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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,695 papers · 148 categories

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2.6%5.1%7.7%10.3% · Feb 201219922001200920172026
48 results for Probability simplex

Proposes an accuracy-preserving calibration method for DNNs.

problem Calibration of deep neural networks (DNNs) to measure prediction reliability.
method Uses Concrete distribution on the probability simplex to calibrate DNNs without accuracy loss.
result The proposed method outperforms previous methods in accuracy-preserving calibration tasks.

On the probability simplex, we can consider the standard information geometric structure with the e- and m-affine connections mutually dual with respect to the Fisher metric. The geometry naturally defines submanifolds simultaneously autoparallel for the both affine connections, which we call {\em doubly autoparallel s…

2017-11-30abs ↗pdf ↗

Study optimal transport on simplex boundary, proving transport map and potential regularity.

problem Regularity of transport map and potential on simplex boundary.
method Boundary regularity results for optimal transport maps, exploiting simplex symmetries.
result Regularity properties of transport map and its convex potential.

New framework estimates staged tree models using hierarchical clustering on the probability simplex.

problem Estimating staged tree models with context-specific dependencies.
method Hierarchical clustering on the probability simplex, using simplex-based divergences and linkage methods.
result Total Variation divergence with Ward.D2 linkage produces staged trees with better model fit, structure recovery, and computational efficiency.

Introduces a new geometric framework for probability distributions.

problem Developing a geometric framework for probability distributions.
method Introduces p\ell^p-information geometry and defines the 2\ell^2-probability simplex via the qq-root transform.
result Defines a noncanonical differentiable structure and qq-root map as an isometry.

CAST predicts distribution-valued time series by stabilizing and transporting simplex-supported successors.

problem Forecasting distribution-valued time series with structural failure modes.
method CAST (Causal Anchored Simplex Transport) uses successors retrieved from causal context, stabilized with a persistence anchor, and locally transported on ordered supports.
result CAST outperforms baselines on eleven public and simulated benchmarks, achieving best average rank on both one-step KL and autoregressive rollout JSD.

We describe a Groebner basis of relations among conditional probabilities in a discrete probability space, with any set of conditioned-upon events. They may be specialized to the partially-observed random variable case, the purely conditional case, and other special cases. We also investigate the connection to generali…

2008-08-08abs ↗pdf ↗

Investigates VaR behavior for sums of one-sided random variables, showing impossibilities and conditions for super-additivity.

problem Investigates the behavior of Value-at-Risk (VaR) for sums of one-sided random variables.
method Analyzes the extremal aggregation behavior of VaR, introduces structural conditions for super-additivity.
result Characterizes when VaR is fully super-additive and provides unified framework for various dependence structures.

Geometry-aware KDE model improves multiclass quantification.

problem Accurately estimating class prevalence for label shift adaptation.
method Log-ratio representations and Aitchison geometry for compositional data, shrinkage regularization.
result Competitive with state-of-the-art quantifiers, often improving over standard KDE-based baselines.

Stochastic gradient Markov chain Monte Carlo (SGMCMC) has become a popular method for scalable Bayesian inference. These methods are based on sampling a discrete-time approximation to a continuous time process, such as the Langevin diffusion. When applied to distributions defined on a constrained space the time-discret…

2018-06-19abs ↗pdf ↗

We consider three different approaches to define natural Riemannian metrics on polytopes of stochastic matrices. First, we define a natural class of stochastic maps between these polytopes and give a metric characterization of Chentsov type in terms of invariance with respect to these maps. Second, we consider the Fish…

2014-04-01abs ↗pdf ↗

We introduce a new distance metric for non-linear embeddings of Tempered Exponential Measures.

problem Non-linear embeddings of Tempered Exponential Measures (TEMs).
method Parameterization of finite discrete TEMs via Legendre functions, introducing tempered Hilbert co-simplex distance.
result Established a generalization of the Hilbert log cross-ratio simplex distance to a tempered Hilbert co-simplex distance.

We construct a new distribution for the simplex using the Kumaraswamy distribution and an ordered stick-breaking process. We explore and develop the theoretical properties of this new distribution and prove that it exhibits symmetry under the same conditions as the well-known Dirichlet. Like the Dirichlet, the new dist…

2019-05-28abs ↗pdf ↗

Spaces of convex and concave functions appear naturally in theory and applications. For example, convex regression and log-concave density estimation are important topics in nonparametric statistics. In stochastic portfolio theory, concave functions on the unit simplex measure the concentration of capital, and their gr…

2019-10-30abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper triangulates Heisenberg groups with horizontal and straight simplexes.

problem Triangulating Heisenberg groups with specific regularity properties.
method Constructing triangulations with horizontal and straight simplexes on a polyhedral structure and extending to the whole Heisenberg group.
result Explicit examples of grid and triangulations provided.

Proposes a new matrix factorization model for interval-valued matrices.

problem Matrix factorization for matrices with entries in a given interval.
method Bounded simplex-structured matrix factorization (BSSMF) with fast algorithm for missing data.
result BSSMF provides a unique decomposition under certain conditions.

Improved convergence rates for saddle-point optimization algorithms.

problem Understanding last-iterate convergence rates for saddle-point optimization algorithms in constrained settings.
method Expanding the understanding of last-iterate convergence for Optimistic Gradient Descent Ascent (OGDA) and Optimistic Multiplicative Weights Update (OMWU) in the constrained setting.
result Linear last-iterate convergence achieved with a universal constant learning rate for OMWU in bilinear games over the simplex.

The paper explores geometric calculations on probability manifolds derived from master equations.

problem Understanding geometric properties of probability manifolds from master equations.
method Deriving geometric quantities like Levi-Civita connection, gradient, Hessian, parallel transport, and curvatures on probability manifolds.
result Calculation of geometric quantities in probability manifolds, including curvatures and connections.

Researchers use LLMs to judge other LLMs, but this study provides a new geometric perspective to understand when it works.

problem The challenge of evaluating LLMs using other LLMs as judges, considering both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties.
method A geometric perspective on ranking LLM candidates using probability simplices, analyzing conditions for identifiable rankings and designing Bayesian priors.
result Geometric analysis reveals that rankings based on LLM judges are robust in many but not all datasets, emphasizing the importance of modeling epistemic uncertainty.

The Bezier simplex fitting is a novel data modeling technique which exploits geometric structures of data to approximate the Pareto front of multi-objective optimization problems. There are two fitting methods based on different sampling strategies. The inductive skeleton fitting employs a stratified subsampling from e…

2019-06-17abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper finds sample complexity for learning high-dimensional simplices from noisy data.

problem Learning high-dimensional simplices from noisy samples.
method Combines sample compression, high-dimensional geometry, and Fourier analysis.
result Proves sample complexity bound for achieving a simplex within a certain distance from the true simplex.

We propose a new topic modeling procedure that takes advantage of the fact that the Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) log likelihood function is asymptotically equivalent to the logarithm of the volume of the topic simplex. This allows topic modeling to be reformulated as finding the probability simplex that minimizes …

2019-04-03abs ↗pdf ↗

A hyperbolic 3-simplex reflection group is a Coxeter group arising as a lattice in the isometry group of hyperbolic 3-space, with fundamental domain a geodesic simplex (possibly with some ideal vertices). The classification of these groups is known, and there are exactly 9 cocompact examples, and 23 non-cocompact examp…

2007-05-07abs ↗pdf ↗

We introduce the non-pure versions of simplicial balls and spheres with minimum number of vertices. These are a special type of non-homogeneous balls and spheres (NH-balls and NH-spheres) satisfying a minimality condition on the number of maximal simplices. The main result is that minimal NH-balls and NH-spheres are pr…

2014-06-25abs ↗pdf ↗

A new method normalizes flow mixtures for better inference across different data types.

problem Inference failure across diverse posterior geometries in normalizing flows.
method Introduces a two-stage framework with a stable global weighting mechanism based on sEMA.
result Achieves consistent NLL improvements and stable weight trajectories over baselines.

In 1973, J. Cheeger and J. Simons raised the following question that still remains open and is known as the Rational Simplex Problem: Given a geodesic simplex in the spherical 3-space so that all of its interior dihedral angles are rational multiples of ππ, is it true that its volume is a rational multiple of the volu…

2013-04-28abs ↗pdf ↗

Introduces new geometric framework for probability densities on manifolds.

problem Developing a new geometric framework for probability densities on manifolds.
method Introduces p\ell^p-information geometry and defines 2\ell^2-probability simplex with qq-root transform.
result Explicit solution of gradient flow and geodesic completeness of ee-connection.

A novel approach to computing barycenters on graph-supported probability measures.

problem Computing weighted averages of measures on graphs.
method Dynamic optimal transport formulation on the simplex, gradient descent on the probability simplex.
result Intrinsic gradient descent provides a coherent framework for synthesizing and analyzing measures on graphs.

Improved regret bounds for adversarial linear contextual bandits.

problem Adversarial linear contextual bandits with changing loss functions.
method Truncated continuous exponential weights algorithm over the probability simplex, analyzing with linear bandit setting without contexts.
result Second-order bound of ildeO(KdVT) ilde O(K\sqrt{d V_T}) and first-order bound of ildeO(KdLT) ilde O(K\sqrt{d L_T^*}).