Optimizes RTB campaigns by selecting user profiles and website configurations.
problem Maximizing impressions and profitability in RTB campaigns.
method Optimizes user profiles and website configurations, combines with other strategies.
result As the required number of visits increases, average profitability decreases.
Real time bidding (RTB) enables demand side platforms (bidders) to scale ad campaigns across multiple publishers affiliated to an RTB ad exchange. While driving multiple campaigns for mobile app install ads via RTB, the bidder typically has to: (i) maintain each campaign's efficiency (i.e., meet advertiser's target cos…
A PID-based feedback-control system improves multiple KPIs in RTB display advertising.
problem Challenges in simultaneously improving multiple KPIs in RTB campaigns.
method Sequential Control using PID-based feedback and importance metrics.
result Effective in simultaneously controlling multiple KPIs in both simulations and live traffic.
Study predicts ad conversions based on URL embeddings.
problem Predicting user conversion likelihood from visited URLs.
method Introduced URL embedding models and evaluated conversion prediction models.
result Demonstrated effectiveness of URL embedding models for conversion prediction.
In digital advertising, Click-Through Rate (CTR) and Conversion Rate (CVR) are very important metrics for evaluating ad performance. As a result, ad event prediction systems are vital and widely used for sponsored search and display advertising as well as Real-Time Bidding (RTB). In this work, we introduce an enhanced …
Study addresses RTB model performance drops due to distribution shifts.
problem Distribution shifts between training and target environments in RTB markets.
method Applies Exponential Tilt Reweighting Alignment (ExTRA) algorithm to estimate and correct model weights.
result Demonstrates improved RTB model performance using ExTRA algorithm.
Optimizes RTB bidding without exploration, improving performance under various budgets.
problem Lack of clear evaluation and generalization issues in RTB systems.
method Maximum entropy principle and conditional independence structures to train a model that generalizes to unseen budget conditions.
result Significantly improved performance under various budget settings compared to baselines.
Proposes a framework for modeling RTB auctions using point processes.
problem Modeling and optimizing repeated auctions in the RTB ecosystem.
method Develops a stochastic framework using point processes to model and optimize RTB auctions.
result The proposed framework can be approximated to a Poisson point process, enabling the use of established properties.
BAT benchmark for autobidding tasks in RTB auctions.
problem Lack of comprehensive datasets and benchmarks for autobidding.
method Developed a benchmark for two auction formats, implemented robust baselines.
result Provides a framework for developing and refining autobidding algorithms.
Optimizes web publisher revenues from RTB auctions.
problem Maximizing revenue from RTB auctions with limited information.
method Incremental time-weighted matrix factorization for user and placement profiles; Aalen's Additive model for censored bid predictions.
result Significant revenue increase for web publishers.
Paper uses RL and diffusion models to solve Bayesian inverse problems.
problem Bayesian inverse problems with latent biases.
method Relative Trajectory Balance (RTB) for RL, conditional diffusion models, off-policy backtracking exploration.
result RTB improves diffusion model posteriors for inverse problems.
HapNet predicts marketing campaign effects using a hierarchical structure.
problem Complex and challenging effect prediction for marketing campaigns.
method Hierarchical Capsule Prediction Network (HapNet).
result HapNet outperforms state-of-the-art methods in both synthetic and real data.
Real-time bidding (RTB) systems, which utilize auctions to allocate user impressions to competing advertisers, continue to enjoy success in digital advertising. Assessing the effectiveness of such advertising remains a challenge in research and practice. This paper proposes a new approach to perform causal inference on…
This paper enhances uplift modeling for multi-treatment marketing campaigns.
problem Optimizing marketing strategies by selecting individuals likely to respond to different treatments.
method Leveraging score ranking and calibration techniques.
result Improves overall performance of marketing campaigns.
In online advertising, display ads are increasingly being placed based on real-time auctions where the advertiser who wins gets to serve the ad. This is called real-time bidding (RTB). In RTB, auctions have very tight time constraints on the order of 100ms. Therefore mechanisms for bidding intelligently such as clickth…
The paper tackles the issue of preferential attachment in targeted display advertising by developing domain-adaptation approaches.
problem Skewed distribution of data leads to preferential attachment towards high-budget partners.
method Develops domain-adaptation approaches to predict interested users for low-budget partners.
result Proposed approaches outperform other domain-adaptation methods across different points of campaigns.
New method detects adversarial attacks in industrial systems.
problem Adversarial attacks compromise machine learning models in industrial control systems.
method Introduces domain adaptation layer and Monte Carlo simulation for proactive defense.
result Approximates Bayes optimal mitigation for improved detection model health.
Study uses causal machine learning to assess coupon campaign impact on retailer sales.
problem Assessing the causal effect of a coupon campaign on retailer sales.
method Causal machine learning algorithms, subgroup analysis, optimal policy learning.
result Only two coupon categories (drugstore and other food) have a significant positive impact on sales.
Study optimizes classifiers for credit card mail campaigns and default prediction.
problem Optimizing classifiers for credit card mail campaigns and default prediction.
method Three distinct models: response, risk, and response-risk. Optimized various performance metrics.
result Random Forest classifier achieves highest accuracy (83.2%) in multi-class response-risk model.
This paper optimizes ad bids and daily budgets for multiple campaigns in pay-per-click advertising.
problem Optimizing ad bids and daily budgets for multiple campaigns in pay-per-click advertising.
method Formulated as a combinatorial semi-bandit problem, solved using Gaussian Processes and four algorithms.
result Regret upper bounded as O(sqrt{T}), where T is the time horizon.
The paper introduces revenue uplift modeling to maximize marketing profits.
problem Maximizing incremental sales versus maximizing incremental revenue in marketing campaigns.
method Response transformation and two-stage models to decompose campaign profit.
result Revenue uplift modeling can improve campaign profit substantially.
Study analyzes factors influencing healthcare providers' engagement with SMS campaigns.
problem Understanding what drives healthcare providers to engage with SMS campaigns.
method Used logistic regression, random forest, and neural network models to analyze data.
result Identified key factors influencing engagement with SMS campaigns.
New bid shading algorithm reduces costs by 55%.
problem Minimizing costs in online advertising auctions.
method Win-rate prediction and surplus maximization using logistic regression.
result 7% more profit for advertisers compared to benchmarks.
The paper tackles budget allocation for multiple campaigns using a novel combinatorial bandit approach.
problem Maximizing cumulative returns with limited budgets across various ad lines.
method Formulated as a multi-task combinatorial bandit problem, integrates Bayesian hierarchical models, and uses Thompson sampling.
result Demonstrates robustness and adaptability in maximizing overall cumulative returns.
A Qini-based uplift model improves retention marketing campaign performance.
problem Isolating the marketing effect of a campaign and identifying responsive customers.
method Qini-based uplift regression model using logistic regression.
result Qini-optimized uplift models improve performance and provide interpretable models.
PolicySynth improves synthetic data alignment with real data for better campaign decisions.
problem Synthetic data used in decision support systems often leads to incorrect decisions.
method PolicySynth framework that conditions synthetic data on churn scorer to align with real data decisions.
result PolicySynth achieves high strategy simulation fidelity (0.923-0.960) on churn and acquisition datasets.
Activists align with large fund preferences for success.
problem Aligning with large fund preferences increases activist success.
method Analyzed previous proxy voting behavior to estimate preferences and correlated them with activist success.
result Campaigns with higher alignment receive more votes and are more successful.
Paper addresses CPA line forecasting in online advertising mid-flight.
problem Forecasting ad campaign performance mid-flight considering bidding mechanisms.
method Generates relationships between metrics and optimization signals, estimates sensitivity, and characterizes advertiser spends vs. eCPA.
result Demonstrates promising accuracy in forecasting against actual deliveries.
Optimizes user marketing campaigns to balance cost and effectiveness.
problem Lack of methods to optimize marketing campaigns considering cost and effectiveness.
method Proposes a treatment effect optimization algorithm using deep learning to balance cost and effectiveness.
result Demonstrates superior performance in cost-efficiency and real-world business value.
The paper tackles decision making problems with funnel structure in email marketing campaigns.
problem Decision making challenges in systems with funnel structure, where fewer observations are received from deeper layers.
method Formulated as a contextual bandit with funnel structure and developed a multi-task learning algorithm.
result Our algorithms offer significant improvement over previous methods in email marketing campaigns.
This paper addresses the problem of inferring a regular expression from a given set of strings that resembles, as closely as possible, the regular expression that a human expert would have written to identify the language. This is motivated by our goal of automating the task of postmasters of an email service who use r…
Framework detects influential actors in disinformation networks.
problem Identifying and countering hostile influence operations on social media.
method Combines NLP, ML, graph analytics, and causal inference.
result 96% precision, 79% recall, 96% PR-curve area for IO detection.
Mobile payment incentives optimized using merchant transaction networks.
problem Optimizing marketing campaigns with limited budgets.
method Graph representation learning on transaction networks.
result Effective modeling of merchant sensitivity to incentives.
Chagas disease is a neglected disease, and information about its geographical spread is very scarse. We analyze here mobility and calling patterns in order to identify potential risk zones for the disease, by using public health information and mobile phone records. Geolocalized call records are rich in social and mobi…
Study uses time series analysis to predict player churn and conversion in games.
problem Predicting player churn and conversion in free-to-play games.
method State Space time series approach with Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average and Unobserved Components models.
result Unobserved Components approach fails to detect marketing campaigns and predicts abandonment poorly.
Study optimal bidding strategies for digital ads targeting purchases and health campaigns.
problem Optimizing advertising strategies in digital channels.
method Continuous-time models encoding user behavior and auction mechanisms, semi-explicit formulas for optimal bidding.
result Semi-explicit formulas for optimal value and bidding policy for different types of advertising.
It takes skill to build a meaningful predictive model even with the abundance of implementations of modern machine learning algorithms and readily available computing resources. Building a model becomes challenging if hundreds of terabytes of data need to be processed to produce the training data set. In a digital adve…
UCB algorithms estimate uplifts in multi-variable reward systems.
problem Marketing campaigns and recommender systems with multiple outcome variables.
method UCB-style algorithms for estimating uplifts over a baseline.
result Sublinear regret bounds for multiple problem variants.
This study integrates cost-sensitive and causal classification methods.
problem Improving classification model performance in business decision-making.
method A unifying evaluation framework for cost-sensitive and causal classification.
result Conventional classification is a specific case of causal classification.
In this paper, we attempt to improve Statistical Machine Translation (SMT) systems on a very diverse set of language pairs (in both directions): Czech - English, Vietnamese - English, French - English and German - English. To accomplish this, we performed translation model training, created adaptations of training sett…
A typical viral marketing model identifies influential users in a social network to maximize a single product adoption assuming unlimited user attention, campaign budgets, and time. In reality, multiple products need campaigns, users have limited attention, convincing users incurs costs, and advertisers have limited bu…
Proposes a greedy algorithm for telecom offers to retain subscribers.
problem Maximizing revenue while preventing churn in telecom subscribers.
method Combinatorial algorithm for offer optimization under heterogeneous incentives.
result Efficient and accurate solution for large subscriber bases.
This study compares logistic regression and XGBoost for predicting credit risk.
problem Predicting credit risk in financial services.
method Advanced machine learning techniques (logistic regression and XGBoost) with data preprocessing.
result XGBoost outperforms logistic regression in predicting credit risk.
In recent years, RTB(Real Time Bidding) becomes a popular online advertisement trading method. During the auction, each DSP(Demand Side Platform) is supposed to evaluate current opportunity and respond with an ad and corresponding bid price. It's essential for DSP to find an optimal ad selection and bid price determina…
SMC analysis reveals key transient effects in macroeconomic ABM.
problem Analysis of complex ABMs is challenging and often relies on ad hoc methods.
method Statistical model checking (SMC) implemented through MultiVeStA.
result Clear contrast across parameter families in macro-financial and structural sweeps.
A simple Ising spin model which can describe the mechanism of advertising in a duopoly market is proposed. In contrast to other agent-based models, the influence does not flow inward from the surrounding neighbors to the center site, but spreads outward from the center to the neighbors. The model thus describes the spr…
BiCB combines traffic prediction and bidding optimization for live advertising.
problem Real-time bidding in live advertising with unknown future traffic.
method Binary Constrained Bidding (BiCB) that merges mathematical analysis and statistical traffic estimation.
result BiCB achieves good approximation to optimal bidding results with low complexity.
In the age of data driven solution, the customer demographic attributes, such as gender and age, play a core role that may enable companies to enhance the offers of their services and target the right customer in the right time and place. In the marketing campaign, the companies want to target the real user of the GSM …