This paper introduces the probabilistic module interface, which allows encapsulation of complex probabilistic models with latent variables alongside custom stochastic approximate inference machinery, and provides a platform-agnostic abstraction barrier separating the model internals from the host probabilistic inferenc…
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48 results for “Probabilistic inference”
Improves probabilistic programming by analyzing program structure.
problem Inefficiency and limitations of single inference algorithms in probabilistic programming.
method Three novel techniques: static and dynamic analyses to adapt programs for more efficient inference.
result Improves probabilistic programming by making inference more efficient.
Paper introduces md-vtrees for efficient probabilistic and causal inference.
problem Efficient inference in complex probabilistic models.
method Introduces md-vtrees to generalize tractability conditions for advanced inference queries.
result Derives first polytime algorithms for causal inference queries.
We introduce the notion of a stochastic probabilistic program and present a reference implementation of a probabilistic programming facility supporting specification of stochastic probabilistic programs and inference in them. Stochastic probabilistic programs allow straightforward specification and efficient inference …
Recent advances in statistical inference have significantly expanded the toolbox of probabilistic modeling. Historically, probabilistic modeling has been constrained to (i) very restricted model classes where exact or approximate probabilistic inference were feasible, and (ii) small or medium-sized data sets which fit …
Probabilistic programming allows specification of probabilistic models in a declarative manner. Recently, several new software systems and languages for probabilistic programming have been developed on the basis of newly developed and improved methods for approximate inference in probabilistic models. In this contribut…
Probabilistic models can handle causal inference without special tools.
problem Confusion over necessary tools for causal inference.
method Demonstrated through concrete examples that causal questions can be answered using standard probabilistic models.
result Causal questions can be addressed using standard probabilistic modelling and inference.
We present a new algorithm for approximate inference in probabilistic programs, based on a stochastic gradient for variational programs. This method is efficient without restrictions on the probabilistic program; it is particularly practical for distributions which are not analytically tractable, including highly struc…
New method for efficient probabilistic inference using masked language modeling.
problem Efficient posterior inference in probabilistic programs with many hyper-parameters.
method Formulate inference as masked language modeling, train a neural network to unmask random values.
result Foundation posterior for zero-shot inference and fine-tuning across a range of programs.
Probabilistic inference procedures are usually coded painstakingly from scratch, for each target model and each inference algorithm. We reduce this effort by generating inference procedures from models automatically. We make this code generation modular by decomposing inference algorithms into reusable program-to-progr…
We develop a technique for generalising from data in which models are samplers represented as program text. We establish encouraging empirical results that suggest that Markov chain Monte Carlo probabilistic programming inference techniques coupled with higher-order probabilistic programming languages are now sufficien…
SPPL simplifies probabilistic programming for exact inference.
problem Efficient exact inference in probabilistic models.
method SPPL translates probabilistic programs into sum-product expressions, leveraging new techniques for scalability.
result SPPL achieves up to 3500x speedups in exact inference.
Kernel Bayesian inference is a principled approach to nonparametric inference in probabilistic graphical models, where probabilistic relationships between variables are learned from data in a nonparametric manner. Various algorithms of kernel Bayesian inference have been developed by combining kernelized basic probabil…
d3p package enables efficient Bayesian inference with differential privacy.
problem Efficiently performing Bayesian inference under differential privacy constraints.
method Differentially private variational inference for flexible probabilistic models.
result Achieves significant speed-up in runtime for complex models.
We introduce a method for using deep neural networks to amortize the cost of inference in models from the family induced by universal probabilistic programming languages, establishing a framework that combines the strengths of probabilistic programming and deep learning methods. We call what we do "compilation of infer…
A-NeSI scales approximate inference for probabilistic neurosymbolic learning.
problem Combining neural networks with symbolic reasoning for scalable inference.
method A-NeSI: a new framework for PNL using neural networks for approximate inference.
result A-NeSI achieves scalable approximate inference without semantic changes.
Stein's method improves probabilistic inference and learning.
problem Improving probabilistic inference and learning methods.
method Constructing Stein discrepancies from Stein operators and Stein sets, discussing their properties.
result Connection between Stein operators and Stein variational gradient descent.
DMVI uses diffusion models for efficient probabilistic inference in PPLs.
problem Efficient probabilistic inference in complex probabilistic programming languages.
method DMVI employs diffusion models as variational approximations to the posterior distribution, optimizing a bound on the marginal likelihood.
result DMVI produces more accurate posterior inferences than existing methods in PPLs with similar computational cost and less manual tuning.
Probabilistic modeling is a powerful approach for analyzing empirical information. We describe Edward, a library for probabilistic modeling. Edward's design reflects an iterative process pioneered by George Box: build a model of a phenomenon, make inferences about the model given data, and criticize the model's fit to …
Develops inference combinators for probabilistic programs using neural networks.
problem Creating efficient proposals for probabilistic program inference.
method Inference combinators using neural network parameterization of proposals.
result Correct by construction variational methods tailored to specific models.
PSI models and infers feature attributions efficiently and accurately.
problem Modeling and inferring feature attributions in flexible predictive models.
method Probabilistic Shapley inference (PSI) framework using latent random variables and a masking-based neural network architecture.
result PSI learns feature attribution distributions centered at Shapley values, revealing meaningful uncertainty.
Probabilistic programs with mixed support (both continuous and discrete latent random variables) commonly appear in many probabilistic programming systems (PPSs). However, the existence of the discrete random variables prohibits many basic gradient-based inference engines, which makes the inference procedure on such mo…
We describe Venture, an interactive virtual machine for probabilistic programming that aims to be sufficiently expressive, extensible, and efficient for general-purpose use. Like Church, probabilistic models and inference problems in Venture are specified via a Turing-complete, higher-order probabilistic language desce…
Bayesian approach for policy search in stochastic domains.
problem Policy search in stochastic domains.
method Nested probabilistic programs, Lightweight Metropolis-Hastings (LMH) adaptation.
result Similar quality policies learned with simpler algorithm.
Hybrid Bayesian neural networks use function uncertainty for probabilistic inference.
problem Uncertainty in neural network weights is hard to specify and interpret.
method Integrates probabilistic layers with standard deterministic layers for function uncertainty.
result Improves probabilistic inference by encoding function uncertainty.
LIC compiles probabilistic models to generate efficient MCMC proposals.
problem Creating accurate Metropolis-Hastings proposals for Bayesian inference.
method Integrates probabilistic graphical models and neural networks in an open-source framework to optimize proposal distributions.
result LIC produces more efficient and robust MCMC proposals compared to existing methods.
It is time-consuming and error-prone to implement inference procedures for each new probabilistic model. Probabilistic programming addresses this problem by allowing a user to specify the model and having a compiler automatically generate an inference procedure for it. For this approach to be practical, it is important…
Proposes a deep probabilistic multi-view model for multi-view learning.
problem Learning from multiple related views with shared latent structure.
method Probabilistic Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) in latent space, deep generative networks, variational inference.
result Efficient variational inference approximates posterior distributions of latent multi-view layer.
Aiming at a comprehensive and concise tutorial survey, recap of variational inference and reinforcement learning with Probabilistic Graphical Models are given with detailed derivations. Reviews and comparisons on recent advances in deep reinforcement learning are made from various aspects. We offer detailed derivations…
Recent work used importance sampling ideas for better variational bounds on likelihoods. We clarify the applicability of these ideas to pure probabilistic inference, by showing the resulting Importance Weighted Variational Inference (IWVI) technique is an instance of augmented variational inference, thus identifying th…
Type inference refers to the task of inferring the data type of a given column of data. Current approaches often fail when data contains missing data and anomalies, which are found commonly in real-world data sets. In this paper, we propose ptype, a probabilistic robust type inference method that allows us to detect su…
Type system captures CI relationships for probabilistic models.
problem Challenges in inference for models with mixed discrete and continuous parameters.
method Information flow type system for probabilistic programming.
result Well-typed programs guarantee certain CI relationships.
We present a novel probabilistic programming framework that couples directly to existing large-scale simulators through a cross-platform probabilistic execution protocol, which allows general-purpose inference engines to record and control random number draws within simulators in a language-agnostic way. The execution …
We propose Edward, a Turing-complete probabilistic programming language. Edward defines two compositional representations---random variables and inference. By treating inference as a first class citizen, on a par with modeling, we show that probabilistic programming can be as flexible and computationally efficient as t…
Probabilistic programming aids in automatically dating ice cores, reducing manual error and uncertainty.
problem Automatically dating ice cores with high accuracy and capturing uncertainty.
method Probabilistic models and probabilistic programming for automatic inference.
result Demonstrated the use of probabilistic programming for ice core dating, showcasing its benefits and limitations.
We introduce and demonstrate a new approach to inference in expressive probabilistic programming languages based on particle Markov chain Monte Carlo. Our approach is simple to implement and easy to parallelize. It applies to Turing-complete probabilistic programming languages and supports accurate inference in models …
We introduce Dimple, a fully open-source API for probabilistic modeling. Dimple allows the user to specify probabilistic models in the form of graphical models, Bayesian networks, or factor graphs, and performs inference (by automatically deriving an inference engine from a variety of algorithms) on the model. Dimple a…
Approximate probabilistic inference algorithms are central to many fields. Examples include sequential Monte Carlo inference in robotics, variational inference in machine learning, and Markov chain Monte Carlo inference in statistics. A key problem faced by practitioners is measuring the accuracy of an approximate infe…
This book is a graduate-level introduction to probabilistic programming. It not only provides a thorough background for anyone wishing to use a probabilistic programming system, but also introduces the techniques needed to design and build these systems. It is aimed at people who have an undergraduate-level understandi…
We propose design guidelines for a probabilistic programming facility suitable for deployment as a part of a production software system. As a reference implementation, we introduce Infergo, a probabilistic programming facility for Go, a modern programming language of choice for server-side software development. We argu…
This work offers a broad perspective on probabilistic modeling and inference in light of recent advances in probabilistic programming, in which models are formally expressed in Turing-complete programming languages. We consider a typical workflow and how probabilistic programming languages can help to automate this wor…
A new probabilistic BTD method for tensor data.
problem Modeling higher-order tensors with robust inference.
method Probabilistic Block-Term Decomposition using variational Bayesian inference and von-Mises Fisher distribution.
result The proposed pBTD can quantify multi-linear structures robustly.
Guaranteed bounds for posterior inference in probabilistic programs.
problem Approximating the posterior distribution of probabilistic programs with provable correctness.
method Interval-based trace semantics, soundness and completeness proofs, weight-aware interval type system.
result Guaranteed bounds on the posterior distribution of probabilistic programs are computed and proven to be correct.
Capsule models enforce object pose relationships for robustness, explored with probabilistic generative and variational methods.
problem Enforcing object pose relationships for robustness to viewpoint changes.
method Probabilistic generative model with variational bound, exploring capsule assumptions and inference mechanisms.
result Unified objective and test time optimisation demonstrated for capsule models.
Develops probabilistic models for gene regulatory network inference.
problem Challenges in reconstructing gene regulatory networks from genome-wide data.
method Two complementary frameworks: PMF-GRN and GLM-Prior.
result Probabilistic inference refines regulatory estimates with quantified uncertainty.
We elaborate on using importance sampling for causal reasoning, in particular for counterfactual inference. We show how this can be implemented natively in probabilistic programming. By considering the structure of the counterfactual query, one can significantly optimise the inference process. We also consider design c…
pRSL combines probabilistic rules to improve multi-label classification.
problem Modeling the structure between multi-label classes for better performance.
method Uses probabilistic propositional logic rules and belief propagation to combine predictions from multiple classifiers.
result pRSL achieves state-of-the-art performance on various benchmark datasets.
Efficiently updates beliefs with virtual observations.
problem Incremental belief updates in Bayesian models.
method Constructs weighted virtual observations to match posterior.
result Reconstructed posterior matches original posterior closely.