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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,695 papers · 148 categories

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143286428571 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for Probably Approximately Correct

The study analyzes group testing algorithms for identifying defective items with high confidence.

problem Identifying defective items from a population using group testing with high confidence.
method Formulated as a function learning problem using the PAC framework, analyzed three algorithms: column matching, combinatorial basis pursuit, and definite defectives.
result Derived bounds on the number of tests needed for approximate set identification, comparing with existing bounds and simulating performance.

New algorithm FLUTE achieves uniform-PAC convergence in RL with linear approx.

problem RL with linear function approximation lacks uniform-PAC guarantees.
method FLUTE algorithm with minimax value function estimator and multi-level partition scheme.
result Uniform-PAC convergence to optimal policy with high probability.

We propose and analyze an alternate approach to off-policy multi-step temporal difference learning, in which off-policy returns are corrected with the current Q-function in terms of rewards, rather than with the target policy in terms of transition probabilities. We prove that such approximate corrections are sufficien…

2016-02-16abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper analyzes the sample complexities for policy evaluation with linear function approximation.

problem Policy evaluation with linear function approximation in discounted infinite horizon Markov decision processes.
method Investigates sample complexities for two policy evaluation algorithms: TD and TDC.
result Establishes high-probability sample complexity bounds for policy evaluation algorithms.

We present a formal proof in Lean of probably approximately correct (PAC) learnability of the concept class of decision stumps. This classic result in machine learning theory derives a bound on error probabilities for a simple type of classifier. Though such a proof appears simple on paper, analytic and measure-theoret…

2019-11-01abs ↗pdf ↗

Efficient algorithm approximates discrete random variables with minimal Kolmogorov distance.

problem Estimating the probability of missing deadlines in series-parallel schedules.
method An efficient algorithm that computes a random variable with minimal Kolmogorov distance to a given discrete random variable.
result The algorithm efficiently approximates the probability of missing deadlines with minimal Kolmogorov distance.

The paper improves PCS approximation for ranking and selection under limited simulation budgets.

problem Improving finite sample performance in Ranking and Selection.
method Develops a Bahadur-Rao type expansion for PCS, proposes a novel FCBA policy.
result FCBA policy achieves superior PCS performance compared to traditional methods.

We propose a novel neural sequence prediction method based on \textit{error-correcting output codes} that avoids exact softmax normalization and allows for a tradeoff between speed and performance. Instead of minimizing measures between the predicted probability distribution and true distribution, we use error-correcti…

2019-01-21abs ↗pdf ↗

Boosted decision trees typically yield good accuracy, precision, and ROC area. However, because the outputs from boosting are not well calibrated posterior probabilities, boosting yields poor squared error and cross-entropy. We empirically demonstrate why AdaBoost predicts distorted probabilities and examine three cali…

2012-07-04abs ↗pdf ↗

Develops a theory to make learning solutions fair and safe.

problem Ensuring learning solutions are unbiased and safe in critical applications.
method Generates a generalization theory based on PAC learning framework, introduces constrained learning algorithm.
result Proves that constrained learning is as learnable as unconstrained learning, provides practical algorithm.

We introduce a technique to compute probably approximately correct (PAC) bounds on precision and recall for matching algorithms. The bounds require some verified matches, but those matches may be used to develop the algorithms. The bounds can be applied to network reconciliation or entity resolution algorithms, which i…

2014-10-31abs ↗pdf ↗

The proliferation of models for networks raises challenging problems of model selection: the data are sparse and globally dependent, and models are typically high-dimensional and have large numbers of latent variables. Together, these issues mean that the usual model-selection criteria do not work properly for networks…

2012-07-17abs ↗pdf ↗

Exact Bayesian inference for discrete models using probability generating functions.

problem Discrete statistical models with infinite support and continuous priors.
method Probabilistic programming language with automatic differentiation and probability generating functions.
result Genfer tool provides exact solutions for a wide range of inference problems.

Sig-PCA integrates model outputs and observations to correct model biases.

problem Improving model accuracy and reliability by correcting biases and numerical approximations.
method Sig-PCA framework that combines summary statistics from model outputs with localized observations via a neural network.
result Corrects model outputs to align closely with observational data, preserving essential statistical information.

Boosting variational inference (BVI) approximates an intractable probability density by iteratively building up a mixture of simple component distributions one at a time, using techniques from sparse convex optimization to provide both computational scalability and approximation error guarantees. But the guarantees hav…

2019-06-04abs ↗pdf ↗

Study finds the minimum number of finite Gaussian mixtures for best approximation.

problem Finding the minimum number of finite Gaussian mixtures for best approximation.
method Local moment matching for upper bound and spectral analysis for lower bound.
result Corrects a previous lower bound in the case of Gaussian mixing distributions.

UCPO improves diversity in reinforcement learning models, maintaining high accuracy.

problem RLVR objectives often lead to diversity collapse, reducing coverage of correct solutions.
method UCPO adds a conditional uniformity penalty to GRPO, redistributing probability mass.
result UCPO improves Pass@K and diversity while maintaining competitive Pass@1 accuracy.

Confidence intervals improve evaluation of binary prediction rules in data mining.

problem Uncertainty in performance measures estimation from finite datasets.
method Asymptotic normal approximations for confidence intervals, with a blurring correction.
result Improved finite sample coverage probabilities and general performance measures inference.

The paper corrects bias in fluid approximation for better decision-making in stochastic optimization.

problem Bias introduced by using mean values in fluid approximation leads to suboptimal decisions.
method Identifying a decision-corrected point estimate that yields optimal decisions.
result A corrected point estimate exists under certain conditions and can be computed algorithmically.

PPI uses predictions and weighting to infer from partially labeled data.

problem Valid inference with partially labeled data.
method Combines model-based predictions with bias correction from labeled data, using Horvitz-Thompson and Hájek corrections.
result IPW-adjusted PPI with estimated propensities performs similarly to known-probability case.

Large language models can't efficiently reason conditionally in a distribution-free setting.

problem Impossibility of conditional PAC-efficient reasoning in large language models.
method Proof of impossibility in a distribution-free setting for non-atomic input spaces.
result Any algorithm achieving conditional PAC efficiency must defer to the expert model with high probability.

Study bond market making with hit-ratio target using optimal control and HJB equations.

problem Optimizing bond market making with hit-ratio target in OTC markets.
method Stochastic optimal control approach, dualizing hit-ratio target, HJB equation, Riccati equation, linearization.
result Explicit quote decompositions into riskless spread, inventory-risk correction, and hit-ratio correction.

Enhances predictive performance in Bayesian deep learning via generalized Laplace approximation.

problem Inconsistency in Bayesian deep learning.
method Interprets posterior tempering as a correction for model misspecification and recalibration of priors. Introduces generalized Laplace approximation.
result Generalized Laplace approximation enhances predictive performance.

A neural framework corrects bias in estimating individual treatment effects.

problem Estimating individual treatment effects from observational data.
method An anchored neural architecture and precision-corrected intersection-bound inference.
result Corrected bias and maintained nominal coverage in high-dimensional settings.

The paper studies efficient simulation methods for financial firm values under fast mean-reverting volatility.

problem Estimating the probability of firm default under fast mean-reverting stochastic volatility models.
method Approximations using ergodic averages and central limit theorem corrections for efficient simulation.
result Accuracy of approximations assessed through numerical simulation and payoff function estimation.

Continuous state spaces and stochastic, switching dynamics characterize a number of rich, realworld domains, such as robot navigation across varying terrain. We describe a reinforcementlearning algorithm for learning in these domains and prove for certain environments the algorithm is probably approximately correct wit…

2012-06-13abs ↗pdf ↗

New algorithm radVI improves variational inference by optimizing radial profiles.

problem Gaussian approximations often fail to capture the radial profile of complex distributions.
method Optimizes over radial profiles in variational inference, providing theoretical guarantees.
result Theoretical convergence guarantees for radVI, improving over existing VI methods.