A new method uses Gaussian Processes to solve power flow problems with uncertain renewable and load inputs.
problem Solving power flow problems with uncertain renewable and load inputs.
method Non-parametric Bayesian inference-based uncertainty propagation using Gaussian Processes.
result The method provides reasonably accurate solutions with fewer samples and time compared to Monte-Carlo simulations.
Probabilistic optimal power flow (POPF) is an important analytical tool to ensure the secure and economic operation of power systems. POPF needs to solve enormous nonlinear and nonconvex optimization problems. The huge computational burden has become the major bottleneck for the practical application. This paper presen…
Paper introduces normalizing flows for accurate probabilistic energy forecasting.
problem Uncertainty in renewable energy forecasting for power systems.
method Normalizing flows for direct learning of multivariate stochastic distributions.
result Normalizing flows outperform other deep learning models in probabilistic forecasting.
The problem of probabilistic forecasting and online simulation of real-time electricity market with stochastic generation and demand is considered. By exploiting the parametric structure of the direct current optimal power flow, a new technique based on online dictionary learning (ODL) is proposed. The ODL approach inc…
Normalizing flows provide a general mechanism for defining expressive probability distributions, only requiring the specification of a (usually simple) base distribution and a series of bijective transformations. There has been much recent work on normalizing flows, ranging from improving their expressive power to expa…
Proposes a method to apply conformal prediction to probabilistic time series forecasting models.
problem Obtaining accurate prediction regions for multi-step time series forecasting with probabilistic models.
method Conformalises conditional normalising flows to generate potentially disjoint prediction regions.
result Improves predictive efficiency in time series forecasting with multimodal distributions.
New probability path model improves flow matching forecasting performance.
problem Impact of probability path model selection on flow matching forecasting performance.
method Proposed a novel probability path model designed to improve forecasting performance.
result Our model achieves faster convergence during training and improved predictive performance compared to existing models.
Cascading flows improve variational inference in structured programs.
problem Challenges in variational inference for complex probabilistic programs.
method Integrates normalizing flows and ASVI to create cascading flows, which embed the forward-pass of probabilistic programs.
result Cascading flows outperform normalizing flows and ASVI in structured inference problems.
We present a unified method, based on convex optimization, for managing the power produced and consumed by a network of devices over time. We start with the simple setting of optimizing power flows in a static network, and then proceed to the case of optimizing dynamic power flows, i.e., power flows that change with ti…
MT-SGD samples from multiple target distributions using gradient descent.
problem Sampling from multiple unnormalized target distributions.
method Proposes MT-SGD, a flow of intermediate distributions to sample from multiple target distributions.
result Asymptotic analysis shows MT-SGD reduces to multiple-gradient descent for multi-objective optimization.
Probabilistic Autoencoder learns latent space weights' distribution.
problem Nonlinear model reconstruction error and sample quality.
method Normalizing flow for latent space weights' probability distribution.
result PAE achieves small reconstruction errors, high sample quality, and good performance.
GP CC-OPF solves uncertain power grid optimization with Gaussian Process.
problem Uncertainty in power grid operations due to high renewables integration.
method Data-driven Gaussian Process regression for solving non-convex CC-OPF problem.
result Effective economic dispatch optimization in uncertain power grids.
Optimizes power systems with energy storage under uncertainty using scenario-based method.
problem Optimizing power systems with energy storage, intermittent renewable generation, and uncontrollable loads under uncertainty.
method Developed a novel solution method based on scenario optimization and strategic sampling to solve the chance-constrained optimal power system operation problem.
result The strategic sampling method significantly improves computational efficiency and data-driven convex approximation of power flow.
Injective flows for star-like manifolds improve variational inference efficiency.
problem Efficiently modeling densities on star-like manifolds with exact Jacobian computation.
method Proposed injective flows for star-like manifolds with exact Jacobian computation.
result Exact Jacobian computation for star-like manifolds reduces computational cost to NFs.
Normalizing flows optimize Jacobian determinant for unique likelihood objective.
problem Optimizing normalizing flows for unique likelihood.
method Showed Jacobian determinant is unique for given distributions, leading to a unique global optimum. Used eigenvalues of auto-correlation matrix for explicit likelihood expression.
result Explicit expression of likelihood for flows, independent of neural network parameterization, with theoretical optimal value.
DIN framework directly models hydraulic conductivity and uncertainty.
problem Modeling hydraulic conductivity and uncertainty in groundwater flow.
method DIN utilizes DDPM as a prior learner, incorporating observational data through conditional injection mechanisms.
result DIN generates multiple constraint-satisfying realizations and accurate uncertainty quantification.
Probabilistic programming languages (PPLs) are a powerful modeling tool, able to represent any computable probability distribution. Unfortunately, probabilistic program inference is often intractable, and existing PPLs mostly rely on expensive, approximate sampling-based methods. To alleviate this problem, one could tr…
This paper introduces a new probabilistic model for online learning which dynamically incorporates information from stochastic gradients of an arbitrary loss function. Similar to probabilistic filtering, the model maintains a Gaussian belief over the optimal weight parameters. Unlike traditional Bayesian updates, the m…
We consider an original problem that arises from the issue of security analysis of a power system and that we name optimal discovery with probabilistic expert advice. We address it with an algorithm based on the optimistic paradigm and on the Good-Turing missing mass estimator. We prove two different regret bounds on t…
iEFM trains CNF models from unnormalized densities efficiently.
problem Training generators from energy functions or unnormalized densities.
method Iterated energy-based flow matching (iEFM) with simulation-free objective.
result iEFM outperforms existing methods in probabilistic modeling.
DIGRAC clusters directed graphs using flow imbalance, outperforming existing methods.
problem Clustering directed networks without label supervision.
method DIGRAC uses a graph neural network with a novel imbalance loss for directed flow imbalance.
result DIGRAC outperforms 10 state-of-the-art methods on directed graph clustering.
Flow adjusts curvature to avoid a fixed region, proving bounds and regularity.
problem Adjusting curvature flow to avoid a fixed region.
method Flow by powers of Gauss curvature, proving optimal curvature bounds and regularity.
result Proves optimal curvature bounds and long time existence for all dimensions and powers.
Electronic power inverters are capable of quickly delivering reactive power to maintain customer voltages within operating tolerances and to reduce system losses in distribution grids. This paper proposes a systematic and data-driven approach to determine reactive power inverter output as a function of local measuremen…
Simple probabilistic solution for optimal liquidation with linear price impact.
problem Maximizing expected terminal wealth in a setup with quadratic transaction costs.
method Provided a simple probabilistic solution to the problem.
result Simple and probabilistic form of the solution not previously published.
This paper develops an ensemble learning-based linearization approach for power flow, which differs from the network-parameter based direct current (DC) power flow or other extended versions of linearization. As a novel data-driven linearization through data mining, it firstly applies the polynomial regression (PR) as …
We introduce Hyper-Conditioned Neural Autoregressive Flow (HCNAF); a powerful universal distribution approximator designed to model arbitrarily complex conditional probability density functions. HCNAF consists of a neural-net based conditional autoregressive flow (AF) and a hyper-network that can take large conditions …
The framework of reinforcement learning or optimal control provides a mathematical formalization of intelligent decision making that is powerful and broadly applicable. While the general form of the reinforcement learning problem enables effective reasoning about uncertainty, the connection between reinforcement learni…
Paper develops robust OPF method using contextual information.
problem Optimal Power Flow problem under incomplete uncertainty knowledge.
method Distributionally robust chance-constrained formulation with probability trimmings and optimal transport.
result Distributional robustness improves expected cost and system reliability.
VFG model embeds flow-based models with hierarchical structures using variational inference.
problem Flow-based models struggle with high-dimensional latent spaces and lack of tractable inference for graphical structures.
method Integrates flow-based functions through variational inference with aggregation nodes for hierarchical information integration.
result VFG models achieve improved ELBO and likelihood values on multiple datasets.
DiffOPF solves multi-valued OPF problems by sampling from system history.
problem Multi-valued and non-convex OPF problems due to system parameter variability.
method DiffOPF treats OPF as a conditional sampling problem, learning from historical data.
result DiffOPF enables statistically credible warm starts with favorable cost and constraint satisfaction trade-offs.
The increasing complexity of the power grid, due to higher penetration of distributed resources and the growing availability of interconnected, distributed metering devices re- quires novel tools for providing a unified and consistent view of the system. A computational framework for power systems data fusion, based on…
A new KDE model prevents singular solutions and accelerates optimization for probabilistic modeling.
problem Adapting to varying densities in data regions for probabilistic modeling.
method Adaptive KDE model with individual bandwidths, LOO-MLL criterion, and modified EM algorithm.
result The proposed models prevent singular solutions and have promising performance.
MI-GAN solves OPF with renewable uncertainty using model-informed layers.
problem Optimal Power Flow (OPF) under renewable uncertainty.
method Model-Informed Generative Adversarial Network (MI-GAN) framework with three layers.
result MI-GAN improves solution feasibility and optimality.
Neural network predicts daily power consumption with high accuracy.
problem Middle-term power consumption prediction in the energy sector.
method Incorporates trend, seasonality, and weather conditions in a shallow Neural Network.
result Excellent density forecast results on one-year test set.
Transformers model contextual relations using probabilistic measures, revealing their expressive power.
problem Lack of clear understanding of Transformer's ability to model contextual relations.
method Introduced a measure-theoretic framework connecting softmax attention and entropy-regularized optimal transport.
result Transformer architectures can approximate arbitrary contextual relations, and the choice of normalization affects how these relations are represented.
New model predicts radiative properties of nanoparticle layers with high accuracy and uncertainty.
problem Predicting radiative properties of nanoparticle embedded layers accurately and with uncertainty.
method Conditional normalizing flows learn conditional distributions of optical outputs given input parameters.
result The model achieves high predictive accuracy and reliable uncertainty estimates.
Probabilistic programming is a powerful abstraction for statistical machine learning. Applying static analysis methods to probabilistic programs could serve to optimize the learning process, automatically verify properties of models, and improve the programming interface for users. This field of static analysis for pro…
Diffusion LLMs can efficiently generate harmful prompts for adversarial testing.
problem Generating harmful prompts for adversarial testing is resource-intensive and costly.
method Transformed adversarial prompt optimization into an efficient inference task using pretrained Diffusion LLMs.
result Only a few conditional samples are required to generate harmful prompts with high reward.
Improved normalising flows using Student's t-distribution for robust training.
problem Training deep probabilistic models with robust statistics.
method Propose Student's t-distribution as a robust alternative to Gaussian in normalising flows.
result Improved robustness and reduced generalization gap with Student's t-distribution.
In this paper, we develop an online method that leverages machine learning to obtain feasible solutions to the AC optimal power flow (OPF) problem with negligible optimality gaps on extremely fast timescales (e.g., milliseconds), bypassing solving an AC OPF altogether. This is motivated by the fact that as the power gr…
MPF method improves parameter estimation in probabilistic models.
problem Difficulty in fitting probabilistic models due to intractable partition function.
method Minimum Probability Flow (MPF) method for parameter estimation.
result MPF outperforms existing techniques in convergence time and accuracy.
Paper proposes a method for weather-informed probabilistic forecasting and scenario generation in power systems.
problem Challenges of integrating renewable energy sources into power grids due to their stochasticity and uncertainty.
method Combines probabilistic forecasting and Gaussian copula for day-ahead prediction and scenario generation of load, wind, and solar power.
result Demonstrates superior performance of the proposed weather-informed Temporal Fusion Transformer (WI-TFT) model.
In general, gradient estimates are very important and necessary for deriving convergence results in different geometric flows, and most of them are obtained by analytic methods. In this paper, we will apply a stochastic approach to systematically give gradient estimates for some important geometric quantities under the…
The paper extends entropy formulas to super Ricci flows on metric measure spaces.
problem Entropy formulas for super Ricci flows on metric measure spaces.
method Extending Perelman's W-entropy and Shannon entropy power to super Ricci flows. result Equivalence between volume non-local collapsing property and lower boundedness of W-entropy on RCD(0,N) spaces. PNCs balance tractability and expressiveness in probabilistic modeling.
problem Balancing tractability and expressiveness in probabilistic models.
method Introduce probabilistic neural circuits (PNCs) as a mix of Bayesian networks and neural networks.
result PNCs are powerful function approximators.
TSFlow uses Gaussian processes to match priors for better time series forecasting.
problem Difficulties in aligning generative models' priors with time series data.
method Conditional flow matching (CFM) with Gaussian processes, optimal transport, and data-dependent priors.
result TSFlow produces high-quality unconditional samples and competitive forecasting results.
D2PCCA integrates deep learning and probabilistic modeling for nonlinear dynamical systems.
problem Analyzing nonlinear dynamical systems with probabilistic understanding.
method Combines deep learning and probabilistic modeling, using KL annealing and normalizing flows.
result Captures latent dynamics in sequential datasets with improved convergence and flexibility.
The Optimal Power Flow (OPF) problem is a fundamental building block for the optimization of electrical power systems. It is nonlinear and nonconvex and computes the generator setpoints for power and voltage, given a set of load demands. It is often needed to be solved repeatedly under various conditions, either in rea…