Research suggests using deep learning for better recommendation systems.
problem Recommender systems rely on proxies for A/B testing, leading to random success.
method Advocates for using deep learning to improve recommendation performance.
result Deep learning can potentially optimize reward in recommendation systems.
Reducing volatility proxy improves apparent market correlation dynamics.
problem Attributing apparent slow collective market dynamics to intrinsic or driver inheritance.
method Coupled Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model with VIX proxy, decomposing and controlling for autocorrelation.
result VIX-coupled model reduces effective relaxation time from 298 to 61 trading days, improving fit over bare mean reversion.
A new framework improves VaR recalibration by balancing reliance on imperfect volatility proxies.
problem How to balance reliance on imperfect volatility proxies in one-sided VaR recalibration.
method Proxy-reliance control framework that interpolates between constant-shift and proxy-scaled corrections.
result Lower or intermediate proxy reliance can outperform fully proxy-scaled recalibration in stressed left-tail VaR control.
Spatial machine learning improves poverty targeting in Indonesia.
problem Conventional PMT methods have high exclusion and inclusion errors due to spatial dependencies and regional heterogeneity.
method Integrates spatial contiguity matrices into SML models to identify and compare poverty clusters.
result SML reduces exclusion errors from 28% to 20% compared to standard machine learning models.
We consider the problem of improving fairness when one lacks access to a dataset labeled with protected groups, making it difficult to take advantage of strategies that can improve fairness but require protected group labels, either at training or runtime. To address this, we investigate improving fairness metrics for …
A faster graph kernel using optical random features.
problem High computation cost of graphlet kernel due to isomorphism test.
method Kernel random features, optical random features, mean kernel metric.
result The proposed method is orders of magnitude faster with similar or better accuracy.
Proposes a method to create robust linear models with noisy proxies of unobserved variables.
problem Learning robust linear models to handle interventions on unobserved variables with noisy proxies.
method Regularization term that balances in-distribution performance and robustness to interventions.
result Single proxy can create prediction optimal estimators under interventions of bounded strength.
New method combines strengths of two PCL approaches without density ratio estimation.
problem Estimating causal functions in Proxy Causal Learning with unobserved confounders and proxies.
method Kernel-based doubly robust estimators combining treatment and outcome bridges, density ratio-free.
result Outperforms existing methods on PCL benchmarks, including a prior doubly robust method.
In this paper, we develop an expected utility model for the retirement behavior in the decumulation phase of Australian retirees with sequential family status subject to consumption, housing, investment, bequest and government provided means-tested Age Pension. We account for mortality risk and risky investment assets,…
Due to the recent advances on Neural Architecture Search (NAS), it gains popularity in designing best networks for specific tasks. Although it shows promising results on many benchmarks and competitions, NAS still suffers from its demanding computation cost for searching high dimensional architectural design space, and…
A new permutation method improves two-sample testing power.
problem Two-sample testing with improved power and validity.
method Structured block-restricted cross-swaps.
result Block-restricted permutations achieve higher power than full permutations.
New method identifies causal relationships using proxy variables in the presence of unmeasured confounders.
problem Challenges in inferring causal relationships due to unmeasured confounding.
method Develops a general nonparametric approach using a single negative control outcome (NCO) and negative control exposure (NCE).
result Establishes a new identification result and proposes a kernel-based testing procedure.
A new framework detects adverse dataset shifts using outlier scores.
problem False alarms in dataset shift tests.
method Outlier scores to compare contamination rates at varying thresholds.
result Reduces the sensitivity to minor differences in predictive performance.
Regulators require financial institutions to estimate counterparty default risks from liquid CDS quotes for the valuation and risk management of OTC derivatives. However, the vast majority of counterparties do not have liquid CDS quotes and need proxy CDS rates. Existing methods cannot account for counterparty-specific…
This paper aims at theoretically and empirically comparing two standard optimization criteria for Reinforcement Learning: i) maximization of the mean value and ii) minimization of the Bellman residual. For that purpose, we place ourselves in the framework of policy search algorithms, that are usually designed to maximi…
Proposes a falsification framework to test algorithmic discriminant validity.
problem Unintended model behavior in predictive algorithms.
method Falsification framework based on statistical tests comparing prediction losses across outcomes.
result Establishes discriminant validity for some outcomes but not others.
Proposes a test to ensure predictive algorithms predict intended outcomes better than unintended ones.
problem Unintended model behavior leading to prediction of unintended outcomes.
method Falsification framework using nonparametric hypothesis testing to compare prediction losses across outcomes.
result Establishes discriminant validity with respect to gender but not race in an admissions setting.
Algorithm identifies best arm with biased proxy and selective ground truth audits.
problem Fixed-confidence best-arm identification with biased proxy and selective ground truth.
method Propensity-weighted estimator and adaptive auditing algorithm.
result Plug-in Neyman rule achieves near-oracle audit efficiency.
PPAT uses predictions to improve risk estimation in active testing.
problem Exploiting informative predictions from black-box models for efficient risk estimation.
method Combines LURE estimator with prediction-powered control variate.
result PPAT outperforms existing methods in risk estimation and uncertainty quantification.
Designing deterministic denominators for SGLD stabilizes large drifts.
problem Stabilizing large drifts in SGLD
method Using state-dependent envelopes and empirical quantiles for activation thresholds
result Proxy-quantile denominators are close to oracle-score behavior and improve deterministic taming choices
Granger causality analysis, as one of the most popular time series causality methods, has been widely used in the economics, neuroscience. However, unobserved confounders is a fundamental problem in the observational studies, which is still not solved for the non-linear Granger causality. The application works often de…
This paper introduces a Bayesian framework for optimizing online experiments to maximize profit.
problem Statistical flaws and reliance on proxy metrics in A/B tests compromise their effectiveness.
method Hierarchical Bayesian model for estimating conversion probability and monetary value, decision-theoretic stopping rule.
result The framework ensures experiments conclude when no variant offers a significant profit improvement, conserving resources.
PROBE optimizes best-arm identification with cheap proxies, improving sample complexity.
problem Fixed-confidence best-arm identification with costly rewards and correlated cheap proxies.
method PROBE uses control-variate adjustment and phase elimination to learn residual variance online.
result PROBE achieves oracle sample complexity up to a constant factor and additive calibration cost.
Motivated by the need to audit complex and black box models, there has been extensive research on quantifying how data features influence model predictions. Feature influence can be direct (a direct influence on model outcomes) and indirect (model outcomes are influenced via proxy features). Feature influence can also …
The study proposes a framework to accept OOD data based on competence scores.
problem Silent failures in Domain Generalization where models reject OOD data without proper justification.
method A learning to reject framework using proxy incompetence scores to predict trustworthiness.
result Increasing incompetence scores are predictive of reduced accuracy, but not always favorable for accuracy/rejection trade-off.
New method robust to random distributional shifts in prediction.
problem Random distributional shifts in real-world settings.
method Hybrid approach combining long-term and proxy outcomes.
result Hybrid approach yields lower mean-squared error than current methods.
ABae efficiently computes subset means with expensive predicates using stratified sampling.
problem Computing subset means with expensive predicates efficiently.
method Stratified sampling and proxy models.
result Mean squared error of O(N−1) when N is split evenly between stages. Under the Solvency II regime, life insurance companies are asked to derive their solvency capital requirements from the full loss distributions over the coming year. Since the industry is currently far from being endowed with sufficient computational capacities to fully simulate these distributions, the insurers have t…
Bayesian optimization for long-term outcomes using fast and slow experiments.
problem Optimizing long-term system effects with short-term misleading results.
method Combining fast and slow experiments for Bayesian optimization.
result Sequential optimization over large action spaces in a short time.
Paper shows robust estimators converge to true risk minimizers at optimal rates.
problem Understanding asymptotic properties of robust risk minimizers.
method Investigates robust analogues of empirical risk minimization, focusing on median of means estimator.
result Robust minimizers converge to true minimizers at optimal rates and have similar asymptotic variance.
Study accelerates NAS research with a large dataset of ZC proxies.
problem Speeding up neural architecture search with ZC proxies.
method Created NAS-Bench-Suite, evaluated 13 ZC proxies across 28 tasks, and provided a unified codebase.
result ZC proxies capture substantial complementary information and can improve NAS algorithm performance.
Unified framework for analyzing neural networks trained by gradient descent.
problem Lack of generalizable guarantees for neural networks trained by gradient descent.
method Proxy convexity and proxy Polyak-Lojasiewicz inequalities.
result Unified guarantees for neural networks trained by gradient descent.
When data analysts train a classifier and check if its accuracy is significantly different from chance, they are implicitly performing a two-sample test. We investigate the statistical properties of this flexible approach in the high-dimensional setting. We prove two results that hold for all classifiers in any dimensi…
Alternative proof of weak solutions to mean curvature flow using minimizing movements.
problem Existence of weak solutions to mean curvature flow and volume preserving mean curvature flow.
method Proposes a new existence proof using a minimizing movements scheme and a novel proxy for distance.
result Unconditional convergence towards a De Giorgi solution for the minimizing movements scheme.
Estimates disease prevalence using non-ignorable missing data in health surveys.
problem Estimating disease prevalence in non-representative samples with non-ignorable missing data.
method Connects auxiliary proxy variable framework to label shift setting, uses high-dimensional covariates without generative models.
result Fails to account for non-ignorable missingness can lead to significant misestimations.
Study semi-supervised learning with noisy proxy covariates, deriving bounds and showing gains.
problem Learning from noisy proxy covariates with scarce labels.
method Two-stage estimator learning kernel eigenfeatures from all proxy covariates and fitting a ridge predictor on labeled data.
result Finite sample bounds show fast labeled sample rates and consistent gains over supervised and semi-supervised baselines.
DFPV improves PCL for confounded bandit policy evaluation.
problem Estimating causal effects in confounded settings with high-dimensional data.
method Deep feature proxy variable method (DFPV) for high-dimensional, nonlinear relationships.
result DFPV outperforms state-of-the-art methods on synthetic benchmarks and confounded bandit problems.
A framework uses proxies to prioritize treatment without estimating causal effects.
problem Prioritizing treatment when causal effects are hard to estimate.
method Decision-focused framework identifying conditions for proxy usefulness.
result Proxies can recover correct effect ordering under specific conditions.
New method recovers latent confounders from high-dimensional proxy variables.
problem Detecting latent confounders from high-dimensional proxy variables.
method Proxy Confounder Factorization (PCF) framework using ICA-PCF and GD-PCF.
result ICA-PCF recovers confounders with high correlation and low error in synthetic and real-world data.
Single proxy variable helps estimate causal effects from confounders.
problem Estimating causal effects from treatment to outcome when unobserved confounders are present.
method Assumes a single, potentially multi-dimensional proxy variable of the unobserved confounder and a known mechanism generating the proxy from the confounder. Proves causal effects are identifiable under completeness assumption.
result Causal effects are identifiable under SPICE assumption.
A scalable method for deep metric learning using chance constraints.
problem Improving deep metric learning by addressing feasibility issues.
method Relating DML to chance constraints, reformulating as a feasibility problem, and iteratively training proxies.
result The method effectively improves deep metric learning performance across multiple benchmarks.
Develops methods to improve demand counterfactuals from imperfect proxies.
problem Imperfect proxies in demand models lead to biased counterfactuals and invalid inference.
method Practical toolkit for market-level and individual data, requiring minimal computation.
result Improves substitution prediction and counterfactual performance.
New method handles many noisy proxy controls for causal inference.
problem Causal inference with many noisy proxy controls and unknown confounders.
method Linear models with rank-restricted and sparse nuisance parameters, penalization methods.
result Estimators achieve better performance in high dimensions, especially with many proxies.
Predicting delayed outcomes is an important problem in recommender systems (e.g., if customers will finish reading an ebook). We formalize the problem as an adversarial, delayed online learning problem and consider how a proxy for the delayed outcome (e.g., if customers read a third of the book in 24 hours) can help mi…
A machine learning model may exhibit discrimination when used to make decisions involving people. One potential cause for such outcomes is that the model uses a statistical proxy for a protected demographic attribute. In this paper we formulate a definition of proxy use for the setting of linear regression and present …
New conditions show proxy data can improve policy learning in sparse expert data contexts.
problem Improving sample complexity of policy learning with sparse expert data.
method Sufficient conditions for proxy data to improve sample complexity, adaptable to LLMs.
result Provable improvement in sample complexity for policy learning with proxy data.
A new probabilistic approach improves deep metric learning by considering image uncertainties and class-specific variances.
problem Proxy-based deep metric learning struggles with image uncertainties and class-specific structures.
method Introduces non-isotropic probabilistic proxy-based deep metric learning using directional von Mises-Fisher distributions.
result Improves generalization performance and competitive on standard benchmarks.
Paper uses SSL models' uncertainty to predict audio quality efficiently.
problem Efficiently predicting audio quality in low-resource settings.
method Leverages self-supervised learning models' uncertainty measures.
result Uncertainty measures correlate with MOS scores in SSL models.