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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,742 papers · 148 categories

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326395126 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for Probabilistic Backbone

Unified probabilistic gradient boosting for entire conditional distribution modeling.

problem Creating accurate probabilistic forecasts from regression tasks.
method Unified probabilistic gradient boosting framework using XGBoost and LightGBM, modeling conditional moments or CDF via Normalizing Flows.
result Achieves state-of-the-art forecast accuracy.

SPECTRA improves probabilistic energy forecasting by separating trends and uncertainties.

problem Interacting uncertainties from renewable intermittency, demand flexibility, market volatility, and weather impact probabilistic forecasts.
method Adaptive state-space exogenous context and temporal-frequency resolution architecture.
result Achieved best CRPS in 14 out of 18 settings, reducing CRPS by 5.74% and upper-tail quantile risk by 7.27%.

We detect the backbone of the weighted bipartite network of the Japanese credit market relationships. The backbone is detected by adapting a general method used in the investigation of weighted networks. With this approach we detect a backbone that is statistically validated against a null hypothesis of uniform diversi…

2015-11-21abs ↗pdf ↗

Improved community detection in graphs with probabilistic models.

problem Lack of probabilistic formulation and fixed number of communities in GNN-based methods.
method Combines GNNs with amortized clustering for variable numbers of clusters.
result Improved performance on synthetic and real datasets compared to previous methods.

U-Cast simplifies AI weather forecasting with a standard U-Net and efficient training.

problem Complex AI models limit accessibility and cost for weather forecasting.
method Simple U-Net backbone, deterministic pre-training, and probabilistic fine-tuning with Monte Carlo Dropout.
result U-Cast matches or exceeds state-of-the-art models in accuracy while reducing training and inference costs.

Researchers use shape analysis to recover protein structures from Cryo-EM data.

problem Recovering the three-dimensional backbone structure of single polypeptide proteins from noisy tomographic projections.
method Shape analysis and matrix Lie group actions to deform point clouds to match 2D tomography data.
result Optimal deformations are computed to recover the three-dimensional backbone structure of proteins.

A new method scales sparse machine learning to ultra-high dimensional problems.

problem Sparse and interpretable machine learning in ultra-high dimensional data.
method Two-phase approach: backbone set determination followed by reduced problem solving.
result The backbone set contains truly relevant features with high probability.

Deep forecasting models show output heads significantly improve performance on fat-tailed financial returns.

problem Improving deep learning models for forecasting fat-tailed financial returns.
method Comparison of backbone architectures and output heads (point, Gaussian, Gaussian mixture) on S&P 500 monthly log-returns.
result Switching from point to Gaussian heads improves CRPS by about 1.3 percent, and from Gaussian to mixture adds another 2.4 percent.

Generative AI improves surrogate models by blending LF and HF data.

problem Data scarcity between high-fidelity and low-fidelity simulations.
method Probabilistic multi-fidelity surrogate framework using generative transfer learning.
result The model achieves HF accuracy with fewer HF evaluations.

A new diffusion model generates novel protein backbones without relying on pretrained networks.

problem Generating novel protein backbones without relying on pretrained networks.
method Developed a SE(3) invariant diffusion model on multiple frames, called FrameDiff.
result Generated designable protein monomers up to 500 amino acids without pretrained networks.

Generative model designs highly designable proteins using geometric algebra.

problem Creating proteins with diverse and statistically accurate secondary structures.
method Introduced a geometric algebra flow matching model (FrameFlow) with Clifford Frame Attention (CFA) for protein backbone design.
result Achieved high designability, diversity, and novelty in protein backbone sampling.

Bayesian Transformer improves probabilistic load forecasting with calibrated uncertainty estimates.

problem Overconfident point predictions from deep learning models fail under extreme weather distributional shifts.
method Integrates three uncertainty mechanisms: MC Dropout, variational layers, and stochastic attention.
result Achieves state-of-the-art performance with CRPS of 0.0289 and 90% PICP across various horizons.

Unified normative modeling for neuroimaging phenotypes using denoising diffusion models.

problem Discarding multivariate dependence in neuroimaging pipelines.
method Denoising diffusion probabilistic models (DDPMs) with FiLM and SAINT backbones.
result Unified multivariate normative modeling with better calibration and dependence preservation.

Deep learning predicts protein structures accurately.

problem Predicting the 3D structure of proteins from amino acid sequences.
method Embeddings and deep learning models for backbone atom distance matrices and torsion angles.
result Competitive results in CASP13 and CASP12, surpassing previous winners.

RPN 2 improves function learning by modeling data interdependence.

problem Invalid assumption of input data independence leads to performance degradation.
method Integrates data and structural interdependence functions into RPN 2's architecture.
result Significantly improves learning performance and expands unifying potential.

MTL-NAS combines NAS with GP-MTL for task-agnostic multi-task learning.

problem Designing architectures for diverse tasks with varying priors.
method Disentangled GP-MTL networks, hierarchical feature sharing, and gradient-based search.
result General-purpose model trained once can adapt to multiple tasks.

Few-step protein backbone generators reduce sampling time by over 20x.

problem Computational bottleneck in diffusion-based protein generation models.
method Score distillation adapted for protein backbone generation, combined with inference time noise modulation.
result Significant reduction in sampling time (20+ fold) while maintaining comparable performance.

A new measure PC allows fair comparison of AIWP and NWP models.

problem Fair comparison of AIWP and NWP model outputs.
method Postprocessing deterministic model outputs with isotonic distributional regression (IDR) and calculating PC as mean CRPS of postprocessed forecasts.
result The GraphCast model outperforms the ECMWF HRES model in WeatherBench 2 data.

We construct a path integral based on the coupling of the Liouville action and the Mabuchi K-energy on a one-dimensional complex manifold. To the best of our knowledge this is the first rigorous construction of such an object and this is done by means of probabilistic tools. Both functionals play an important role resp…

2018-07-04abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper tackles fairness issues in GNNs by proposing ELEGANT for certification.

problem Fairness issues in GNN predictions due to graph data perturbations.
method Proposes ELEGANT framework for certifying fairness of any GNN without assumptions or re-training.
result The fairness of any GNN backbone is impossible to be corrupted under certain perturbation budgets.

An analysis of the Japanese credit market in 2004 between banks and quoted firms is done in this paper using the tools of the networks theory. It can be pointed out that: (i) a backbone of the credit channel emerges, where some links play a crucial role; (ii) big banks privilege long-term contracts; the "minimal spanni…

2009-01-16abs ↗pdf ↗

This review analyzes deep learning methods for electricity price forecasting across different markets.

problem Insufficient analysis of deep learning methods in electricity price forecasting.
method Unified taxonomy of deep learning components, analysis of trends across markets.
result Shift toward probabilistic, microstructure-centric, and market-aware designs.

SPIRE enables efficient federated learning for diffusion models by separating client-specific embeddings from a shared backbone.

problem Large diffusion models are impractical for federated learning due to their size.
method SPIRE separates the network into a global backbone and client-specific embeddings, enabling efficient finetuning.
result SPIRE achieves parameter-efficient finetuning, updating only a small fraction of weights.

A chord diagram consists of a circle, called the backbone, with line segments, called chords, whose endpoints are attached to distinct points on the circle. The genus of a chord diagram is the genus of the orientable surface obtained by thickening the backbone to an annulus and attaching bands to the inner boundary cir…

2014-10-22abs ↗pdf ↗

Reinforcement Patching optimizes dynamic sequence patching for efficient time series forecasting.

problem Efficiently learning data-adaptive representations for long-horizon sequence data, especially continuous sequences.
method Reinforcement Patching (ReinPatch) uses reinforcement learning to optimize dynamic patching policies and sequence backbones.
result ReinPatch achieves compelling performance in time-series forecasting compared to state-of-the-art methods.

Deep learning is currently the subject of intensive study. However, fundamental concepts such as representations are not formally defined -- researchers "know them when they see them" -- and there is no common language for describing and analyzing algorithms. This essay proposes an abstract framework that identifies th…

2015-09-29abs ↗pdf ↗

A Hilbert space embedding of a distribution---in short, a kernel mean embedding---has recently emerged as a powerful tool for machine learning and inference. The basic idea behind this framework is to map distributions into a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) in which the whole arsenal of kernel methods can be ex…

2016-05-31abs ↗pdf ↗

BiTAT improves neural network quantization for edge devices by focusing on weight dependencies and disentangling them.

problem Performance degradation of compact neural networks under extreme quantization.
method Task-dependent Aggregated Transformation (BiTAT) method that orthonormalizes weights and progressively quantizes them.
result BiTAT effectively preserves model performance on ImageNet and CIFAR-100 with compact backbones.

AugMask trains diffusion models on incomplete tabular data by augmenting missing values and applying denoising supervision.

problem Training diffusion models on incomplete tabular data with missing values.
method AugMask uses stochastic augmentation and denoising supervision to adapt diffusion models to incomplete data.
result AugMask enables diffusion-based tabular generators to outperform specialized missing-aware baselines across various datasets and missingness regimes.

GAPA method provides efficient uncertainty quantification for pretrained networks.

problem Reliable uncertainty estimates for pretrained models are challenging.
method Post-hoc Gaussian Process Activations (GAPA) method that shifts Bayesian modeling from weights to activations.
result GAPA method provides efficient uncertainty quantification without altering the backbone's predictions.

LDA improves image classification accuracy with fewer features.

problem Fine-grained image classification with pretrained features.
method Supervised dimensionality reduction with LDA before linear probing.
result LDA improves accuracy over full features in 11 out of 12 configurations.

Forecasting the future traffic flow distribution in an area is an important issue for traffic management in an intelligent transportation system. The key challenge of traffic prediction is to capture spatial and temporal relations between future traffic flows and historical traffic due to highly dynamical patterns of h…

2019-04-12abs ↗pdf ↗

Optimizes neural networks' last layer with closed-form solutions.

problem Optimizing neural networks' last layer with stochastic gradient descent.
method Adapting closed-form last layer optimization for stochastic gradient descent, alternating between backbone and last layer updates.
result The method converges to optimal solutions and outperforms standard SGD and Adam in regression tasks.

Paper proposes a method to improve MCMC sampling for energy-based models.

problem MCMC sampling of energy-based models is often not mixing in high-dimensional data.
method Proposes using a flow-based model as a backbone to correct the energy-based model, enabling mixing in latent space.
result MCMC sampling of the corrected EBM in the latent space mixes well and traverses modes in the data space.

We present a methodology to extract the backbone of complex networks based on the weight and direction of links, as well as on nontopological properties of nodes. We show how the methodology can be applied in general to networks in which mass or energy is flowing along the links. In particular, the procedure enables us…

2009-02-05abs ↗pdf ↗