Paper proposes a probabilistic alignment method for domain adaptation.
problem Latent distribution mismatch and miscalibrated uncertainty in adapting large-scale models.
method Bayesian latent transport framework with PAC-Bayesian regularization.
result Reduction in latent manifold discrepancy and improved uncertainty calibration.
New method for efficient probabilistic inference using masked language modeling.
problem Efficient posterior inference in probabilistic programs with many hyper-parameters.
method Formulate inference as masked language modeling, train a neural network to unmask random values.
result Foundation posterior for zero-shot inference and fine-tuning across a range of programs.
Unified probabilistic foundation for fuzzy simplicial sets in dimensionality reduction.
problem Lack of clear probabilistic interpretation in fuzzy simplicial sets.
method Introducing a probabilistic framework explaining fuzzy simplicial sets as marginals of probability measures on simplicial sets.
result Unified probabilistic theoretical foundation for fuzzy simplicial sets.
ProbFM provides principled uncertainty quantification for financial forecasting.
problem Lack of principled uncertainty quantification in financial applications.
method Probabilistic Time Series Foundation Model with Uncertainty Decomposition using Deep Evidential Regression (DER).
result DER maintains competitive forecasting accuracy while providing explicit epistemic-aleatoric uncertainty decomposition.
This paper presents foundational theoretical results on distributed parameter estimation for undirected probabilistic graphical models. It introduces a general condition on composite likelihood decompositions of these models which guarantees the global consistency of distributed estimators, provided the local estimator…
New framework explains leading digit patterns without probabilistic assumptions.
problem Explaining leading digit distributions without relying on probabilistic models.
method Shift-invariant functional equation and affine-plus-periodic formulas.
result Unified mathematical foundation for understanding digit distributions.
PAC-Bayesian bounds for MLPs with cross entropy loss validated.
problem Generalization bounds for MLPs with cross entropy loss.
method Introduced probabilistic explanations and proved PAC-Bayesian bounds using ELBO.
result MLPs with cross entropy loss inherently guarantee PAC-Bayesian generalization bounds.
This book is a graduate-level introduction to probabilistic programming. It not only provides a thorough background for anyone wishing to use a probabilistic programming system, but also introduces the techniques needed to design and build these systems. It is aimed at people who have an undergraduate-level understandi…
Proposes a method to use generators as EBM foundations without latent inference.
problem Training EBMs from generator outputs without latent variables.
method Formulates a Hat EBM using generator outputs and residual variables.
result Strong performance on various generator tasks.
ICON learns differential equation operators from examples, revealing probabilistic inference.
problem Learning operators for differential equations from limited examples.
method Probabilistic operator learning using ICON architectures trained on diverse datasets.
result ICON implicitly performs Bayesian inference on solution operators.
Unified framework for differentiable graph partitioning with probabilistic cuts.
problem Lack of general guarantees and principled gradients in prior probabilistic relaxations of graph cuts.
method Unified probabilistic framework covering a wide class of cuts, including Normalized Cut, with tight analytic upper bounds.
result Rigorous, numerically stable foundation for scalable, differentiable graph partitioning.
The problem of replicating the flexibility of human common-sense reasoning has captured the imagination of computer scientists since the early days of Alan Turing's foundational work on computation and the philosophy of artificial intelligence. In the intervening years, the idea of cognition as computation has emerged …
Paper introduces TS-GPT for engineering time series forecasting.
problem Engineering time series require causal operations, unlike linguistic data.
method Innovations representation theory, Generative Pre-trained Transformer.
result TS-GPT effectively forecasts real-time locational marginal prices.
Extends partitioned local depth concept with probabilistic considerations.
problem Uncertain, variable, and conflicting information in data.
method Partitioned local depth with probabilistic concepts of local relevance and support division.
result Extends original ideas to handle uncertain data.
New k-means method handles random data better than traditional techniques.
problem Limitations of traditional clustering methods in random data.
method Probabilistic metric space with random normed k-means (RNKM).
result RNKM outperforms traditional methods in complex clustering scenarios.
This manuscript proposes a probabilistic framework for algorithms that iteratively solve unconstrained linear problems Bx=b with positive definite B for x. The goal is to replace the point estimates returned by existing methods with a Gaussian posterior belief over the elements of the inverse of B, which can …
Develops probabilistic safety regions for scalable classifiers.
problem Minimizing misclassification errors in supervised classification.
method Introduces probabilistic safety regions and scalable classifiers.
result Probabilistic certifications for classifier performance.
Golden age of mathematical finance in the late 20th century.
problem Foundations of mathematical finance during the late 20th century.
method Collaboration between economists and probabilists.
result Established two fundamental theorems of arbitrage theory and close formulas for options.
uGMM-NN integrates probabilistic reasoning into neural networks.
problem Capturing multimodality and uncertainty in neural network activations.
method Parameterizes activations as univariate Gaussian mixtures with learnable parameters.
result Competitive discriminative performance with probabilistic activations.
Study uses simulation-based inference to decode brain activity from synthetic stimuli.
problem Reversing the process of brain activity emulation to recover stimuli or their properties.
method Pairing brain emulator with LLMs to learn a probabilistic mapping from brain maps to stimulus parameters.
result LLMs can serve as controllable stimulus generators and parameters can be recovered from brain maps.
Probabilistic grammars improve equation discovery from data.
problem Discovering scientific laws from data using equations.
method Proposed probabilistic context-free grammars to encode soft constraints and a Monte-Carlo algorithm.
result Probabilistic grammars lead to more efficient equation discovery.
Probabilistic Latent Semantic Analysis is a novel statistical technique for the analysis of two-mode and co-occurrence data, which has applications in information retrieval and filtering, natural language processing, machine learning from text, and in related areas. Compared to standard Latent Semantic Analysis which s…
VCL adds uncertainty to contrastive learning models.
problem Lack of uncertainty quantification in contrastive learning methods.
method VCL uses a decoder-free framework that maximizes ELBO with InfoNCE loss and KL divergence.
result VCL provides meaningful uncertainty estimates and matches deterministic baselines in accuracy.
Ens-CGP synthesizes ensemble-based inference with Gaussian processes.
problem Ensemble-based inference and Gaussian process modeling.
method Formulates Ens-CGP as a conditional Gaussian process for ensemble moments.
result Ens-CGP provides a unified probabilistic foundation for Kalman-type methods.
AI model enhances grid monitoring with synchro-waveform tech.
problem Dynamic, stochastic, low-inertia future grids need advanced monitoring.
method AI Foundation Model with synchro-waveform tech.
result Significantly improved fault detection accuracy and speed.
Bayesian network framework assesses urban risks across multiple domains.
problem Complex interdependencies in urban systems.
method Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) with DAGs, Hill-Climbing search, BIC, K2 scoring, synthetic data, SMOTE.
result Identifies key risk factors and quantifies likelihood of cascading failures.
This paper introduces a neural operator for probabilistic conditioning.
problem Probabilistic conditioning of random variables X given Y. method Develops a single operator that maps any joint density to its conditional, approximated by neural operators.
result Neural operators can approximate the conditioning operator to arbitrary accuracy.
Introduces a probabilistic framework for dimension reduction methods.
problem Lack of clear probabilistic foundations for popular DR methods.
method A unifying statistical framework based on the coupling of hidden graphs using cross entropy.
result Existing DR methods suffer from a statistical deficiency that affects performance.
Relational probabilistic models have the challenge of aggregation, where one variable depends on a population of other variables. Consider the problem of predicting gender from movie ratings; this is challenging because the number of movies per user and users per movie can vary greatly. Surprisingly, aggregation is not…
A new framework models uncertainty in structured temporal data using SDEs and neural networks.
problem Uncertainty quantification in machine learning applications involving structured and temporal data.
method Integrates stochastic differential equations (SDEs) with deep generative models in a variational autoencoder framework.
result Improves uncertainty quantification in machine learning applications involving structured and temporal data.
Hybrid Bayesian neural networks use function uncertainty for probabilistic inference.
problem Uncertainty in neural network weights is hard to specify and interpret.
method Integrates probabilistic layers with standard deterministic layers for function uncertainty.
result Improves probabilistic inference by encoding function uncertainty.
AdaPTS adapts univariate FMs for multivariate time series forecasting.
problem Challenges in managing feature dependencies and uncertainty quantification in multivariate time series forecasting.
method Adapters that transform multivariate inputs into a latent space and apply univariate FMs independently to each dimension.
result AdaPTS enhances forecasting accuracy and uncertainty quantification compared to baseline methods.
PACE explains ViTs by modeling patch-level concept distributions, surpassing existing methods.
problem Lack of trustworthy post-hoc explanations for Vision Transformers (ViTs)
method Variational Bayesian explanation framework (PACE)
result PACE surpasses state-of-the-art methods in meeting desiderata for ViT explanations.
Survey on modeling event sequences through temporal processes.
problem Modeling phenomena with sequences of events over continuous time.
method Probabilistic models based on point processes, categorized into simple, marked, and spatio-temporal.
result Analysis of existing approaches and their applicability to prediction and modeling.
Normalizing flows provide a general mechanism for defining expressive probability distributions, only requiring the specification of a (usually simple) base distribution and a series of bijective transformations. There has been much recent work on normalizing flows, ranging from improving their expressive power to expa…
Paper introduces Prob-SSI for robust OMA in noisy data.
problem Challenges in estimating modal parameters from noisy data.
method Probabilistic formulation of SSI, robust Prob-SSI algorithm.
result Robust Prob-SSI outperforms conventional SSI in corrupted data.
In this report we review memory-based meta-learning as a tool for building sample-efficient strategies that learn from past experience to adapt to any task within a target class. Our goal is to equip the reader with the conceptual foundations of this tool for building new, scalable agents that operate on broad domains.…
Transformer with denoising diffusion improves probabilistic density estimation.
problem Estimating non-Gaussian and multimodal probability distributions for regression problems.
method Training a denoising diffusion head on top of a Transformer model.
result The model provides reasonable probability density estimation for high-dimensional inputs.
A new framework reduces inconsistencies in chaotic surrogate modeling.
problem Consistency issues between probabilistic objectives and dynamical system dynamics.
method KAFFEE (Kalman-Aware Framework For Ergodic Emulation), a differentiable extended Kalman filter.
result KAFFEE mitigates the dynamic-probabilistic consistency gap, improving reconstruction and predictive scores.
Graph-based Bayesian SSL uses graph theory to propagate labels from a few to many unlabeled features.
problem Efficiently propagating labels from a small set of labeled data to a large set of unlabeled data.
method Probabilistic framework using graph theory and Bayesian statistics.
result Mathematical foundations for improving the accuracy and efficiency of label propagation.
Identifying overlapping communities in networks is a challenging task. In this work we present a novel approach to community detection that utilises the Bayesian non-negative matrix factorisation (NMF) model to produce a probabilistic output for node memberships. The scheme has the advantage of computational efficiency…
Paper introduces DMPMs for efficient discrete data generation with sharp convergence bounds.
problem Efficient generation of discrete data with theoretical guarantees.
method Discrete Markov Probabilistic Models (DMPMs) operating in bit space with time-reversal process.
result Sharp convergence bounds established under minimal assumptions, competitive performance in discrete data generation.
Introduces Star-Shaped DDPMs for non-Gaussian distributions.
problem Difficulties in defining DDPMs for non-Gaussian distributions.
method Star-shaped diffusion process, duality with specific Markovian diffusions, efficient algorithms.
result SS-DDPMs can model distributions like Beta, von Mises-Fisher, Dirichlet, Wishart.
The article reviews scoring rules for estimating and evaluating forecasts.
problem Evaluating probabilistic forecasts and estimating probability distributions.
method Mathematical foundations and characterization of scoring rules.
result Important families of scoring rules and their applications in statistics and machine learning.
Deep learning models outperform classical methods in forecasting neural activity.
problem Improving forecasting of neural activity using deep learning models.
method Systematic evaluation of eight probabilistic deep learning models against classical statistical models and baseline methods.
result Several deep learning models consistently outperform classical approaches in forecasting neural activity.
New research challenges the independence assumption in neurosymbolic learning, leading to overconfident predictions and unrepresentable uncertainty.
problem The independence assumption in neurosymbolic learning systems can lead to overconfident predictions and hinder uncertainty quantification.
method The study proves the limitations of the independence assumption and introduces new loss functions that are non-convex and difficult to optimise.
result Neurosymbolic learning systems using the independence assumption are prone to overconfidence and cannot represent uncertainty over multiple valid options.
This study shows how DDPM can be represented by the OU process.
problem Designing optimal noise schedules for DDPM.
method Formal equivalence between DDPM and OU process, heuristic designs based on Fisher Information.
result Fisher-Information-motivated schedule corresponds to cosine noise schedule.
LPF provides formal guarantees for aggregating multi-evidence in probabilistic tasks.
problem Lack of formal guarantees for multi-evidence reasoning in AI.
method LPF uses variational autoencoders and Sum-Product Networks to aggregate evidence items.
result Proves multiple formal guarantees including calibration preservation and error decay.