arXiv research

Model uses LLM features to predict stock returns effectively.

Optimal option portfolios under Sharpe Ratio maximization with skew-elliptical t-distributed returns

Study analyzes impact of concentrated liquidity on trading fees and provider returns.

The paper models stock returns using $q$-Gaussians and negative binomials.

The paper analyzes elicitability of return risk measures and their scoring functions.

Stock correlations is crucial to asset pricing, investor decision-making, and financial risk regulations. However, microscopic explanation based on agent-based modeling is still lacking. We here propose a model derived from minority game for modeling stock correlations, in which an agent's expected return for one stock…

In an asset return series there is a conditional asymmetric dependence between current return and past volatility depending on the current return's sign. To take into account the conditional asymmetry, we introduce new models for asset return dynamics in which frequencies of the up and down movements of asset price hav…

Study on stock market volatility and return dispersion during COVID-19.

The paper examines the Chinese market reaction to the ADR issue by comparing returns and their stochastic variances of the Chinese firms cross-listed in the U.S. stock market. First, It was implemented capital asset pricing model (CAPM) to determine expected returns A and N shares. The CAPM provided with a methodology …

Study introduces new methods to estimate equity and liability required rates of return.

We decompose, within an ARCH framework, the daily volatility of stocks into overnight and intra-day contributions. We find, as perhaps expected, that the overnight and intra-day returns behave completely differently. For example, while past intra-day returns affect equally the future intra-day and overnight volatilitie…

Here, we provide a supplementary material for Takayuki Osogami, "Uncorrected least-squares temporal difference with lambda-return," which appears in {\it Proceedings of the 34th AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence} (AAAI-20).

Uniswap V3 requires more decisions from liquidity providers, making it complex and risky.

The paper proposes a new approach to portfolio selection that maximizes diversification and return.

This paper builds a model of high-frequency equity returns by separately modeling the dynamics of trade-time returns and trade arrivals. Our main contributions are threefold. First, we characterize the distributional behavior of high-frequency asset returns both in ordinary clock time and in trade time. We show that wh…

Funds inflate their returns due to price pressure, leading to wealth reallocation and market crashes.

Study news networks to predict stock returns.

Paper introduces EEMs for pricing contingent claim returns.

FLAIR measures LP competitiveness in AMMs, improving LP performance evaluations.

We investigate the probability distribution of the return intervals $τ$ between successive 1-min volatilities of two Chinese indices exceeding a certain threshold $q$. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) tests show that the two indices exhibit multiscaling behavior in the distribution of $τ$, which follows a stretched exponent…

Modeling financial returns as conditionally independent random variables explains power-law tails.

Stock prices are known to exhibit non-Gaussian dynamics, and there is much interest in understanding the origin of this behavior. Here, we present a model that explains the shape and scaling of the distribution of intraday stock price fluctuations (called intraday returns) and verify the model using a large database fo…

Machine learning improves portfolio allocation between index and risk-free assets.

In this paper we derive the exact solution of the multi-period portfolio choice problem for an exponential utility function under return predictability. It is assumed that the asset returns depend on predictable variables and that the joint random process of the asset returns and the predictable variables follow a vect…

Model approximates market prices and returns without prior market dynamics.

Researchers have used many different methods to detect the possibility of long-term dependence (long memory) in stock market returns, but evidence is in general mixed. In this paper, three different tests, (namely Rescaled Range (R/S), its modified form, and the semi-parametric method (GPH)), in addition to a new appro…

In this paper we provide compelling evidence of cyclical mean reversion and multiperiod stock return predictability over horizons of about 30 years with a half-life of about 15 years. This implies that the US stock market follows a long-term rhythm where a period of above average returns tends to be followed by a perio…

Study shows negative stock returns after Moroccan companies issue profit warnings.

This paper applies quantum probability theory to model asset returns, avoiding assumptions about quantum effects.

We consider the tail probabilities of stock returns for a general class of stochastic volatility models. In these models, the stochastic differential equation for volatility is autonomous, time-homogeneous and dependent on only a finite number of dimensional parameters. Three bounds on the high-volatility limits of the…

Quantum walks model financial returns with flexibility and asymmetry.

Deep neural networks improve portfolio construction by jointly modeling returns and risks.

Accumulated stock returns exhibit tempered skew t-distribution.

The paper models financial returns data with measurement error.

Python models predict stock sentiment for market-beating returns.

Deep learning models improve stock market portfolio returns.

In informationally efficient financial markets, option prices and this implied volatility should immediately be adjusted to new information that arrives along with a jump in underlying's return, whereas gradual changes in implied volatility would indicate market inefficiency. Using minute-by-minute data on S&P 500 inde…

A concept of martingale-fair index of return, consistent with Arbitrage Free Pricing Theory, is introduced. An explicit formula for the average rate of return of a group of investment/pension funds in a discrete time stochastic model is derived and several properties of this index are shown. In particular, it is proven…

Using a rolling windows analysis of filtered and aligned stock index returns from 40 countries during the period 2006-2014, we construct Granger causality networks and investigate the ensuing structure of the relationships by studying network properties and fitting spatial probit models. We provide evidence that stock …

Geometrically convex return risk measures on AM-algebras

Study resolves the Korean LVRP puzzle by showing HVRP exists but is masked by investor heterogeneity and improper intensity normalization.

MB-DQN uses different backup lengths for improved reinforcement learning.

New methods improve uncertainty in machine learning predictions for asset returns.

Study compares various non-Gaussian models for financial returns.

The question of optimal portfolio is addressed. The conventional Markowitz portfolio optimisation is discussed and the shortcomings due to non-Gaussian security returns are outlined. A method is proposed to minimise the likelihood of extreme non-Gaussian drawdowns of the portfolio value. The theory is called Leptokurti…

We prove that Student's t-distribution provides one of the better fits to returns of S&P component stocks and the generalized inverse gamma distribution best fits VIX and VXO volatility data. We further argue that a more accurate measure of the volatility may be possible based on the fact that stock returns can be unde…

We review the dynamics of the returns of Leveraged Exchange Traded Funds (LETFs) and propose a new measure of realized volatility: Shortfall from Maximum Convexity. We show that SMC has a more intuitive interpretation and provides more statistical information compared to the traditionally used sample standard deviation…

A detailed analysis of correlation between stock returns at high frequency is compared with simple models of random walks. We focus in particular on the dependence of correlations on time scales - the so-called Epps effect. This provides a characterization of stochastic models of stock price returns which is appropriat…