Survey on learning Boolean functions in computational theory.
problem Learning Boolean function classes in computational theory.
method Overview of known results in PAC and related models.
result Discussion of various learning results for Boolean functions.
Method curates cost-effective, high-quality datasets using AI models.
problem Costly manual labeling of datasets.
method Probably Approximately Correct Labels (PACL) method.
result Curates high-quality datasets with low overall labeling error.
PACC Discovery improves causal inference from limited data.
problem Inferring causal relationships from finite data.
method Extends PAC learning principles to causal inference.
result Theoretical guarantees for various causal methods.
Submodular function maximization finds application in a variety of real-world decision-making problems. However, most existing methods, based on greedy maximization, assume it is computationally feasible to evaluate F, the function being maximized. Unfortunately, in many realistic settings F is too expensive to evaluat…
The study analyzes group testing algorithms for identifying defective items with high confidence.
problem Identifying defective items from a population using group testing with high confidence.
method Formulated as a function learning problem using the PAC framework, analyzed three algorithms: column matching, combinatorial basis pursuit, and definite defectives.
result Derived bounds on the number of tests needed for approximate set identification, comparing with existing bounds and simulating performance.
New algorithm FLUTE achieves uniform-PAC convergence in RL with linear approx.
problem RL with linear function approximation lacks uniform-PAC guarantees.
method FLUTE algorithm with minimax value function estimator and multi-level partition scheme.
result Uniform-PAC convergence to optimal policy with high probability.
We propose and analyze an alternate approach to off-policy multi-step temporal difference learning, in which off-policy returns are corrected with the current Q-function in terms of rewards, rather than with the target policy in terms of transition probabilities. We prove that such approximate corrections are sufficien…
The paper analyzes the sample complexities for policy evaluation with linear function approximation.
problem Policy evaluation with linear function approximation in discounted infinite horizon Markov decision processes.
method Investigates sample complexities for two policy evaluation algorithms: TD and TDC.
result Establishes high-probability sample complexity bounds for policy evaluation algorithms.
We present a formal proof in Lean of probably approximately correct (PAC) learnability of the concept class of decision stumps. This classic result in machine learning theory derives a bound on error probabilities for a simple type of classifier. Though such a proof appears simple on paper, analytic and measure-theoret…
In this paper, the problem of one-bit compressed sensing (OBCS) is formulated as a problem in probably approximately correct (PAC) learning. It is shown that the Vapnik-Chervonenkis (VC-) dimension of the set of half-spaces in Rn generated by k-sparse vectors is bounded below by klg(n/k) and above by…
Efficient algorithm approximates discrete random variables with minimal Kolmogorov distance.
problem Estimating the probability of missing deadlines in series-parallel schedules.
method An efficient algorithm that computes a random variable with minimal Kolmogorov distance to a given discrete random variable.
result The algorithm efficiently approximates the probability of missing deadlines with minimal Kolmogorov distance.
Sequence probability predicts correctness in LLMs, but not for repeated prompts
problem Predicting correctness in large language models
method Quantifying sequence probability and correctness across different levels
result Higher sequence probability often predicts correctness across prompt-answer pairs
The paper improves PCS approximation for ranking and selection under limited simulation budgets.
problem Improving finite sample performance in Ranking and Selection.
method Develops a Bahadur-Rao type expansion for PCS, proposes a novel FCBA policy.
result FCBA policy achieves superior PCS performance compared to traditional methods.
New method corrects bias in stochastic gradient samplers.
problem Bias in stochastic gradient samplers.
method Gradient-Guided Monte Carlo with stochastic gradients.
result Corrected sampler yields nonzero acceptance probabilities.
New method improves sampling from score-based models by correcting bias.
problem Bias in sampling from score-based diffusion models.
method Metropolis-Hastings or Barker's accept-reject steps to correct bias, using the score function.
result Improves sample quality on synthetic and image datasets, yielding consistent gains in FID.
Expectation Propagation (EP) provides a framework for approximate inference. When the model under consideration is over a latent Gaussian field, with the approximation being Gaussian, we show how these approximations can systematically be corrected. A perturbative expansion is made of the exact but intractable correcti…
We propose a novel neural sequence prediction method based on \textit{error-correcting output codes} that avoids exact softmax normalization and allows for a tradeoff between speed and performance. Instead of minimizing measures between the predicted probability distribution and true distribution, we use error-correcti…
Boosted decision trees typically yield good accuracy, precision, and ROC area. However, because the outputs from boosting are not well calibrated posterior probabilities, boosting yields poor squared error and cross-entropy. We empirically demonstrate why AdaBoost predicts distorted probabilities and examine three cali…
Develops a theory to make learning solutions fair and safe.
problem Ensuring learning solutions are unbiased and safe in critical applications.
method Generates a generalization theory based on PAC learning framework, introduces constrained learning algorithm.
result Proves that constrained learning is as learnable as unconstrained learning, provides practical algorithm.
We introduce a technique to compute probably approximately correct (PAC) bounds on precision and recall for matching algorithms. The bounds require some verified matches, but those matches may be used to develop the algorithms. The bounds can be applied to network reconciliation or entity resolution algorithms, which i…
The proliferation of models for networks raises challenging problems of model selection: the data are sparse and globally dependent, and models are typically high-dimensional and have large numbers of latent variables. Together, these issues mean that the usual model-selection criteria do not work properly for networks…
Exact Bayesian inference for discrete models using probability generating functions.
problem Discrete statistical models with infinite support and continuous priors.
method Probabilistic programming language with automatic differentiation and probability generating functions.
result Genfer tool provides exact solutions for a wide range of inference problems.
Sig-PCA integrates model outputs and observations to correct model biases.
problem Improving model accuracy and reliability by correcting biases and numerical approximations.
method Sig-PCA framework that combines summary statistics from model outputs with localized observations via a neural network.
result Corrects model outputs to align closely with observational data, preserving essential statistical information.
Correction for Error estimates for binomial approximations of game options [math.PR/0607123]
Boosting variational inference (BVI) approximates an intractable probability density by iteratively building up a mixture of simple component distributions one at a time, using techniques from sparse convex optimization to provide both computational scalability and approximation error guarantees. But the guarantees hav…
Midicoth compresses online probability estimates by correcting prior smoothing biases.
problem Compression inefficiency due to prior smoothing in adaptive models.
method Micro-diffusion denoising applied in a bitwise tree hierarchy.
result Significant compression improvement with reliable calibration.
Study finds the minimum number of finite Gaussian mixtures for best approximation.
problem Finding the minimum number of finite Gaussian mixtures for best approximation.
method Local moment matching for upper bound and spectral analysis for lower bound.
result Corrects a previous lower bound in the case of Gaussian mixing distributions.
UCPO improves diversity in reinforcement learning models, maintaining high accuracy.
problem RLVR objectives often lead to diversity collapse, reducing coverage of correct solutions.
method UCPO adds a conditional uniformity penalty to GRPO, redistributing probability mass.
result UCPO improves Pass@K and diversity while maintaining competitive Pass@1 accuracy.
Formulates a Dueling Bandits problem for eliciting Kemeny rankings.
problem Eliciting preferences to find a Kemeny ranking.
method Formulates the problem as a Dueling Bandits problem, considering sampling with and without replacement.
result Approximation bounds and algorithms for finding PAC solutions with sample complexity.
Confidence intervals improve evaluation of binary prediction rules in data mining.
problem Uncertainty in performance measures estimation from finite datasets.
method Asymptotic normal approximations for confidence intervals, with a blurring correction.
result Improved finite sample coverage probabilities and general performance measures inference.
MaxEnt Model Correction improves reinforcement learning model accuracy.
problem Improving reinforcement learning model accuracy and convergence.
method MaxEnt Model Correction (MoCo) procedure to correct model's next-state distributions.
result MoCoVI and MoCoDyna algorithms converge faster and effectively use approximate models.
First, we consider the problem of hedging in complete binomial models. Using the discrete-time Föllmer-Schweizer decomposition, we demonstrate the equivalence of the backward induction and sequential regression approaches. Second, in incomplete trinomial models, we examine the extension of the sequential regression app…
The paper corrects bias in fluid approximation for better decision-making in stochastic optimization.
problem Bias introduced by using mean values in fluid approximation leads to suboptimal decisions.
method Identifying a decision-corrected point estimate that yields optimal decisions.
result A corrected point estimate exists under certain conditions and can be computed algorithmically.
Paper tackles SCOD problem with optimal strategy and empirical validation.
problem Designing reliable prediction models abstaining from uncertain predictions.
method Bayes classifier for ID data and stochastic linear selector in 2D space.
result POSCOD method outperforms existing OOD methods.
PPI uses predictions and weighting to infer from partially labeled data.
problem Valid inference with partially labeled data.
method Combines model-based predictions with bias correction from labeled data, using Horvitz-Thompson and Hájek corrections.
result IPW-adjusted PPI with estimated propensities performs similarly to known-probability case.
LOT Wassmap speeds up Wasserstein space manifold learning.
problem Finding low-dimensional structures in Wasserstein space datasets.
method Linearized optimal transport and approximation schemes.
result LOT Wassmap provides accurate embeddings with computational efficiency.
Large language models can't efficiently reason conditionally in a distribution-free setting.
problem Impossibility of conditional PAC-efficient reasoning in large language models.
method Proof of impossibility in a distribution-free setting for non-atomic input spaces.
result Any algorithm achieving conditional PAC efficiency must defer to the expert model with high probability.
Study bond market making with hit-ratio target using optimal control and HJB equations.
problem Optimizing bond market making with hit-ratio target in OTC markets.
method Stochastic optimal control approach, dualizing hit-ratio target, HJB equation, Riccati equation, linearization.
result Explicit quote decompositions into riskless spread, inventory-risk correction, and hit-ratio correction.
Statistical performance bounds for reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms can be critical for high-stakes applications like healthcare. This paper introduces a new framework for theoretically measuring the performance of such algorithms called Uniform-PAC, which is a strengthening of the classical Probably Approximatel…
Enhances predictive performance in Bayesian deep learning via generalized Laplace approximation.
problem Inconsistency in Bayesian deep learning.
method Interprets posterior tempering as a correction for model misspecification and recalibration of priors. Introduces generalized Laplace approximation.
result Generalized Laplace approximation enhances predictive performance.
A neural framework corrects bias in estimating individual treatment effects.
problem Estimating individual treatment effects from observational data.
method An anchored neural architecture and precision-corrected intersection-bound inference.
result Corrected bias and maintained nominal coverage in high-dimensional settings.
Bayesian Networks (BNs) are useful tools giving a natural and compact representation of joint probability distributions. In many applications one needs to learn a Bayesian Network (BN) from data. In this context, it is important to understand the number of samples needed in order to guarantee a successful learning. Pre…
Improved error correction using neural networks and belief propagation.
problem Inference in factor graphs with loops or poor approximations.
method Hybrid model combining FG-GNN and belief propagation.
result Hybrid model outperforms belief propagation in error correction tasks.
The paper studies efficient simulation methods for financial firm values under fast mean-reverting volatility.
problem Estimating the probability of firm default under fast mean-reverting stochastic volatility models.
method Approximations using ergodic averages and central limit theorem corrections for efficient simulation.
result Accuracy of approximations assessed through numerical simulation and payoff function estimation.
A new L2D system produces calibrated probabilities of expert correctness without sacrificing accuracy.
problem Calibration of learning to defer systems for safety.
method One-vs-all classifiers with a consistent surrogate loss function.
result Proposes a calibrated L2D system that outperforms existing methods in accuracy and calibration.
Continuous state spaces and stochastic, switching dynamics characterize a number of rich, realworld domains, such as robot navigation across varying terrain. We describe a reinforcementlearning algorithm for learning in these domains and prove for certain environments the algorithm is probably approximately correct wit…
New algorithm radVI improves variational inference by optimizing radial profiles.
problem Gaussian approximations often fail to capture the radial profile of complex distributions.
method Optimizes over radial profiles in variational inference, providing theoretical guarantees.
result Theoretical convergence guarantees for radVI, improving over existing VI methods.
Corrects errors in ILA for Bayesian inference in LGMs.
problem Error in ILA for non-Gaussian likelihoods in LGMs.
method Importance sampling scheme to correct ILA errors.
result Corrected posterior converges to the true posterior with increased samples.