets.
method Iterative data-driven division of input space for sublinear computational complexity.
result Sublinear computational complexity in real-time prediction.
Engine predicts real-time air quality with high resolution.
problem Real-time prediction of air pollutants for health monitoring.
method Combines official data, models, land cover, traffic data for high-resolution predictions.
result Engine produces predictions with resolution of a few dozen meters.
A new method for real-time CCA on streaming data.
problem Finding correlated features in online data streams.
method Sliding Window Informative Canonical Correlation Analysis (SWICCA) using streaming PCA.
result SWICCA provides real-time CCA components in high dimensions with theoretical guarantees.
Workflow uses deep learning to improve geosteering accuracy in Goliat Field.
problem Uncertainty in geological models and forward simulations affects real-time estimations.
method Offline DNN training, online FlexIES with probabilistic estimation.
result Median probabilistic estimation matches proprietary inversion.
In most illiquid markets, there is no obvious proxy for the market price of an asset. The European corporate bond market is an archetypal example of such an illiquid market where mid-prices can only be estimated with a statistical model. In this OTC market, dealers / market makers only have access, indeed, to partial i…
Developing countries suffer from traffic congestion, poorly planned road/rail networks, and lack of access to public transportation facilities. This context results in an increase in fuel consumption, pollution level, monetary losses, massive delays, and less productivity. On the other hand, it has a negative impact on…
Real-time ionospheric images created from limited data using parallel Kalman filters.
problem Monitoring ionospheric irregularities using limited spatio-temporal observations.
method Bayesian framework with parallel Kalman filters and connectivity information.
result Real-time ionospheric images with high spatio-temporal resolution can be produced.
KalmanNet uses neural networks to improve state estimation in systems with unknown dynamics.
problem State estimation of systems with non-linear dynamics and partial information.
method KalmanNet integrates a recurrent neural network with the Kalman filter to handle non-linearities and model mismatches.
result KalmanNet outperforms classic filtering methods in systems with both mismatched and accurate domain knowledge.
Study predicts ad conversions based on URL embeddings.
problem Predicting user conversion likelihood from visited URLs.
method Introduced URL embedding models and evaluated conversion prediction models.
result Demonstrated effectiveness of URL embedding models for conversion prediction.
New SGMM algorithm for efficient estimation of moment restriction models.
problem Estimation and inference on overidentified moment restriction models.
method Stochastic Approximation to Generalized Method of Moments (SGMM).
result SGMM offers fast and scalable implementation with streaming dataset handling.
An online learning framework for survival analysis with real-time adaptation.
problem Real-time adaptation to dynamic environments and censored data in survival analysis.
method Online Newton Step (ONS) for optimal second order online convex optimization.
result Logarithmic stochastic regret for ONS with adaptive aggregation method.
Machine learning predicts COVID-19 activity in China.
problem Real-time forecasting of COVID-19 activity in Chinese provinces.
method Combines mechanistic disease models with digital traces (internet searches, news alerts). Uses clustering and data augmentation techniques.
result Stable and accurate forecasts 2 days ahead of current time, outperforming baseline models in 27 out of 32 provinces.
We present a queuing model of parking dynamics and a model-based prediction method to provide real-time probabilistic forecasts of future parking occupancy. The queuing model has a non-homogeneous arrival rate and time-varying service time distribution. All statistical assumptions of the model are verified using data f…
Markov Decision Processes (MDPs), the mathematical framework underlying most algorithms in Reinforcement Learning (RL), are often used in a way that wrongfully assumes that the state of an agent's environment does not change during action selection. As RL systems based on MDPs begin to find application in real-world sa…
Extends GCN-SIR model for US COVID-19 spread analysis.
problem Modeling COVID-19 spread in the USA using SIR models and graph approaches.
method Coupling GCNs with SIR models to estimate mobility and hyperparameters.
result GCN-SIR approach outperforms existing methods for US data.
We create real-time geodesic rendering for non-isotropic geometries.
problem Challenging visualization of non-isotropic geometries.
method Novel methods for real-time native geodesic rendering.
result Methods can be applied to visualization, machine learning, and video games.
FedCM measures contributions in real-time for federated learning.
problem Fairly allocating contributions in federated learning systems.
method FedCM calculates impact based on current and previous rounds with attention aggregation.
result FedCM is more sensitive to data quality and quantity in real-time.
This paper tackles real-time Bayesian inverse problems using neural networks.
problem Real-time inference of posterior distributions from experimental data.
method Amortized variational inference with Gaussian and Flow guides.
result The approach provides posterior estimates in real-time at the cost of a forward pass.
Study applies Hawkes volatility to mid-price process for real-time risk management.
problem Lack of studies on Hawkes volatility for tick-level price dynamics.
method Derived variance formula for unmarked and marked Hawkes models, applied to mid-price process.
result Reliable results and high predictive power of intraday Hawkes volatility.
Real-time personalization for HAR models learns from new users without prior data.
problem Poor performance of HAR models on new users without labeled data.
method Incremental online domain adaptation using batch normalization.
result Personalized HAR models adapt to new users in real-time.
Generative profiling improves real-time task timing for varied resource contexts.
problem Inaccurate task timing analysis for complex hardware architectures.
method Nonparametric, conditional multi-marginal Schrödinger Bridge (MSB) formulation for synthesizing context-dependent timing profiles.
result Maximum likelihood accurate execution profiles for unseen resource contexts.
Deep learning solutions are being increasingly used in mobile applications. Although there are many open-source software tools for the development of deep learning solutions, there are no guidelines in one place in a unified manner for using these tools towards real-time deployment of these solutions on smartphones. Fr…
Statistical arbitrage strategies, such as pairs trading and its generalizations, rely on the construction of mean-reverting spreads enjoying a certain degree of predictability. Gaussian linear state-space processes have recently been proposed as a model for such spreads under the assumption that the observed process is…
Proposes a framework for modeling RTB auctions using point processes.
problem Modeling and optimizing repeated auctions in the RTB ecosystem.
method Develops a stochastic framework using point processes to model and optimize RTB auctions.
result The proposed framework can be approximated to a Poisson point process, enabling the use of established properties.
New simulation method tackles sign problem in quantum fields.
problem Sign problem in real-time dynamics of quantum fields.
method Inspired by reinforcement learning, complex Langevin approach with learned optimal kernels.
result Significant extension of real-time simulations in 1+1d scalar field theory.
Accurate real-time monitoring systems of influenza outbreaks help public health officials make informed decisions that may help save lives. We show that information extracted from cloud-based electronic health records databases, in combination with machine learning techniques and historical epidemiological information,…
Improved CEM for fast real-time planning in high-dimensional control tasks.
problem Sampling inefficiency of CEM in real-time planning.
method Novel additions to CEM including temporally-correlated actions and memory.
result 2.7-22x less samples and 1.2-10x performance increase.
BusTr predicts bus travel times from real-time traffic forecasts.
problem Improving accuracy of bus travel time predictions.
method Neural sequence model trained on real-time traffic forecasts.
result BusTr outperforms DeepTTE by 30% in Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE).
Neural network Kalman filtering improves 3D ultrasound object tracking.
problem Accurate and robust 3D positional estimation from 2D ultrasound data.
method Neural network training for out-of-plane offset estimation, combined with Kalman filtering.
result Mean error of 0.1mm for simulated data, 0.2mm for experimental data.