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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,695 papers · 148 categories

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3673109145 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for Probabilistic Safety

A new error bound improves safety in Bayesian optimization.

problem Ensuring safety in Bayesian optimization with probabilistic models.
method Introducing a novel error bound using Wiener kernel regression for Gaussian processes and noise.
result The new error bound provides larger safety regions than previous methods.

Develops a method to simulate rare dangerous events in autonomous systems.

problem Rare dangerous events in safety-critical systems are hard to test in real-world settings.
method Combines exploration, exploitation, and optimization techniques for rare-event simulation.
result Provides rigorous guarantees for the performance of the method.

The paper discusses safety assessment for AI systems, focusing on machine learning models.

problem Safety assessment of AI systems, especially machine learning models, in safety-related applications.
method Analyzed AI models as statistical models and proposed a new budget allocation for AI safety.
result Safety assessment of AI systems requires a new approach focusing on the model used, not just the system.

Proposes a recursive MPC scheme with probabilistic safety guarantees for uncertain dynamic systems.

problem Probabilistic safety guarantees for MPC in dynamic environments with unknown stochastic agents.
method Uses conformal prediction to derive high-confidence prediction regions and gradually relax safety constraints online.
result Ensures recursive feasibility of MPC schemes by relaxing safety constraints over time.

Deep-PrAE improves rare-event simulation for black-box systems.

problem Evaluating rare safety-critical events in learning-based systems.
method Combines deep neural networks with IS to create statistically guaranteed estimations.
result Deep-PrAE provides accurate bounds on safety-critical event probabilities.

A-NeSI scales approximate inference for probabilistic neurosymbolic learning.

problem Combining neural networks with symbolic reasoning for scalable inference.
method A-NeSI: a new framework for PNL using neural networks for approximate inference.
result A-NeSI achieves scalable approximate inference without semantic changes.

Safe exploration method for RL under disturbance ensures safety with probabilistic guarantees.

problem Safe reinforcement learning in real environments with disturbance.
method Uses partial prior knowledge and conservative inputs to ensure state constraint satisfaction.
result Guaranteed safety with pre-specified probability in the presence of stochastic disturbance.

Meta-active learning optimizes control of safety-critical systems by efficiently learning dynamics and configurations.

problem Efficiently learning system dynamics and optimal configurations for safety-critical systems like deep brain stimulation.
method Meta-learning an acquisition function using LSTM, cast as meta-learning, with a mixed-integer linear program policy.
result Achieved a 46% increase in information gain and a 20% speedup in computation time over baselines.

Adversarial attacks on probabilistic state-space models affect latent state and policy decisions.

problem Robust reinforcement learning under adversarial observability.
method Analyzing adversarial attacks on linear probabilistic state-space models.
result Demonstrating the influence of adversarial observations on latent state and policy decisions.

CSP improves time-series forecasting without training, outperforming DeepNPTS in speed and accuracy.

problem Improving probabilistic time-series forecasting without training.
method Mixing empirical and residual draws around a seasonal naive forecast.
result CSP significantly outperforms DeepNPTS on CRPS, normalized mean quantile loss, and coverage metrics.

Probabilistic classifiers output a probability distribution on target classes rather than just a class prediction. Besides providing a clear separation of prediction and decision making, the main advantage of probabilistic models is their ability to represent uncertainty about predictions. In safety-critical applicatio…

2019-02-19abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper tackles MAP inference over non-convex constraints in safety-critical settings.

problem Efficiently computing MAP predictions subject to non-convex constraints is challenging.
method The paper investigates conditions for exact and efficient MAP inference over continuous variables and devises scalable algorithms for both tractable and general cases.
result The proposed methods outperform constraint-agnostic baselines and scale to complex densities.

The paper provides tighter error bounds for GPR under bounded support noise.

problem Rigorous error quantification for safety-critical applications with bounded noise.
method Using concentration inequalities and low complexity assumptions in RKHS, the paper derives probabilistic and deterministic error bounds for GPR.
result The derived error bounds are substantially tighter than existing state-of-the-art bounds and are particularly well-suited for GPR with neural network kernels.

Generative model improves safety in self-driving simulators and human motion generation.

problem Improving generative models for constrained domains like safety-critical applications.
method Developed Gen-neG, a denoising diffusion model that uses oracle-assisted guidance.
result Empirically validated Gen-neG for collision avoidance and safety-guarded human motion generation.

Proposes a method to ensure accurate estimation of rare events in AI systems.

problem Lack of efficiency guarantees in black-box systems for rare-event simulation.
method Integrates deep learning with importance sampling to create a statistically guaranteed estimator.
result Demonstrates effective estimation of rare-event probabilities in AI systems.

Iterative method learns unknown constraints for MPC control.

problem Learning to satisfy unknown polyhedral state constraints in iterative MPC.
method Collects and improves estimates of unknown constraints using collected data, designs an MPC controller to satisfy the estimated constraints.
result Robust and probabilistic guarantees of constraint satisfaction as a function of task iterations.

Study optimality in safety-constrained Markov decision processes using asynchronous value iteration and modified Q-learning.

problem Optimality in safety-constrained Markov decision processes with multichain structure.
method Formulated as a zero-sum game, constructed asynchronous value iteration scheme and modified Q-learning algorithm.
result Resolved Bellman's principle of optimality for multichain Markov decision processes and provided learning algorithms.

This research tackles uncertainty estimation in autoregressive structured prediction tasks.

problem Ensuring safety and robustness of AI systems through accurate uncertainty estimation.
method Develops a unified probabilistic ensemble-based framework for token-level and sequence-level uncertainty estimation.
result Provides baselines for error and out-of-domain detection on translation and speech recognition datasets.

SAMBA improves safe reinforcement learning with active exploration metrics.

problem Safe reinforcement learning in dynamic systems.
method Combines probabilistic modelling, information theory, and statistics. Uses novel metrics for out-of-sample Gaussian process evaluation.
result Orders of magnitude reduction in samples and violations compared to state-of-the-art methods.

New framework uses conformal predictions for robust, scalable machine learning classification.

problem Developing robust and reliable machine learning models for classification.
method Introducing scalable classifiers linked to statistical order theory and probabilistic learning theory, defining a score function and conformal safety set.
result Demonstrated practical implications in cybersecurity for identifying DNS tunneling attacks.

Statistical model checking for PCTL on MDPs using reinforcement learning.

problem Model checking PCTL specifications on MDPs with statistical methods.
method Reinforcement learning for policy search, statistical model checking with UCB-based Q-learning.
result Provably guaranteed statistical model checking method for PCTL specifications on MDPs.

New method calibrates probabilistic regression models without restrictive assumptions.

problem Ensuring predictive distributions accurately reflect true uncertainty.
method Nonparametric re-calibration algorithm based on conditional kernel mean embeddings.
result Consistently outperforms prior re-calibration approaches across various benchmarks.

Autonomous vehicles rely on machine learning to solve challenging tasks in perception and motion planning. However, automotive software safety standards have not fully evolved to address the challenges of machine learning safety such as interpretability, verification, and performance limitations. In this paper, we revi…

2019-12-20abs ↗pdf ↗

We use SMC with twist functions to improve probabilistic inference in LLMs.

problem Improving probabilistic inference in large language models.
method We use Sequential Monte Carlo with learned twist functions to estimate expected future values and focus inference on promising sequences.
result Twisted SMC improves the accuracy of language model inference and evaluation.

PRoA assesses deep learning robustness against practical functional perturbations.

problem Inadequate practical robustness verification methods for deep learning systems.
method Probabilistic robustness assessment based on adaptive concentration.
result Statistical guarantees on probabilistic robustness against functional perturbations.

RAGuard improves safety in LLMs for offshore wind maintenance.

problem Conventional LLMs fail with specialised or unexpected scenarios in offshore wind maintenance.
method Integrates safety-critical documents alongside technical manuals in RAG framework.
result RAGuard increases safety recall from almost 0% to over 50% while maintaining technical recall above 60%.

Safe imitation learning with a safety layer for flexible training.

problem Flexible yet safe imitation learning for complex tasks.
method Theory and modular method with a safety layer for continuous policy, adversarial training, and worst-case safety guarantees.
result Robustness advantage of safety layer during training compared to test time.

VerifAI toolkit improves neural network-based aircraft taxiing system safety.

problem Improving safety of autonomous aircraft taxiing systems using neural networks.
method Unified approach to formal analysis and retraining of AI systems, including falsification, debugging, and retraining.
result Improved neural network performance and reduced failure cases in aircraft taxiing system.

Two new algorithms optimize rewards while respecting safety constraints in sequential decisions.

problem Optimizing rewards with safety constraints in sequential decisions.
method Stage-wise conservative linear Thompson Sampling (SCLTS) and stage-wise conservative linear UCB (SCLUCB).
result Probabilistic regret bounds of order O(\sqrt{T} \log^{3/2}T) and O(\sqrt{T} \log T).

This paper formalizes AI safety using hypothesis testing in GenAI.

problem Ensuring safety of generative AI tools that create realistic content.
method Formalization of computational safety through hypothesis testing and signal processing.
result Demonstrates how AI safety can be assessed quantitatively using mathematical frameworks.

A new algorithm for identifying the best arm in linear feedback with safety constraints.

problem Identifying the best arm in linear feedback with safety constraints.
method A gap-based algorithm that ensures safety while minimizing sample complexity.
result The algorithm achieves meaningful sample complexity while ensuring safety.

Safety filter for unknown discrete-time systems with learned models and noise covariance.

problem Ensuring safety for unknown discrete-time linear systems with Gaussian noise.
method Develops a learning-based safety filter using empirical model and noise covariance, optimizing control actions to stay within safety constraints.
result Minimally modifies nominal control actions to ensure safety with high probability, tightening constraints as more data is collected.

SafeML monitors ML systems for safety and security risks.

problem Ensuring safety and explainability of ML systems in safety-critical domains.
method Statistical difference measures of ECDF to detect distributional shifts.
result Approach can detect invalid application contexts of ML components.