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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,742 papers · 148 categories

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219437656874 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for Prophet algorithm

When will a server fail catastrophically in an industrial datacenter? Is it possible to forecast these failures so preventive actions can be taken to increase the reliability of a datacenter? To answer these questions, we have studied what are probably the largest, publicly available datacenter traces, containing more …

2017-08-14abs ↗pdf ↗

Study noisy rewards in online decision-making with unknown distributions.

problem Learning optimal decisions in online settings with noisy and unknown reward distributions.
method Proposes algorithms integrating learning and decision-making via LCB thresholding.
result Achieves competitive ratios of 1 - 1/e and 1/2 in various settings.

This study enhances sales forecasts by integrating market indicators into forecasting models.

problem Traditional forecasting models rely solely on historical demand data.
method Automated integration of macroeconomic time series data (GDP growth) into forecasting models using feature selection methods.
result Feature selection methods, especially Forward Feature Selection, significantly improve forecasting accuracy.

Prophet predicts device qualities for FL to reduce training latency.

problem Bad candidate-selection leads to large training and reporting latency in FL.
method Each device predicts its own training and reporting phases using LSTM. The algorithm is implemented with DRL.
result The proposed approach outperforms reactive algorithms in real-world experiments.

Interpretable additive models outperform complex DL and hybrid pipelines for air quality forecasting.

problem Accurate forecasting of urban air pollution for public health and policy guidance.
method Investigated lightweight additive models (FBP, NP) vs. deep learning and hybrid pipelines on Beijing PM2.5 and PM10 data.
result Facebook Prophet consistently outperformed NeuralProphet and traditional models, achieving high R2R^2 values.

Paper presents forecasting models for platelet demand.

problem Managing platelet demand and supply is challenging due to variability and short shelf life.
method Utilized ARIMA, Prophet, lasso regression, and LSTM networks on a clinical dataset.
result Multivariate approaches generally have higher accuracy, but simpler ARIMA can suffice with sufficient data.

Improved electrical load forecasting model using Fourier-enhanced RNN.

problem Electrical load time series downscaling with high accuracy and low error.
method Combines recurrent neural network with Fourier seasonal embeddings and self-attention.
result Significantly reduces RMSE across different time horizons compared to existing methods.

The paper compares advanced deep learning models for Indian stock price forecasting.

problem Complexity of stock price forecasting due to numerous influencing factors.
method Utilizes historical data from national banks in India, combines deep learning models and sentiment analysis.
result Achieved higher accuracy in stock price forecasting compared to traditional methods.

New method combines simple forecasting techniques for river flow predictions.

problem Improving accuracy of long-term hydrological forecasts.
method Combines at least two forecasting methods using median combiner.
result Performs well in long-term forecasts, especially with multiple methods.

Examines algorithmic modeling across three cultures.

problem Tackles algorithmic modeling in different cultural contexts.
method Uses parametric regressions, interpretable algorithms, and complex algorithms.
result Extension of Leo Breiman's thesis to include cultural differences.

Playing repeated matrix games (RMG) while maximizing the cumulative returns is a basic method to evaluate multi-agent learning (MAL) algorithms. Previous work has shown that UCBUCB, M3M3, SS or Exp3Exp3 algorithms have good behaviours on average in RMG. Besides, hedging algorithms have been shown to be effective on predi…

2018-10-15abs ↗pdf ↗

Meta-algorithm selection aims to choose the best algorithm selector for a given problem instance.

problem Selecting the best algorithm selector for a specific problem instance.
method Apply algorithm selection to the selection of other algorithms (meta-algorithm selection).
result Meta-algorithm selection can be beneficial in some cases but faces challenges in solving the meta-level problem.

Combines multiple bandit algorithms to create a nearly optimal single algorithm.

problem Designing a single bandit algorithm that performs nearly as well as the best individual algorithm in a stochastic environment.
method Develops two general corralling algorithms that achieve favorable regret guarantees.
result The regret of the corralling algorithms is no worse than the best individual algorithm's performance.

The exchange algorithm is studied for its convergence and asymptotic variance.

problem Theoretical limitations of the exchange algorithm in sampling from doubly-intractable distributions.
method Theoretical analysis of the exchange algorithm's convergence speed and asymptotic variance.
result The exchange algorithm converges at a geometric rate and satisfies a Central Limit Theorem.

Improves algorithm selection for thousands of candidates using dyadic features.

problem Selecting the best algorithm from a large set of candidates for specific problems.
method Proposes extreme algorithm selection (XAS) with dyadic feature representation.
result Improves significantly over current state of the art in various metrics.

Algorithm design is a laborious process and often requires many iterations of ideation and validation. In this paper, we explore automating algorithm design and present a method to learn an optimization algorithm, which we believe to be the first method that can automatically discover a better algorithm. We approach th…

2016-06-06abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper proposes a reinforcement learning framework for efficient hyper-parameter tuning of stochastic optimization algorithms.

problem Efficient tuning of hyper-parameters for stochastic optimization algorithms.
method Modeling hyper-parameter tuning as a Markov decision process and using policy gradient algorithms.
result The proposed framework significantly reduces the time required for hyper-parameter tuning compared to Bayesian optimization.

New algorithms reduce bilevel optimization complexity to ε^(-1.5).

problem Efficiently solving bilevel optimization problems in machine learning.
method Proposed two new algorithms: one using momentum-based recursive iterations, the other using recursive gradient estimations.
result Achieved computational complexity of ε^(-1.5), significantly faster than previous methods.

Researchers analyze how algorithmic and implementation choices affect RL performance.

problem Difficulty in separating algorithmic and implementation differences in RL performance.
method Unified derivations through a single control-as-inference objective, categorizing algorithms as EM or KL minimization.
result Implementation details are co-adapted with algorithmic choices, some transferable across algorithms.

Study on selecting between base algorithms in stochastic bandit problems.

problem Model selection in stochastic environments with contextual information.
method Developed a meta-algorithm-base algorithm abstraction with a smoothing transformation for optimal O(T)O(\sqrt{T}) guarantees.
result Optimal O(T)O(\sqrt{T}) model selection guarantees for stochastic contextual bandit problems.

New bounds derived for KG algorithm's performance in finite time.

problem Best arm identification problem in multi-armed bandit.
method Theoretical analysis of finite-time performance, deriving bounds for sample allocation, error probability, and regret.
result Upper and lower bounds for the probability of error and simple regret of the KG algorithm.

Paper proves linear convergence of SCMS algorithm for directional data.

problem Identifying density ridges in directional data.
method Generalized SCMS algorithm to directional data, derived from SCGA with adaptive step size.
result Linear convergence of the proposed directional SCMS algorithm.

MLE and CVE are equivalent under exponential families, leading to faster and more stable EM algorithms.

problem Finding maximum likelihood estimators (MLE) efficiently and stably.
method Proved equivalence between MLE and CVE under exponential families, leading to an EM algorithm.
result EM algorithm achieves the same asymptotic variance as MLE and is faster and more stable.

The goal of data-driven algorithm design is to obtain high-performing algorithms for specific application domains using machine learning and data. Across many fields in AI, science, and engineering, practitioners will often fix a family of parameterized algorithms and then optimize those parameters to obtain good perfo…

2019-04-18abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper examines how algorithmic classification affects behavior and proposes democratizing stakes to mitigate predatory practices.

problem The impact of algorithmic classification on individual behavior and fairness in decision-making processes.
method Characterization of optimal classification by an algorithm designer and analysis of the effect of democratizing stakes.
result Optimal classification can lead to surprising behavior patterns, and democratizing stakes can mitigate predatory practices.

Run2Survive uses survival analysis for algorithm selection, outperforming traditional methods.

problem Handling censored runtime data in algorithm selection.
method Decision-theoretic approach leveraging survival analysis for censored data.
result Run2Survive outperforms state-of-the-art AS approaches in experiments.