This paper synthesizes and analyzes some important current and recent contributions to the theory of the firm under uncertainty. In so doing, it examines the production and hedging decisions of the competitive firm under a single source and multiple sources of uncertainty.
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48 results for “Production uncertainty”
QUAM improves uncertainty quantification in deep learning models.
problem Estimating epistemic uncertainty in deep learning models.
method QUAM identifies regions with high divergence between predictions and a reference model.
result QUAM has lower approximation error of epistemic uncertainty compared to previous methods.
Bayesian networks improve product risk assessment by handling uncertainty and causality.
problem Limited handling of uncertainty and inability to incorporate causal explanations in existing methods.
method Bayesian Networks (BNs) for improved systematic product risk assessment.
result BN approach provides more powerful and flexible risk assessments.
Study on coskewness under varying dependence uncertainty.
problem Impact of dependence uncertainty on coskewness.
method Explicit bounds and numerical approximation for product expectation; introduction of standardized rank coskewness.
result Introduced standardized rank coskewness as a measure invariant under transformations.
Paper improves uncertainty estimation in LLM-as-a-judge systems.
problem Improving uncertainty estimation in LLM-as-a-judge frameworks.
method Generalised probabilistic modelling and improved uncertainty estimates.
result Proposed uncertainty estimates significantly improve system efficiency.
Model equilibrium price in intraday electricity markets with uncertainty.
problem Formulate equilibrium model for intraday electricity trading with balancing constraints and uncertainty.
method Develop equilibrium model with agents' balancing constraints, forecasted consumption, production uncertainties, and Markov chain outages.
result Existence and uniqueness of equilibrium price as a martingale, with insights into price formation and impact of uncertainty.
Uncertainty Estimation in Deep Neural Networks for Point Cloud Segmentation in Factory Planningcs.CV
Bayesian neural networks improve uncertainty estimation in 3D point cloud segmentation for factory planning.
problem Improving uncertainty estimation in 3D point cloud segmentation for factory planning.
method Proposed fully Bayesian and approximate Bayesian neural networks for point cloud segmentation.
result Superior model performance and improved segmentation results with uncertainty incorporation.
Extends insurance-finance arbitrage concept to include model uncertainty.
problem Evaluating hybrid insurance products in uncertain financial markets.
method Introduces robust asymptotic insurance-finance arbitrage and -evaluations.
result No robust asymptotic insurance-finance arbitrage exists under certain conditions.
Investment decision triggered by a convex curve in a two-factor uncertainty model.
problem Optimal irreversible investment in a company with two products whose prices follow geometric Brownian motions.
method Two-dimensional optimal stopping problem, nonlinear integral equation, convex curve characterization.
result Optimal investment decision is characterized by a convex curve, unique solution to a nonlinear integral equation.
Novel numerical scheme for G-heat equation with uncertainty.
problem Efficiently quantify G-expectation for financial products.
method Proposes a novel numerical scheme for the two-dimensional G-heat equation.
result The scheme is monotonic, stable, and convergent, showing high efficiency.
Embeddings in machine learning are low-dimensional representations of complex input patterns, with the property that simple geometric operations like Euclidean distances and dot products can be used for classification and comparison tasks. The proposed meta-embeddings are special embeddings that live in more general in…
Paper proposes a method to quantify and explain machine learning uncertainty in predictive process monitoring.
problem Neglect of data-driven estimation, point forecasts without model uncertainty, and lack of explanations.
method Quantile Regression Forests for interval predictions and SHapley Additive Explanations for uncertainty.
result Effective handling of model uncertainty in predictive process monitoring.
A novel double-space tensor-product RKHS framework for hybrid uncertainty sensitivity analysis.
problem Quantifying the influence of hybrid aleatory and epistemic uncertainties on high-dimensional system responses.
method A novel double-space tensor-product RKHS framework for sensitivity analysis under hybrid uncertainty.
result Concurrent double Möbius inversion orthogonally decomposes global dependence measure into pure aleatory effects, pure epistemic effects, and their interaction contributions.
The paper evaluates joint life insurance risk under dependence uncertainty using copulas and convex risk measures.
problem Evaluating risk of joint life insurance products under uncertainty in dependence structure.
method Monotonicity of risk evaluation with concordance order, linear programming for bounds, and numerical analysis.
result Bounds for mean, Value-at-Risk, and Expected Shortfall computed using linear programs.
Cleaner Production in Optimized Multivariate Networks: Operations Management through a Roll of Diceq-fin.GN
The importance of supply chain management in analyzing and later catalyzing economic expectations while simultaneously prioritizing cleaner production aspects is a vital component of modern finance. Such predictions, though, are often known to be less than accurate due to the ubiquitous uncertainty plaguing most busine…
SOLBP extends efficient inference to uncertain Bayesian networks.
problem Inference in uncertain Bayesian networks with second-order probabilities.
method Extends Loopy Belief Propagation to second-order Bayesian networks.
result Generates inferences consistent with sum-product networks, more efficient and scalable.
Dynamic pricing learns demand model from sparse product networks.
problem Minimizing revenue loss in a large network of products with unknown demand parameters.
method Combines optimism-in-the-face-of-uncertainty and PAC-Bayesian approaches.
result Achieves asymptotically optimal performance in terms of network size and time horizon.
uMoE trains NNs with uncertain data by embedding uncertainty into training.
problem Managing aleatoric uncertainty in NN-based predictive models.
method Divide and Conquer strategy, Expert components, Gating Unit.
result uMoE outperforms baseline methods in uncertainty management.
Risk Advisor predicts and mitigates ML deployment failures.
problem Predicting and mitigating test-time failure risks of ML systems.
method Post-hoc meta-learner for estimating failure risks and uncertainties.
result Reliably predicts deployment-time failure risks across various ML models.
Neural Network Gaussian Process Considering Input Uncertainty for Composite Structures Assemblystat.ML
Model predicts composite structures assembly quality with input uncertainty.
problem Accurate prediction of dimensional deviations and residual stress in composite structures assembly.
method Neural Network Gaussian Process considering input uncertainty.
result NNGPIU model outperforms other methods for nonsmooth, nonlinear responses.
New method explains predictive uncertainty by focusing on second-order effects.
problem Explaining predictive uncertainty in machine learning models.
method CovLRP, CovGI, etc., based on second-order effects.
result Predictive uncertainty is dominated by second-order effects.
Deep learning techniques have been shown to be extremely effective for various classification and regression problems, but quantifying the uncertainty of their predictions and separating them into the epistemic and aleatoric fractions is still considered challenging. In oil and gas exploration projects, tools consistin…
Supply chains are the backbone of the global economy. Disruptions to them can be costly. Centrally managed supply chains invest in ensuring their resilience. Decentralized supply chains, however, must rely upon the self-interest of their individual components to maintain the resilience of the entire chain. We examine t…
Combination of distributional regression algorithms improves uncertainty estimation of satellite precipitation products.
problem Uncertainty estimation in satellite precipitation products.
method Ensemble learning methods combining conditional zero-adjusted probability distributions estimated with GAMLSS, spline-based GAMLSS, and distributional regression forests.
result Stacking of methods outperformed individual methods in most quantile levels using the quantile loss function.
New GP-based method improves uncertainty quantification for causal functions.
problem Challenges in quantifying uncertainty for causal effects, especially for entire functions.
method GP-based approach using inner-product of observational functions in RKHS, with tractable posterior moments and calibration.
result Improves uncertainty quantification while maintaining causal effect estimation performance.
While biomanufacturing plays a significant role in supporting the economy and ensuring public health, it faces critical challenges, including complexity, high variability, lengthy lead time, and very limited process data, especially for personalized new cell and gene biotherapeutics. Driven by these challenges, we prop…
New method calibrates Gaussian product experts for better predictions.
problem Erratic predictions and uncalibrated uncertainty in Gaussian product experts.
method Calibration via tempered softmax and Wasserstein barycenter for predictions.
result Improved predictions with better mean and uncertainty quantification.
Proposes new priors for neural networks to improve generalization and uncertainty.
problem Improving generalization and uncertainty estimation in neural networks.
method Exploits scalable and structured posteriors as priors with generalization guarantees.
result Improves generalization and uncertainty estimation with non-vacuous bounds.
Soil moisture is an important variable that determines floods, vegetation health, agriculture productivity, and land surface feedbacks to the atmosphere, etc. Accurately modeling soil moisture has important implications in both weather and climate models. The recently available satellite-based observations give us a un…
Robust forecast framework reduces distribution error by 63%.
problem Accurate distribution forecast for planning decisions.
method Backtest-based bootstrap and adaptive residual selection.
result Reduces Absolute Coverage Error by more than 63%.
Paper predicts high-frequency futures return directions using mean-uncertainty methods.
problem Data imbalance in short-term price movements of futures markets.
method Employed mean-uncertainty logistic regression and support vector machines under sublinear expectation framework.
result Mean-uncertainty approaches outperform conventional methods in classification metrics and average returns.
VGE provides a practical approach to uncertainty estimation in ensemble models.
problem Uncertainty estimation in ensemble models using additive decomposition breaks down.
method Variance-Gated Ensembles (VGE) introduces a differentiable framework with a signal-to-noise gate.
result VGE provides a Variance-Gated Margin Uncertainty (VGMU) score and Variance-Gated Normalization (VGN) layer.
Dirichlet uncertainty wrappers for actionable algorithm accuracy accountability and auditabilitycs.LG
Nowadays, the use of machine learning models is becoming a utility in many applications. Companies deliver pre-trained models encapsulated as application programming interfaces (APIs) that developers combine with third party components and their own models and data to create complex data products to solve specific prob…
Study asset pricing under model uncertainty with discrete time and states.
problem Asset pricing under model uncertainty with discrete time and states.
method Novel definition of arbitrage, investigation of no-arbitrage conditions, expansion to multi-period securities model.
result Necessary and sufficient conditions for no-arbitrage asset pricing under model uncertainty.
Low redispatch prices boost green hydrogen production cost, encouraging electrolyzer siting.
problem Uncertainty in redispatch power availability and its impact on green hydrogen production cost.
method Historic redispatch time series analysis and power purchase scenarios evaluation.
result Low price levels can lead to notable production cost reductions, incentivizing electrolyzer siting.
Develops a method for probabilistic simulation of renewable energy production at grid scale.
problem Uncertainty in short-term electricity generation from renewable assets.
method Probabilistic framework with asset calibration, hierarchical clustering, and Gaussianization.
result Full uncertainty quantification at asset and collection levels.
Uncertainty relations and fluctuation theorems for Bayes netscond-mat.stat-mech
Recent research has considered the stochastic thermodynamics of multiple interacting systems, representing the overall system as a Bayes net. I derive fluctuation theorems governing the entropy production (EP)of arbitrary sets of the systems in such a Bayes net. I also derive ``conditional'' fluctuation theorems, gover…
Testing under what conditions the product satisfies the desired properties is a fundamental problem in manufacturing industry. If the condition and the property are respectively regarded as the input and the output of a black-box function, this task can be interpreted as the problem called Level Set Estimation (LSE) --…
SGPA calibrates transformer uncertainty for safety-critical tasks.
problem Uncertainty estimation in transformer models for safety-critical domains.
method Bayesian inference in transformer's output space using sparse Gaussian processes.
result SGPA-based Transformers improve in-distribution calibration and out-of-distribution robustness.
A method constructs a stochastic surrogate from dimensionality reduction results for high-dimensional uncertainty quantification.
problem High-dimensional uncertainty quantification with physics-based models.
method Constructs a stochastic surrogate model from dimensionality reduction results.
result Preserves convenience of sequential dimensionality reduction and Gaussian process regression while overcoming limitations.
This paper presents first steps toward robust models for crisis prediction. We conduct a horse race of conventional statistical methods and more recent machine learning methods as early-warning models. As individual models are in the literature most often built in isolation of other methods, the exercise is of high rel…
Optimization of piecewise smooth shapes under uncertainty using the example of Navier-Stokes flowmath.OC
Optimizes shapes in uncertain Navier-Stokes flow problems.
problem Optimizing shapes with geometric constraints and physical uncertainty.
method Multi-shape calculus and stochastic augmented Lagrangian method.
result Successfully optimized shapes in uncertain Navier-Stokes flow.
New method quantifies uncertainty in distributed regression.
problem Large datasets make traditional regression techniques ineffective.
method Data-driven approach to uncertainty quantification for averaged estimator.
result Rigorous theoretical guarantees for sup-norm consistency.
Proposes UICR to improve novelty in recommendation systems without sacrificing relevance.
problem Balancing relevance and novelty in recommendation systems is challenging, especially for long-tail items.
method Introduces uncertainty modeling in the matching stage and multi-task modeling of model and index uncertainty.
result Improves novelty without sacrificing relevance, as shown by experimental results and online A/B tests.
New loss function handles uncertain constraints in CSLO problems.
problem Handling uncertain inequality constraints in CSLO with machine learning predictions.
method Introduces SPO-RC loss and SPO-RC+ surrogate, trains on truncated datasets, corrects bias.
result SPO-RC+ effectively manages constraint uncertainty and improves performance.
The grid integration of intermittent Renewable Energy Sources (RES) causes costs for grid operators due to forecast uncertainty and the resulting production schedule mismatches. These so-called profile service costs are marginal cost components and can be understood as an insurance fee against RES production schedule u…
Framework for transferring discount curve estimates across fixed-income product classes.
problem Challenges in estimating discount curves from sparse or noisy data.
method Proposes a vector-valued kernel ridge regression (KR) framework with economic regularization.
result Transfer learning tightens confidence intervals and improves extrapolation performance.
Models assess how USDA orange production forecasts impact FCOJ market decisions.
problem High volatility in FCOJ futures due to limited U.S. orange production.
method Developed models to assess the impact of USDA October orange production forecasts on FCOJ market participants.
result Probabilistic forecasts of USDA production forecast error can reduce FCOJ price volatility.