This research focuses on invariant probabilistic predictions, showing they are not robust under distribution shifts.
problem The challenge of creating robust probabilistic predictions that remain consistent under distribution shifts.
method A causality-inspired framework to investigate invariance and robustness of probabilistic predictions with respect to proper scoring rules.
result Arbitrary distribution shifts do not admit invariant and robust probabilistic predictions, unlike point predictions.
Geometric approach improves probabilistic robustness in neural networks.
problem Widespread lack of robustness in deep neural networks to adversarial examples.
method Geometric view on Probabilistically Robust Learning (PRL) and introduction of new perimeters.
result Existence of solutions and properties of modified PRL models.
FedGVI improves FL robustness to model misspecification.
problem Limited robustness in FL approaches to model misspecification.
method Probabilistic Federated Learning framework that generalizes previous methods.
result FedGVI provides robust and calibrated predictions under model misspecification.
Efficiently certifies global robustness of large neural networks with probabilistic guarantees.
problem Certifying robustness of large neural networks in a scalable and efficient manner.
method Sampling an ε-net and invoking a local robustness oracle.
result Certifies a probabilistic relaxation of robustness efficiently and globally.
Neural networks are becoming increasingly prevalent in software, and it is therefore important to be able to verify their behavior. Because verifying the correctness of neural networks is extremely challenging, it is common to focus on the verification of other properties of these systems. One important property, in pa…
With deep neural networks providing state-of-the-art machine learning models for numerous machine learning tasks, quantifying the robustness of these models has become an important area of research. However, most of the research literature merely focuses on the \textit{worst-case} setting where the input of the neural …
Probabilistic STNs improve image classification and robustness.
problem Training and robustness issues in STNs.
method Probabilistic extension of STNs that estimates stochastic transformations.
result Improved classification performance, robustness, and model calibration.
PRoA assesses deep learning robustness against practical functional perturbations.
problem Inadequate practical robustness verification methods for deep learning systems.
method Probabilistic robustness assessment based on adaptive concentration.
result Statistical guarantees on probabilistic robustness against functional perturbations.
Paper introduces Prob-SSI for robust OMA in noisy data.
problem Challenges in estimating modal parameters from noisy data.
method Probabilistic formulation of SSI, robust Prob-SSI algorithm.
result Robust Prob-SSI outperforms conventional SSI in corrupted data.
New metrics improve probabilistic forecasting, especially for rare events.
problem Current evaluation frameworks for probabilistic forecasting assume independence and lack sensitivity to tail events.
method Proposed signature kernel-based metrics: Sig-MMD and CSig-MMD.
result These metrics capture complex dependencies and prioritize tail event prediction.
COLEP improves robustness of conformal prediction via probabilistic circuits.
problem Adversarial perturbations can undermine the coverage guarantees of conformal prediction.
method COLEP uses probabilistic circuits to learn and reason about different semantic concepts, providing certifiable coverage guarantees.
result COLEP achieves higher prediction coverage and accuracy than a single model, especially with non-trivial knowledge models.
This paper improves conformal prediction to be robust to perturbations.
problem Ensuring robustness of conformal prediction to natural and adversarial perturbations.
method Probabilistically robust conformal prediction (PRCP) and its adaptive version (aPRCP).
result aPRCP achieves better trade-offs between nominal performance and robustness.
We introduce a probabilistic robustness measure for Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs), defined as the probability that, given a test point, there exists a point within a bounded set such that the BNN prediction differs between the two. Such a measure can be used, for instance, to quantify the probability of the existence…
Proposes MVG-CRPS for robust multivariate forecasting.
problem Outliers in multivariate forecasting lead to significant errors.
method Integrates CRPS for MVG distributions, optimizing with MVG-CRPS.
result Improves robustness, accuracy, and uncertainty quantification.
A new neural network model MDRBM improves noise-robustness in classification.
problem Improving noise-robustness in classification problems.
method Stacking a probabilistic-ELM layer on a discriminative restricted Boltzmann machine (DRBM).
result MDRBM outperforms other models, especially in noise-robustness.
Enhanced route planning with probabilistic prediction and uncertainty sets.
problem Improving route planning reliability under uncertainty.
method CQR-GAE model integrating conformal prediction and uncertainty sets.
result Significantly outperforms baseline methods in real-world traffic scenarios.
We introduce an approximate search algorithm for fast maximum a posteriori probability estimation in probabilistic programs, which we call Bayesian ascent Monte Carlo (BaMC). Probabilistic programs represent probabilistic models with varying number of mutually dependent finite, countable, and continuous random variable…
This paper improves PPCA robustness using t-distributions.
problem Improving robustness of probabilistic PCA.
method Using multivariate t-distributions and a hierarchical model. result Clarified the correct correspondence between the multivariate t-PPCA framework and the hierarchical model. New framework uses conformal predictions for robust, scalable machine learning classification.
problem Developing robust and reliable machine learning models for classification.
method Introducing scalable classifiers linked to statistical order theory and probabilistic learning theory, defining a score function and conformal safety set.
result Demonstrated practical implications in cybersecurity for identifying DNS tunneling attacks.
Adversarial attacks on probabilistic state-space models affect latent state and policy decisions.
problem Robust reinforcement learning under adversarial observability.
method Analyzing adversarial attacks on linear probabilistic state-space models.
result Demonstrating the influence of adversarial observations on latent state and policy decisions.
Study introduces TeMoP model for better stock market predictions.
problem Decreasing prediction errors and robustness across datasets in machine learning models.
method Probabilistic multiple lag order model based on trend encoding.
result TeMoP model outperforms machine learning models in accuracy and stability across different stock indexes.
Probabilistic models analyze data by relying on a set of assumptions. Data that exhibit deviations from these assumptions can undermine inference and prediction quality. Robust models offer protection against mismatch between a model's assumptions and reality. We propose a way to systematically detect and mitigate mism…
Improved robust latent variable estimation for neural dynamics.
problem Inconsistent results due to noise and nonlinearity in existing models.
method Probabilistic approach to latent variable estimation in decomposed models.
result More accurate latent variable inference in nonlinear systems with diverse noise conditions.
The PARAFAC2 is a multimodal factor analysis model suitable for analyzing multi-way data when one of the modes has incomparable observation units, for example because of differences in signal sampling or batch sizes. A fully probabilistic treatment of the PARAFAC2 is desirable in order to improve robustness to noise an…
New solver avoids memory issues for long differential equations.
problem Memory constraints in adaptive probabilistic ODE solvers.
method Fixed memory demands adaptive probabilistic solver using robust state estimation.
result Eliminates memory issues for long time series simulations.
We propose a robust estimator to improve maximum likelihood in probabilistic models.
problem Overfitting and sensitivity to noise in maximum likelihood estimation.
method Distributionally robust maximum likelihood estimator that minimizes worst-case expected log-loss.
result The robust estimator is statistically consistent and performs well in regression and classification tasks.
We consider the problem of optimal risk sharing in a pool of cooperative agents. We analyze the asymptotic behavior of the certainty equivalents and risk premia associated with the Pareto optimal risk sharing contract as the pool expands. We first study this problem under expected utility preferences with an objectivel…
PRAE identifies outliers and reconstructs inliers in autoencoders.
problem Accurately identifying anomalies in data.
method Probabilistic Robust AutoEncoder (PRAE) approach.
result PRAE effectively removes outliers and reconstructs inliers.
Capsule models enforce object pose relationships for robustness, explored with probabilistic generative and variational methods.
problem Enforcing object pose relationships for robustness to viewpoint changes.
method Probabilistic generative model with variational bound, exploring capsule assumptions and inference mechanisms.
result Unified objective and test time optimisation demonstrated for capsule models.
Proposes DGCN with trajectory sampling for data-efficient policy search in MBRL.
problem Improving data efficiency in model-based reinforcement learning.
method Combines trajectory sampling and DGCN for uncertainty propagation in probabilistic world models.
result Improves sample-efficiency over other uncertainty propagation methods and probabilistic models.
Proposes a probabilistic model to improve hydrology predictions and trust.
problem Noisy or missing basin characteristics impact streamflow prediction.
method Probabilistic inverse modeling framework to reconstruct basin characteristics.
result 6% improvement in R2 for streamflow prediction, 17% reduction in uncertainty. New model detects anomalies without needing clean data.
problem Anomaly detection without clean data.
method Robust denoising diffusion probabilistic models (RDDPM) using robust regression.
result Significantly outperforms existing methods in anomaly segmentation.
Despite their numerous successes, there are many scenarios where adversarial risk metrics do not provide an appropriate measure of robustness. For example, test-time perturbations may occur in a probabilistic manner rather than being generated by an explicit adversary, while the poor train--test generalization of adver…
Understanding and modeling human driver behavior is crucial for advanced vehicle development. However, unique driving styles, inconsistent behavior, and complex decision processes render it a challenging task, and existing approaches often lack variability or robustness. To approach this problem, we propose Probabilist…
State-space models (SSMs) are a highly expressive model class for learning patterns in time series data and for system identification. Deterministic versions of SSMs (e.g. LSTMs) proved extremely successful in modeling complex time series data. Fully probabilistic SSMs, however, are often found hard to train, even for …
This short note highlights some links between two lines of research within the emerging topic of trustworthy machine learning: differential privacy and robustness to adversarial examples. By abstracting the definitions of both notions, we show that they build upon the same theoretical ground and hence results obtained …
A new attack for probabilistic classifiers adapts to noise levels.
problem Adversarial examples can mislead probabilistic classifiers.
method Adapts HopSkipJump attack for probabilistic classifiers, adjusting queries based on noise levels.
result Decision-based attacks are effective against probabilistic classifiers, even with noise.
We present a probabilistic viewpoint to multiple kernel learning unifying well-known regularised risk approaches and recent advances in approximate Bayesian inference relaxations. The framework proposes a general objective function suitable for regression, robust regression and classification that is lower bound of the…
Proposes CCE to assess point-wise reliability of neural network predictions.
problem Overconfidence and misaligned predictive distributions in neural networks.
method Introduces Conditional Congruence (CCE) metric using conditional kernel mean embeddings.
result CCE exhibits correctness, monotonicity, reliability, and robustness in high-dimensional regression tasks.
ProbRes calibrates probabilistic forecasts by learning volatility dynamics.
problem Quantifying risk and uncertainty in time series forecasting.
method ProbRes learns conditional mean and volatility separately, generating well-calibrated prediction intervals.
result ProbRes accurately captures predictive distributions and produces well-calibrated prediction intervals.
Proposes a new framework for balancing average- and worst-case performance in machine learning.
problem Robustness issues in machine learning, especially in safety-critical domains.
method Probabilistic robustness framework that balances average- and worst-case performance.
result Effective algorithm balances average- and worst-case performance with lower computational cost.
Study efficient interactive learning for structured outputs with reliable computation.
problem Interactive learning with noisy labels and structured output spaces.
method Identify and utilize CRISPs (probabilistic models) that guarantee reliable and efficient computation of probabilistic quantities.
result CRISPs enable robust and efficient active and skeptical learning in large structured output spaces.
Type inference refers to the task of inferring the data type of a given column of data. Current approaches often fail when data contains missing data and anomalies, which are found commonly in real-world data sets. In this paper, we propose ptype, a probabilistic robust type inference method that allows us to detect su…
Classical clustering algorithms typically either lack an underlying probability framework to make them predictive or focus on parameter estimation rather than defining and minimizing a notion of error. Recent work addresses these issues by developing a probabilistic framework based on the theory of random labeled point…
Notwithstanding the popularity of conventional clustering algorithms such as K-means and probabilistic clustering, their clustering results are sensitive to the presence of outliers in the data. Even a few outliers can compromise the ability of these algorithms to identify meaningful hidden structures rendering their o…
Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is a popular tool for dimensionality reduction and feature extraction in data analysis. There is a probabilistic version of PCA, known as Probabilistic PCA (PPCA). However, standard PCA and PPCA are not robust, as they are sensitive to outliers. To alleviate this problem, this paper i…
Robust Bayesian models are appealing alternatives to standard models, providing protection from data that contains outliers or other departures from the model assumptions. Historically, robust models were mostly developed on a case-by-case basis; examples include robust linear regression, robust mixture models, and bur…
Probabilistic representations of movement primitives open important new possibilities for machine learning in robotics. These representations are able to capture the variability of the demonstrations from a teacher as a probability distribution over trajectories, providing a sensible region of exploration and the abili…