Fast algorithm solves BVPs in linear time with probabilistic uncertainty.
problem Solving boundary value problems efficiently and accurately.
method Gauss--Markov prior tailored to BVPs, linear-time computation.
result Probabilistic solution with linear time complexity and comparable quality.
EASE estimator improves probabilistic value estimation efficiency.
problem Efficiently estimating probabilistic values like Shapley and semivalues.
method Developed an Efficiency-Aware Surrogate-adjusted Estimator (EASE) that minimizes first-order mean squared error.
result EASE consistently outperforms existing estimators for various probabilistic values.
PSI models and infers feature attributions efficiently and accurately.
problem Modeling and inferring feature attributions in flexible predictive models.
method Probabilistic Shapley inference (PSI) framework using latent random variables and a masking-based neural network architecture.
result PSI learns feature attribution distributions centered at Shapley values, revealing meaningful uncertainty.
Proposes a method to reconcile count time series forecasts.
problem No formal framework for probabilistic reconciliation of count time series.
method Generalizes Bayes' rule for reconciling real-valued and count variables.
result Improves forecast accuracy for count variables compared to Gaussian reconciliation.
Fenrir uses probabilistic numerics to simplify solving initial value problems.
problem Solving initial value problems in ordinary differential equations.
method Probabilistic numerics and Gauss--Markov regression.
result The method simplifies parameter estimation in ODEs, making it easier and more robust.
This paper proposes a probabilistic imputation method with uncertainty quantification.
problem Missing value imputation with uncertainty estimation for large datasets.
method Low Rank Gaussian Copula framework that augments PPCA with column-specific transformations.
result The method yields state-of-the-art imputation accuracy and well-calibrated uncertainty estimates.
ProFITi model forecasts irregular time series with missing values using conditional flows.
problem Probabilistic forecasting of irregularly sampled multivariate time series with missing values.
method ProFITi model uses conditional normalizing flows and invertible layers to learn joint distributions conditioned on past observations and queried channels and times.
result ProFITi model provides 4 times higher likelihood than the previous best model.
Calibrated probabilistic solvers improve accuracy of ODE estimates.
problem Uncertainty in probabilistic ODE solutions is not well-calibrated for adaptive step sizes.
method Introduce and assess several calibration methods for probabilistic ODE solvers.
result Calibration methods interact efficiently with adaptive step-size selection, improving posteriors.
We study a probabilistic numerical method for the solution of both boundary and initial value problems that returns a joint Gaussian process posterior over the solution. Such methods have concrete value in the statistics on Riemannian manifolds, where non-analytic ordinary differential equations are involved in virtual…
Value selection reduces model size while maintaining accuracy.
problem Space efficiency in model size reduction.
method Two probabilistic methods based on information theory's metric: PVS and P + VS.
result Value selection achieves balance between accuracy and model size reduction.
Paper proposes a unified framework for evaluating calibration of probabilistic models.
problem Evaluation of calibration for general probabilistic predictive models.
method Unified framework for calibration evaluation and tests for any probabilistic model.
result Generalization and reformulation of existing measures and tests.
New method classifies manifold-valued data using Riemannian geometry.
problem Classifying data on curved Riemannian manifolds.
method Probabilistic Learning Vector Quantization on Symmetric Positive Definite Matrices.
result The method outperforms traditional Euclidean methods on manifold-valued data.
LSSDM improves imputation of multivariate time series data.
problem Imputation of multivariate time series data without labels.
method LSSDM projects observed data into latent space, reconstructs missing values without labels, and uses a conditional diffusion model for precise imputation.
result LSSDM achieves superior imputation performance and uncertainty analysis.
Probabilistic techniques are central to data analysis, but different approaches can be difficult to apply, combine, and compare. This paper introduces composable generative population models (CGPMs), a computational abstraction that extends directed graphical models and can be used to describe and compose a broad class…
Contemporary global optimization algorithms are based on local measures of utility, rather than a probability measure over location and value of the optimum. They thus attempt to collect low function values, not to learn about the optimum. The reason for the absence of probabilistic global optimizers is that the corres…
Research connects probabilistic and variational approaches to Kahler-Einstein metrics.
problem Constructing Kahler-Einstein metrics on complex projective varieties.
method Combines probabilistic construction and variational methods.
result Non-Archimedean geometry of X emerges from probabilistic framework.
Impact of chosen behavioural factors on imprecision of present value is discussed here. The formal model of behavioural present value is offered as a result of this discussion. Behavioural present value is described here by fuzzy set. These considerations were illustrated by means of extensive numerical case study. Fin…
This paper explores semi-qualitative probabilistic networks (SQPNs) that combine numeric and qualitative information. We first show that exact inferences with SQPNs are NPPP-Complete. We then show that existing qualitative relations in SQPNs (plus probabilistic logic and imprecise assessments) can be dealt effectively …
Method estimates posterior model for boundary value problems with uncertain constraints.
problem Estimating posterior probability model for stochastic boundary value problems with uncertain constraints.
method Probabilistic learning inference using Kullback-Leibler divergence and MCMC.
result Method successfully estimates posterior probability measure with constraints.
Quantile gradient boosted trees outperform other models in predicting NO2 concentration distributions.
problem Forecasting high NO2 concentration episodes for effective air quality management.
method Compared 10 probabilistic forecasting models for NO2 concentration prediction.
result Quantile gradient boosted trees model outperformed others in predicting NO2 concentration distributions.
SPPL simplifies probabilistic programming for exact inference.
problem Efficient exact inference in probabilistic models.
method SPPL translates probabilistic programs into sum-product expressions, leveraging new techniques for scalability.
result SPPL achieves up to 3500x speedups in exact inference.
Probabilistic hash embeddings improve online learning of categorical features.
problem Online learning of categorical features with changing vocabulary.
method Probabilistic hash embedding (PHE) with Bayesian online learning.
result PHE mitigates forgetting and maintains high performance in online settings.
Probabilistic proof of smooth boundaries in optimal stopping problems.
problem Continuous differentiability of time-dependent optimal boundaries in optimal stopping problems.
method Local probabilistic arguments for a wider range of conditions.
result First probabilistic proof of continuous differentiability under general conditions.
Probabilistic approach to Boolean matrix factorization can provide solutions robustagainst noise and missing values with linear computational complexity. However,the assumption about latent factors can be problematic in real world applications.This study proposed a new probabilistic algorithm free of assumptions of lat…
Probabilistic graphical models are traditionally known for their successes in generative modeling. In this work, we advocate layered graphical models (LGMs) for probabilistic discriminative learning. To this end, we design LGMs in close analogy to neural networks (NNs), that is, they have deep hierarchical structures a…
The paper improves ODE solvers by integrating diverse information types.
problem Improving accuracy and physical meaningfulness of ODE solutions.
method Leveraging probabilistic solvers to include second-order information and physical conservation laws.
result Solutions become more accurate and physically meaningful with additional information.
New theorem connects probabilistic permanental point processes to Monge-Ampère equation.
problem Probabilistic interpretation of Monge-Ampère equation boundary value problem.
method Large deviation principles and optimal transport theory.
result Explicit rate function for permanental point processes large deviation.
Probabilistic programming aids in automatically dating ice cores, reducing manual error and uncertainty.
problem Automatically dating ice cores with high accuracy and capturing uncertainty.
method Probabilistic models and probabilistic programming for automatic inference.
result Demonstrated the use of probabilistic programming for ice core dating, showcasing its benefits and limitations.
A probabilistic query may not be estimable from observed data corrupted by missing values if the data are not missing at random (MAR). It is therefore of theoretical interest and practical importance to determine in principle whether a probabilistic query is estimable from missing data or not when the data are not MAR.…
CSDI improves time series imputation by 40-65% over existing methods.
problem Imputing missing values in time series data.
method Conditional Score-based Diffusion models conditioned on observed data.
result CSDI improves by 40-65% over existing probabilistic imputation methods on popular metrics.
We present a derivation and theoretical investigation of the Adams-Bashforth and Adams-Moulton family of linear multistep methods for solving ordinary differential equations, starting from a Gaussian process (GP) framework. In the limit, this formulation coincides with the classical deterministic methods, which have be…
Hybrid approach improves probabilistic forecasts for electricity trading.
problem Improving probabilistic forecasts for electricity trading markets.
method Combines QRA and factor-based averaging for probabilistic forecasting.
result The hybrid approach outperforms benchmarks in statistical measures and economic value.
Researchers propose better probabilistic models for deep learning.
problem Using cross-entropy loss for non-categorical data.
method Introducing continuous-categorical distribution and proposing probabilistic alternatives.
result Potential for outperformance in deep learning models with proper probabilistic treatment.
DALTON improves ODE parameter estimation by learning from noisy data.
problem High sensitivity to parameters in ODEs produces unreliable parameter estimates.
method Data-adaptive probabilistic likelihood approximation for ODEs.
result DALTON produces more accurate parameter estimates than existing methods.
Proposes a new algorithm for efficient probabilistic reconciliation of forecasts.
problem Ensuring coherence in forecasts for hierarchical time series.
method Bottom-Up Importance Sampling algorithm for any type of forecast distribution.
result Significant improvement over base probabilistic forecasts in experiments.
Develops effective adversarial attacks on probabilistic forecasting models.
problem Adversarial attacks on neural models outputting probability distributions.
method Effective generation of adversarial attacks through Monte-Carlo estimation and Bayesian conditioning.
result Demonstrates successful generation of attacks with small input perturbations.
New algorithm improves data imputation for complex multimodal data sets.
problem Artifacts in imputation methods for multimodal distributions.
method Combines kNN and KDE for probabilistic estimates. result Lower imputation errors and higher likelihood estimates.
The PARAFAC2 is a multimodal factor analysis model suitable for analyzing multi-way data when one of the modes has incomparable observation units, for example because of differences in signal sampling or batch sizes. A fully probabilistic treatment of the PARAFAC2 is desirable in order to improve robustness to noise an…
The paper develops a new probabilistic framework for denoising diffusion models using free entropy and stochastic analysis.
problem Developing a mathematical framework for denoising diffusion models in noncommutative settings.
method Formulating diffusion and reverse processes governed by operator-valued stochastic dynamics, using tools from free stochastic analysis.
result Establishing an information-geometric link between entropy production, transport, and deconvolution.
We present a method to compute the Shapley values of reconstruction errors of principal component analysis (PCA), which is particularly useful in explaining the results of anomaly detection based on PCA. Because features are usually correlated when PCA-based anomaly detection is applied, care must be taken in computing…
Proposes using diffusion models for probabilistic stock market predictions.
problem Uncertainties in financial data make deterministic models ineffective for stock market predictions.
method Utilizes Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models (DDPM) and Masked Relational Transformer (MRT).
result Achieves state-of-the-art performance in stock movement prediction and portfolio management.
New method for efficient probabilistic inference using masked language modeling.
problem Efficient posterior inference in probabilistic programs with many hyper-parameters.
method Formulate inference as masked language modeling, train a neural network to unmask random values.
result Foundation posterior for zero-shot inference and fine-tuning across a range of programs.
Kernel quadrature improves CRPS estimation for probabilistic time-series forecasting.
problem Intractable integrations in CRPS evaluation metrics lead to improper rankings of forecasting models.
method Introduced kernel quadrature approach for unbiased CRPS estimation and scalable computation.
result Our approach consistently outperforms existing CRPS estimators.
SQR Averaging improves probabilistic electricity price forecasting.
problem Accurate short-term price forecasting in electricity markets.
method Smoothing Quantile Regression Averaging.
result SQR Averaging leads to profit increases of up to 3.5% in day-ahead power trading.
Develops a new method to measure causal effects in continuous and discrete settings.
problem Measuring direct causal effects in complex scenarios with continuous and interventionally changing variables.
method Probabilistic Easy Variational Causal Effect (PEACE) method, developed for both continuous and discrete cases.
result PEACE can measure causal effects under various conditions and is stable under small changes.
This study introduces PV-RNN, a novel variational RNN inspired by the predictive-coding ideas. The model learns to extract the probabilistic structures hidden in fluctuating temporal patterns by dynamically changing the stochasticity of its latent states. Its architecture attempts to address two major concerns of varia…
Like many numerical methods, solvers for initial value problems (IVPs) on ordinary differential equations estimate an analytically intractable quantity, using the results of tractable computations as inputs. This structure is closely connected to the notion of inference on latent variables in statistics. We describe a …
Combines coarse learners for nonparametric probabilistic regression.
problem Predicting full probability density functions without strong assumptions.
method Combining gradient boosted forests trained on coarsened target values.
result Prediction intervals have high fidelity and provide valuable insights.